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The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > TRUMP: holy FUCK its november 8th

«‹›14088 »

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

Great in depth interview with the data guy for Obama's campaigns and Ready for Hillary.

quote:

SI: So let�s talk about something I assume super PACs will never do on their own: determine electoral-college strategy for a nominee. You managed the map for Obama in 2012. How early can you start identifying your battleground states?

MS: It�s kind of tough initially when you don�t have the candidates. When we started in 2011, there were six or seven, but you couldn�t really say, based on an Obama vs. Romney poll eighteen months beforehand, what�s a battleground state and what isn�t.

SI: What did that process look like?

MS: Basically the formula we went through was some baseline research, some baseline polling. The president�s positives and negatives, fave/unfave would help inform it, but you�d also look at previous election results, both at the presidential level, and incorporating 2010. Based on that, you�d assign a value to different cohorts�there�s a little art to this.

So, say, African-American women�we expect the president to perform at 94 percent, because if you look at 2008 he got 97, if you look at 2010, the Democratic candidate got 89 percent. Then you just look at the changing demographics: instead of 100,000 African-American women voters in 2008, now there are 112,000. Basically, you go through that line by line, and then you predict how your candidate would perform off a generic Republican candidate. We looked at some places initially, and Florida was just brutal. Colorado was brutal.

SI: �Brutal� means you�re calculating the resources you would have to put in?

MS: That�s exactly right. There are three ways to win an election, or build your list. You can do that through voter registration, you can do that through persuading undecided voters, or you can do it through increasing turnout. With the analytics team, we would go through the math exercise I just talked about and we would say, �right now, if the election were held, we would be at 48.6 percent��you could be that granular. We say �okay, we have a goal of 51 percent, how do we get there?,� with those three mechanisms I mentioned. We had bar graphs, and most of the states were pretty reasonable to get to 51 percent, but Florida looked like the Sears Tower. The resources we would have to spend when we initially looked at Florida�astronomical amounts of money to win that state. That�s, frankly, why it became the 322nd electoral vote[6] and not the 270th. It was never where Ohio was, for example.

Also goes into the tricks used to build the email list and mentions that the typical Obama campaign volunteer was an older, white woman who they're confident they can convince to volunteer for Hillary.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 14:59

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# ? May 10, 2024 05:27

radical meme: Apr 17, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

thrawn527 posted:

Has Marco given any indication that he'll also be running to keep his Senate seat? Because he's up for reelection this year. I assume while he's still in the primary he will be, but after that if he actually gets the nomination? I know there have been instances of VP candidates also running for their Senate seat (Lieberman in 2000 comes to mind) but I can't think of if it's happened for a party's actual Presidential candidate. Seems like it would be seen as showing a lack of confidence.

Basically, I want to know if I should encourage Republicans friends to vote for Rubio in the primary, if it means we get an open Senate seat here in Florida.

edit: Never mind, just found out it's illegal in Florida to be on the ballot for two different offices, and Rubio said he will not be running for reelection. Meaning this could be the political end of him for years to come, at best, if he loses. Oh you stupid bastard, thank you.

Wow I didn't realize this. He's a fool. At 43 years old, why not remain a Senator for a few more terms and see how things develop for the GOP. His decision to run now is just insane. Is his Senate seat vulnerable at all; do the people of Florida want to get rid of him as their Senator?

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:17

Full Battle Rattle: Aug 29, 2009; As long as the times refuse to change, we're going to make a hell of a racket.

Joementum posted:

Great in depth interview with the data guy for Obama's campaigns and Ready for Hillary.

Also goes into the tricks used to build the email list and mentions that the typical Obama campaign volunteer was an older, white woman who they're confident they can convince to volunteer for Hillary.

quote:

MS: No. The folks who support Elizabeth Warren are trying to do something similar, and I haven�t seen their numbers or how successful they�ve been at building a list.

I guess there are still some people who haven't gotten the memo about Elizabeth Warren's non-existant candidacy

Full Battle Rattle fucked around with this message at 15:20 on Apr 15, 2015

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:18

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011; Can't post for 3 days!

Jerry Manderbilt posted:

I remember a few months back in the Obama SoTU 2015 speech thread, when Enigma89 brushed off Rand's stance on Civil Rights with "yeah I guess that's relevant when you're being blown to pieces" and then I said "yeah well he's fine with drone-striking domestic shoplifters" and he ignored that to respond to another poster pressing him on the CRA.

I think this all you need to know about him, really.

This is just expected, since Libertarians don't actually care about reducing death abroad. They care about getting Republicans elected to gently caress the poor here at home. Nominate an anti-war socialist like Sanders, and they'll line up behind Bush because he's the Freedom candidate.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:37

Fried Chicken: Jan 9, 2011; Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

radical meme posted:

Wow I didn't realize this. He's a fool. At 43 years old, why not remain a Senator for a few more terms and see how things develop for the GOP. His decision to run now is just insane. Is his Senate seat vulnerable at all; do the people of Florida want to get rid of him as their Senator?

It's more the people of Florida want to get rid of their governor. A run here will help him build his network and machine, and hey who knows, he might even win. But he will definitely be in a better position to replace voldemort in a few years

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:46

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

I think my favorite line in Rand's stump speech is "we need to go boldly forth under a banner of liberty that clutches the constitution in one hand and the bill of rights in the other."

Aside from the problem of banners clutching things, he seems to believe that the bill of rights is not part of the constitution, which would mean he doesn't think that of the other amendments either, and he doesn't seem too concerned with ensuring we keep clutching amendments after the 10th. There's some pretty important ones further on, Randy!

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:46

mdemone: Mar 14, 2001

Banners have hands?!? Who the gently caress is writing his material?

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:47

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

I'm glad this banner doesn't have hands.

His campaign is just going to be completely insufferable.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:50

Full Battle Rattle: Aug 29, 2009; As long as the times refuse to change, we're going to make a hell of a racket.

Can anybody explain to me why the Jason Sudeikis Biden from SNL is constantly dumping on Scranton, PA?

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:51

mdemone: Mar 14, 2001

Full Battle Rattle posted:

Can anybody explain to me why the Jason Sudeikis Biden from SNL is constantly dumping on Scranton, PA?

Biden was born and grew up there. Also have you been to Scranton?

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:52

thrawn527: Mar 27, 2004; Thrawn/Pellaeon
Studying the art of terrorists
To keep you safe

mdemone posted:

Biden was born and grew up there. Also have you been to Scranton?

Plus it was presented as a boring town of morons in The Office for quite a few years, so it's an easy target.

It's going to be years before I here the name Scranton and don't think of The Office.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:55

Eggplant Squire: Aug 14, 2003

The Chris Christie "Life sucks and it will be worse if you vote for me" Tour really doesn't have a good ring to it. It could stand to be a little more optimistic.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:56

Scrub-Niggurath: Nov 27, 2007

I mean, Christie's elevator pitch is that he's a straight talker who cares more about Getting poo poo Done than partisan politics; why he thinks that will work in the Republican Primary is beyond me

# ? Apr 15, 2015 15:59

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

Chris Christie visited Chez Vachon, a diner in Manchester, this morning. One of the patrons had heard of him before.

quote:

As the New Jersey governor and potential Republican presidential hopeful shook hands on Wednesday at a diner about 240 miles (386 kilometers) from the bridge that connects New Jersey to Manhattan, he stopped at a table where attorney Richard Moquin was eating breakfast with friends.

Turns out Moquin, a registered Democrat, and his wife were returning from a trip to New York to celebrate their 43rd anniversary in September 2013 when they spent three hours stuck in traffic. Federal prosecutors are investigating whether laws were broken when allies of Christie engineered four days of lane closings as political retribution.

This is not the first time a candidate has run into trouble at Chez Vachon. In 2011 Mitt Romney stopped in and was asked by a veteran if he'd ban gay marriage.

Romney was then informed the man was eating breakfast with his husband.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:00

esto es malo: Aug 3, 2006; Don't want to end up a cartoon

In a cartoon graveyard

Joementum posted:

This is not the first time a candidate has run into trouble at Chez Vachon. In 2011 Mitt Romney stopped in and was asked by a veteran if he'd ban gay marriage.

Romney was then informed the man was eating breakfast with his husband.

How did this play out? Don't remember much about the exchange.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:04

Scrub-Niggurath: Nov 27, 2007

Alternatively, Christie's elevator pitch is what happens when he stands too far off center when riding in one

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:04

Doh004: Apr 22, 2007; Mmmmm Donuts...

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

Alternatively, Christie's elevator pitch is what happens when he stands too far off center when riding in one

Nice.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:19

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

joeburz posted:

How did this play out? Don't remember much about the exchange.

Not many fireworks. Romney thanked him for his service and said he believes in traditional marriage. Then walked away. The guy said he couldn't respect anyone who didn't support gay marriage.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:20

Nth Doctor: Sep 7, 2010; Darkrai used Dream Eater!
It's super effective!

Venom Snake posted:

Seriously what the gently caress is this comic. I don't know what point it's trying to make because it portrays literally everything as bad.

This loving comic. I spent my whole evening reading some :freep:

:freep:

porn about how great it is that everyone's packing heat and suing each other, instead of playing Kerbal Space Program. t

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:24

Real Name Grover: Feb 13, 2002; Like corn on the cob; Fan of Britches

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Not many fireworks. Romney thanked him for his service and said he believes in traditional marriage. Then walked away. The guy said he couldn't respect anyone who didn't support gay marriage.

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRN9Y5Nvdqk

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:39

Addamere: Jan 3, 2010; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Nth Doctor posted:

This loving comic. I spent my whole evening reading some porn about how great it is that everyone's packing heat and suing each other, instead of playing Kerbal Space Program. t

By contrast I would support a candidate whose platform included everyone playing Kerbal Space Program.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 16:47

Fritz Coldcockin: Nov 7, 2005

Concerned Citizen posted:

Obama can campaign all he wants for Hillary.

I think Obama will want to spend post-President years taking on the whole "elder statesman" role that Carter/Clinton took on.

The only outcome is Associate Supreme Court Justice Barack Obama.

Even better if he replaces Scalia, but I'll take him as a replacement for Ginsburg. I'm not even joking--I honestly think that if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency and a vacancy on the court comes up she should consider him.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:05

Mr Ice Cream Glove: Apr 22, 2007

Chipotle-gate continues

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:37

Lemming: Apr 21, 2008

Nth Doctor posted:

This loving comic. I spent my whole evening reading some porn about how great it is that everyone's packing heat and suing each other, instead of playing Kerbal Space Program. t

I said don't read it.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:38

Barracuda Bang!: Oct 21, 2008; The first rule of No Avatar Club is: you do not talk about No Avatar Club. The second rule of No Avatar Club is: you DO NOT talk about No Avatar Club; Grimey Drawer

Alter Ego posted:

The only outcome is Associate Supreme Court Justice Barack Obama.

Even better if he replaces Scalia, but I'll take him as a replacement for Ginsburg. I'm not even joking--I honestly think that if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency and a vacancy on the court comes up she should consider him.

I'd love to see that confirmation hearing

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:40

Mr Ice Cream Glove: Apr 22, 2007

Chipotle-gate

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:40

ufarn: May 30, 2009

mdemone posted:

Banners have hands?!? Who the gently caress is writing his material?

I *think* they were trying to evoke the imagery of the Seal of POTUS.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:44

Syjefroi: Oct 6, 2003; I'll play it first and tell you what it is later.

There are no more things to bash Hilary about. They exhausted them in the 90s, went through the last clunkers in 2008, and resorted to grasping at nanostraws during her State Department run. I hope you are all prepared for the deluge of daily -gates about every worthless grain-of-sand-sized topic that no one will care about by the afternoon. Voters already have Clinton-scandal fatigue so the GOP will, of course, try to throw every possible thing at the wall to find that one silver bullet scandal that finally gets people to flip on her. And all of this will be interspersed with not-at-all veiled misogyny. 2016!

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:48

Mister Bates: Aug 4, 2010

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

Chipotle-gate

Literally everything she does for the next two years is going to be a scandal, and so are most of the things she doesn't do. She eats a burrito, it's a scandal. She wears mismatched socks, it's a scandal. There are a few days of unseasonably heavy rain in Zagreb, it's a scandal.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:51

sexy fucking muskrat: Aug 22, 2010; by exmarx

In other "petty attacks on Hillary"-news, someone knocked over her father's gravestone yesterday.

I can't wait to see how horrible the attacks will be 18 months from now.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:55

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Mister Bates posted:

There are a few days of unseasonably heavy rain in Zagreb, it's a scandal.

Harder to aim a shot in the rain.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 17:56

Tender Bender: Sep 17, 2004

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

Chipotle-gate

What are they even going for here? Her trip is very heavily publicized and she's released actual photos and video... What do you gain from "She deliberately leaked the security cam footage!"

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:00

Addamere: Jan 3, 2010; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Tender Bender posted:

What are they even going for here? Her trip is very heavily publicized and she's released actual photos and video... What do you gain from "She deliberately leaked the security cam footage!"

She is intentionally manipulating the Fourth Estate, unlike our fair and honest Republican champions of freedom.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:02

Addamere: Jan 3, 2010; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

If she would lie about Chipotle, she would lie about Benghazi.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:03

Addamere: Jan 3, 2010; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Ron Paul 2016 open your eyes sheeple

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:03

DaveWoo: Aug 14, 2004; Fun Shoe

quote:

Chris Christie took a centrist tone on guns Wednesday, calling for the �right balance� between gun control and the Second Amendment.

�We�ve got to make sure we have public safety, but on the other hand, we have to protect people�s rights both as sportsmen and hunters and for self-protection, too, find the right balance,� Christie told a group of New Hampshire voters at Chez Vachon in Manchester, according to New Jersey newspaper The Record.

Welp, nice knowing ya, Chris.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:04

Nintendo Kid: Aug 4, 2011; by Smythe

Alter Ego posted:

The only outcome is Associate Supreme Court Justice Barack Obama.

Even better if he replaces Scalia, but I'll take him as a replacement for Ginsburg. I'm not even joking--I honestly think that if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency and a vacancy on the court comes up she should consider him.

Well Michelle wants some time living away from DC, so honestly nominating Obama should wait until like the last year of Hillary's term. Gets them a good 7-8 years out of dc.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:07

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

Nietzschean posted:

If she would lie about Chipotle, she would lie about Benghazi.

                B
CHIPOTLE
                N
                G
                H
                A
                Z
                I

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:13

Spergin Morlock: Aug 8, 2009

DaveWoo posted:

Welp, nice knowing ya, Chris.

Between this and his "will enforce federal marijuana laws against states" stance, I wonder if we'll be finding out soon that he likes hanging out with Rob Ford.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:14

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# ? May 10, 2024 05:27

Bobby Digital: Sep 4, 2009

Joementum posted:

��B
CHIPOTLE
��N
��G
��H
��A
��Z
��I

Beanghazi.

# ? Apr 15, 2015 18:21

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