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Chamale
Jul 11, 2010

I'm helping!



Stultus Maximus posted:

"Domestic"
"Canada"

There are two kinds of oil: Overseas, and domestic.

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JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

GlyphGryph posted:

72% is not "almost everyone", since a full quarter of the population opposed it. Hillary Clinton is hardly a representative of the sort of "everyone" you're talking about here anyway - within her cohort, Democratic Congressmembers, she was in a minority.
Within her actual cohort of Democratic Senators she was in the majority: 29 of 50 voted for it.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Talmonis posted:

Nobody will survive an election (nor will their party) for raising gas prices to a massive degree, and all the add-on effects that would have. Saudi Arabia is going to have a very bad ever after the moment that something aside from oil becomes more cost efficient.

http://content.usatoday.com/communi.../1#.VTfiOLph01g

quote:

Think gas is pricey at the pump? Try your tax bill instead, with an economic analysis putting the U.S. military tab on keeping Middle Eastern crude coming at more than $225 billion a year over the last three decades.

Since 1980, when President Jimmy Carter decreed the "Carter Doctrine" of keeping Persian Gulf oil flowing to the world, subsequent administrations have pursued policies aimed at keeping the tankers coming, using U.S. military forces to provide security, notes Princeton's Roger Stern in a new Energy Policy journal analysis.

In the study, Stern uses a common full-cost accounting model that takes Persian Gulf deployment of aircraft carriers from 1976 to 2008 as the chits added together to tote up the costs of this policy. Cost, he writes, "follows simply from DoD data that since 1990 no less than one aircraft carrier has been continuously on-station in the Persian Gulf; that eight are required to keep one on-station there; that the Navy has had 11-15 carriers since 1990; and that Army and Air Force units are virtually never deployed to combat operations without Navy units."

The Defense Department doesn't calculate these prices separate from its other activities, such as the 2003 war in Iraq and the current fight in Afghanistan. Past academic analysis have often indirectly estimated the cost of Persian Gulf oil from the price of gas at the pump, and other economic costs. Most recently, for example, a 2008 analysis led by Mark Delucchi of the University of California, Davis, put a price of $27–$73 billion per year, on "U.S. combined peacetime and wartime defense expenditures" that wouldn't exist without Persian Gulf oil.

Stern suggests the price is higher, based on the Defense Department's numbers for the costs of sending aircraft carriers, and associated people and equipment from the other services, to the Gulf. In all, he finds such deployments cost $6.8 trillion from 1976 to 2007 with another $500 billion in costs for 2006, a total of $7.3 trillion. The finding essentially rests on an estimate of the aircraft-carrier hours devoted to the Persian Gulf divided by the total number of hours of all air-craft carrier activity.

Scrub-Niggurath
Nov 27, 2007

Stultus Maximus posted:

"Domestic"
"Canada"

Lmao oh no everybody the Canadian Tyrants are going to dominate our foreign policy

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Chamale posted:

There are two kinds of oil: Overseas, and domestic.

I believe the appropriate terms are "clean energy" and "foreign oil." What politician in America is for dependence on foreign oil and against clean energy? Not one in office, I tell you what. Not one representing the will of their constituency.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Stultus Maximus posted:

"Domestic"
"Canada"

Theres plenty of whining about domestic pipelines too, its just usually only makes into your local papers.

And yes I will concede that 72% of the country and a slim majority of democratic senators isn't almost everybody but she was absolutely not alone. If a quarter of the country was opposed that means approximately half the democratic voters in this country supported the war.

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Chamale posted:

Are there any poll numbers matching Bernie Sanders against various Republican candidates?

not that I can find but something tells me the guy who calls himself a socialist wouldn't fare too well

Unzip and Attack
Mar 3, 2008

USPOL May

JT Jag posted:

Within her actual cohort of Democratic Senators she was in the majority: 29 of 50 voted for it.

29 out of 50 - wow talk about an overwhelming consensus. I also like the notion that because X number of Clinton's colleagues may have wanted something, she is totally excused from any responsibility for voting with them even though said vote caused a million loving deaths. What in the actual poo poo is going on in this thread?

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Unzip and Attack posted:

29 out of 50 - wow talk about an overwhelming consensus. I also like the notion that because X number of Clinton's colleagues may have wanted something, she is totally excused from any responsibility for voting with them even though said vote caused a million loving deaths. What in the actual poo poo is going on in this thread?

Man you are going to be really mad on Jan 21 2017.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

JT Jag posted:

Within her actual cohort of Democratic Senators she was in the majority: 29 of 50 voted for it.

Are you going to argue why this is the relevant group, rather than the group who authorized the war overall? Did the Senate Democrats lack some unique information House Democrats had that convinced House Democrats to oppose the war in opposition to popular sentiment while the Senators did not? Like, what is your point here?

Tobermory
Mar 31, 2011

Radbot posted:

So we'd all rather suck Saudi dick than try to move to domestic energy sources. OK then, I can see why Americans would want to do that (they're very stupid).

Oil is why we care about the region, but it's not the reason we're friendly with the house of Saud. A lot of politicians are still working on a weird variant of the Nixon doctrine -- having allies in the region is considered to be more important than what those allies actually do, and we protect those allies at all costs. That's why we support the Saudi government, and that's why over 2/3 of Republicans just said that Israel is an important ally and we should support it even if our interests diverge.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Hillary is the next President, not even the next nominee. Please understand that, that's just the way life is?

That said if Bernie runs he's got my primary vote.

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011

Radbot posted:


Who cares if they're to the right of the public average? They're right in the middle of what the people in their district believe.
I thought people consistently think their district is more conservative than it actually is.

Unzip and Attack
Mar 3, 2008

USPOL May

zoux posted:

Man you are going to be really mad on Jan 21 2017.

I've totally made peace with Hillary as POTUS. Barring something huge, it's going to happen. That doesn't mean the idiots in this thread defending her Iraq vote aren't insane doing mental backflips to ignore her very active part in enabling genocide.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Unzip and Attack posted:

29 out of 50 - wow talk about an overwhelming consensus. I also like the notion that because X number of Clinton's colleagues may have wanted something, she is totally excused from any responsibility for voting with them even though said vote caused a million loving deaths. What in the actual poo poo is going on in this thread?

Why don't you feel the same way about the AMF for the GWOT? A few voted against it, correctly articulating that a blank check would get us into a never ending war (which it has). It has certainly led to many many deaths.



Why isn't voting for the GWOT a litmus test vote for you too?



GlyphGryph posted:

Are you going to argue why this is the relevant group, rather than the group who authorized the war overall? Did the Senate Democrats lack some unique information House Democrats had that convinced House Democrats to oppose the war in opposition to popular sentiment while the Senators did not? Like, what is your point here?

Yeah the Senate Democrats lacked the information that Pelosi would break their kneecaps if they broke rank. :commissar:

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

The big question, what are the alternatives? Frankly, there aren't any good options other than nudging folks in the region to get their poo poo together so we don't have to.

Now Israel, there's a nation with its poo poo together. We don't need to station a carrier battlegroup off Israel to keep the eastern med sea energy flowing, you can trust Israel to keep exports to Europe flowing on their own.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

My Imaginary GF posted:

The big question, what are the alternatives? Frankly, there aren't any good options other than nudging folks in the region to get their poo poo together so we don't have to.

Now Israel, there's a nation with its poo poo together. We don't need to station a carrier battlegroup off Israel to keep the eastern med sea energy flowing, you can trust Israel to keep exports to Europe flowing on their own.

You're correct, we don't have to station a Carrier Group to protect Israeli Oil. There really isn't enough Israeli Oil to make it worth protecting.

Unzip and Attack
Mar 3, 2008

USPOL May

Trabisnikof posted:

Why don't you feel the same way about the AMF for the GWOT? A few voted against it, correctly articulating that a blank check would get us into a never ending war (which it has). It has certainly led to many many deaths.


Because the AUMF is merely a flawed legal declaration that is arguably necessary in certain circumstances and has been used to do some good in the world along with the bad. Also the AUMF wasn't predicated on complete horseshit that even a middle schooler could puzzle out. Comparing the AUMF to regime change in Iraq is something I'd expect on Reddit, not here.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Nonsense posted:

Hillary is the next President, not even the next nominee. Please understand that, that's just the way life is?

That said if Bernie runs he's got my primary vote.

This.

SCOTUS appointments are the real prize of the presidency since having the court lean one way or the other can either overturn horribly backwards laws (segregation, abortion) or confirm completely horrible laws (hobby lobby, citizens united).

Also... :lol: at anyone dumb enough to think that President Sanders/Warren will somehow lead to a socialist utopia with with the republicans controlling both house and senate.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

A Winner is Jew posted:

Also... :lol: at anyone dumb enough to think that President Sanders/Warren will somehow lead to a socialist utopia with with the republicans controlling both house and senate.

What about those who just think a President Sanders/Warrens would be less likely to get us into another foreign war?

Also, Chafee voted against the war, and was in fact the only Republican Senator to do so. I was completely serious when I said I like Chafee.

GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Apr 22, 2015

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

A Winner is Jew posted:

Also... :lol: at anyone dumb enough to think that President Sanders/Warren will somehow lead to a socialist utopia with with the republicans controlling both house and senate.
The Democrats will probably win back the Senate in 2016, so that'll be a two-year window where executive actions and appointments can go through at least

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Unzip and Attack posted:

I've totally made peace with Hillary as POTUS. Barring something huge, it's going to happen. That doesn't mean the idiots in this thread defending her Iraq vote aren't insane doing mental backflips to ignore her very active part in enabling genocide.

You're the worst kind of politically active individual. The purity test type.

It's disingenuous to think that Hillary should be crucified for a vote that is well within the majority of not only the Congress, but also her party, and BY FAR the majority of the US at the time. Stop being an obtuse idiot - this is par for the course.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

GlyphGryph posted:

What about those who just think a President Sanders/Warrens would be less likely to get us into another foreign war?

Yup... it was those drat democrats that dragged us all totally kicking and screaming into Iraq in 03.

e: YOLO

:toxx: $1000 donation to the charity of your choice if president Hillary gets us into a foreign war that isn't in response to a major terrorist attack (1k+ dead) or a humanitarian crisis that the UN authorizes (Balkans/Somalia).

A Winner is Jew fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Apr 22, 2015

Unzip and Attack
Mar 3, 2008

USPOL May

Boon posted:

You're the worst kind of politically active individual. The purity test type.

It's disingenuous to think that Hillary should be crucified for a vote that is well within the majority of not only the Congress, but also her party, and BY FAR the majority of the US at the time. Stop being an obtuse idiot - this is par for the course.

Yeah "not voting for genocide": the ultimate purity test.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

If Hillary starts another war on the scale of Iraq, but also follows through with her promise to "topple the 1%" I'll consider everything a net positive.

i mean, one is vastly more likely than the other, but a man can dream

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Unzip and Attack posted:

Yeah "not voting for genocide": the ultimate purity test.

Yeah man. The bill simply read, "We're going to kill all them dirty fertile crescent sons of bitches" That was the whole thing.

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

Unzip and Attack posted:

Yeah "not voting for genocide": the ultimate purity test.
Yes, I do agree that her Senate Record doesn't look that good when you consider her support of the "Authorization of Literal Genocide Act"

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Unzip and Attack posted:

Yeah "not voting for genocide": the ultimate purity test.

You're kind of throwing around genocide here and while I'm not trying to be pedantic "killing a whole bunch of people" is not synonymous. I don't think that the goal of OIF was the systematic and industrialized extermination of Iraqis.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Unzip and Attack posted:

Yeah "not voting for genocide": the ultimate purity test.

The authorization of force for Iraq did not tell the administration to maximize civilian casualties, just that whatever force is necessary to defend the US. Now, we all know what happened and that language is a joke but hell he could have told congress to rip up the war powers act as its unconstitutional and gone in anyways.

J33uk
Oct 24, 2005
To be fair it's very difficult for Democratic Presidents to recognize genocide.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/22/barack-obama-will-not-label-1915-massacre-of-armenians-a-genocide

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

The result being that Turkey is being nicer to the Kurds than any other time in the last several decades so while this is bullshit in a vacuum him not calling the Armenian genocide a genocide isn't actually happening in a vacuum.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.
But seriously, Chafee:

Has been a Republican (way more of a "maverick" than McCain ever was) Independent and Democrat
Supports same sex marriage
Opposes Charter Schools
Was the only Republican in the Senate to go against his party and oppose the Iraq War
Supports increasing taxes
Pro-choice to the extent he voted against the partial-birth abortion ban
Opposes military and law enforcement overreach
Does not opposed (though does not explicitly support) legalizing marijuana recreationally
Supported McCain-Feingold
Refused an order of a federal court to transfer a prisoner in state custody to the United States government, because the prisoner in question might be subject to capital punishment, which Rhode Island had abolished. At the time, Chafee said, "my actions are motivated by my obligation as governor to safeguard Rhode Island’s sovereignty and the integrity of its laws."
Voted against the Bush Tax Cuts
Opposes Israeli settlements in the West Bank
Supports negotiations with Iran

Why would Chafee not make a better President than Hillary is what I suppose I would ask right now. Why should I support Hillary instead?

A Winner is Jew posted:

e: YOLO

:toxx: $1000 donation to the charity of your choice if president Hillary gets us into a foreign war that isn't in response to a major terrorist attack (1k+ dead) or a humanitarian crisis that the UN authorizes (Balkans/Somalia).

This would be more meaningful if it covered a situation like the war with Iraq, since even Bush didn't do that.

GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Apr 22, 2015

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

My Imaginary GF posted:

The big question, what are the alternatives? Frankly, there aren't any good options other than nudging folks in the region to get their poo poo together so we don't have to.

Now Israel, there's a nation with its poo poo together. We don't need to station a carrier battlegroup off Israel to keep the eastern med sea energy flowing, you can trust Israel to keep exports to Europe flowing on their own.

I can't believe I'm responding to you but the alternatives include initiating a domestic alternative energy "Manhattan Project" and letting the Mideast devolve into the barbaric chaos they seem to want to practice without our interference. If the Chinese or Russians or Australians or Canadians think the stability of the region is that important, they can deal with it. We can even sell them the planes and bombs. And if they don't think it is, we can sell them our cutting edge alternative energy technology.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

JT Jag posted:

The Democrats will probably win back the Senate in 2016, so that'll be a two-year window where executive actions and appointments can go through at least

There are only even odds of this now that Reid is out. Dems need to pick up 5 to account for losing Reid's seat, and the only ones probably on the table are PA, WI, IL and MAYBE FL.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

GlyphGryph posted:

But seriously, Chaffee:

:words:

Why would Chaffee not make a better President than Hillary is what I suppose I would ask right now. Why should I support Hillary instead?

Republican primary voters = he has a 0.0% chance of making it past Iowa for one.

GlyphGryph posted:

This would be more meaningful if it covered a situation like the war with Iraq, since even Bush didn't do that.

Iraq had (a) nothing to do with a terrorist attack and (b) was not a humanitarian crisis that was authorized by the UN.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

A Winner is Jew posted:

Republican primary voters = he has a 0.0% chance of making it past Iowa for one.


Iraq had (a) nothing to do with a terrorist attack and (b) was not a humanitarian crisis that was authorized by the UN.

Chafee is running as a Democrat, why would Republican primary voters matter? He is not that stupid.

A Winner is Jew posted:

Iraq had (a) nothing to do with a terrorist attack and (b) was not a humanitarian crisis that was authorized by the UN.
Iraq was in response to 9/11. You can argue about whether or not that was a justified response, but that is a big part of why it happened. Quick show of hands - who else thinks we didn't go to war with Iraq as part of a response to 9/11?

GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Apr 22, 2015

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

A Winner is Jew posted:

Republican primary voters = he has a 0.0% chance of making it past Iowa for one.
You think that Lincoln Chaffee would run as a Republican, how cute.

Unzip and Attack
Mar 3, 2008

USPOL May

zoux posted:

You're kind of throwing around genocide here and while I'm not trying to be pedantic "killing a whole bunch of people" is not synonymous. I don't think that the goal of OIF was the systematic and industrialized extermination of Iraqis.

Fair enough, I'll walk back the use of that word because you're right - the use of force in Iraq wasn't literally a pro-genocide measure. It should however be noted that Dick Cheney went on CNN in 1997 and when asked why Desert Storm didn't go into Baghdad, he noted the power vacuum caused by a fall of the Baathists would result in a huge chaotic mess that could trigger another war with Iran or a civil war.

When 1997 Dick Cheney has this poo poo figured out better than you do 5 years later, then you've got loving problems. This isn't some little policy quibble- the invasion of Iraq was an inestimable blunder that calls into question the judgment and/or motivation of any human being that supported it. Hillary doesn't get to just shrug and look at the camera while a sad trombone sound plays. I mean if you want to be as bad as the people who ignore Reagan's treason or excuse Bush's ineptitude then go ahead. She was either too concerned with the politics of voting no or too incurious to realize the justification for war was completely fabricated. Take your pick on which one is more palatable.

Unzip and Attack fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Apr 22, 2015

Franco Potente
Jul 9, 2010
This is pedantic, I know, but it's Chafee, guys. One f.

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GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Franco Potente posted:

This is pedantic, I know, but it's Chafee, guys. One f.

Goddamnit, I know this but I just can't stop spelling it wrong.

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