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Joementum posted:Manchin's staying in the Senate, so that seat's safe for the Democrats. Was about to say this. Though now I am curious to see who we can cajole to run for governor.
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Apr 19, 2015 17:46
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Joementum posted:Manchin's staying in the Senate, so that seat's safe for the Democrats. WV goons, is he personally popular enough or has the state's electorate shifted too much for him to survive?
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Apr 19, 2015 17:46
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:WV goons, is he personally popular enough or has the state's electorate shifted too much for him to survive? He's only loosely a Democrat. He'll sail to re-election in 2018.
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Apr 19, 2015 18:34
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Well, thats a long way off. If 2018 turns into another 2010 (unpopular Dem president, off year election, economic woes, overreach by Dem elected officials) and the Republicans nominate a competent candidate then he might lose. He certainly starts off ahead though.
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Apr 19, 2015 18:40
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:He's only loosely a Democrat. He'll sail to re-election in 2018. As far as red state Dems go, he's actually pretty great. He votes with us on procedural issues and on most bills. Unlike, say, certain other Democrats who have long since passed on to the great lobbyist firm in the sky (K Street). But I wouldn't say he'll sail to re-election in 2018. Manchin is popular now, but 2018 is a long ways away and even popular politicians can be swallowed up in unfavorable climates.
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Apr 19, 2015 18:44
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Cliff Racer posted:Probably about the same, assuming he hasn't been doing any scandalous poo poo that hasn't broken yet. The real key is that PA political insiders hate Sestak and he doesn't particularly like them in return. As to candidate quality, ehh, Sestak wasn't bad last time around and lost mostly because of the 2010 wave. Rematches might not look the best but candidates have come out and won them before. Sestak is awful. Just awful. His consultants are awful. He can't win a race to save his life. Shapiro would make a far better candidate. I think PA political insiders hate him for a reason - he and his team run elections like it's 1992 and have absolutely no idea what they are doing. He would spoil an otherwise winnable race. That's beyond the whole Arlen Specter issue.
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Apr 19, 2015 18:46
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I honestly couldn't imagine Specter surviving 2010 no matter what he did. His only option would have been to switch from R to I caucusing with D (instead of just "D" which is what he did) and then run full tilt on being an independent. That probably would have involved also voting against some of the Democratic legislation he voted for in that last year and a half but I'm not sure which things that would be. Maybe Obamacare but maybe not.
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Apr 19, 2015 19:01
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Was about to say this. Though now I am curious to see who we can cajole to run for governor. Joe Manchin IV alternatively see if y'all can whip up an Earl Tomblin III
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Apr 19, 2015 19:48
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Gyges posted:That would keep him from making his triumphant return to the NFL via one of the teams who are totally talking to his agent about signing him. Also the Florida Republicans don't need to stoop to sports stars. If he does well, Tebow could jump into the Pennsylvania Senate race. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/report--eagles-plan-to-sign-tim-tebow-at-fourth-qb-on-monday-230425075.html
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Apr 20, 2015 03:38
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PupsOfWar posted:Joe Manchin IV JM4 isn't very popular within the political machinery. The likely candidates are Jeff Kessler, who's made something of a name for himself since the Republican take over of the state legislature by not being afraid to be a Democrat, Natalie Tennant and I hear Booth Goodwin (which would be in keeping with awesome named candidates.) Goodwin has lower name rec, but is well connected and has served as a USAG for several years.
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Apr 20, 2015 13:35
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:JM4 isn't very popular within the political machinery. I was joking I didn't know yall had another Joe
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Apr 20, 2015 13:52
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PupsOfWar posted:I was joking I didn't know yall had another Joe Two more actually! If I remember correctly, little Joe (IV) is currently serving as a superintendent for one of the county Board of Education's that got taken over. I suppose he could eventually worm his way into state-level politics, but he's not nearly as good as his father.
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Apr 20, 2015 14:20
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The ten Republicans who voted for Loretta Lynch this afternoon:quote:Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Thad Cochran (Miss.), Susan Collins (Maine), Jeff Flake (Ariz.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mark Kirk (Ill.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
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Apr 23, 2015 19:17
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More White Noise posted:The ten Republicans who voted for Loretta Lynch this afternoon: Most of those I can understand because they're basically the "remaining shreds of sanity clinging to the mast amidst the maelstrom" caucus but then Lindsey Graham is on there and I'm baffled.
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Apr 23, 2015 20:35
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FAUXTON posted:Most of those I can understand because they're basically the "remaining shreds of sanity clinging to the mast amidst the maelstrom" caucus but then Lindsey Graham is on there and I'm baffled. Not really that baffling: Graham's on the Judiciary Committee, and he was apparently impressed by Lynch ("She's qualified," he said in an interview). Additionally, Graham, for all his foreign policy bluster, tends to be one of the more moderate GOP senators on (some elements of) domestic policy. The real name that sticks out on there is Ron Johnson, but then, this is a pretty naked move to shore up some moderate credibility as he heads into a tough re-election fight.
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Apr 23, 2015 20:39
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FAUXTON posted:Most of those I can understand because they're basically the "remaining shreds of sanity clinging to the mast amidst the maelstrom" caucus but then Lindsey Graham is on there and I'm baffled. Lindsey aspires to be viewed as this cycle's Huntsman.
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Apr 23, 2015 20:39
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Franco Potente posted:Not really that baffling: Graham's on the Judiciary Committee, and he was apparently impressed by Lynch ("She's qualified," he said in an interview). Additionally, Graham, for all his foreign policy bluster, tends to be one of the more moderate GOP senators on (some elements of) domestic policy.
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Apr 23, 2015 20:45
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Oracle posted:Same could be said of Kirk. Even more so than Graham, I'd count Kirk as one of the true moderate Republican senators (except on Israel, where he is relentlessly hawkish). No doubt part of the calculus of his vote was the re-election he has to face this year, but I think that, even if wasn't coming up on an election year, he'd probably have voted aye. He usually ends up as a crossover vote in these situations.
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Apr 23, 2015 20:49
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Yets be honest, if he didn't cross over on stuff like this all the time (so even when elections aren't imminent) he'd be a dead man walking come voting day. He probably is anyway just due to polarization and state voting trends. The real surprise there is that Toomey didn't vote Aye. I wonder why.
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Apr 24, 2015 00:27
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Franco Potente posted:Not really that baffling: Graham's on the Judiciary Committee, and he was apparently impressed by Lynch ("She's qualified," he said in an interview). Additionally, Graham, for all his foreign policy bluster, tends to be one of the more moderate GOP senators on (some elements of) domestic policy. Graham is, at least according to that one chart that gets posted on occasion, one of the few Republican figures of note that votes more liberal than he talks.
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Apr 25, 2015 08:53
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Taerkar posted:Graham is, at least according to that one chart that gets posted on occasion, one of the few Republican figures of note that votes more liberal than he talks. I thought that Graham was one of the last remaining members of the school of thought that the President should be able to have whatever political operatives he wants, and the Senate's job is merely to make sure the nominees are qualified. See also, his vote for Elena Kagan's confirmation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elena_Kagan_Supreme_Court_nomination#Full_Senate
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Apr 25, 2015 13:43
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Lindsey aspires to be viewed as this cycle's Huntsman. I wonder if Mr Graham posts on Something Awful too?
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Apr 29, 2015 00:04
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Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is now running for Rubio's seat.
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May 6, 2015 14:52
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I wonder if Mr Graham posts on Something Awful too? Does Three Olives post all that much anymore?
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May 6, 2015 15:41
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Joementum posted:Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is now running for Rubio's seat. Florida is dumb enough to elect him too. Come on Florida Democrats, pull a rabbit out of your hat and put up someone electable.
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May 6, 2015 16:06
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We have basically nothing down here, which is what happens when you have 20 years of one party rule.
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May 6, 2015 16:20
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FlamingLiberal posted:We have basically nothing down here, which is what happens when you have 20 years of one party rule. Hey, one of Canada's most conservative provinces just replaced a 44-year conservative hegemony with a majority left-wing government. Never give up 
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May 6, 2015 17:18
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Franco Potente posted:Hey, one of Canada's most conservative provinces just replaced a 44-year conservative hegemony with a majority left-wing government. Never give up Canada has a lot of nice things that America doesn't.
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May 6, 2015 18:17
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Franco Potente posted:Hey, one of Canada's most conservative provinces just replaced a 44-year conservative hegemony with a majority left-wing government. Never give up Is there a basic writeup of that whole thing somewhere for us USians who have next to know knowledge of Canuckistani provincial politics? I got the gist (left-center NDP ousts right-wing PC) but the background and details elude me, like how these parties relate to Canada's national parties and what the hell is Wildrose? And the CanadaPol thread wasn't really helpful within about a dozen pages, just TVIVing the election results.
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May 6, 2015 18:43
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Lemniscate Blue posted:Is there a basic writeup of that whole thing somewhere for us USians who have next to know knowledge of Canuckistani provincial politics? I got the gist (left-center NDP ousts right-wing PC) but the background and details elude me, like how these parties relate to Canada's national parties and what the hell is Wildrose? As an uneducated American having read a little bit about this, Wildrose is basically the Albertan version of the Tea Party.
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May 6, 2015 18:56
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ComradeCosmobot posted:As an uneducated American having read a little bit about this, Wildrose is basically the Albertan version of the Tea Party. Their whole Tea Party thing happened 20 years ago (Reform/Alliance), with it cannibalizing the old conservative party and reabsorbing it. Stephen Harper's from the Reform wing.
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May 6, 2015 18:58
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So why is it that Rubio can't run for his Senate seat in 2016? I know he's running for the presidential nomination, but if he doesn't get it he should still be able to seek reelection, right?
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May 6, 2015 22:37
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There would most likely be time for him to file for Florida's state-office primaries, yes, but he told the party that they should start looking for his replacement the week before he announced his Presidential campaign. The rumor is that his backup plan, in case he doesn't become President, is to run for Governor in 2018 when Scott is term-limited out.
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May 6, 2015 22:41
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That just seems like an odd plan because a lot of things could happen between now and Iowa. I mean, I know that he doesn't actually ever bother to show up or do any work at the Senate but this seems a bit premature.
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May 6, 2015 22:50
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nm wrong topic
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May 6, 2015 22:59
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Dr. Tough posted:That just seems like an odd plan because a lot of things could happen between now and Iowa. I mean, I know that he doesn't actually ever bother to show up or do any work at the Senate but this seems a bit premature. It's not a terrible plan, especially since unexpectedly giving up his seat may flush out some of his rivals for Governor, and take one out of contention.
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May 6, 2015 23:03
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Joementum posted:There would most likely be time for him to file for Florida's state-office primaries, yes, but he told the party that they should start looking for his replacement the week before he announced his Presidential campaign. If (when) his presidential primary campaign implodes, I look forward to him doing lots of crazy poo poo while sitting around jobless and powerless from 2016-2018 to try to stay relevant until his gubernatorial campaign can start.
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May 6, 2015 23:17
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Morrow posted:It's not a terrible plan, especially since unexpectedly giving up his seat may flush out some of his rivals for Governor, and take one out of contention. It also reenforces his presidential campaign. He's a super serious candidate who isn't hanging onto a back-up plan, like certain other candidates. He may even have figured that it was a necessary move in order to make a real play for big donors. Also, even if he flames out spectacularly, there was pretty much no way he wasn't going to get primaried by a bunch of assholes who smelled blood in the water. A situation Rubio is quite familiar with considering how he drove Crist out of the party in his quest for the Senate seat in the first place. He can't effectively fight off challengers to his Senate seat while running for the Presidential Nomination, and by the time the first 3 primaries forced him out he'd be kind of hosed in his Senate race. Add in the real possibility that Hillary carries Florida by enough to provide coat tails to the Democratic candidate, and the Senate seat becomes a lot less desirable. Especially when taking over after Rick Scott is a pretty doable back up plan to being President.
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May 6, 2015 23:57
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Marlin "We Have To Get Something And I Don't Even Know What That Is" Stutzman is running for Senate in Indiana.
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May 10, 2015 02:08
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withak posted:If (when) his presidential primary campaign implodes, I look forward to him doing lots of crazy poo poo while sitting around jobless and powerless from 2016-2018 to try to stay relevant until his gubernatorial campaign can start. It wouldn't really be that long. He's still in the Senate until January 2017 and he'll probably be busy helping the Republican nominee and/or candidate for Senate in 2016 to build up favors and network locally. Then you figure the "Invisible Primary" stuff for Florida governor probably starts mid-to-late 2017 (Crist announced on Nov. 1st 2013 and presumably was laying groundwork in advance of that).
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May 10, 2015 02:44
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