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Joementum posted:New Quinnipiac Iowa poll shows trouble ahead for Bush. So Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have the momentum. Scott Walker really seems like the Rick Perry of this cycle. I look forward to his insane take on the OOPS moment.
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May 6, 2015 12:46
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How did Rubio get so popular among republicans? I thought he said a pro immigration thing once and they decided they hated him.
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May 6, 2015 13:22
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Sgt. Anime Pederast posted:How did Rubio get so popular among republicans? I thought he said a pro immigration thing once and they decided they hated him. he has nice "not-bush" qualities, also he hates the cuba normalization process so that helps. too bad he's garbage and it'll end up being Scott "vanilla soft serve ice cream in the form of a human" Walker probably due to massive money backers
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May 6, 2015 13:33
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Sgt. Anime Pederast posted:How did Rubio get so popular among republicans? I thought he said a pro immigration thing once and they decided they hated him. 2) The Republican primary voting pool is dominated by purity-obsessed True Believers, but there are still a lot of GOP voters out there who just want a winning candidate. They chose McCain in 08 and Romney in 12, after all 3) Walker and Bush are making very weak first impressions of themselves (and Christie's ship is sinking like the Lusitania), so the not-crazy Republican vote is rapidly warming towards Rubio 4) By contrast, there are a lot of True Believer candidates in the mix, which leads to their support being fragmented and spread across a half-dozen goofballs (Carson/Huckabee/Jindal/Paul/Cruz/etc.)
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May 6, 2015 13:36
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Rubio's CIA torture comments were so loathsome I can't help but wish everything bad for him.
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May 6, 2015 13:48
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Joementum posted:hes_catching_on.gif Rand and Bernie are both in this nice video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYgVglm2xFY Personally, I'm disappointed in Rand's performance. That's the weakest libertarian response I've seen in a while, not what you'd expect from a Senator and easily clowned on by Franken. Dude is going to get destroyed in the GOP debates. edit ComradeCosmobot posted:Don't know about the rest of their programming, but I've found that their Nightly News program hasn't (yet) devolved to poo poo. I'm referring to the struggles inside the stations themselves. I've been working and volunteering at Houston's station for ten years and have seen them avoid working with anyone under forty every chance they've had (they like working with young kids, to be fair). They're also oddly scared of black people, or at least one of the paid staff sure is and has made it an issue over the years and that's been tolerated by management and that staff hasn't changed in almost two decades. Although Houston is doing better than most of their stations. The situation is like a couple of threads in D&D this week, a bunch of people on the same side of the political spectrum get to arguing over some pedantic bullshit instead of realizing that we all basically agree and should be working together against the larger enemy. Oh and the anti-vaxxers are all over the loving place, but that's common everywhere well-off white people congregate. Sir Tonk fucked around with this message at 14:13 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 13:58
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Sir Tonk posted:Dude is going to get destroyed in the GOP debates. One interesting aspect of this is that Rand is such an easy punching bag for the other Republicans that it will deflect some of the action from Bush.
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May 6, 2015 14:00
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Huckabee is the major scampaign this cycle, right? It seems the rest are either serious (Jeb and Rubio), running because they have no political futures otherwise (Perry, Christie, and Cruz), or have deluded themselves into thinking that they need to run (Carson and Fiorina).
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May 6, 2015 15:04
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joeburz posted:he has nice "not-bush" qualities, also he hates the cuba normalization process so that helps. vanilla ice cream is actually good, though
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May 6, 2015 15:05
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Shifty Pony posted:Huckabee is the major scampaign this cycle, right? It seems the rest are either serious (Jeb and Rubio), running because they have no political futures otherwise (Perry, Christie, and Cruz), or have deluded themselves into thinking that they need to run (Carson and Fiorina). Don't forget about (maybe) Trump. But then again he was never a serious candidate. V. Illych L. posted:vanilla ice cream is actually good, though French vanilla though.
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May 6, 2015 15:06
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What favors can the GOP bestow on Carson and Fiorina? I imagine that they're being pushed to be able to attack from a position of 'authenticity' on the identity politics issues and weaken the Democrats. Neither one strike me as megalomaniacs and they have enough money, so I'm assuming that they're being rewarded somehow. Or are they actually just that vain/crazy?
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May 6, 2015 15:34
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Rubio is looking pretty strong based on those numbers, and I'm failing to see many downsides for his campaign besides Senor Bush. It depends on how much of the establishment both in Florida and in other early primary states Bush has locked up, but if he can get the money I think Rubio is a real threat. He's also the biggest threat to Hillary in my mind. I think that the party will forgive his earlier immigration faux pas unless Bush/Walker wants to burn a lot of money attacking him over it, and it seems out of sync with Bush's current campaign. Immigration will have a huge role in the campaign, and I was happy to see Hillary hammering them over their bullshit "legal status" argument. In case anyone missed it: http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/05/05/a-path-to-citizenship-clinton-says-is-at-its-heart-a-family-issue/ fake edit: menino posted:What favors can the GOP bestow on Carson and Fiorina? I imagine that they're being pushed to be able to attack from a position of 'authenticity' on the identity politics issues and weaken the Democrats. Book tours, Fox News guest speaker/shows, TCOT radio shows, etc. I doubt the GOP establishment is interested in them even being in the race and sucking up valuable air time/messing up the debates, much less rewarding them for bringing up untenable stances on social issues.
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May 6, 2015 15:34
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Daduzi posted:Speaking of Kasich, I have a friend from Ohio who thinks he's decent. What terrible things has he done that I can use to disillusion my friend? Kasich presents himself in Ohio as a moderate more interested in making sure people do their jobs than in ideological purity. In 2013 he unilaterally expanded Medicaid, which surprised some of his conservative allies, and hasn't dismissed immigration reform like many of the other 2016 potential nominees. He supported a 2004 amendment to the Ohio constitution prohibiting same sex marriage, but recently said that he would attend a same-sex wedding. Kasich both expanded and renewed spending on infrastructure improvements, while also cutting taxes. The biggest issue in the 2014 election was JobsOhio, a secretive state agency created by Kasich to attract investment. The group is exempt from open-meeting and public-records laws, which has raised concerns about corruption and accountability. It receives public money but no one really knows if its attempts at job creation have been successful. He's not terrible. There's a reason he won 86 and Ohio's 88 counties, including Cuyahoga. QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 15:54 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 15:48
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QuoProQuid posted:He's not terrible. There's a reason he won 86 and Ohio's 88 counties, including Cuyahoga. The other reason is that Ohio's Democrats repeatedly field absolutely awful candidates for state elections. I lived in Ohio for the vast majority of my life (until a little over a year ago) and it's amazing how much the Democratic Party in that state loves to self-destruct. Kasich is one of the least repugnant Republican governors, at least.
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May 6, 2015 15:51
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Harrow posted:The other reason is that Ohio's Democrats repeatedly field absolutely awful candidates for state elections. I lived in Ohio for the vast majority of my life (until a little over a year ago) and it's amazing how much the Democratic Party in that state loves to self-destruct. Yeah, I wasn't thrilled by Fitzgerald. Still, Kasich has done a good job of attracting voters. If he decides to run in 2016, he has a good shot at the nomination.
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May 6, 2015 15:54
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This is your official notice that Bernie is no longer an acceptable candidate for D&D posters to back, having failed a second point of dogma beyond Israel. Posters other than Chris Christie found supporting Bernie after this post will be considered persona non grata in D&D and subject to regular public humiliation for supporting such an ideologically impure candidate (not like Hillary!) Bernie supporters may exchange their avatars and campaign buttons for Hillary campaign paraphernalia at their local branch office of the D&D Ministry of Free Thought. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 16:00 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 15:58
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ComradeCosmobot posted:This is your official notice that Bernie is no longer an acceptable candidate for D&D posters to back, having failed a second point of dogma beyond Israel. Third if you include him pulling a Rand Paul regarding Ferguson.
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May 6, 2015 16:00
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ComradeCosmobot posted:This is your official notice that Bernie is no longer an acceptable candidate for D&D posters to back, having failed a second point of dogma beyond Israel. Posters other than Chris Christie found supporting Bernie after this post will be considered persona non grata in D&D and subject to regular public humiliation for supporting such an ideologically impure candidate (not like Hillary!) So this Senator supports Israel, guns, healthcare, and isn't Hillary? Hmmm. If he's a serious contender, I may just vote for him.
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May 6, 2015 16:02
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My Imaginary GF posted:So this Senator supports Israel, guns, healthcare, and isn't Hillary? Hmmm. If he's a serious contender, I may just vote for him. I think the D&D Hive Mind can grant you an exception, provided you're willing to make playing up Bernie's conservative bona fides your gimmick for the week.
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May 6, 2015 16:08
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The Democrats approach to gun control is one of the stupidest, least evidence-based, most moronic wastes of political capital in recent memory. I say this as someone who'd rather have zero guns in private hands. We have an enormous problem with guns in this country, and an even bigger problem with gun culture, macho vigilante culture. The only level of gun control that would actually make any sort of dent in gun deaths would be one that restricted people to need-based carrying, which is so far from politically possible right now it's the moon. We need to change the culture before we can change the laws; whatever small bits of legislative gun control are enacted now in the wake of tragedies are going to be able to pointed at by pro-gun people as silly and nonfunctional legislation, because they are.
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May 6, 2015 16:13
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Gun control is a dead issue and the sooner the Democrats realize this the better. They should just keep their mouths shut whenever they are asked about it.
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May 6, 2015 16:15
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Joementum posted:New Quinnipiac Iowa poll shows trouble ahead for Bush. This is a very bad poll for Jeb Bush. He's not expected to win Iowa, but he is expected to be top 3. 7th place would rattle him. New Hampshire becomes a must win.
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May 6, 2015 16:18
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Huge_Midget posted:Gun control is a dead issue and the sooner the Democrats realize this the better. They should just keep their mouths shut whenever they are asked about it. Outside of a few flare-ups recently and a few congress people having it as their pet issue, the Democrats have been following that playbook for like 20 years. The thing is, though, that it didn't do a drat thing to stem any of the rhetoric from the NRA. They'd probably have been better off sticking with a gun control reform agenda since they were gonna be attacked on that front no matter what. The only issue with that is that gun control wasn't a huge policy concern for most Americans. So it was a divisive issue they weren't really gaining very many voters over, and it gave the GOP the opportunity to fundraise off the counter ideological position. So their instinct to jettison it was pretty logical, but the damage had already been done. Instead of realizing they'd be in the same position whether they actually fought for real reform or not, they decided to drop it. So it was pretty worthless strategy. There's no reform and the Dems gain no voters over it since they can't win the messaging against the GOP on it. This is something really smart that Hillary realized for her 2016 campaign. Populist issues are somewhat popular right now, and the right wing has been hammering her for decades about being a Marxist/leftist despite being one of the people involved in creating the Third Way movement. By doing that they have essentially given her room to run to the left since the GOP rhetoric on that topic will ring hollow since it's the same poo poo they've been saying about her since the 90's. So that means Dems get higher voter turnout over it maybe, and then also there's a chance at reforms when she's elected. ErIog fucked around with this message at 16:27 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 16:18
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Is there any way to change the first primary voting states to ones that arent terrible
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May 6, 2015 16:20
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Huge_Midget posted:Gun control is a dead issue and the sooner the Democrats realize this the better. They should just keep their mouths shut whenever they are asked about it. Given how much of the democratic party line on guns is that we should restrict them to the wealthy and their bodyguards, it should be unsurprising that any leftist or socialist would be against it.
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May 6, 2015 16:22
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:Is there any way to change the first primary voting states to ones that arent terrible Such as?
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May 6, 2015 16:25
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Cigar Aficionado posted:This is a very bad poll for Jeb Bush. He's not expected to win Iowa, but he is expected to be top 3. 7th place would rattle him. New Hampshire becomes a must win. He does have eight months or so to improve his position. I don't expect Bush to be terribly worried about his position when most people haven't even started thinking about the election.
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May 6, 2015 16:26
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Such as? Florida and Mississippi 
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May 6, 2015 16:28
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ErIog posted:Outside of a few flare-ups recently and a few congress people having it as their pet issue, the Democrats have been following that playbook for like 20 years. You seem to have forgotten about all the grandstanding post-Newtown including a poo poo show in the senate, multiple speeches about gun control from Obama and Biden, and several successful and significant changes in law at the state/city level. Also some dumb executive orders that didn't do a whole hell of a lot. Hell, it even gave us that goofy gif of Biden miming firing a shotgun. Also I guess it was passed 21 years ago but the federal AWB only dies 11 years ago.
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May 6, 2015 16:28
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:Is there any way to change the first primary voting states to ones that arent terrible Not until Bill Gardner (Secretary of State of New Hampshire since 1976, age 66) retires or dies. He treats this as his personal crusade.
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May 6, 2015 16:32
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ComradeCosmobot posted:This is your official notice that Bernie is no longer an acceptable candidate for D&D posters to back, having failed a second point of dogma beyond Israel. Posters other than Chris Christie found supporting Bernie after this post will be considered persona non grata in D&D and subject to regular public humiliation for supporting such an ideologically impure candidate (not like Hillary!) Good, the PLCAA owns. Killer robot posted:Given how much of the democratic party line on guns is that we should restrict them to the wealthy and their bodyguards, it should be unsurprising that any leftist or socialist would be against it. Exactly. I may have to take a second look at Bernie...
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May 6, 2015 16:32
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QuoProQuid posted:He does have eight months or so to improve his position. I don't expect Bush to be terribly worried about his position when most people haven't even started thinking about the election. Plus they broadened the field, adding Fiorina and Kasich, while others (Rubio and Cruz) have surged in response to being man of the hour. Bush hasn't even announced yet, so he hasn't been able to benefit from a similar boost. The biggest thing Bush needs to worry about there is the fact that Walker seems to have a 20% floor this early on which hasn't gone anywhere despite his fading from the headlines. (EDIT: Not that that's all that surprising since Walker is governor of a neighboring state) Unless he can actually find something on Walker, he could easily get third or worse since they're competing for the same wing of the party. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 16:36 on May 6, 2015 |
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May 6, 2015 16:32
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Such as? Howbout Colorado
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May 6, 2015 16:41
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What is it about Santorum that puts his floor in polls and elections so abnormally low for a Republican? Sweater-vest hatred? "PAPISTS  "?
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May 6, 2015 16:43
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Joementum posted:Not until Bill Gardner (Secretary of State of New Hampshire since 1976, age 66) retires or dies. He treats this as his personal crusade. Holy poo poo, elected at 27 and in the same position for 39 years. The man knows where he wants to be in life.
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May 6, 2015 16:47
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quote:Sanders, an independent from Vermont, drew support from 13% of likely Democratic primary voters, according to the poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center before Sanders' announced his candidacy for president last month. The senator's support doubled from a February poll by the same group that found 6% of Democratic primary voters supported the independent. http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/06/politics/bernie-sanders-poll-new-hampshire-2016-elections/ When are they going to start doing these polls without Warren? Isn't it pretty certain at this point she isn't running?
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May 6, 2015 16:50
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joeburz posted:he has nice "not-bush" qualities, also he hates the cuba normalization process so that helps. I prefer to think of him as Scott "Plain Oatmeal" Walker.
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May 6, 2015 16:50
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/06/politics/bernie-sanders-poll-new-hampshire-2016-elections/ She hasn't double pinky swore that she wasn't running, so the door's still open!
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May 6, 2015 16:58
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/06/politics/bernie-sanders-poll-new-hampshire-2016-elections/ Warren could die today and in a week a poll would be released stating her corpse's numbers.
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May 6, 2015 17:00
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Huge_Midget posted:Gun control is a dead issue and the sooner the Democrats realize this the better. They should just keep their mouths shut whenever they are asked about it. The problem with gun control is that it as a political issue is sort of dead in the water, with the well being thoroughly poisoned, but guns are very much a real public health concern. So if a politician actually wants to do the right thing for the good of the public with regards to gun control, he/she is sort of screwed from the get go.
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