|
Joementum posted:2016 will be about turning out the base and Obama is better than anyone else at that. He'll absolutely support the nominee in her campaign. UltimoDragonQuest posted:
Hmmm... Didn't realise it was so cut and dry. Maybe we only get the snippets over here that highlight the negativity around Obama, as my impression was that he was rather unpopular as a whole - not just with Republicans / The Right.
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 01:58
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 00:48 |
|
|
UltimoDragonQuest posted:Perry was bad in every debate. It wasn't a few mistakes that sunk him. Yeah that's what I'm saying, which is why the fixation on that one mistake always seemed weird.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:00
|
|
|
PotatoManJack posted:Hmmm... Didn't realise it was so cut and dry. Maybe we only get the snippets over here that highlight the negativity around Obama, as my impression was that he was rather unpopular as a whole - not just with Republicans / The Right. He's at about 80% approval with Democrats. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-job-approval-democrats
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:01
|
|
|
In general the outgoing President is an immense asset in campaigning for the next few years. Remember this amazing time not long ago? Just think: if Hillary wins, that could be Obama coming out to upstage her at a speech. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:02
|
|
|
Joementum posted:2016 will be about turning out the base and Obama is better than anyone else at that. He'll absolutely support the nominee in her campaign. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:05
|
|
|
Nietzschean posted:In general the outgoing President is an immense asset in campaigning for the next few years. Remember this amazing time not long ago? This is easily one of my favorite pictures, but I've always wondered what the context of it was.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:09
|
|
|
PotatoManJack posted:A question for the thread about Hillary's campaign. Assuming she gets the democractic ticket, does she have Obama publicly support her or does he do more damage than good with his current level of popularity? Al Gore tried running away from his predecessor and we saw how that worked for him.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:13
|
|
|
PotatoManJack posted:A question for the thread about Hillary's campaign. Assuming she gets the democractic ticket, does she have Obama publicly support her or does he do more damage than good with his current level of popularity? Running away from an incumbent President works approximately never at the federal level. Most voters are going to by default gonna make a Hillary => Democrat => Obama, and if they perceive her running away from that, the Republicans will emphasize it. There's basically no way Clinton can avoid being tied to Obama - she can say she disagrees about X, Y, and Z, but she can't pretend the sitting President isn't of her Party. Joementum posted:He's at about 80% approval with Democrats. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-job-approval-democrats And much of that disapproval is likely of the "Obama's too moderate/conservative" variety - people pissed that he didn't get Single Payer or move America to Full Socialism by Executive Order.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:23
|
|
|
Jackson Taus posted:And much of that disapproval is likely of the "Obama's too moderate/conservative" variety - people pissed that he didn't get Single Payer or move America to Full Socialism by Executive Order. I seriously doubt this. There's probably a significantly higher proportion of people who are reliable democratic voters but don't like Obama because he's black; especially in the South.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:29
|
|
|
Jackson Taus posted:Running away from an incumbent President works approximately never at the federal level. Most voters are going to by default gonna make a Hillary => Democrat => Obama, and if they perceive her running away from that, the Republicans will emphasize it. There's basically no way Clinton can avoid being tied to Obama - she can say she disagrees about X, Y, and Z, but she can't pretend the sitting President isn't of her Party. This is one of the few enduring instances where people actually give respect to the office rather than to the officer. You hear political pundits badmouth opposing presidents as if they were literally Hitler and Satan at the same time, but within the same party there is a huge amount of political capital wrapped up in the outgoing president. There is pretty much no realistic scenario where anyone would ever want to throw the own-party outgoing president under the proverbial bus, because even without what this guy said about opponents seizing on an apparently split house you are basically throwing away a huge contribution to your war chest.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:31
|
|
|
Beamed posted:This is easily one of my favorite pictures, but I've always wondered what the context of it was. Nah, I think it's better without any background at all. Just a perfect little capsule moment.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:38
|
|
|
Series DD Funding posted:Health problems, pill addiction, and, uh..... He said Perry, not Limbaugh. Knew the skit before I even clicked the link. I wish SNL was half this good now. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:40
|
|
|
Evil Fluffy posted:He said Perry, not Limbaugh. Perry was zonked out on pain meds due to back injuries for much, if not all, of the 2012 primary.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 02:45
|
|
|
Sir Tonk posted:http://wonkette.com/582675/carly-fiorina-thinks-hillary-clinton-is-a-lightweight-unlike-carly-fiorina Wow, I mean, good for her for taking it from a firing squad, but one of her arguments basically came down to this: I did pretty good at HP, my decisions were looked back on as the right ones, even though we had massive layoffs the value of the company went up BUT at the same time stock prices didn't matter and we were a victim of the dot com bubble that I simultaneously was not partially responsible for. Also, business has numbers and politics doesn't that's why I'm going into politics with the following numbers: Finishing off by steering her talking points around to propping herself up as the one true champion of women's rights, an issue she'll tackle by making Big Government not so big. So Fiorina is gonna get, what, one, two delegates? If she doesn't withdraw from the race before NH? All she can do is spin circles around her HP tenure and try to out-woman Hillary Clinton.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 03:05
|
|
|
Beamed posted:This is easily one of my favorite pictures, but I've always wondered what the context of it was. I'm sure it's like the "Hillary running her hand through her hair in exhaustion" photo that was a huge deal. And then you find out it was snipped from her literally brushing her hair back and she was clearly not overworked. I'm on my phone or else I'd dig it up.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 03:08
|
|
|
Sooooo, with the primaries actually sorta kinda officially started, is there any chance we could get some thread rules with regards to lesser-of-two-evils talk/democrats-aren't-leftists talk/I'll-vote-for-X-because-of-Y talk/accelerationist talk/JUSTICES-GONNA-DIE talk? Maybe it would be a good set-up where the US Politics thread is actually used to discuss politics, and this one is limited to discussing the election. I don't mean to back-seat mod, and if this doesn't work out I won't get annoying, but at this point in time I do think a lot of people would appreciate such a change...
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 03:41
|
|
|
I move away from the mic to drink in.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:03
|
|
|
AARP LARPer fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Jan 22, 2016 |
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:03
|
|
|
Sir Tonk posted:
How did I get Pat Paulsen?
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:11
|
|
|
I remember back in '12 when a sports psychologist analyzed Perry's debate performance, and said that he had clearly choked - at the exact moment when he looked at Ron Paul.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:14
|
|
|
Do Not Resuscitate posted:During a 2010 press conference, Obama introduced a "surprise guest" and in came Clinton. The picture was snapped at a perfect moment when Obama reached up to scratch himself, and the picture appears to tell a story quite different from reality. I agree that it's a great picture. If Hilary wins then Bill should be wielded like a silver-tongued weapon of mass distraction.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:18
|
|
|
Nonsense posted:I move away from the mic to drink in. Rubio (wants to) Reign
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:31
|
|
|
DNC keeps sending out Hillary emails, which seems a bit weird, I guess?
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:36
|
|
|
WhiskeyJuvenile posted:DNC keeps sending out Hillary emails, which seems a bit weird, I guess? It's the DNC and she's the frontrunner for the nomination, if not the presumptive nominee, if not the presumptive next president.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:37
|
|
|
FAUXTON posted:It's the DNC and she's the frontrunner for the nomination, if not the presumptive nominee, if not the presumptive next president. I mean yeah, but still, a bit déclassé
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:58
|
|
|
I do not pretend to know the inside and out of politics, so explain it to me like I'm foreign or something: Why is Hillary the presumptive next president? What about her, her party, her potential opponents, or whatever else, make this true?
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 04:59
|
|
|
Nietzschean posted:I do not pretend to know the inside and out of politics, so explain it to me like I'm foreign or something: Why is Hillary the presumptive next president? What about her, her party, her potential opponents, or whatever else, make this true? The field is a complete joke for both sides outside of a few names and Hillary is one of those names. Meanwhile the opposing party is still trying to figure out whether Obama is Hitler, Stalin, or Pol Pot and are in a constant one up battle for going further to the right on every issue because tea party.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:01
|
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Sudw4ghVe8 Hillary's new viral video.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:04
|
|
|
Nietzschean posted:I do not pretend to know the inside and out of politics, so explain it to me like I'm foreign or something: Why is Hillary the presumptive next president? What about her, her party, her potential opponents, or whatever else, make this true? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016 These days you can literally ask that question verbally of google and it will tell you.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:04
|
|
|
WhiskeyJuvenile posted:DNC keeps sending out Hillary emails, which seems a bit weird, I guess? "At last, now we can finally quit pretending that our master is that arch-Negrah, Barack Hussein Obama," - Known Floridian debbie wasserman schultz
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:06
|
|
|
FAUXTON posted:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016 Polls this far out are essentially name recognition. Hillary shouldn't be considered the presumptive President by any stretch of the imagination and the premature victory lap the entire party seems poised to take over this gives me this ominous feeling that she's going to blow it.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:08
|
|
|
Dr.Zeppelin posted:Polls this far out are essentially name recognition. Hillary shouldn't be considered the presumptive President by any stretch of the imagination and the premature victory lap the entire party seems poised to take over this gives me this ominous feeling that she's going to blow it. Confidence over consistently good polling isn't a victory lap, even if the GOP is struggling to decide whether they want to send Randpaul or JEB against her. Randpaul or JEB.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:14
|
|
|
Dr.Zeppelin posted:Polls this far out are essentially name recognition. Hillary shouldn't be considered the presumptive President by any stretch of the imagination and the premature victory lap the entire party seems poised to take over this gives me this ominous feeling that she's going to blow it. Name me anyone likely to run that you think actually has a shot at taking her out. "Guys, let's not be too hasty..." is rapidly becoming the "the truth is in the middle" of the 2016 primary discussion. It's something "serious people" say to garner credibility, but that doesn't make it true. This is not 2008. People like to pretend Obama came out of nowhere, but he really didn't. While he was definitely an underdog who rose fast, he was considered a significant contender based on his 2004 convention speech. The people in the party backing his candidacy also pretty much required that people take him seriously. So the onus is on you the provide examples of candidates that a) have support with leaders of important factions in the party and b) can beat Hillary.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:17
|
|
|
ErIog posted:Name me anyone likely to run that you think actually has a shot at taking her out. "Guys, let's not be too hasty..." is rapidly becoming the "the truth is in the middle" of the 2016 primary discussion. It's something "serious people" say to garner credibility, but that doesn't make it true. This is not 2008. People like to pretend Obama came out of nowhere, but he really didn't. While he was definitely an underdog who rose fast, he was considered a significant contender based on his 2004 convention speech. The people in the party backing his candidacy also pretty much required that people take him seriously. No no you see, he's just saying that Hillary of all people shouldn't get too complacent in early frontrunner status, as though she's somehow too stupid to have learned anything from 2008.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:20
|
|
|
Hillary isn't so much a strong candidate so much as her potential opponents are extremely weak. She certainly has the advantage right now but anything can change during the long upcoming campaign and I don't think she is in quite as good a position as people here seem to assume. But she's heading into this with a big advantage right now and we haven't even gotten to the almost certain freakshow clusterfuck the Republican primaries will be. If she had the campaign chops Obama has then I would probably start betting money on her, but she doesn't, not by a long ways. Also from a few pages back but lol at anyone who thinks Ben Carson makes it on the ticket. Someone else said it best that the only way a black man is non threatening to Republicans is in a republican primary hit the nail on the head. Despite his other very serious problems the Republican party will swear fealty to Karl Marx before they vote for a black man. Axetrain fucked around with this message at 05:23 on Apr 14, 2015 |
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:21
|
|
|
I apologize if my question seemed to imply a position on the issue. I am not questioning whether or not Hillary is the presumptive presidential candidate or the presumptive next president. I am asking what makes that so. I am just ignorant of how these things are decided or analyzed and would like to learn about it. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:21
|
|
|
Nonsense posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Sudw4ghVe8 Part 2 is a pro click.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:23
|
|
|
FAUXTON posted:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016 Man when web searches were new and you knew how to use boolean it looked like magic. Now Google is so good that typing in Ask Jeeves style questions is the best way to find what you're looking for, but still makes me feel really stupid for having to do it.
|
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:31
|
|
|
Nietzschean posted:I apologize if my question seemed to imply a position on the issue. I am not questioning whether or not Hillary is the presumptive presidential candidate or the presumptive next president. I am asking what makes that so. Her likely opponent is a toy phone. Her next most likely opponent is a Bush. The next after that is Ted Cruz. She might as well be running against Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, and Sarah Palin. The field against her is so incredibly weak, she would have trouble losing if they found JonBenet Ramsey's bones in her trunk. They've spent the past 20+ years railing against the Clinton name, and any troublesome items from her tenure as SoS have been turned into loving farces by the GOP's incessant witch hunts. Nearly anything they throw at her is going to be drat hard not to just laugh off as "oh there they go again." She's pretty good at campaigning, it's just that 2008 was a (pardon the term) black swan event. Obama approached campaigning from a direction that was light years ahead of anything anyone had even talked about to that point, and he was individually charismatic as all hell on the stump. In 2000(?) she all but chased Giuliani out of the Senate race, so they put up Rick Lazio and she beat him by 12 points overall. She beat him in a bunch of rural counties. FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Apr 14, 2015 |
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 00:48 |
|
|
Nietzschean posted:I apologize if my question seemed to imply a position on the issue. I am not questioning whether or not Hillary is the presumptive presidential candidate or the presumptive next president. I am asking what makes that so. For most of the same reasons as Jeb Bush. Her being married to Bill Clinton gives her access to the network of people that allowed him to get the nomination and win the presidency. She built her own network during her Senate races and her own run for president in '08. On top of this, being a Senator for New York means that she has access to some deep pockets in Wall Street. Then, finally, a significant number of people who worked on Obama's campaigns have taken positions on her campaign. So she has broad support within the Democratic party. She has ready access to significant funding from Wall Street in addition to the less controversial fundraising methods. She is building her campaign around the talent that helped get Obama elected twice. These fundamentals are ridiculously strong, and then, finally, she has no significant challengers to speak of. That's why people are considering her such a shoe-in for the nomination. The only things people really quibble with are: a) whether or not she can win the general b) how gaffe-prone she'll be. Topic A there has really only been the domain of Republican critics of her campaign. I haven't seen a lot of Dems questioning whether or no she can win. Topic B has been a Dem talking point, but it assumes she learned nothing from her '08 campaign. The launching of her campaign this time is already quite different than what she did in '08, and so it appears to me like she's a much better campaigner now. ErIog fucked around with this message at 05:39 on Apr 14, 2015 |
|
#
?
Apr 14, 2015 05:34
|
|