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ARKANE you PROMISED a HOT TIP,,,,,,, thinking about doubling my position on COCP, how wise is this goons
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May 5, 2015 14:10
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I did it, so probably not wise. That was at 1.08 though. TDW with the 7% gain so far today. Did I get out too early? Or did I secure my 20% profits. The mind games...
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May 5, 2015 15:00
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SKELETONS posted:thinking about doubling my position on COCP, how wise is this goons Simple question: Why? There was a "hot tip" a few pages back, but I haven't seen anyone post more than speculation on this one.
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May 5, 2015 15:03
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SKELETONS posted:ARKANE you PROMISED a HOT TIP,,,,,,, yeah, the stock is up 8% in the past two days and I was trying to be cute and get it cheap on monday and missed it, so I am kind of on tilt atm and figuring out where my life went wrong i'm kinda hoping the market just plain crashes. today would be nice. Arkane fucked around with this message at 15:09 on May 5, 2015 |
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May 5, 2015 15:07
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I think the situation calls for more seadrill! Seadrill is doing a pretty good job at making up for the losses in every single other investment I have 
Torpor fucked around with this message at 15:24 on May 5, 2015 |
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May 5, 2015 15:21
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SKELETONS posted:ARKANE you PROMISED a HOT TIP,,,,,,, I'm so confused. Is this seriously just based on a hot tip in some random corner of the internet? I did see that some big money investor guy is buying in in a big way. For people who are more knowledgeable: how is "following the billionaire investor" supposed to work as an investment strategy? Is there a specific way to asses small cap companies that are drawing big money from known investors? What would some of the factors to consider an research in a situation like this? Edit: early stage pharma is a weird industry to speculate in, now that I think about it. how are you supposed to make assesments about whether a given company has something worthwhile in its development pipeline? Business fucked around with this message at 16:05 on May 5, 2015 |
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May 5, 2015 16:01
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Business posted:I'm so confused. Is this seriously just based on a hot tip in some random corner of the internet?  He mentioned a few days ago that he was looking at another company and we're all eagerly awaiting his next m-m-m-mega tip
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May 5, 2015 16:19
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Saint Fu posted:Arkane has recently posted a few companies he thought were undervalued and backed it up with some research (which some people thought was shoddy). Some goons bought in and made some money off of a few of his picks, most recently HOS/TDW Yeah I know I'm just more curious about the investment principles of buying stock on the knowledge that a major investor is putting capital into a small company. Unless its all just hype. I also know a little bit about how biotech companies like COCP work and I'm curious if anyone is actually interested in that sector or people are just throwing money around.
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May 5, 2015 16:32
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SDRL, HOS, TDW All stocks I'm watching. All flying through the roof. I'm totally cashed out of all of them and absolutely hating myself.
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May 5, 2015 16:36
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I took a position in TRMB (Trimble Navigation Limited) at $25.49. I'm just posting here so we can all laugh at my failure or cheer at my success in the coming weeks.
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May 5, 2015 16:36
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Sea drill has a decent chance of going to $20. Some guy yesterday wrote about it going to $24 but I don't know if that is really imminent. Maybe in a few years? I'm hoping to sell in the $20 range.
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May 5, 2015 16:51
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Torpor posted:Sea drill has a decent chance of going to $20. Some guy yesterday wrote about it going to $24 but I don't know if that is really imminent. Maybe in a few years? I'm hoping to sell in the $20 range. That's been the talk for months. I bought it at 9, cashed out at 12 thinking I'd re-buy on one of it's many frequent dips... and I'm an idiot. I missed out on dollars trying to make pennies.
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May 5, 2015 16:54
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Arkane posted:I am kind of on tilt atm and figuring out where my life went wrong This is how I feel about missing TDW at 19...it's taking every ounce of willpower not to chase on the dips. I'm still holding HOS so I've got plenty of exposure in the space already. What do you have your eye on next?
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May 5, 2015 17:26
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So much red, my stocks are bleeding  No amount of seadrill will help!
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May 5, 2015 20:15
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Thanks to whoever recommended GLNG, i bought off of seeing it on this thread (and it having a dividend; i'm a noob). Up heaps today. Over a huge 3 week sample, robinhood >>>> savings account.
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May 5, 2015 21:14
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quote:Thanks to whoever recommended GLNG, i bought off of seeing it on this thread (and it having a dividend; i'm a noob). Up heaps today. Over a huge 3 week sample, robinhood >>>> savings account. That was me. And I'm out now, if anyone's interested. I don't have anything against holding them (current price seems fair) but they went up more than I would have expected already. I'm still in the other side of Golar (GMLP), which has also gone up a small bit (but I expect I'll hold that one for a while).
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May 5, 2015 23:49
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So funds like VXX and SDS are specialized funds that bank on the markets doing specific things like going down or being volatile? Seems like a good way to make money if you know what you are doing ( I do not). Edit: also Gulfmark (GLF), Hornbeck Offshore (HOS), and Tidwater (TDW) had very good days. Torpor fucked around with this message at 00:43 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 00:38
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What sort of strategy would you guys recommend for a poor as heck student? Have some knowledge of the stock market and have paper traded successfully before, issue is I'm young and a poor student. All I can invest is $1k, is it even worth looking into? Any books or resources on short term trading would be cool. When I say "short" I mean like strategies that cover a couple months of investing E: Looks like some of these guys did alright: http://www.marketwatch.com/game/investing-practice-for-poor-college-students krampster2 fucked around with this message at 07:16 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 07:13
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No, don't.
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May 6, 2015 08:23
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Shim Howard posted:No, don't. Okay thanks I probably won't.
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May 6, 2015 08:36
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There's nothing valuable that you can do with 1k unless you want to get a robinhood account, research super cheaply priced <10 dollar stocks, and throw your whole account at them one at a time hoping for the m-m-monster gains. If that sounds too rich for your blood, stay away. IMO
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May 6, 2015 13:34
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Tautologicus posted:There's nothing valuable that you can do with 1k unless you want to get a robinhood account, research super cheaply priced <10 dollar stocks, and throw your whole account at them one at a time hoping for the m-m-monster gains. If that sounds too rich for your blood, stay away. IMO
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May 6, 2015 13:46
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You could just buy 1000+ shares of ANR and hold on to your butt
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May 6, 2015 14:12
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Saint Fu posted:Why does it have to be a <$10 stock? That doesn't make any sense. More shares able to buy=more leverage from small accounts..try doubling up buying 50 or even 25 dollar stocks on a 1000 dollar account. Also the higher the stock price the less volatile in general. HTH Also for the record i tried this with 500 and made 30% in 2 months on 3 stocks then made 2 boneheaded moves cause i just bought stuff that looked decent without doing any research like i had been doing before cause whatever, and lost slightly more than i had ever put in. And i haven't tried again since (mostly because my financial situation is much better). So i am half speaking from experience and half from continued wishful thinking. Keep the gamblers dream alive the worst thing is fucked around with this message at 14:26 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 14:21
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As a college student it would probably be better to contribute to an IRA and let the power of compounding interest work in your favor.
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May 6, 2015 14:45
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Torpor posted:As a college student it would probably be better to contribute to an IRA and let the power of compounding interest work in your favor. I wish I had started contributing to my Roth IRA earlier when I "couldn't afford it" and could've made it as big as possible before breaking the contribution limit. Seriously planning on never even touching that account and setting it up as an estate.
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May 6, 2015 14:50
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Why are you guys hyping ANR? It is cheap and you are hoping for a rally in coal prices?
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May 6, 2015 14:53
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Torpor posted:Why are you guys hyping ANR? It is cheap and you are hoping for a rally in coal prices? http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3259986&userid=197618#post441715685 Just read back from there and then note the date on that final post from dave chapelle crackhead guy.
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May 6, 2015 14:59
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Tautologicus posted:More shares able to buy=more leverage from small accounts..try doubling up buying 50 or even 25 dollar stocks on a 1000 dollar account. Also the higher the stock price the less volatile in general. HTH This makes no sense at all and is terrible advise, stock price means absolutely nothing. HTH
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May 6, 2015 15:04
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He hasn't posted in a while, I hope his baby and wife are eating. 
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May 6, 2015 15:04
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Torpor posted:Why are you guys hyping ANR? It is cheap and you are hoping for a rally in coal prices? caberham posted:Sometimes I can't tell who is trolling or not
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May 6, 2015 15:05
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He's been posting a lot about Star Citizen since then, looks like he found a more productive investment.
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May 6, 2015 15:07
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fruition posted:This is how I feel about missing TDW at 19...it's taking every ounce of willpower not to chase on the dips. I'm still holding HOS so I've got plenty of exposure in the space already. Yeah so I think SAFM, Sanderson Farms, is undervalued on its potential range of earnings outcomes. It's a strictly chicken-producing company (grows and sells chickens), which is the cheapest of the 3 major "protein" meats right now with pork & beef being the other two more expensive meats. Sanderson is the 3rd largest chicken producer in the US behind publicly traded PPC and publicly traded TSN. Has a ~$1.8b cap. Has the best margins of the 3 companies. Cheapest on a valuation basis of the 3. If you look at it based on its metrics, SAFM is incredibly cheap right now (even on a historical level): ~3.5 EV/EBITDA, 6.5 P/E, less than 2x book, .01 debt ratio so a completely unleveraged & nearly debt-free company, and they just finished a sizable expansion in Texas financed entirely with their cash flow. The business is very straight forward. Feed chicken, kill chicken, sell chicken. They sell the chickens using different methods (some pre-packaged, etc.) but it's basically as described. When you dig a little deeper, however, you see that 2014 could be anomalous (and thus skew the valuation metrics). Chicken has been cyclical in the past, and 2014 was sort of a super up cycle. You had rising chicken prices, and a steep decline in the input prices (corn & soybean meal). This "perfect storm" led to a blowout year for earnings, a little over $10 a share for a stock that was at $70 at the beginning of 2014. The stock shot up to $100. It looks like this has led to jitters about the company's market value topping out, and investors didn't want to be caught if/when chicken prices declined and corn prices rose. You can pretty much draw a trend line over the past 10 months (cut out the Ebola drop/bounceback) in a downward trajectory straight line to $80. This stock is HEAVILY shorted and that is an increasing trend (as of the last update): 44% short interest, 10 million shares short with average total daily volume of the stock at 500k (20 day equivalent of shorts). This shorting is not out of concern for something amiss with the company that I can discern: there is >60% short interest in competitor PPC. It is the shorting of the up cycle in chicken, a thesis that 2014 was anomalous and that when the up cycle and the down cycle are smoothed out, the company is worth much lower than it is (or was). Reasonable thesis. However (the good however), when you look at how this thesis has fared in 2015, it has been emphatically terrible. Corn prices in 2015 are lower than 2014 averages, soybean meal is also lower, and chicken prices have increased! The perfect storm has become...perfecter. We saw with Q1 of 2015 that they blew away Q1 of 2014 in earnings. It is the possibility of this continuing for even a short time frame that I think presents a tremendous potential upside to the stock price. There are numerous things to consider with Sanderson in particular: (1) the new plant has finished construction, and they project capex in 2015 will be less than in 2014, which will increase earnings by around $3/share (2) the new processing center went online in Feb 2015, so we'll see greater revenues starting in Q2, and therefore greater earnings going forward (3) 2015 is thus far an improvement over 2014 in terms of input & output prices, so the potential for greater earnings in the form of margin increases is there without changing anything about the business and (4) there are a whole shitload of shares short that are thus far very wrong about commodity prices and might start to wave the white flag. The future is unknowable, so it's important to realize that corn could start increasing substantially, chicken could decrease, etc...in fact given the cyclical nature of this company in the past, a down cycle where the company loses money would seem like an inevitability. There is, though, a margin of safety here between the balance sheet and the earnings. If we conservatively assume that $5.50 a share is a cyclically adjusted earnings potential of the company (it's hard to precisely determine because the company has grown so much of late), and use a conservative multiplier of 10, and add in the $13 in cash equivalents on the balance sheet [current assets - total liabilities] (this excludes buildings, machinery, etc.), you get $68 a share as a fair value. The stock is at $80 right now. So again, much like HOS, we have some commodity optionality here in a stock. Looking at a range of future possibilities....generally speaking, in a future where corn prices start rising and chicken prices start dropping, the stock falls but probably not that much, whereas in a future where things stay largely the same for the near term future, this stock is worth way more it is right now. The dice haven't been thrown yet, but they're weighted in the upside's favor imho. Here's some MBA students who wrote up a PDF that goes through pretty much the whole company: http://www.freeman.tulane.edu/burkenroad/pdf/SAFM.pdf (I think their 2015 earning forecasts are low given recent commodity values). Coincidentally these guys also did one on HOS as well. Realistically, I think this company earns $12 a share in 2015 without much trouble, with the potential for $15+ a share. And given that the company has no debt, and no short-term plans for capex (they are planning an expansion in North Carolina that is still in the planning stages -- they recently chose a location), much of those earnings are likely to be returned to shareholders in the form of either buybacks or a special dividend. There is a chance they will do some sort of takeover, although I cannot find evidence of them ever doing one. They have said they will decide around October what they will do with 2015 earnings, so capital return is a ticking timebomb for the shorts unless commodity prices start cooperating with them immediately and forcefully. In general there is really not much to dislike about this company at all. All of the top management has been working there for what appears to be their entire careers, and the company is 60 years old, which is to say, they probably know their way around the business. One last thing I should mention is that bird flu is currently spreading among poultry in multiple northern states....I think at least 2 have declared a state of emergency (Minnesota & Iowa) and it is causing a scare up there. However, as far as what I have read, bird flu does not spread well in warmer climates, and all of Sanderson's operations are in the south. Sanderson has not seen any cases, and is taking precautions against it. This has wider implications on the industry in two significant ways: less supply of chicken and significantly reduced international demand for American poultry (due to import bans). Sanderson only exports about 10% of its chicken, and US Georgia dock prices for chicken have thus far not been impacted heavily by the international bans. Remains to be seen if there is any long-term impacts, but for the time being we're entering the warmer months and the problem will more than likely diminish in scope. As far as the stock price, I have no idea where it's headed and my price target is "higher than it is right now." The stock is up since last week so not sure on a good entry point. Thoughts and criticisms?
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May 6, 2015 16:28
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Pshh shoddy stuff, I'm sticking with coal
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May 6, 2015 16:36
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quote:Yeah so I think SAFM, Sanderson Farms, is undervalued on its potential range of earnings outcomes. It's a strictly chicken-producing company (grows and sells chickens)... After watching this, I don't see how you can go wrong here. Oh, and I'm in for a bit at $79.30.
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May 6, 2015 16:49
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Chicken is the new coal
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May 6, 2015 17:11
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Arkane posted:Yeah so I think SAFM, Sanderson Farms, is undervalued on its potential range of earnings outcomes. First, thanks for this post. There's a lot of additional analysis on Seeking Alpha for anyone interested. I'm a little skittish because there are so many different commodity variables, especially with poultry prices at all time highs, and corn prices at lows. Things I like: Heavily shorted, 44% of float, which could be ripe for a short squeeze. Allegedly the majority of shares being sold short are held by a hedge fund (SAC) that's long TSN and short SAFM and PPC to play both sides of the commodities cycle. I also like that it isn't a sexy stock, but it's a solid company fundamentally. Do you think the potential upside of the avian flu epidemic has already been factored in? If not, I like the idea of this as a possible near term catalyst. Lastly, how do you feel about the company's earnings on May 28th? Do you think there's a likelihood of a surprise that may cause a short squeeze? I'll put this on my watch list and if possible try to get in mid-70's.
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May 6, 2015 17:26
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Short Janet yellen!!
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May 6, 2015 17:28
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District Selectman posted:This makes no sense at all and is terrible advise, stock price means absolutely nothing. HTH Stock price means a lot especially since many funds won't purchase them if they're under a certain price..you should know that. That contributes to volatility or lack of. Also I already made my actual point and should not in any way be construed as "advice"..lol. If you buy 1000 dollars of a 25 dollar stock and it goes up a dollar (a normal big move), you make 40 dollars. If you buy 1000 dollars of a 5 dollar stock and it goes up 50 cents (a normal big move), you make 100 dollars. 10% vs 4% hmmmm... This isn't even getting into whether lower priced stocks are riskier are not, but you yourself said that stock price means nothing, so it looks like you'd be forced to agree with me then..? Well, that was fun cya
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May 6, 2015 17:44
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fruition posted:Allegedly the majority of shares being sold short are held by a hedge fund (SAC) that's long TSN and short SAFM and PPC to play both sides of the commodities cycle. I've read the Cohen thing, but haven't found anything to substantiate its accuracy. Plus, look at how much Tyson Point72 owns, it is tiny. Look at the short interest in PPC and SAMF, it is huge. I've read that the chicken trade is popular, which is to buy in down cycles and sell in up cycles. To me this this reasons as much more likely, and indeed the building up of short interest over time in both names would seem to back that up. Why TSN isn't shorted is probably due to the company not being a pure chicken play anymore after acquisitions. I don't think avian flu has much impact either way. It's largely a turkey problem and an egg problem right now. Where it does have an impact is exports to China: all poultry from the US is currently banned. How that plays out I couldn't hazard a guess. Company's earnings end of May should be great, but that is also the expectation. I would expect earning forecasts to start to rise for the back half of the year as we inch closer. No idea on a surprise. I think the short squeeze is likely to play out over the course of a few months, if it does play out at all. FYI on corn...the company says they largely go hand-to-mouth in terms of corn/soybean, which is to say that they're about real-time in terms of prices with a think a bit in 1-2 month out futures. So assuming they buy 1-2 months out, their fiscal years ends end of October 2015. That is 4 months away in terms of buying corn/soybean. Not much sand left in the hourglass.
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May 6, 2015 17:51
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