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Mightypeon posted:This is harsh realpolitk. They do matter as long as they control their own military forces, their own goverment, as long as they write their own laws and as long as they negotiate on their own behalf. Ukraine fullfills none of these criteria now, which is why they dont matter very much. If we are playing realism, then we must also consider that the only appropriate response is to crush Russia with a jackbooted foot and ensure that for the next ten generations any Russian with ideas above his station immediately whimpers in recollection of the suffering his pathetic little country suffered the last time it thought it was anything more than a glorified gas station. :just sayin: Realism cuts both ways. Or we could act as civilized nations, and demand that Russia play as a civilized nation also.
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Apr 11, 2015 16:16
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Mightypeon posted:Brush up your geography skills a bit? Okay, amend my statement to "neighbors that are weaker than Russia." Like any bully, they don't mess with anyone their own size or larger. Mightypeon posted:Oh, do you know what would happen if Assad falls? The already very factious FSA splits completely, since hating assad is the only thing keeping them together anyway. IS gobbles them up one by one, the christians are driven to Lebanon, the Alawis get genocided and you get IS with a capital in Damascus. Maybe. But then, if Assad wasn't such a brutal shithead, or if he had collapsed outright earlier in the war when his forces were on the retreat, ISIS might not have become such a problem anyway.
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Apr 11, 2015 16:16
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StandardVC10 posted:Maybe. But then, if Assad wasn't such a brutal shithead, or if he had collapsed outright earlier in the war when his forces were on the retreat, ISIS might not have become such a problem anyway. Not necessarily. Taking down Gadaffi quickly didn't prevent what's happened in Syria from occurring in Libya.
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Apr 11, 2015 16:38
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cloudchamber posted:Not necessarily. Taking down Gadaffi quickly didn't prevent what's happened in Syria from occurring in Libya. In terms of body count and amount of destruction, Syria has to be in the lead, at least for the time being. But you raise a valid point.
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Apr 11, 2015 16:40
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cloudchamber posted:Not necessarily. Taking down Gadaffi quickly didn't prevent what's happened in Syria from occurring in Libya. The situations in those countries are slightly different.
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Apr 11, 2015 16:40
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Syria is incredibly heterogenous in terms of ethnicity and religion, Lybia much less so. In addition, Lybia has far more docile neighbours, and also isnt bordering a country with its own civil war. Once it blew up there were no good options. Some kind of Lebanon like proportional system would /mayhave been possible, and is actually something that Russia seeks to achieve. If you think that propping up Assads regime forever is what the Russians see as their endgame you are wrong. Demanding that "Assad must go" before he actually started to commit large scale massacres (which incidently provided him an extra incentive to do massacres, since the USA is out of for his anyway, so why not reduce the odds of US intervention by murdering their proxys?) killed that solution. Putting Assad on a Jet to somewhere else can happen after the Alawites ditch him and his family as a result of negotiations, it cannot happen as a precondition since couping Assad now means that the Alawis compeltely open themselfs to be genocided in the meantime. That is not something one can demand of them. US "diplomacy" in Syria was basically the demand that Assad should commit suicide, and the Alawis would be, best case, second class citizens forever. One should add that Assad (this is in flux) is something between an autocratic leader, a figurehead and a "consensus candidate" of several competing interests in the Syrian Security apparate as well as within the various business groupings. Couping him, even for the Alawites, is far easier said then done. Couping him while even the "democratic" opposition is in a "Christians to Tripolis, Alawis to the grave" mood is well, a tall order. He also isnt actually lying when he says that he didnt give the order to shoot unarmed people at daraa btw. security forces in Syria dont really need orders to murder people. Getting rid of Assad would not make the security services less murderous, and if those would be replaced with Sunni security apparates they would just switch to murdering different groups of people.If you cleasne the sercuity apparate, well, congratulations, houndres of thousands harsh people with lots of semi military and clandestine experience are now out of a job. Wonder how this is going to end? Now, if the US had actually negotiated, prehaps offered some security guarantees, and went for a Lebanon style solution (which is something parts of the Alawis would have agreed too), major bloodshed may have been avoided. Insisting on "the winner takes it all" and then effectively outsourcing their policy preferences for post Assad Syria to Saudi Arabia ruled that out. Perhaps one can get some kind of solution, once Saudi Arabia is sufficiently distracted by having its dick deeply immersed in the Yemeni hornets nest. Russia is distracted in Ukraine, which should increase compromise incentives, as is the US. This may be complicated by the fact that the US may opt to spoil a solution in order to either troll Russia or to placate Saudi Arabia or Israel. A possible solution is some kind of Lebanon like compromise proposed by Jordania (who could act as some kind of interlocutor, since they are probably the least hated country in the area right now). Mightypeon fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Apr 11, 2015 |
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Apr 11, 2015 17:57
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Mightypeon posted:Syria is incredibly heterogenous in terms of ethnicity and religion, Lybia much less so. In addition, Lybia has far more docile neighbours, and also isnt bordering a country with its own civil war. You say all this as if you know for a fact that those would have been the outcomes. When in reality everything you just typed in that post is all pure conjecture on your part. The facts are protesters were being killed by Assad's security forces, his armed forces indiscriminately bomb the hell out of any target regardless of civilians being present, his actions directly lead to the formation, then fracturing into various factions, of militias, these are then also directly linked to the rise of extremists flooding in and the formation of ISIS. Him staying in power and being propped up by Putin's policies has done far more damage to the stability of that region than the alternative of him having been quickly deposed. Agrajag fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Apr 11, 2015 |
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Apr 11, 2015 18:08
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Dolash posted:It's kind of embarrassing when Russian supporters claim the backing of China, India and Brazil, when at best those countries are egging Russia on a little to pit them and the U.S. against each other and clearly have no significant agreement with Russia's actions. If push came to shove not one of them would lift a finger or cry a tear. Literally the reason that this is all happening is because Putin and Russia at large have bought into the "US decline, rise of the BRICS" narrative. Lots of people are firm believers in the fantasy of a multipolar world where western influence is limited to Europe and North America and this is one of the reasons the "spheres of influence" argument is so often trotted out by Putin apologists. They're living in a world that hasn't existed since 1990.
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Apr 11, 2015 18:30
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NEED TOILET PAPER posted:gently caress Germany, Romania should be leading the EU. Judging from the absolutely staggering amount of Romanian beggars in northern Europe, I'm thinking maybe they should focus on getting their own house in order first. They've been doing good (well, better, at least), don't get me wrong, but they've got a ways to go yet. Cake Smashing Boob fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Apr 11, 2015 |
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Apr 11, 2015 18:48
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Agrajag posted:You say all this as if you know for a fact that those would have been the outcomes. When in reality everything you just typed in that post is all pure conjecture on your part. And what is your conjecture? Peace shunshine and happiyness happens when a magical fairy waves Assad away? Given economic and and agricultural considerations, the competition for resources is such that the only way to fed Syria is sustained foreign aid, and to get sustained foreign aid you would need some Lebanon type settlement where various foreign backers hopefully compete by being more benovelent. If you want some literature suggestions: "Russia and the arabs" by Yegenei Primakov "Der Fluch der Bösen Tat" by Peter Scholl Latour A bit more pro Western: http://www.understandingwar.org/report/assad-regime And a general introduction: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/12/understanding-syria-from-pre-civil-war-to-post-assad/281989/ even though he imho mischarcterizes the Alawis a bit. I dont know any Alawi who is formally trained/"enlightened" in their actually quite secret religious doctrine, but the guys I know do not see themselfs as "chosen people" by any means. Concering Regime change: http://www.amazon.com/Humpty-Dumpty-Fate-Regime-Change/dp/0982934033
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Apr 11, 2015 18:51
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Mightypeon posted:And what is your conjecture? Peace shunshine and happiyness happens when a magical fairy waves Assad away? Given economic and and agricultural considerations, the competition for resources is such that the only way to fed Syria is sustained foreign aid, and to get sustained foreign aid you would need some Lebanon type settlement where various foreign backers hopefully compete by being more benovelent. Nah, Russia the magical fairy is more your thing.
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Apr 11, 2015 18:55
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StandardVC10 posted:So maybe they shot down a civilian airliner, just a small price to pay to keep from being influenced! It's an interesting proposal, to deny any foreign influence to countries that have shot down a civilian airliner, but I'm not sure that the USA would agree. (Or many others.) Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Apr 11, 2015 |
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Apr 11, 2015 19:48
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Dolash posted:It's kind of embarrassing when Russian supporters claim the backing of China, India and Brazil, when at best those countries are egging Russia on a little to pit them and the U.S. against each other and clearly have no significant agreement with Russia's actions. If push came to shove not one of them would lift a finger or cry a tear. They mistake a wall of text with a contrary opinion as something automatically valuable. In reality it is always the same thing written over and over: Won't anyone think of Russia's feelings? Again and again and again and again and again. Every single loving post deconstructs to that.
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Apr 11, 2015 20:26
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Regarde Aduck posted:They mistake a wall of text with a contrary opinion as something automatically valuable. In reality it is always the same thing written over and over: Won't anyone think of Russia's feelings? NATO bad, Russia stronk. ~ desu
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Apr 11, 2015 22:19
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Fojar38 posted:Literally the reason that this is all happening is because Putin and Russia at large have bought into the "US decline, rise of the BRICS" narrative. Lots of people are firm believers in the fantasy of a multipolar world where western influence is limited to Europe and North America and this is one of the reasons the "spheres of influence" argument is so often trotted out by Putin apologists. They're living in a world that hasn't existed since 1990. *rips the last page out of The History of Mankind and waves it about* THIS PAGE ALONE DESCRIBES THE ONLY POSSIBLE WORLD!
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Apr 11, 2015 22:35
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Cat Mattress posted:It's an interesting proposal, to deny any foreign influence to countries that have shot down a civilian airliner, but I'm not sure that the USA would agree. (Or many others.) It's true, this sort of tragedy has happened before. But I think it illustrates why Russia isn't a country that can be trusted with international influence. Russia is supplying highly destructive surface to air missiles directly from its own inventories to paramilitary separatists who are deliberately in a hazy zone of near-zero official accountability for their actions, so that Russia doesn't have to admit that it is at war and sending its young men to die. You might say that the West does many of the same things sometimes, and you might be right, but that doesn't make it okay for anyone.
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Apr 11, 2015 23:26
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And at least the US admitted it was responsible for the Iranian airliner shootdown and paid compensation to the victims' families (even if it never formally apologized or held any of the actual people involved accountable), rather than craft some conspiracy theory around it.
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Apr 11, 2015 23:32
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Flocons de Jambon posted:*rips the last page out of The History of Mankind and waves it about* I didn't say a multipolar world was impossible, I said it doesn't exist right now.
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Apr 12, 2015 00:38
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Russia needs a sphere of influence because if you don't have a sphere of influence beyond your borders you will be hosed over by those who do. For example: Russia invading Ukraine. I'm a realist. 
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Apr 12, 2015 02:45
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So what's with Ukraine's dumb symbol ban? My grandpa and his veterans org is really mad/confused/sad that suddenly all their medals and monuments are illegal or some poo poo now???
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Apr 12, 2015 03:19
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Dolash posted:It's kind of embarrassing when Russian supporters claim the backing of China, India and Brazil, when at best those countries are egging Russia on a little to pit them and the U.S. against each other and clearly have no significant agreement with Russia's actions. If push came to shove not one of them would lift a finger or cry a tear. I'd go even further and say if push came to shove, they'd likely would side with the U.S.. American dollars and trade are worth far more than whatever Russia can offer. poo poo, if there was some open collapse and intervention, China would be more than happy to take half of Russia and really reduce Russia to a regional power status - forever.
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Apr 12, 2015 03:20
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Intelligence sources are saying that a Russian attack may come after their Easter (Sunday the 12th). Here's to hoping they're wrong?
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Apr 12, 2015 03:26
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Baronjutter posted:So what's with Ukraine's dumb symbol ban? My grandpa and his veterans org is really mad/confused/sad that suddenly all their medals and monuments are illegal or some poo poo now??? Poland has the same law. It just means you can't have a building with a hammer and sickle on it, as far as I know medals and war monuments wont be affected. The law also applies for Nazi imagery. I have no idea what that will mean for Azov. ass struggle fucked around with this message at 03:35 on Apr 12, 2015 |
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Apr 12, 2015 03:26
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Young Freud posted:I'd go even further and say if push came to shove, they'd likely would side with the U.S.. American dollars and trade are worth far more than whatever Russia can offer. poo poo, if there was some open collapse and intervention, China would be more than happy to take half of Russia and really reduce Russia to a regional power status - forever. I like your style.
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Apr 12, 2015 03:31
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Intelligence sources are saying that a Russian attack may come after their Easter (Sunday the 12th). Here's to hoping they're wrong?
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Apr 12, 2015 03:35
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Young Freud posted:I'd go even further and say if push came to shove, they'd likely would side with the U.S.. American dollars and trade are worth far more than whatever Russia can offer. poo poo, if there was some open collapse and intervention, China would be more than happy to take half of Russia and really reduce Russia to a regional power status - forever. China has its own problems that preclude any sort of muscling in on Russia physically. But you're correct that if push came to shove and China had to choose between Russia and America they'd pick America in a heartbeat.
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Apr 12, 2015 04:17
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"Polite Men", the Russian military that appeared in Crimea and held the government at gun point to persuade them to hold a referendum inspired a whole new line of fashion.quote:In Russia, the term “polite people” has lately taken on an entirely different meaning than we’re familiar with, being used to refer to the masked, heavily armed soldiers who occupied and blockaded Crimea.         http://mercedesbenzfashionweek.ru/ru/gallery/480
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Apr 12, 2015 04:25
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Irony is dead and we've pissed on its corpse.
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Apr 12, 2015 04:34
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My eyes rolled so far back I gave myself a seizure.
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Apr 12, 2015 04:37
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Hugo Boss was busy?
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Apr 12, 2015 04:37
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bearic posted:I've seen that in a few random places on Twitter. Plus, Ukrainian military people (including Tymchuk lol) are saying that's coming, which was repeated by Wes Clark and some other US officials who visited Kyiv recently. I'm skeptical, but with the recent aggressive talk from Zakharchenko, it wouldn't surprise me. Apparently there are a lot of Russian military exercises just across the border right now, too.
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Apr 12, 2015 04:41
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Last time there were a bunch of Russian military exercises the Russian military totally did not enter Ukraine.
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Apr 12, 2015 04:44
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Apparently there are a lot of Russian military exercises just across the border right now, too. Wait wait wait, you're talking a legitimate full on invasion of Ukraine? Rather than a "republic" just breaking the ceasefire and taking Shyrokyne or something? I don't see how that would be beneficially to Russia at all at this point. Why spend months on a hybrid war only to throw out any deniability by launching a full scale invasion? Russian leadership is still rational. ass struggle fucked around with this message at 04:53 on Apr 12, 2015 |
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Apr 12, 2015 04:49
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sparatuvs posted:Wait wait wait, your talking a legit invasion of Ukraine? Rather then a "republic" just breaking the ceasefire and taking Shyrokyne or something? I don't see how that would be beneficially to Russia at all at this point. Why spend months on a hybrid war only to throw out any deniability by launching a full scale invasion? Russian leadership is still rational. Oh I didn't mean they'd actually invade with their forces, I just mean it's easier for tanks to go "missing" when everybody's already at the border doing exercises. Also, another "aid" convoy is heading into Ukraine from Russia.
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Apr 12, 2015 04:52
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:"Polite Men", the Russian military that appeared in Crimea and held the government at gun point to persuade them to hold a referendum inspired a whole new line of fashion. Step 5: acceptance
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Apr 12, 2015 05:09
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Baronjutter posted:So what's with Ukraine's dumb symbol ban? My grandpa and his veterans org is really mad/confused/sad that suddenly all their medals and monuments are illegal or some poo poo now??? Veterans stuff is exempt.
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Apr 12, 2015 05:10
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Oh I didn't mean they'd actually invade with their forces, I just mean it's easier for tanks to go "missing" when everybody's already at the border doing exercises. Also, another "aid" convoy is heading into Ukraine from Russia. I suppose they might underpin the long-awaited assault on Mariupol, to get the "separatist" advance down the Black Sea coast rolling. I'd have to assume taking Mariupol would signal the definitive end to any supposed ceasefire (Debaltsevo should've been the signal, but here we are) and an invasion of Odessa should really get the West off its rear end already, or at least stop pretending like the situation is manageable and under control.
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Apr 12, 2015 05:20
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Dolash posted:I suppose they might underpin the long-awaited assault on Mariupol, to get the "separatist" advance down the Black Sea coast rolling. I'd have to assume taking Mariupol would signal the definitive end to any supposed ceasefire (Debaltsevo should've been the signal, but here we are) and an invasion of Odessa should really get the West off its rear end already, or at least stop pretending like the situation is manageable and under control. I wonder if they'd even bother attacking Mariupol at this point or if they'd just go around it. It seems like it'll be fortified to poo poo.
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Apr 12, 2015 05:28
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OddObserver posted:Veterans stuff is exempt. That's a very considerate move by the government. Now WWII veterans who fought the Nazis and their collaborators won't be jailed by a regime that praises the enemies they fought against. I'm sure they won't be troubled that their icons and symbols will die with them.
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Apr 12, 2015 05:53
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OddObserver posted:Veterans stuff is exempt. My grandpa gets all his news from Russian channels, but he was saying soviet veterans are banned from a bunch of events/parades but the nazi sympathizing partisans are being celebrated as freedom fighters.
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Apr 12, 2015 06:11
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