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I like to imagine it's literally the Dave Chapelle crackhead trading those coal stocks.
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Apr 10, 2015 16:12
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i tend to be sympathetic with mike's points but yeah between gamingo posting about GTATQ and that coal guy about ANR, anyone trading on advice itt can go blow themselves up.
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Apr 10, 2015 16:15
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Arkane's posts are not rigorous fundamental analyses; he doesn't offer good ideas about exit and entry prices, he doesn't try to account for why certain stocks are priced at their current prices as a discrepancy from his own personal valuations, and they aren't the kind of thing that you would pay someone to produce. Also I think Arkane would agree with all these points. Don't agree with you on two of those. I talk about entry prices all the time, which is an inexact science and frustrating due to market randomness, but you can be much more confident on a company being very cheap relative to intrinsic value than you can be sure on when it is accurately priced, which is extremely sensitive to biases and small mistakes in assumptions. I also try to rationalize why I think the prices are discounted, which is the basis of a thesis on why the market has the price wrong. I think you'll find this if you read my posts...except maybe Yahoo, where the market was just completely failing to add up the sum of its parts for no reason at all (and it didn't reflect reality until YHOO released a 10-Q with the updated balance sheet that couldn't be ignored). Exit timing is tricky, no doubt. I don't have a good grasp on that, nor have I read anything that elucidates this inexact science. Personally, I prefer to err on the side of caution both in terms of minimizing risk and also in terms of minimizing opportunity cost (which is to say, finding another opportunity with more expected value). As a general rule, I think the future is largely unknowable, and one should make investments based on the underlying value of the company and a vague spectrum of outcomes for where that company might be in the future, all of which adds up some rough idea of intrinsic value. I also think that the spectrum benefits from being rough as compared to rigid to divorce yourself from biases, assuming you aren't making fundamental mistakes. And rather than try to pinpoint a value, I honestly think that identifying that a company is worth "much higher" than it is currently valued is a perfectly fine assessment. The best methodological method we have found to generate returns is simply buying all of the lowest-trading EV/EBITDA companies regardless of sector. This vastly outperforms S&P. And that is literally nothing more than buying a set of companies that should be "much higher." In fact, now that I am typing that, I think Icahn might have even said that exact quote at some point. Maybe not Icahn, but somebody famous I think.
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Apr 10, 2015 17:25
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Garfu posted:Also I got a tip about BPT, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust . Dividends at 14%. Bought in at 59.19 and it's up to 64.04 at the moment. The guy I spoke to was predicting a return to 80 by the end of the summer. Arkane probably knows a little more about it than I do though, as it's oil related. e: Arkane, is there a free website that can screen for EV/EBITDA? How do you go about looking for tickers with a low ratio?
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Apr 10, 2015 18:17
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Just one more warning, no one should be dumping huge percentages of their cash (at least not a huge percentage that they can't afford to lose) into a single investment no matter how undervalued it looks or how good the argument for it sounds. I've gotten burned many times by something that looks very cheap based on the available information... and it was. But whups, suddenly very bad news is disclosed. Insider trading is still alive and well. Don't even put too much into a single fund. I had one where due to a "coding error" it suddenly nosedived. They liquidated it (taking 4-5 months to get the cash back to us in the spring of 2009 when it would have been really nice to have it invested). I just got a check last week for $35 from the settlement. Probably something like .001 of the amount lost due to the error.
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Apr 10, 2015 18:22
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Saint Fu posted:e: Arkane, is there a free website that can screen for EV/EBITDA? How do you go about looking for tickers with a low ratio? Have you tried StockRover?
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Apr 10, 2015 18:25
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Have you tried StockRover?
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Apr 10, 2015 18:38
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Arkane if you actually have book recommendations would you mind posting them or PMing them?
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Apr 10, 2015 20:02
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Wilhelm posted:Arkane if you actually have book recommendations would you mind posting them or PMing them? On a cell...check out something on YouTube called 5 Good Questions. He interviews authors of (mostly) investment books and asks them about the key topics. Tobias Carlisle probably a decent place to start. Good place to find book recommendations as well. Google Talks also has a few good investment guys who have visited, again Tobias Carlisle a decent place to start. Suffice to say i would recommend Carlisle's two books!
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Apr 10, 2015 20:29
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quote:Picked up some more VUZI @ 5.70. I had some from before the intel buy. They hit 7 shortly after being listed on NASDAQ but sunk to 5.50 the past couple weeks as the deadline for their 2014FY earnings report came close with no word from them (apparently they had to reorganize things for audit purposes due to the uplisting). On Friday they announced the release barely on time (release 31 Mar AH, call 1 Apr) and it's starting to swing back.  Today was a good day.
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Apr 10, 2015 22:22
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mike- posted:You are pretty weird and also if you are judging the soundness of your analysis by the results (rather than how the argument presented in your analysis is actually supported) you will probably never understand why I think all the fundamental analysis you post is superficial and shoddy. What's weird is you claiming good strong fundamental analysis is superior to shoddy or more superficial analysis while acknowledging that it's often not true. How is your research better if it does not correlate with better accuracy or returns? How is it any smarter to invest after doing deeper analysis if it doesn't increase the likelihood of a positive outcome at all?
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Apr 10, 2015 22:59
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tesilential posted:What's weird is you claiming good strong fundamental analysis is superior to shoddy or more superficial analysis while acknowledging that it's often not true. I think the takeaway point here is that you can get very well done, deep analysis and put a shitload of money into something that you think is well researched and it can still end up failing, either based on some unforseen circumstances or something that was missed in the analysis. On the other hand, most people aren't going to drop a huge chunk of their savings into something they found as a free tip on an internet website. So in that sense, shoddy analysis might not be untrue, but you may not be as likely to trust it since it is less rigorous. You might trust a deeper analysis by a professional, but it could in the end be worse for you if you trust it enough to put a lot of money into the investment and it turns out to be wrong or unlucky.
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Apr 11, 2015 00:17
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you can have good results from a bad play and bad results from a good play. hope this helps
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Apr 11, 2015 00:31
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In unrelated news, boring stock GE got less boring today.
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Apr 11, 2015 00:38
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I always thought ge capital was doing well, but I guess not !
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Apr 11, 2015 03:57
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Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.
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Apr 11, 2015 19:35
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mlmp08 posted:In unrelated news, boring stock GE got less boring today. On a positive note I bought $800 of MDR for 4.41 in the morning and sold at 4.98 that afternoon the day prior to my missed GE opportunity. Small beans but I only have a few grand to play with right now. I was wanting to get into MDR back in January at around 2.25 but didn't have any money liquid at the time 
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Apr 12, 2015 00:08
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If there was a "correct" way of securities analysis then everyone would do it and everyone would be right all the time. The concepts of "true" values is an arbitrary concept and prices are so volatile precisely because such concepts cannot be exactly tied down by any one formula. Wall Street is full of professional analysts and fund managers who think they can use some secret formula to gain trading success and their long term records continue to indicate one common truth: everyone is just making educated guesses. When you combine everyone's educated guess you get an aggregated price which is usually close to where it should be.
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Apr 12, 2015 00:13
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I do feel like people are unduly harsh to hf managers etc about their returns. Their volatility is really quite low relative to the overall stock market, even if they only lag or match the s and p.
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Apr 12, 2015 01:05
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I don't think that the reasons a hedge fund manager can't beat the the market for their clients are the same reasons an individual investor can't beat the market. First things first - they are taking fees. So they have to beat the market plus fees. If you are your own manager - no fees. Next, the amount of money they have to move creates something akin to financial inertia. If you're managing $1B, your presence is felt. If you're managing $10k you are a ghost. It's harder to maintain returns above the market as the portfolio you own or manage grows.
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Apr 12, 2015 04:17
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District Selectman posted:Next, the amount of money they have to move creates something akin to financial inertia. If you're managing $1B, your presence is felt. If you're managing $10k you are a ghost. It's harder to maintain returns above the market as the portfolio you own or manage grows. On this particular point, very debatable. Obviously depends on what you're trading but even a 10% position is generally bought or sold over a few days. Most decent traders can minimize/eliminate this
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Apr 12, 2015 04:55
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semicolonsrock posted:I do feel like people are unduly harsh to hf managers etc about their returns. Their volatility is really quite low relative to the overall stock market, even if they only lag or match the s and p. quote:Results are in for the seventh year of what’s sometimes called The Million-Dollar Bet—Warren Buffett’s 10-year wager that the S&P 500 would outperform a sampling of hedge funds—and, for now at least, it’s looking like a rout for the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. http://blog.longnow.org/02015/03/13/warren-buffett-maintains-his-lead-in-his-1-million-long-bet/
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Apr 12, 2015 05:05
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I'm not in a position to trade individual stocks but I'm really interested in amazon's breaking out their cloud services numbers. Backend infrastructure to all these new startups seems like the great tollbooth opportunity for the post-pc era and they've got the capital, scale, and leadership to dominate that space.
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Apr 12, 2015 19:04
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Foma posted:http://blog.longnow.org/02015/03/13/warren-buffett-maintains-his-lead-in-his-1-million-long-bet/ Almost by definition over a 7 year period when equities beat everything else, a fund which hedges w other assets won't beat the s and p. Slash the point is that they have lower volatility, which I feel people undervalue. Definitely a good point about size -- it does seem like managing at scale is much harder.
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Apr 13, 2015 00:28
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GE is supposedly going to sell off more assets next week too. My champagne bottle is ready for it to break $30.
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Apr 13, 2015 02:50
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Hey guys, chiming in from the Heng Seng Index. I have no idea what the heck is going on anymore. The stock market here is in a crazy bull frenzy. The HK stock exchange is priced a few weeks ago was $170, and last friday went to 249. Now this morning it shot up to 279. I'm riding up and doing well, but like what you guys say, anything goes up in a bull market. How should I buy put shares (or just don't). really scared of a major crash coming through.
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Apr 13, 2015 05:49
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Shim Howard posted:I'm not in a position to trade individual stocks but I'm really interested in amazon's breaking out their cloud services numbers. Backend infrastructure to all these new startups seems like the great tollbooth opportunity for the post-pc era and they've got the capital, scale, and leadership to dominate that space. Amazon has a lot of things, but free cash flow never seems to be one of them.
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Apr 13, 2015 12:26
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caberham posted:Hey guys, chiming in from the Heng Seng Index. I have no idea what the heck is going on anymore. You buy put contracts, each one representing the right to sell 100 shares of the underlying equity at the strike price at or before expiry (for American style options). You need options permissions with your brokerage. I think the lowest level of permissions allows you to buy contracts. If you're trading with a Chinese brokerage it's possible that this is all completely different.
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Apr 13, 2015 13:24
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No American style options here being a former British colony, so only Euro style 
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Apr 13, 2015 13:32
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It's not a lot different as far as I know. You just can't exercise at any arbitrary time, so what goes into pricing is probably slightly different.
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Apr 13, 2015 13:36
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Even if you can't exercise your options arbitrarily, you can still sell them to someone else and pocket a lot of money in the event of a crash. Also VHSI is probably going to go way up before it comes down, can you do index options? Put trailing stops on all of your open positions so when the bubble bursts you get out near the top.
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Apr 13, 2015 13:59
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semicolonsrock posted:So do you think analysts do good fundamental analysis? Serious q: how are they so off base so often? Because sell-side analysis doesn't have to be correct ever and they get paid regardless. Buy-side is obviously different but why would they post their analysis
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Apr 13, 2015 17:21
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read the intelligent investor, everyone
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Apr 13, 2015 17:26
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intelligent investor good, brendan rodgers bad
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Apr 13, 2015 19:15
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I should have sold my anr at 1.07....
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Apr 13, 2015 23:14
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Gray Matter posted:The day after I sold mine at 25.80 to put the money elsewhere, it closes at 28.51. I am new to / bad at this stock trading thing. If you sold GE prior to the announcement that they were selling off their financial business it's not really your fault... unless of course you had insider information.
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Apr 14, 2015 14:14
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FML I sold out of TDW yesterday as they cratered at the beginning of the day.
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Apr 14, 2015 16:39
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tentish klown posted:FML I sold out of TDW yesterday as they cratered at the beginning of the day. No one ever went broke locking in profit.
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Apr 14, 2015 16:45
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Yup I sold TDW too soon, and apparently for the wrong reason. Mistakes were made.
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Apr 14, 2015 16:55
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Haha I also sold half of my position yesterday.
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Apr 14, 2015 17:01
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