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GaussianCopula posted:Prioritize the IMF over the fat-cat pensioners and public employees. It will be this. Or an 11th hour breakthrough in negotiation (which has happened more than once). And I won't look it up, but I am sure that Greek ministers have suggested that payments will not be made unless [X] happens. After years of this, I've come to the conclusion that this is all kabuki. We've gone through ND, PASOK and now SYRIZA governments, each with their own variation of the dance, but at the end of the day Greece doesn't want to leave the Eurozone any more than the rest of Europe wants them to leave. At the same time, the other member states don't want to give the impression of a free ride to their respective constituencies, so there's endless meetings and public drama and a constant rotation of personalities. For all the talk about the meteoric rise of Euroscepticism, none of those parties have had a tangible effect on these negotiations. Buying 10-year Greek bonds right now will nearly triple your money.
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# ? May 26, 2015 11:44 |
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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:41 |
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This Jacket Is Me posted:It will be this. Or an 11th hour breakthrough in negotiation (which has happened more than once). And I won't look it up, but I am sure that Greek ministers have suggested that payments will not be made unless [X] happens. Just buy the 3 year bonds with 23% yield instead of the 10 year with 10%. The logic in this pricing is that Greece will either default soon or not default, whereas based on your prediction we're going to see this same song and dance for the next 10 years. And I knew someone who bought Greek bonds before the restructuring. Now he has Greek GDP warrants in his trading account.
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# ? May 26, 2015 11:57 |
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This Jacket Is Me posted:It will be this. Or an 11th hour breakthrough in negotiation (which has happened more than once). And I won't look it up, but I am sure that Greek ministers have suggested that payments will not be made unless [X] happens. After years of observing PASOK and New Democracy I don't think you can draw conclusions about what SYRIZA will do. They are serious about missing the IMF payment if no deal is reached. But they have been working for a deal, and they do believe that there will be proper, final deal by the end of the month. Any "11th hour breakthrough" won't be something to take anyone by surprise. And, Christ, if anything that Greece gets is seen as a free ride, that's stupid. No matter what sort of deal Greece cuts, no-one will want to be in Greece's position anyway.
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# ? May 26, 2015 12:15 |
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I agree fully with the last part. I don't know about the first part, though. The time for SYRIZA to be ballsy with negotiations was right after the elections. And they were ballsy, although more in an outlandish and bizarre way than a productive one. They (SYRIZA gov't) have already made payments that they said they would not make, for one reason or another. I guess we'll see.
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# ? May 26, 2015 12:25 |
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Yeah, but for those payments there were sources of liquidity that allowed them to both make the payments and pay salaries and pensions. But having used the IMF emergency cash I believe they've scraped the bottom of the barrel. If there is no deal and somehow the state income surpasses projections enough to make the payments both to the IMF and wages+pensions they'll do that, but projections say otherwise, and I feel it's unreasonable to expect the Greek state to run a true surplus like they've been doing for the past few months in perpetuity; cash will run out at some point, and it's looking like this is going to be it.
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# ? May 26, 2015 12:40 |
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GaussianCopula posted:Prioritize the IMF over the fat-cat pensioners and public employees. You're almost cute when you're horrific.
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# ? May 26, 2015 12:41 |
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Wait that's not sarcastic?
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# ? May 26, 2015 13:49 |
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You know the bureaucrat that after you plead for bread for your family of four locks his gaze onto yours with his dead eyes and goes icanthelpyounextplease? That's GaussianCopula.
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# ? May 26, 2015 14:55 |
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The German fate: standing in front of a counter. The German ideal: standing behind a counter.
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# ? May 26, 2015 15:15 |
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How did the pension system got so much foothold in Greek rethoric, wasn't it even in line with other euro countries, when looking at meaningful stats?
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# ? May 26, 2015 16:23 |
Honj Steak posted:The German fate: standing in front of a counter. The German ideal: standing behind a counter. The Swedish ideal: selling quality counters to the rest of Europe at below market prices.
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# ? May 26, 2015 16:45 |
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Discendo Vox posted:The Swedish ideal: selling quality counters to the rest of Europe at below market prices. But just try putting those counters together, rest of Europe!
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# ? May 26, 2015 16:59 |
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Frangela, the power couple of EUlywood, have big ambitions:quote:The European Union is considering imposing a minimum tax rate on companies across the 28-nation bloc, Handelsblatt has learned. Germany and France are for the plan, but small countries with low rates like Ireland and Luxembourg are not happy. Let the battle commence. Germany and France are demanding an end to corporate tax havens set up by Ireland and Belgium, among others. quote:Germany and France have forged a pact to integrate the eurozone without reopening the EU’s treaties Fiscal union in the works? mmm
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# ? May 26, 2015 17:58 |
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A minimum corporation tax would be amazing, but we wily Brits will undermine it by continuing to allow our Crown dependencies to pretend to be part of the EU except when they're not.
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# ? May 26, 2015 18:02 |
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A minimum corporation tax would be great tbh.
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# ? May 26, 2015 18:09 |
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LemonDrizzle posted:A minimum corporation tax would be amazing, but we wily Brits will undermine it by continuing to allow our Crown dependencies to pretend to be part of the EU except when they're not.
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# ? May 26, 2015 18:16 |
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LemonDrizzle posted:A minimum corporation tax would be amazing, but we wily Brits will undermine it by continuing to allow our Crown dependencies to pretend to be part of the EU except when they're not. Anything that allows the Manx work permit to be the most valuable piece of government paper in the world has my full and undivided support
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# ? May 26, 2015 18:35 |
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Orange Devil posted:A minimum corporation tax would be great tbh. It's so good of an idea that I expect millions of corporate lobbyists to cry out in terror
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# ? May 26, 2015 18:38 |
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3peat posted:It's so good of an idea that I expect millions of Irish politicians to cry out in terror The Celtic Tiger is roaring back!!!
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# ? May 26, 2015 18:39 |
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Honest Thief posted:How did the pension system got so much foothold in Greek rethoric, wasn't it even in line with other euro countries, when looking at meaningful stats? Greek pension funds saw large parts of their deposits go poof after the PSI haircut a few years back.
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# ? May 26, 2015 18:43 |
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ReagaNOMNOMicks posted:You know the bureaucrat that after you plead for bread for your family of four locks his gaze onto yours with his dead eyes and goes icanthelpyounextplease? That's GaussianCopula. Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done.
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# ? May 26, 2015 19:19 |
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Geriatric Pirate posted:Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done. germans work more hours than PIGS: t/f?
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# ? May 26, 2015 19:59 |
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Geriatric Pirate posted:Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done.
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# ? May 26, 2015 20:32 |
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Orange Devil posted:A minimum corporation tax would be great tbh. It'll be something pathetically low
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# ? May 26, 2015 20:58 |
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Loving Africa Chaps posted:It'll be something pathetically low Yeah, it'll be 0.5% higher than Luxembourg but below everyone else - EUROPE MUST BE COMPETITIVE
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# ? May 26, 2015 22:01 |
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Geriatric Pirate posted:Addition: most of the left wing posters here are bureaucrats who start crying after hearing that you don't have food and end up just crying all day about how unfair the world is instead of getting anything done. Perhaps you could lead all the hardworking capitalists away into a productive utopia, to bore them to death with long winded speeches.
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# ? May 27, 2015 08:55 |
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Loving Africa Chaps posted:It'll be something pathetically low Ofcourse but it'll still be better than nothing plus establishes precedent to raise that motherfucker once uhmm yeah you know I guess never but still it's an objectively good idea.
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# ? May 27, 2015 10:18 |
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It should be defined dynamically, like the poverty line has been defined at half the average income. So defining the minimum corporate tax rate at 50% of the European average tax rate would be a good idea. (Especially if the average is weighted by demography, so tiny countries like Luxembourg have basically no effect on it.)
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# ? May 27, 2015 11:29 |
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Cat Mattress posted:It should be defined dynamically, like the poverty line has been defined at half the average income. So defining the minimum corporate tax rate at 50% of the European average tax rate would be a good idea. (Especially if the average is weighted by demography, so tiny countries like Luxembourg have basically no effect on it.)
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# ? May 27, 2015 11:40 |
The VAT rate is probably a better comparison, as there is already a lower bound for it in the EU (15% iirc). But the "standard rate" would not be as important as the closing of loopholes and special rates for certain categories, e.g. the Netherlands only take 5% tax on licensing/royalty profits, which makes it very tempting to transfer all your IPs to a Dutch mailbox company and have them charge your main business high royalties to reduce your tax burden.
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# ? May 27, 2015 11:50 |
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Junior G-man posted:Perhaps you could lead all the hardworking capitalists away into a productive utopia, to bore them to death with long winded speeches. 24/7 galtse.cx
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# ? May 27, 2015 12:25 |
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Corporate tax levels should be double that of the tax levels for individuals. So lets start at say 66%.
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# ? May 27, 2015 12:48 |
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Charlie Mopps posted:Corporate tax levels should be double that of the tax levels for individuals. So lets start at say 66%. Let's be nice and say corporations are people and just use the income tax to tax them. Then let's put the top marginal tax rate at 100%.
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# ? May 27, 2015 12:56 |
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Cat Mattress posted:It should be defined dynamically, like the poverty line has been defined at half the average income. So defining the minimum corporate tax rate at 50% of the European average tax rate would be a good idea. (Especially if the average is weighted by demography, so tiny countries like Luxembourg have basically no effect on it.) No, the poverty line in the EU has been defined as 60% of the median income of a country.
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# ? May 27, 2015 13:02 |
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# ? May 27, 2015 21:27 |
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Very confused by this post since Romania does not appear in the graph.
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# ? May 27, 2015 21:45 |
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Badger of Basra posted:Very confused by this post since Romania does not appear in the graph. It does specify Western Europe. As a wild guess, imagine a really small bar all the way to the right, followed only by Bulgaria.
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# ? May 27, 2015 21:54 |
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Badger of Basra posted:Very confused by this post since Romania does not appear in the graph. Financial assets might not include real estate. If you include real estate, a lot of "poor" countries move to the left and "rich" Germany moves to the right.
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# ? May 27, 2015 22:38 |
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it doesn't or norway would be further to the left
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# ? May 27, 2015 22:39 |
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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:41 |
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Randler posted:Financial assets might not include real estate. If you include real estate, a lot of "poor" countries move to the left and "rich" Germany moves to the right. Yeah. This is for median wealth, where the very rich and very poor are excluded, while real estate is included: And a debt one:
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# ? May 27, 2015 23:43 |