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a cop posted:After like 6 months of trading 1k w/ robinhood I'm down 160. I was up about the same amount at one point. DON'T DO IT!!!!!!!! I fixed this for you incase someone thinks going to vegas with $200 think they will be able to play blackjack and win rainman money.
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May 8, 2015 14:12
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Elephanthead posted:I fixed this for you incase someone thinks going to vegas with $200 think they will be able to play blackjack and win rainman money. Yeah if you expect to seriously play blackjack in vegas you need $1000/day. And that's playing $10 tables with lovely player odds. My advice is go to the Paris casino party pit and sit at a $10 table with a smoking hot dealer so you get something out of the experience.
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May 8, 2015 14:58
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fruition posted:Yeah if you expect to seriously play blackjack in vegas you need $1000/day. And that's playing $10 tables with lovely player odds. My advice is go to the Paris casino party pit and sit at a $10 table with a smoking hot dealer. Or, you know, sell stocks when they are up to collect a gain, instead of holding everything until you lose $160. Edit: also who is the asshat that made a fund called the markit ishares iboxx $$$$.
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May 8, 2015 14:59
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Who are these idiot companies that are going to buy YELP or CRM? Do they exist? I don't think they exist.
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May 8, 2015 15:03
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Arkane posted:Who are these idiot companies that are going to buy YELP or CRM? I hope not.
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May 8, 2015 15:04
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Whoever the EBIX guy is, now is the time to sell your ownership in this garbage & potentially fraud-ridden company.
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May 8, 2015 15:16
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I've been very skeptical of OUTR, Outerwall aka Redbox/Coinstar, Redbox is a shrinking business that has a 100% chance to die to streaming/On-Demand...but this quarter won me over. It's not shrinking as fast as I would've thought, and it's generating a lot of earnings in the meantime. I'm in for a couple of hundred shares at 70. Somebody I read on another forum highly recommends it. Another name where the shorts have been dead wrong. There is >50% short interest. If they had a better balance sheet I'd consider a larger position. You should read their financial statements and listen to the conference call before investing, but the tl;dr is they generate a shitload of cash and they return virtually all of it to shareholders via buybacks. Attractive EV/EBITDA.
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May 8, 2015 15:40
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Torpor posted:Edit: also who is the asshat that made a fund called the markit ishares iboxx $$$$. If I remember this right, that ridiculous name is the result of a bunch of mergers. First there was iBoxx, I think it was bought by Lehman's ishares, which became a part of Barclays, and who knows how Markit ended up with it.
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May 8, 2015 15:40
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Arkane posted:I've been very skeptical of OUTR, Outerwall aka Redbox/Coinstar, Redbox is a shrinking business that has a 100% chance to die to streaming/On-Demand...but this quarter won me over. It's not shrinking as fast as I would've thought, and it's generating a lot of earnings in the meantime. I'm in for a couple of hundred shares at 70. Somebody I read on another forum highly recommends it. Another name where the shorts have been dead wrong. There is >50% short interest. If they had a better balance sheet I'd consider a larger position. I think the redbox thing is successful because you can get the newer movies that you can't get on netflix, and the other on demand services that have the new release movies aren't as apparent or convenient to the average consumer yet. I was surprised how many of my coworkers have netflix, hbo go, hulu, amazon prime video, but are still renting 2-3 redbox movies a week.
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May 8, 2015 18:26
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EAB posted:I was surprised how many of my coworkers have netflix, hbo go, hulu, amazon prime video, but are still renting 2-3 redbox movies a week. God bless america. Are you also surprised at how many people have absolutely no savings?
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May 8, 2015 18:35
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EAB posted:I think the redbox thing is successful because you can get the newer movies that you can't get on netflix, and the other on demand services that have the new release movies aren't as apparent or convenient to the average consumer yet.  I have all of those except hulu, and my wife still rents stuff from redbox once or twice a month. It's really near our house, and there's an app for our tablets that tells us what's actually in stock at the local kiosk, so we can reserve it for long enough to go get it. It's cheaper than paying for on-demand movies on direcTV.
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May 8, 2015 18:35
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fruition posted:Yeah if you expect to seriously play blackjack in vegas you need $1000/day. And that's playing $10 tables with lovely player odds. My advice is go to the Paris casino party pit and sit at a $10 table with a smoking hot dealer so you get something out of the experience. You could also learn basic strategy in an afternoon and play at a big boy table. The comps you earn balance out the slightly negative expectation. You still need at least a K/day budgeted to handle the variance though.
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May 8, 2015 18:38
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Baddog posted:God bless america. Are you also surprised at how many people have absolutely no savings? That all adds up to less than $60/mo. God bless america!!!
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May 8, 2015 18:41
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DNova posted:That all adds up to less than $60/mo. God bless america!!! If you can't want a month or two for a movie to come out on streaming (when you already have nearly unlimited choices for poo poo to feed into your eyeballs), you're probably blowing bigger amounts in every other area of your life. Sorry if I offended habitual redbox users in this thread.
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May 8, 2015 18:56
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Baddog posted:You could also learn basic strategy in an afternoon and play at a big boy table. The comps you earn balance out the slightly negative expectation. You still need at least a K/day budgeted to handle the variance though. My last blackjack derail I promise. I always play perfect basic strategy by the book and I still get crushed, even at $25 tables with a 3:2 natural payout, hand shuffle, 6 deck game with everyone else at the table playing by the book. I once lost 20 out of 24 consecutive hands, quickest $500 I ever lost. What are the odds of that even happening? I've also seen a dealer get 7 naturals in a ROW (At a $25 table with favorable odds). I don't go to a casino expecting to leave with any of the money I walk in with, but I at least want to see some action for a few hours. In my experience the big boy tables just mean you'll blow up your bankroll faster.
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May 8, 2015 19:29
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fruition posted:My last blackjack derail I promise. I always play perfect basic strategy by the book and I still get crushed, even at $25 tables with a 3:2 natural payout, hand shuffle, 6 deck game with everyone else at the table playing by the book. There's a reason Baddog mentioned needing to have a large bankroll to take the swings.
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May 8, 2015 19:35
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Baddog posted:If you can't want a month or two for a movie to come out on streaming (when you already have nearly unlimited choices for poo poo to feed into your eyeballs), you're probably blowing bigger amounts in every other area of your life. Sorry if I offended habitual redbox users in this thread. I'm not. If you're a habitual redbox user: gently caress you.
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May 8, 2015 19:35
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Baddog posted:God bless america. Are you also surprised at how many people have absolutely no savings? Can we not do frugality bragging? Add all that poo poo up and it amounts to less than two bar nights, one football game, or all sorts of other poo poo I'm sure everyone here spends money on at one point or another.
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May 8, 2015 19:38
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Baddog posted:If you can't want a month or two for a movie to come out on streaming (when you already have nearly unlimited choices for poo poo to feed into your eyeballs), you're probably blowing bigger amounts in every other area of your life. Sorry if I offended habitual redbox users in this thread. Keep offending them. My roommate does a RedBox or two a week. How it works: It's Sunday. You think to yourself, "I'm bored. I'll go grab a movie and I'll watch it tonight and return it tomorrow." but then you have a long day at work on Monday and just as you're leaving the office you realize you have to drive home, grab the movie, and then drive to the kiosk to return it so you think "Eh, it's only $2 a day. I'll return it tomorrow." and then it's Tuesday and your friends are like "bro lets go watch the game at a bar" and you wake up Wednesday morning and see the Redbox on the kitchen counter and you're like "TODAY'S THE DAY!" and you toss it in with your work stuff and then you actually finally return the loving thing on Friday. And you've just spent like $12. Except you rented THREE MOVIES and now you owe $36. You're like "gently caress THIS" but then Sunday night rolls around and you think to yourself "I'm bored...". And that is how a $2/day rental turns into a $100+/month habit. Yes, the majority of people keep one item a day or two but Redbox needs customers like my roommate. And there are a lot of them.
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May 8, 2015 19:41
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The rich jerk thread should not be discussing $100 a week habits as expensive.
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May 8, 2015 19:57
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Elephanthead posted:I fixed this for you incase someone thinks going to vegas with $200 think they will be able to play blackjack and win rainman money. It's easy to stretch money in vegas mother fucker!! Especially if you're a hot shooter!!!
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May 8, 2015 19:59
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Elephanthead posted:The rich jerk thread should not be discussing $100 a week habits as expensive. I thought we were discussing why a company has earnings?
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May 8, 2015 20:10
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FreelanceSocialist posted:I thought we were discussing why a company has earnings? Right, any company that preys on the desire for immediate gratification and lack of impulse control is gonna do a lot better than general expectations in america. I mean, I think there's a reason my grocery store has redbox sitting next to the scratch ticket machine. I just can't bring myself to buy into that, and I think streaming is going to impact them eventually, sooner than I'd want to sell. It is just a much more convenient blockbuster, with a much shittier selection. Baddog fucked around with this message at 21:35 on May 8, 2015 |
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May 8, 2015 20:31
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I spend more than $100 a week on Hearthstone packs. This is my confession.
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May 8, 2015 22:52
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Mills posted:I spend more than $100 a week on Hearthstone packs. This is my confession. Are you amaz? Jeez.
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May 8, 2015 23:59
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silvergoose posted:Are you amaz? Jeez. No but I'm thinking of setting up a stream so I can try and tax deduct them. 
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May 9, 2015 00:34
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There's a redbox kiosk like 100 yards from my house, at the 7-11. They have an app you can use to see what is in stock. Occasionally we grab a blueray there for $2.00 and then return it in the morning. It's cheaper than on-demand pay-per-view and we only do it when there's a new release we want that isn't on netflix yet. I've never paid them a late fee. I can see how folks would do that, but you have until 9pm the day after you rent to return it for the one-day price. There is a maximum charge (after which you've "bought" the item and get to keep it, whee!). How do you feel about paying $34 for a used blu-ray?. Now that is a good deal for Redbox. Their business model is only threatened by streaming if/when the studios decide to allow people to stream films immediately after they stop being in theaters. Currently, those films are held for a period, during which they're marketed via rentals like Redbox, and pay-per-view on cable and satellite networks. Only after that revenue stream has been exploited, are they marketed out to premium cable channels like HBO (with a streaming option), and then to Hulu/Netflix/Amazon/whatever. This is all very carefully designed to maximize revenues at every step, and RedBox is absolutely part of that plan.
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May 9, 2015 00:36
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Arkane posted:Whoever the EBIX guy is, now is the time to sell your ownership in this garbage & potentially fraud-ridden company. No !!!! At least not yet. I sold 75% of my original position in March. Bought more when it dipped before earnings; sold those all today. Maybe in the near future?! Until then I'm feeling pretty good about my 100% return YTD!
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May 9, 2015 01:03
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Arkane posted:I've been very skeptical of OUTR, Outerwall aka Redbox/Coinstar, Redbox is a shrinking business that has a 100% chance to die to streaming/On-Demand...but this quarter won me over. It's not shrinking as fast as I would've thought, and it's generating a lot of earnings in the meantime. I'm in for a couple of hundred shares at 70. You post this the day they get a 12% gain. So would have ridden that train. We need you to be faster on the draw Arkane! Some of us are trying to get rich easy.
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May 9, 2015 01:12
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Baddog posted:Right, any company that preys on the desire for immediate gratification and lack of impulse control is gonna do a lot better than general expectations in america. I mean, I think there's a reason my grocery store has redbox sitting next to the scratch ticket machine.
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May 9, 2015 13:27
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Blockbuster died because it was running a full-blown retail chain. It filled those big stores with movies, and most of that inventory had to be movies that weren't brand new releases... because there's only so many new movies each month. So most of their inventory had to compete with Netflix (and if they'd survived, Amazon, HBO Go, etc.) Redbox's overhead is tiny in comparison, and while their kiosks do carry older films, their bread and butter is the new releases. I'm not arguing, necessarily, that people should invest in Redbox. Only that Redbox sits in a specific niche (the window of time between when a movie leaves theaters and when it becomes available for streaming, and broadcast on cable/satellite channels) that has been deliberately created by the major film release structures used by all of the big movie distributors. They are not the only provider sitting in that niche, but they're dominating it right now. Their business likely hinges on this artificial structure continuing into the future: they likely understand this, and they likely actively negotiate with those big distributors to preserve it. The distributors will preserve it as long as it's both legal, and the most profitable structure they can envision. Redbox also rents video games. I have no idea if they compete effectively with the other video game rental companies (this includes netflix), but my guess is that they rent a lot fewer games than movies, but that the games tend to rent for much longer periods of time. So from an investor's standpoint, I would look at the company's revenues, and if they're rising, that's a strong indicator that they - and by extension, the distributors - are happy with the arrangement and will continue to use it.
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May 9, 2015 18:33
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It could be a fine short to medium term investment, but Arkane is right - there is a 100% chance the business (as currently structured) will die due to streaming. Netflix used to be the DVD mailing business, and something like Redbox may be able to tack just as successfully. But I don't see any signs of that, whereas Netflix started streaming around 2007 or so. The first time I streamed Netflix on an XBox I knew that poo poo was the future. I invested in Netflix back then, but sold a loooong time ago. I would only have a 2500% return today  luckily I was poor so I only invested like $2k back then anyway. Oh god now I'm thinking about the other things I was invested in back in 2007 like Apple and Baidu. I think I should just buy and hold
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May 9, 2015 19:13
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District Selectman posted:It could be a fine short to medium term investment, but Arkane is right - there is a 100% chance the business (as currently structured) will die due to streaming. Every business will eventually die, unless you don't believe in entropy, but the heat-death of the universe is a long, long way away. Much more nearer-term, guessing exactly when a given business' model is going to become extinct is a pretty difficult trick. I agree that streaming is the future, but we don't even have ubiquitous high-speed internet in the US, and internationally it's a mixed bag, with a few countries way way out ahead of us, and others - like Australia - with such woeful clusterfucks of infrastructure that it'd take a decade of investment to reverse. And I'm not just talking about last-mile broadband/fibre. The growing popularity of streaming video is absolutely crushing major backbones, too. The Internet noticeably slows down on Friday nights in the US. And you really do have to address the (practically-speaking, since they collude) monopoly of the major movie distributors. Red Box is sustainable as long as major movies are only available via their service during a window of a month or six weeks, before they hit a streaming service. The availability of broadband doesn't change that fact. So I'll kick this back to you and say: what do you mean by "short to medium term"? This thread generally seems to be concerned with trading stocks on a basis of as little as a few minutes, and as much as a few months, but I don't see much discussion of buy-and-hold multi-year strategies. quote:Oh god now I'm thinking about the other things I was invested in back in 2007 like Apple and Baidu. I think I should just buy and hold Ah. Welcome to the long-term investing and retirement thread, comrade. It turns out that yes, buy-and-hold-for-decades is a good idea. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:27 on May 9, 2015 |
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May 9, 2015 20:24
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Leperflesh posted:Every business will eventually die, unless you don't believe in entropy, but the heat-death of the universe is a long, long way away. Much more nearer-term, guessing exactly when a given business' model is going to become extinct is a pretty difficult trick. I agree that streaming is the future, but we don't even have ubiquitous high-speed internet in the US, and internationally it's a mixed bag, with a few countries way way out ahead of us, and others - like Australia - with such woeful clusterfucks of infrastructure that it'd take a decade of investment to reverse. I like my stock trading discussions existential; the long term return on all investments is death for you and everyone you love  But, I dunno, I'd say short to medium term is a few seconds to maybe a year? I agree, it seems pretty apparent Redbox is going to die, so I would assume that's priced in and investing in them is a wager on how long they can stave off the reaper. If they're priced for annihilation in two years but you think they've got five - it's a good bet. Leperflesh posted:Ah. Welcome to the long-term investing and retirement thread, comrade. It turns out that yes, buy-and-hold-for-decades is a good idea. I have many years in that thread brother. Our lord and savior Boggle has taught me much, but I continue to be a heretic and dabble in the dark arts of buying and selling individual stocks. I displease the Lord Boggle with my ways.
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May 9, 2015 21:00
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I think Redbox is a dying dog. Profitable now but only by the grace of the current market / studio greed. They could be gone tomorrow with a new licensing deal for streaming...something like $1 "in app purchasing" for Netflix to open up a category of new releases. That could happen overnight. They are on the razor's edge. I started a small position in KMX last week after hitting up one of their locations. I like how they do business. And...I think we are headed for a large market correction so I'm staying 90% cash hoping to buy bargains. My positions are all very small at the moment. Stugazi fucked around with this message at 21:59 on May 9, 2015 |
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May 9, 2015 21:32
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District Selectman posted:I have many years in that thread brother. Our lord and savior Boggle has taught me much, but I continue to be a heretic and dabble in the dark arts of buying and selling individual stocks. I displease the Lord Boggle with my ways. "What would Robert Boggle do?"
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May 9, 2015 22:21
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Redbox ain't going anywhere anytime soon. I can't even watch Half-baked or most any big budget feature movie--ever on Netflix. I use my Netflix for some of their original programming, but they are terrible as far as having popular movie titles. Try to watch batman or Star Wars. Hell, I don't think they have any Will Ferrel or Danny McBridge movies even. I don't use redbox anymore since my home doesn't have a device with an optical drive any longer, but there are lines at red box every time I drive by one. We are still a long way from legal streaming services replacing cable entirely, and red box is like your average joes first step to cutting cable.
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May 9, 2015 22:58
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RedBox could live and prosper. Sure, anything is possible. Or, their business model could be made obsolete overnight when new releases are made available on netflix or iTunes for "in app" additional rental fees. Sounds like natural evolution to me. EDIT: I won't be overly argumentative. I can see both sides and I think we've both made good and valid points. Stugazi fucked around with this message at 00:37 on May 10, 2015 |
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May 10, 2015 00:34
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Any thoughts on Twitter around these levels? I cant figure out how they aren't insanely profitable yet here we are. If news came along that Costolo was out I could see it going up 10% on the news alone, very tempted
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May 10, 2015 22:40
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R.A. Dickey posted:Any thoughts on Twitter around these levels? I cant figure out how they aren't insanely profitable yet here we are. If news came along that Costolo was out I could see it going up 10% on the news alone, very tempted I was thinking the same, seems like a good gambling opportunity, could jump on the slightest positive rumor. Buy when CNBC hates it, sell when they love it again
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May 11, 2015 02:17
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