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Ron Jeremy posted:Way to say this now, but I said in 2004 obama was going to be the next president after his speech. There's no one with that kind of star power for either team this election. Much of the GOP base will tell you that it's Cruz.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:18
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Walker is entirely a creation of the corporate wing of the Republican Party, and will receive much of their support during the primary. So he is definitely a contender.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:20
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I just don't get how the Tea Party crazies can help push a resurgence of Republican dominance in like every state legislature, governorship, and Congress, but all that can be completely discounted when it comes to the Presidential race. Feels like we're underestimating the opposition here.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:20
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site posted:I just don't get how the Tea Party crazies can help push a resurgence of Republican dominance in like every state legislature, governorship, and Congress, but all that can be completely discounted when it comes to the Presidential race.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:22
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JT Jag posted:The presidential election can't be gerrymandered.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:23
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JT Jag posted:Walker is entirely a creation of the corporate wing of the Republican Party, and will receive much of their support during the primary. So he is definitely a contender. He's just sooooooo completely uncharismatic and I'm not convinced he's combative or sharp enough to stand out or up to the bomb throwers he's facing.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:24
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JT Jag posted:The presidential election can't be gerrymandered. Not that it hasn't been tried. And at least one state is still trying! I think.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:24
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Karnegal posted:Is the any precedent in recent election cycles for a candidate giving the finger to the establishment and running far left/right of the base? It seems like Cruz's only real prayer outside of an early Santorum-like win is for Bush and Walker to implode. Didn't win, but he got to speak at the convention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iO5_1ps5CAc
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Apr 10, 2015 21:25
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site posted:Can you really attribute every single R win to gerrymandering though? e: Also voter suppression and maybe a touch of voter fraud, both things they can do during a presidential election, but I doubt are enough on their own. JT Jag fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Apr 10, 2015 |
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Apr 10, 2015 21:26
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JT Jag posted:Walker is entirely a creation of the corporate wing of the Republican Party, and will receive much of their support during the primary. So he is definitely a contender. And this is what scares me about Walker, he's essentially Reagan v2.0. ReidRansom posted:He's just sooooooo completely uncharismatic and I'm not convinced he's combative or sharp enough to stand out or up to the bomb throwers he's facing. In 6 years he will have almost totally dismantled one of the bluest and union friendly states in the union in which he has won 3 elections (2 actual ones and 1 recall). He may not have Reagan or Obama levels of charm but he has a massive amount of money supporting him and has a proven record when it comes to winning elections.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:36
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site posted:Can you really attribute every single R win to gerrymandering though? Most of the stuff you listed I would attribute to the abysmal turnout by Democrats in off-year elections, especially in 2010 when the Republicans got to be in charge of redistricting. For example look at Michigan's insane tea party legislature and then compare it to how they vote solid blue in the presidential race, it's a totally different ballgame.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:42
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A Winner is Jew posted:And this is what scares me about Walker, he's essentially Reagan v2.0. Remember, this is a man who idolizes Reagan to an uncomfortable degree: he and his wife got married on Reagan's birthday and celebrates every year by eating red, white, and blue jelly beans. He's not only an empty suit, he's a loony as well.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:44
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MaxxBot posted:Most of the stuff you listed I would attribute to the abysmal turnout by Democrats in off-year elections, especially in 2010 when the Republicans got to be in charge of redistricting. For example look at Michigan's insane tea party legislature and then compare it to how they vote solid blue in the general, it's a totally different ballgame. I wouldn't blame turnout very much "This article about Michigan in 2014 posted:State House: 1,536,711 (51.2%) total votes cast for state House Democratic candidates that resulted in 47 Democratic House seats (43%)
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Apr 10, 2015 21:44
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site posted:I just don't get how the Tea Party crazies can help push a resurgence of Republican dominance in like every state legislature, governorship, and Congress, but all that can be completely discounted when it comes to the Presidential race. I thought it was widely accepted that the Tea Party had reached their peak(nationally) a few years back and have had a precipitous decline since? Either way if the conservatives I know are any indication no one likes Cruz. They all either prefer Jeb, Rand, or Rubio.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:49
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I wish I had your guys' confidence :/Relentlessboredomm posted:Either way if the conservatives I know are any indication no one likes Cruz. They all either prefer Jeb, Rand, or Rubio. site fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Apr 10, 2015 |
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Apr 10, 2015 21:52
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Relentlessboredomm posted:I thought it was widely accepted that the Tea Party had reached their peak(nationally) a few years back and have had a precipitous decline since? Either way if the conservatives I know are any indication no one likes Cruz. They all either prefer Jeb, Rand, or Rubio. Now that they've been loving up the plans of the establishment republicans, the people who put them in the spotlight in the first place are trying to take them out of it. How "powerful" they seem in the media is largely a function of what would be the most useful to the establishment, so at the start it was completely 100% astroturf but they made it seem like a big movement. I wouldn't be surprised if it was bigger now than it's been, but since they've been causing problems now, the establishment wants to marginalize them more, so the narrative they're trying to push is that they aren't as popular as they were before, I think. Either way it's hard to pin down numbers for sure. Try to watch out for narrative and framing.
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Apr 10, 2015 21:53
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MaxxBot posted:Most of the stuff you listed I would attribute to the abysmal turnout by Democrats in off-year elections, especially in 2010 when the Republicans got to be in charge of redistricting. For example look at Michigan's insane tea party legislature and then compare it to how they vote solid blue in the presidential race, it's a totally different ballgame. You're assuming national priorities are necessarily in line with local/state priorities. The mantra in Michigan has been "gently caress Detroit" for decades, and the reasons behind that (racism) don't necessarily apply when voting on a national level. For another example, look at Massachusetts - it's not gerrymandering that gives them Republican governors.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:01
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Apr 10, 2015 22:08
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fade5 posted:TL;DR: I've already squashed any potential qualms with Hillary because I can already see the "bad future" we're headed for without her at the helm, and holy poo poo it is bad. Then you'll get to see the true power of 21st century American conservatism in all of its terrible glory. Literally the only speed bump that must be overcome to make this a reality is Hillary Clinton. Good thing she's the inevitable candidate and certain to win. JT Jag posted:Republicans have been saying that they lost because their candidate wasn't vocally conservative enough since 2008. Nominating Ted Cruz and not putting a filter on the things he says during the general would be a hell of a way to test that theory. That would be my dream nomination as of now, unless someone becomes simultaneously more crazy and more electable. We totally need a test of the "not conservative enough" theory in all its loving ridiculousness. I will be genuinely disappointed if (when?) they go with Jeb. I'm not sure if it would be easier or harder to convince millennials to vote for him or for one of the zanies as an ironic joke vote in swing states. What do you think?
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Apr 10, 2015 22:09
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http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2015/04/10/grilled-cheese-lovers-have-more-sex-study-says/ quote:Grilled cheese lovers have more sex, study says
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Apr 10, 2015 22:18
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A Winner is Jew posted:And this is what scares me about Walker, he's essentially Reagan v2.0. Yeah, Cruz is an intelligent and charismatic bomb-thrower that excites the base but has made so many enemies already that few of his colleagues would piss on him if he was fully engulfed. Walker on the other hand is a dull, undereducated, sleepy-eyed sack of flour that does what he's told by his backers and does it ruthlessly. He's a stooge that will sign whatever the plutocrat wing of the GOP puts in front of him, and that's exactly what they want in a candidate. That being the case, the amount of money that will be dumped at his feet once he declares will be staggering.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:35
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Certainly would be shocking for the Republicans to nominate an intellectually incurious buffoon whose only qualification is his total capitulation to business interests.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:43
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site posted:This part I always like to hear though. I'm not close to any Republicans so i don't get their side that often besides what I get here. Well, just grow up in FL and then join the military and you too can be awash in a sea of conservative friends/former co workers. All the conservatives I know are split by age. The older ones prefer either Bush or Rubio and think Cruz is a loud mouthed rear end in a top hat with zero experience. The younger ones all lean hard for Rand and are relatively ok with Rubio because they think he can win. They all seem to find Cruz incredibly irritating and out of touch. That said, I don't know many religious types so everyone I know make up the base of general election conservatives and I've never heard any of them complain that someone isn't conservative enough outside of Cristie.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:45
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Joementum posted:Certainly would be shocking for the Republicans to nominate an intellectually incurious buffoon whose only qualification is his total capitulation to business interests. ...but enough about Dukakis.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:50
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Relentlessboredomm posted:Well, just grow up in FL and then join the military and you too can be awash in a sea of conservative friends/former co workers.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:53
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My Imaginary GF posted:...but enough about Dukakis. $20 million to beat someone sitting on the county board of commissioners.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:58
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paranoid randroid posted:$20 million to beat someone sitting on the county board of commissioners. $20 million to purchase a seat on Hillary's cabinet.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:59
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My Imaginary GF posted:$20 million to purchase a seat on Hillary's cabinet.
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Apr 10, 2015 23:00
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The man who cost more to get over the finish line than the entire LA mayoral race is definitely a guy who has some poo poo-hot ideas to bring to the table.
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Apr 10, 2015 23:01
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JT Jag posted:Jeb and Rubio support is inflated in Florida compared to the rest of the country for obvious reasons, I'm curious to see how an average conservative in Florida's perspective on the candidates compares to one from, say, Missouri. That's a good point but all the military conservative types I know feel about the same. If anything FL natives are less than thrilled about Jeb. My dad talks about Jeb the way a lot of the left talks about Hilary, it's a sort of grin and bear it attitude. Although I suppose the longer Rick Scott runs FL the better Jeb looks in comparison. Either way I'm ready for this clowncar to start moving.
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Apr 10, 2015 23:02
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Apr 10, 2015 23:04
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Post/avatar combo of the thread
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Apr 10, 2015 23:05
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I don't know why people are so quick to dismiss Walker for being a clown. Bush was a clown and the voters elected him twice (or once depending on how you're counting). In any case, being stooge isn't enough to stop you from getting a party nomination if you have money and support. I do think that Hillary would eat Walker alive in a debate, but part of that is because she isn't obligated to parrot party lines. I'm not saying that the other republicans can't put out effective attacks on Walker, but it's harder to call him out on dumb poo poo when you support the same dumb poo poo. Attacking his credentials (didn't finish college, no foreign cred) could be a tactic, but I'm not 100% sure how much the portion of the base he's catering to actually gives a poo poo about those things vs. look at me gently caress unions over - I hate big government! I think his advantage in the primary is that he is vanilla as gently caress and isn't named Bush. That's probably more of a liability in the general, but if the GOP was interested in the general they probably shouldn't have put themselves in the position of catering to the most extreme elements of their party.
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Apr 10, 2015 23:45
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Karnegal posted:I don't know why people are so quick to dismiss Walker for being a clown. Bush was a clown and the voters elected him twice (or once depending on how you're counting). In any case, being stooge isn't enough to stop you from getting a party nomination if you have money and support. He's also only ever been on the public payroll ever since dropping out of college. Not sure how well that would go over with the GOP crowd.
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Apr 10, 2015 23:49
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:He's also only ever been on the public payroll ever since dropping out of college. Not sure how well that would go over with the GOP crowd. Yeah, but he's been fighting the good fight in service of his country by trying to take down big government from the inside 
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Apr 10, 2015 23:51
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:He's also only ever been on the public payroll ever since dropping out of college. Not sure how well that would go over with the GOP crowd. Shall we ask 2012 Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan?
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Apr 10, 2015 23:56
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Joementum posted:Shall we ask 2012 Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan?
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Apr 11, 2015 00:17
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site posted:Has Ryan been ostracized by the party? He's the House Ways and Means Chairman, so, no.
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Apr 11, 2015 00:19
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Joementum posted:He's the House Ways and Means Chairman, so, no. The worst punishment of all: having to do actual work in Congress
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Apr 11, 2015 00:21
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My Imaginary GF posted:The worst punishment of all: having to do actual work in Congress He's a wonk, you know. He's very wonky. Always thinking, that one.
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Apr 11, 2015 00:24
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