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This Jacket Is Me
Jan 29, 2009

GaussianCopula posted:

Prioritize the IMF over the fat-cat pensioners and public employees.

It will be this. Or an 11th hour breakthrough in negotiation (which has happened more than once). And I won't look it up, but I am sure that Greek ministers have suggested that payments will not be made unless [X] happens.

After years of this, I've come to the conclusion that this is all kabuki. We've gone through ND, PASOK and now SYRIZA governments, each with their own variation of the dance, but at the end of the day Greece doesn't want to leave the Eurozone any more than the rest of Europe wants them to leave. At the same time, the other member states don't want to give the impression of a free ride to their respective constituencies, so there's endless meetings and public drama and a constant rotation of personalities. For all the talk about the meteoric rise of Euroscepticism, none of those parties have had a tangible effect on these negotiations.

Buying 10-year Greek bonds right now will nearly triple your money.

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Geriatric Pirate
Apr 25, 2008

by Nyc_Tattoo

This Jacket Is Me posted:

It will be this. Or an 11th hour breakthrough in negotiation (which has happened more than once). And I won't look it up, but I am sure that Greek ministers have suggested that payments will not be made unless [X] happens.

After years of this, I've come to the conclusion that this is all kabuki. We've gone through ND, PASOK and now SYRIZA governments, each with their own variation of the dance, but at the end of the day Greece doesn't want to leave the Eurozone any more than the rest of Europe wants them to leave. At the same time, the other member states don't want to give the impression of a free ride to their respective constituencies, so there's endless meetings and public drama and a constant rotation of personalities. For all the talk about the meteoric rise of Euroscepticism, none of those parties have had a tangible effect on these negotiations.

Buying 10-year Greek bonds right now will nearly triple your money.

Just buy the 3 year bonds with 23% yield instead of the 10 year with 10%. The logic in this pricing is that Greece will either default soon or not default, whereas based on your prediction we're going to see this same song and dance for the next 10 years.

And I knew someone who bought Greek bonds before the restructuring. Now he has Greek GDP warrants in his trading account.

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


This Jacket Is Me posted:

It will be this. Or an 11th hour breakthrough in negotiation (which has happened more than once). And I won't look it up, but I am sure that Greek ministers have suggested that payments will not be made unless [X] happens.

After years of this, I've come to the conclusion that this is all kabuki. We've gone through ND, PASOK and now SYRIZA governments, each with their own variation of the dance, but at the end of the day Greece doesn't want to leave the Eurozone any more than the rest of Europe wants them to leave. At the same time, the other member states don't want to give the impression of a free ride to their respective constituencies, so there's endless meetings and public drama and a constant rotation of personalities. For all the talk about the meteoric rise of Euroscepticism, none of those parties have had a tangible effect on these negotiations.

Buying 10-year Greek bonds right now will nearly triple your money.

After years of observing PASOK and New Democracy I don't think you can draw conclusions about what SYRIZA will do. They are serious about missing the IMF payment if no deal is reached. But they have been working for a deal, and they do believe that there will be proper, final deal by the end of the month. Any "11th hour breakthrough" won't be something to take anyone by surprise.

And, Christ, if anything that Greece gets is seen as a free ride, that's stupid. No matter what sort of deal Greece cuts, no-one will want to be in Greece's position anyway.

This Jacket Is Me
Jan 29, 2009
I agree fully with the last part. I don't know about the first part, though. The time for SYRIZA to be ballsy with negotiations was right after the elections. And they were ballsy, although more in an outlandish and bizarre way than a productive one. They (SYRIZA gov't) have already made payments that they said they would not make, for one reason or another. I guess we'll see.

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Yeah, but for those payments there were sources of liquidity that allowed them to both make the payments and pay salaries and pensions. But having used the IMF emergency cash I believe they've scraped the bottom of the barrel. If there is no deal and somehow the state income surpasses projections enough to make the payments both to the IMF and wages+pensions they'll do that, but projections say otherwise, and I feel it's unreasonable to expect the Greek state to run a true surplus like they've been doing for the past few months in perpetuity; cash will run out at some point, and it's looking like this is going to be it.

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


GaussianCopula posted:

Prioritize the IMF over the fat-cat pensioners and public employees.

:allears:

You're almost cute when you're horrific.

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.
Wait that's not sarcastic?

Pinch Me Im Meming
Jun 26, 2005
You know the bureaucrat that after you plead for bread for your family of four locks his gaze onto yours with his dead eyes and goes icanthelpyounextplease? That's GaussianCopula.

Honj Steak
May 31, 2013

Hi there.
The German fate: standing in front of a counter. The German ideal: standing behind a counter.

Honest Thief
Jan 11, 2009
How did the pension system got so much foothold in Greek rethoric, wasn't it even in line with other euro countries, when looking at meaningful stats?

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Honj Steak posted:

The German fate: standing in front of a counter. The German ideal: standing behind a counter.

The Swedish ideal: selling quality counters to the rest of Europe at below market prices.

amanasleep
May 21, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

The Swedish ideal: selling quality counters to the rest of Europe at below market prices.

But just try putting those counters together, rest of Europe!

3peat
May 6, 2010

Frangela, the power couple of EUlywood, have big ambitions:

quote:

The European Union is considering imposing a minimum tax rate on companies across the 28-nation bloc, Handelsblatt has learned. Germany and France are for the plan, but small countries with low rates like Ireland and Luxembourg are not happy. Let the battle commence. Germany and France are demanding an end to corporate tax havens set up by Ireland and Belgium, among others.

“Germany and France are demanding a minimum threshold value: We are reacting to that,” said one source close to the Commission.
The aggressive push by Germany and France could take European tax policy in an entirely new direction.

quote:

Germany and France have forged a pact to integrate the eurozone without reopening the EU’s treaties
The Franco-German accord, disclosed by Le Monde newspaper, calls for eurozone reforms in four areas “developed in the framework of the current treaties in the years ahead”.

The Franco-German pact, agreed as the Greek debt crisis comes to a head, was finalised last week on the fringes of the EU summit in Latvia and sent to Juncker at the weekend, Le Monde reported.
Juncker is preparing policy options for the June summit on how to integrate the eurozone fiscally and politically as it struggles to emerge from more than five years of crisis. The Franco-German proposals are likely to settle the direction of policy. They talk of economic, fiscal and social convergence, combining German insistence on monetary stability with French demands for greater investment.

“Additional steps are necessary to examine the political and institutional framework, common instruments and the legal basis” (of the eurozone) by the end of next year, said the document, according to Le Monde.

Fiscal union in the works? mmm

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
A minimum corporation tax would be amazing, but we wily Brits will undermine it by continuing to allow our Crown dependencies to pretend to be part of the EU except when they're not.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
A minimum corporation tax would be great tbh.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

LemonDrizzle posted:

A minimum corporation tax would be amazing, but we wily Brits will undermine it by continuing to allow our Crown dependencies to pretend to be part of the EU except when they're not.
France should just take them back. At least with France it's very clear if a territory is part of Metropolitan France. (It is)

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

LemonDrizzle posted:

A minimum corporation tax would be amazing, but we wily Brits will undermine it by continuing to allow our Crown dependencies to pretend to be part of the EU except when they're not.

Anything that allows the Manx work permit to be the most valuable piece of government paper in the world has my full and undivided support

3peat
May 6, 2010

Orange Devil posted:

A minimum corporation tax would be great tbh.

It's so good of an idea that I expect millions of corporate lobbyists to cry out in terror

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

3peat posted:

It's so good of an idea that I expect millions of Irish politicians to cry out in terror

The Celtic Tiger is roaring back!!!

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Honest Thief posted:

How did the pension system got so much foothold in Greek rethoric, wasn't it even in line with other euro countries, when looking at meaningful stats?

Greek pension funds saw large parts of their deposits go poof after the PSI haircut a few years back.

Geriatric Pirate
Apr 25, 2008

by Nyc_Tattoo

ReagaNOMNOMicks posted:

You know the bureaucrat that after you plead for bread for your family of four locks his gaze onto yours with his dead eyes and goes icanthelpyounextplease? That's GaussianCopula.

Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done.

Fados
Jan 7, 2013
I like Malcolm X, I can't be racist!

Put this racist dipshit on ignore immediately!

Geriatric Pirate posted:

Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done.

germans work more hours than PIGS: t/f?

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

Geriatric Pirate posted:

Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done.

:tinfoil:

Loving Africa Chaps
Dec 3, 2007


We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

Orange Devil posted:

A minimum corporation tax would be great tbh.

It'll be something pathetically low

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


Loving Africa Chaps posted:

It'll be something pathetically low

Yeah, it'll be 0.5% higher than Luxembourg but below everyone else - EUROPE MUST BE COMPETITIVE and beggar its neighbours.

Junior G-man
Sep 15, 2004

Wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma


Geriatric Pirate posted:

Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done.

Perhaps you could lead all the hardworking capitalists away into a productive utopia, to bore them to death with long winded speeches.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Loving Africa Chaps posted:

It'll be something pathetically low

Ofcourse but it'll still be better than nothing plus establishes precedent to raise that motherfucker once uhmm yeah you know I guess never but still it's an objectively good idea.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
It should be defined dynamically, like the poverty line has been defined at half the average income. So defining the minimum corporate tax rate at 50% of the European average tax rate would be a good idea. (Especially if the average is weighted by demography, so tiny countries like Luxembourg have basically no effect on it.)

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Cat Mattress posted:

It should be defined dynamically, like the poverty line has been defined at half the average income. So defining the minimum corporate tax rate at 50% of the European average tax rate would be a good idea. (Especially if the average is weighted by demography, so tiny countries like Luxembourg have basically no effect on it.)
The European average is something like 23%, so half would be just below Ireland's current level. Germany and France want everyone charging way more than that.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.
The VAT rate is probably a better comparison, as there is already a lower bound for it in the EU (15% iirc). But the "standard rate" would not be as important as the closing of loopholes and special rates for certain categories, e.g. the Netherlands only take 5% tax on licensing/royalty profits, which makes it very tempting to transfer all your IPs to a Dutch mailbox company and have them charge your main business high royalties to reduce your tax burden.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Junior G-man posted:

Perhaps you could lead all the hardworking capitalists away into a productive utopia, to bore them to death with long winded speeches.

24/7 galtse.cx

9-Volt Assault
Jan 27, 2007

Beter twee tetten in de hand dan tien op de vlucht.
Corporate tax levels should be double that of the tax levels for individuals. So lets start at say 66%. :getin:

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Charlie Mopps posted:

Corporate tax levels should be double that of the tax levels for individuals. So lets start at say 66%. :getin:

Let's be nice and say corporations are people and just use the income tax to tax them.

Then let's put the top marginal tax rate at 100%.

Riso
Oct 11, 2008

by merry exmarx

Cat Mattress posted:

It should be defined dynamically, like the poverty line has been defined at half the average income. So defining the minimum corporate tax rate at 50% of the European average tax rate would be a good idea. (Especially if the average is weighted by demography, so tiny countries like Luxembourg have basically no effect on it.)

No, the poverty line in the EU has been defined as 60% of the median income of a country.

3peat
May 6, 2010

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007


Very confused by this post since Romania does not appear in the graph.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Badger of Basra posted:

Very confused by this post since Romania does not appear in the graph.

It does specify Western Europe. As a wild guess, imagine a really small bar all the way to the right, followed only by Bulgaria.

Randler
Jan 3, 2013

ACER ET VEHEMENS BONAVIS

Badger of Basra posted:

Very confused by this post since Romania does not appear in the graph.

Financial assets might not include real estate. If you include real estate, a lot of "poor" countries move to the left and "rich" Germany moves to the right. :eng101:

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

it doesn't or norway would be further to the left

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3peat
May 6, 2010

Randler posted:

Financial assets might not include real estate. If you include real estate, a lot of "poor" countries move to the left and "rich" Germany moves to the right. :eng101:

Yeah. This is for median wealth, where the very rich and very poor are excluded, while real estate is included:



And a debt one:

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