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mlmp08 posted:Just hold onto ANR a little longer.... -RichardGamingo
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May 27, 2015 00:10
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mlmp08 posted:Just hold onto ANR a little longer.... ACLS is about to surge. I can feel it. And I need it before my Vegas trip..
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May 27, 2015 08:02
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mlmp08 posted:Just hold onto ANR a little longer.... sorry for your lots 
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May 27, 2015 15:44
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:sorry for your lots Haha, I am no one of the "coal is the future" folk. I just remember ANR getting pumped by a few posters for reasons that didn't make a lot of sense.
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May 27, 2015 15:59
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BKW continues to gain 17.03% every single day according to Google Finance. It should be worth more than AAPL by now.
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May 27, 2015 16:26
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Bought 1000 shares of KORS this morning, average price of 48.62, underwater right now but whatever. This is I think a bet weighted in my favor. The company has a market cap of about 9.4b (at its current price of ~47), tangible book value of 2.2b. Enterprise value of 8.5b. EV/EBITDA of about 6.1, which is not absurdly cheap but is pretty drat cheap in the current market. KORS is guiding to earnings this year of 4.45 a share (they frequently guide low, but we'll stick with that). Backing out the cash, we're trading at 10x trailing 12 months earnings and 9.5 times forward 12 months. So the assumption with this stock price is around 0 growth (they just grew revenue 32% in the past year, and are guiding to 9% growth in the next 12 months). I don't think there's much to dislike about the company at this valuation.
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May 27, 2015 16:40
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Short hypothesis, DENN: - Price/Book is over 200 - PE ratio is over 25 - They are tapping a credit facility to do share buybacks in addition to rolling profits into the buyback. - There's nothing to suggest that Denny's is a huge growth stock opportunity. Its loving Denny's. - Momentum in the past month or so seems to have turned against it. It might be a fine and profitable business but not at the current price, and the price seems to be really inflated right now. Please criticize and tell me why this will be an expensive education.
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May 27, 2015 17:07
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The problem with KORS is one that ratios won't show you: in their efforts to pump earnings they are doing significant damage to their brand. It won't be long before you'll find their stuff at Kmart. I wouldn't want to be long OR short it.
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May 27, 2015 17:24
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mrmcd posted:Short hypothesis, DENN: EV/EBITDA of 12.5 is not outrageous in this market (I think it's right around where the S&P 500 trades), so you could probably find a better shorting candidate if that is what you are looking to do. But yeah everything else there is ugly. You actually painted too rosey of a picture of the price to book. The tangible book value is negative 75 million.
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May 27, 2015 17:25
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Agronox posted:The problem with KORS is one that ratios won't show you: in their efforts to pump earnings they are doing significant damage to their brand. It won't be long before you'll find their stuff at Kmart. This is based on real-world information or something you just randomly made up?
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May 27, 2015 17:31
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Agronox posted:The problem with KORS is one that ratios won't show you: in their efforts to pump earnings they are doing significant damage to their brand. It won't be long before you'll find their stuff at Kmart. I'm too scared to go into KORS I think but I don't understand the problem with kors handbags ending up in Kmart. Couldn't luxury items get a huge bump by selling out their brand's cache? If kors becomes untrendy, couldn't they just start making cheap poo poo to capitalize on the brand they built up over the last few years? If the fundamentals of the business are strong enough to do so, why wouldn't they be able to cash out?
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May 27, 2015 17:39
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mrmcd posted:Short hypothesis, DENN: I've always hated Denny's and have never understood how they were still in business. Did they even do their Baconalia thing this year? Always remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
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May 27, 2015 18:56
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b-but..the market is always rational..and so efficient!
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May 27, 2015 18:57
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mlmp08 posted:Haha, I am no one of the "coal is the future" folk. I just remember ANR getting pumped by a few posters for reasons that didn't make a lot of sense. Some guy at an Ivy League did a research paper saying it could only go up up up or something. That is a stone cold lock for guaranteed profits in some people's minds I guess.
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May 27, 2015 18:58
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I was right about ACLS surging!! Glad I held until this conference thing that happened today. Probably gonna hold even more..whatever.
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May 27, 2015 21:50
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Arkane posted:This is based on real-world information or something you just randomly made up? No he's right. If you pay attention to fashion (or like me, live and breathe fashion) the brand is quickly being devalued. We saw it before with Coach (although, I do think Coach is doing a decent job of fixing that).
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May 27, 2015 21:57
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Rurutia posted:No he's right. If you pay attention to fashion (or like me, live and breathe fashion) the brand is quickly being devalued. We saw it before with Coach (although, I do think Coach is doing a decent job of fixing that). Anything besides anecdotes? The financial statements don't bear this out to be true. Where we would see this showing up is inventory build-up commensurate with decreases in profit margins. Yet inventories are almost exactly where they were a year ago relative to sales, and profit margins are almost exactly the same. This would imply pricing power is still there. Couple this with the dramatic expansion in sales year over year, and one could even say that "the brand is quickly being devalued" is dead wrong (thus far). Which isn't to say that you won't be right in the future.
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May 27, 2015 23:17
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Arkane posted:Anything besides anecdotes? I think we're using different definitions for brand devaluation. Brand devaluation (at least in the fashion world) means that what was seen as a high end brand might be seen as a middle tier brand. I'm talking about trends you see in fashion communities which lead the way for the masses. MK stuff has been flooding into budget 'high-fashion discount' stores. High sales because people are buying them in those situations doesn't contradict the above definition of brand devaluation. You might not see the effects soon and you might not see it at all if they can reverse sentiment or settle into their new market well. You might even make a lot of money on it but I'm explaining why people are cautious around that KORS stock and why I would never touch it. It's nothing like the SAFM situation you posted about previously. Anyways, your technical analysis is on point. We both know that when you're going long on a stock these trends do matter. Rurutia fucked around with this message at 23:42 on May 27, 2015 |
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May 27, 2015 23:37
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quote:High sales because people are buying them in those situations doesn't contradict the above definition of brand devaluation. A stable profit margin would seem to suggest they aren't discounting too hard. Anyway, I think they're oversold, so I'm in for a bit.
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May 28, 2015 00:16
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Seadrill will totally go up at some point, assuming their debt doesn't catch them first. Openfolio is absolute poo poo at reading my accounts and printing a graph from them. Edit: also I wish I had bought valeant (vrx) just a year ago, holy moly. double edit: seadrill earnings came in okay; which means 
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May 28, 2015 02:43
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My uncle has been in high management at Valeant for at least 10 years now so I can only imagine how filthy rich he's become in that time. I hope his insistence that I sign up for my comapny's ESSP wasn't out of regret!
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May 28, 2015 15:39
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Sold out of IDRA for about 17% profit. Stock keeps on spiking, I a bright future for all their drugs. Going to jump back in when the market calms down a bit.
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May 28, 2015 16:19
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Gorman Thomas posted:My uncle has been in high management at Valeant for at least 10 years now so I can only imagine how filthy rich he's become in that time. I hope his insistence that I sign up for my comapny's ESSP wasn't out of regret! I'm sitting on like 200k worth of company stock I've accumulated over the years as part of my compensation, a large part of that because the price has tripled in value since I joined, and nearly doubled in the last year. It's a nice bonus (especially since I still get dividends on the unvested or untradable parts too), but it kinda make me nervous having that much of my net worth in one symbol. 
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May 28, 2015 16:32
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WTW a buy it and forget about it for 5 years here
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May 28, 2015 17:31
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greasyhands posted:WTW a buy it and forget about it for 5 years here 6.4x EV/EBITDA for a stake in a company that has a significantly above 0% chance of going bankrupt in the next 5 years? edit: Yahoo was calculating EV/EBITDA wrong, corrected Arkane fucked around with this message at 18:06 on May 28, 2015 |
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May 28, 2015 18:01
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Arkane posted:6.4x EV/EBITDA for a stake in a company that has a significantly above 0% chance of going bankrupt in the next 5 years? I almost responded but then I decided he was trolling. You have to be, right guy???
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May 28, 2015 18:29
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mrmcd posted:I'm sitting on like 200k worth of company stock I've accumulated over the years as part of my compensation, a large part of that because the price has tripled in value since I joined, and nearly doubled in the last year. I know this is the gambling thread, but in the long-term investing thread we'd tell you to sell most or all of that stock (the vested portion, at least). It's not only a big chunk of your net worth in one security, it's a double-risk because your employment is also tied to that one company. E.g., the company going suddenly busto, Enron style, could leave your portfolio crushed and you unemployed. A lot of Enron employees famously found this out the very hard way, but they're not the only ones, they just had more mainstream press attention. Assuming you have no insider info, you probably can find other investment vehicles with similar future prospects to diversify into.
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May 28, 2015 18:59
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EV/EBITDA is a terrible metric for an asset poor, cash flow/ROC rich company with an extremely strong brand. ttm EBITDA is equal to market cap. They are going to go through a rough patch (and ttm EBITDA is going to go way down), but the bet is they will recover and the brand itself is worth a ton of money. I'm essentially making the same value call here as I saw in NOK a couple of years ago- the balance sheet doesn't reveal the value inherent here. They have struggled against fads in the past, and they won out in the end every time. This is a 50+ year old company with a real track record. Obviously a speculative play.
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May 28, 2015 19:15
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Leperflesh posted:I know this is the gambling thread, but in the long-term investing thread we'd tell you to sell most or all of that stock (the vested portion, at least). It's not only a big chunk of your net worth in one security, it's a double-risk because your employment is also tied to that one company. E.g., the company going suddenly busto, Enron style, could leave your portfolio crushed and you unemployed. Yeah I know. I actually cashed out a good chunk last spring with an employee buyback (then dumped about half that on taxes for vesting stock and exercised options woooo). The rest is either unvested or has a 1 year trading restriction. At least I get ~5% a year in dividends while waiting it out.
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May 28, 2015 19:42
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greasyhands posted:EV/EBITDA is a terrible metric for an asset poor, cash flow/ROC rich company with an extremely strong brand. ttm EBITDA is equal to market cap. They are going to go through a rough patch (and ttm EBITDA is going to go way down), but the bet is they will recover and the brand itself is worth a ton of money. I'm essentially making the same value call here as I saw in NOK a couple of years ago- the balance sheet doesn't reveal the value inherent here. I've been thinking about gambling on a 5-10 year recovery but haven't done any research on the company's plans moving forward. Been riding the FEYE hype train lately, still holding HOS, and might grab some TDW if it continues getting crushed.
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May 28, 2015 21:50
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fruition posted:I've been thinking about gambling on a 5-10 year recovery but haven't done any research on the company's plans moving forward. My long shot bet, besides Seadrill, is North Atlantic Drilling. That company can either get back on its feet and get into $2-3 territory in the next year or two if I'm lucky; if I'm real, real lucky it gets back to $5 territory. However, I bet the board of directors of NADL is probably seriously considering massive insurance fraud at this point.
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May 29, 2015 00:11
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neonbregna posted:Some guy at an Ivy League did a research paper saying it could only go up up up or something. That is a stone cold lock for guaranteed profits in some people's minds I guess. At least in the thread, it was one guy posting a meme and a pie chart that showed 50% of the 2012 or 2014 US generation mix as coal and saying that there was no way for them to fail. A lot of us posted data showing that the 50% o the mix was actually down from 70% over the past 5-10 years. (He claimed the trend would reverse). Not to mention EPA clean air rules (he hand waved that away as EPA being on thin ice?). Plus company statements from Duke Energy that they would never build a coal plant, PJM closing a poo poo load of coal plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the fact that it's a lot harder to transport the volumes of coal needed compared to natural gas. As someone who works in the power industry, I'd recommend not investing in that particular industry that my entire office refers to as "dead."
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May 29, 2015 13:37
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Daedalus Esquire posted:
Pffft! Something something weak hands strong hands!!
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May 29, 2015 15:18
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I'm reading Cramer's Real Money right now - what are people's thoughts on it? Some of his advice seems good, and he justifies his position on things, but most of the book feels like it is him bragging about how awesome he was back in the day?
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May 29, 2015 15:44
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FreelanceSocialist posted:I'm reading Cramer's Real Money right now - what are people's thoughts on it? Some of his advice seems good, and he justifies his position on things, but most of the book feels like it is him bragging about how awesome he was back in the day? I like his books for the most part. They're entertaining if nothing else, just like the show. But like you mentioned you have to separate the signal from the noise. For me, Cramer's books have been a jumping off point into higher level investing books over the years.
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May 29, 2015 16:36
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FreelanceSocialist posted:I'm reading Cramer's Real Money right now - what are people's thoughts on it? Some of his advice seems good, and he justifies his position on things, but most of the book feels like it is him bragging about how awesome he was back in the day? Not really much desire to read it...I think this Youtube is illuminating on Cramer's character/intelligence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI
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May 29, 2015 16:51
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I'm still in ATVI. Hearth still solidly in the top five on twitch. Hero's of the Storm is open beta with a June release; sitting around 20 on twitch. LoL and DOTA2 are just so popular I'm not sure how HotS can break in, going to be watching tho. It's more casual/streamlined game play so the hardcore guys might dismiss it. Anyway I'm going to be watching to see how much, if any, it moves up after release.
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May 29, 2015 18:40
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Forgive my inexperience but as something occurring I feel the need to ask. I bought some shares of a company using my robinhood account, under $5 worth, it was at .70c a share and I felt like just having some fun. I just received an email stating that they are considering a 1-4 through 1-10 reverse split. The stock climbed a bit today and probably will climb more. What does this mean for me besides a consolidation of my shares? I'm still learning here.
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May 29, 2015 23:07
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I get pretty jealous hearing about guys making bank on ESPPs. This is my general experience with them, and where 10% of my gross salary went: https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...TK8ugjAH09YC4Dw
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May 30, 2015 00:15
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Blimpkin posted:Forgive my inexperience but as something occurring I feel the need to ask. why will it climb more do you think? They probably have to be above $1 to stay listed on whatever exchange it is, therefore they have to split or get de-listed. Doesn't mean anything for you. The market cap stays the same. There may be people buying or selling based on the split for whatever psychological reason, but it has 0 impact on the business itself.
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May 30, 2015 00:45
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