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Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
I've had Amba stock for two days and my literal 2 shares are the most positive stocks in absolute terms in my portfolio.

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Garfu
Mar 6, 2008

Much like buttholes, families are meant to be tight.
Well thanks to whoever mentioned JASO the other day. Got in at 8.2 for 2.4k shares.

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

AWWNAW posted:

Sanderson farms is ripping my dick off.

A few point drop that has no relation to the underlying business is random noise. It's EV/EBITDA is now 3...

Stoned Sheep
Jun 21, 2010

Torpor posted:

I've had Amba stock for two days and my literal 2 shares are the most positive stocks in absolute terms in my portfolio.

Welcome to the party, AMBA to 200 :toot:

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

Stoned Sheep posted:

Welcome to the party, AMBA to 200 :toot:

Holy balls this thing is stupid. Up 7%.

fruition
Feb 1, 2014
Jumped in on some MNKD

treerat
Oct 4, 2005
up here so high i start to shake up here so high the sky i scrape

Business posted:

-JASO has been trading in the ~8 area for a bit. Lots of people saying it's undervalued.
-CEO proposes taking the company private for 9.69 a share (20% over closing yesterday)
-stock shoots up to 9.5 this morning, floats back down to 9.1
-if the deal doesn't go through, its because shareholders want more than 9.69, meaning people are valuing it higher (right?), meaning good long prospects
-if the deal does go through, then this a really good value at 9.12

How is it not a win/win situation to just buy now and see if the deal goes through? If it gets bought, it's a good short play. If it doesn't, I could just hold on for a longer position because 9.69 is apparently a low valuation.

Am I making any bad assumptions here?

edit: i do realize it will dip in the short term at least if the deal doesn't happen

It seems win/win to me too, but the bigger win is if the buyout falls through imo.

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

fruition posted:

Jumped in on some MNKD

I am sorry for your lots.

I think Garfu is the only one in this thread making money.

Garfu
Mar 6, 2008

Much like buttholes, families are meant to be tight.
Which is funny because most of my purchases come from tips in this thread. I guess I've just been lucky with the buy-in prices and timing. COCP was my tip though and that's one of my best performers. Also bought back in to HOS again (third time) which has made me 5 grand profit after previous sales.

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
Cramer recommended AMBA, time to sell guys!

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

Arkane posted:

Got the short in on EBIX, 1k shares at 35.94, of course it shot right up.

Sold 10 32 puts for 60 cents against this position just now, expiry next Friday.

DEMAG
Aug 14, 2003

You're it.
NFLX, loving bananas. :signings:

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

DEMAG posted:

NFLX, loving bananas. :signings:

If they sign the top gear guys they will have scored big time.

Nephzinho
Jan 25, 2008





Torpor posted:

If they sign the top gear guys they will have scored big time.

Every time they appear in the news I kick myself for not picking up as many shares as I could afford towards the end of 2014 on that major dip. Hindsight :sigh:

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel
Everyone says that, but nobody mentions the crappy stocks which have since tanked that they were looking to buy in the past.

Buy per your risk tolerance. Don't just look at how much you could have made, but also how much you could have lost if it went sour. How likely is it that such investments could go sour?

This always pops up when people talk about "beating" the S&P 500 and other indexes. I can show you some small cap indexes which have blown the S&P 500 out of the water. However they are extensively more risky. When poo poo goes south (and it will go south), you will find that same small cap index gets hammered. Saying you beat the S&P 500 is only relevant if you were trying to emulate it (then why don't you just buy an index fund), or emulate the exact risk level (good luck with that).

Invest per your risk tolerance. Measure your success not just by your returns, but by your returns given the amount of risk you have taken.

Nephzinho
Jan 25, 2008





Cheesemaster200 posted:

Everyone says that, but nobody mentions the crappy stocks which have since tanked that they were looking to buy in the past.

Buy per your risk tolerance. Don't just look at how much you could have made, but also how much you could have lost if it went sour. How likely is it that such investments could go sour?

This always pops up when people talk about "beating" the S&P 500 and other indexes. I can show you some small cap indexes which have blown the S&P 500 out of the water. However they are extensively more risky. When poo poo goes south (and it will go south), you will find that same small cap index gets hammered. Saying you beat the S&P 500 is only relevant if you were trying to emulate it (then why don't you just buy an index fund), or emulate the exact risk level (good luck with that).

Invest per your risk tolerance. Measure your success not just by your returns, but by your returns given the amount of risk you have taken.

Oh my risk tolerance is fairly low, I only actively manage like 10% of my portfolio.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Nephzinho posted:

Oh my risk tolerance is fairly low, I only actively manage like 10% of my portfolio.

How does fixed income sound? I can recommend perfectly innocuous CD ladders!

Nephzinho
Jan 25, 2008





M_Gargantua posted:

How does fixed income sound? I can recommend perfectly innocuous CD ladders!

My personal I'm-not-an-idiot risk is low, the other 90% is pretty much 100% stocks in a variety of funds.

fruition
Feb 1, 2014

Torpor posted:

I am sorry for your lots.

Don't be, that's my #yoloswag lotto ticket

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
I've gotten preferred stocks, if a large part of my portfolio can do like 7% fairly reliably, that would be a 100% improvement over what my portfolio has done for the past year.\

I lost money on AMBA somehow :smithicide:

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Torpor posted:

I am sorry for your lots.

I think Garfu is the only one in this thread making money.

I'm up almost six figures YTD, so I dunno, maybe not

SKELETONS
May 8, 2014
HLF going to $200 http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/herbalife-very-long-post.html?spref=tw :bandwagon"

actually a pretty interesting read, but I'm not convinced. not that i'm captain ethics and morality but I'd put money in weapons manufacturing long before hlf. but that article did open me to the possibility that I may be wrong.

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

Yeah I mean HLF basically seems like a company selling a slimfast diet shake knockoff with some really skeevy MLM on top. All the bull positions seem to be trying to furiously convince you that actual shakes are being sold or not, but that doesn't seem to be the question. The question is whether or not you think the skeevy MLM tactics are going to drown them or not.

The Ackerman play seems mostly about trying to get the FTC to nail them to the cross over the MLM stuff. The bull position seems to be mostly "dirty money still spends."

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

SKELETONS posted:

HLF going to $200 http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/herbalife-very-long-post.html?spref=tw :bandwagon"

actually a pretty interesting read, but I'm not convinced. not that i'm captain ethics and morality but I'd put money in weapons manufacturing long before hlf. but that article did open me to the possibility that I may be wrong.

Yeah, he lays out an interesting case. Hempton has been a HLF bull for over a year now, and one would've done well to follow him on it, but it still feels like there is easier money to be made elsewhere.

Well maybe not lately.

fruition
Feb 1, 2014
see ya Dick :frogdowns:

Mills
Jun 13, 2003

TWTR paid off boys. :woop:

Zerstorung
Jun 27, 2008
Aaaaand it's gone. Hope you took your profits for that hour it was up 10%

fruition
Feb 1, 2014

Zerstorung posted:

Aaaaand it's gone. Hope you took your profits for that hour it was up 10%

Negative, just a step in the right direction bruv

R.A. Dickey
Feb 20, 2005

Knuckleballer.

R.A. Dickey posted:

Any thoughts on Twitter around these levels? I cant figure out how they aren't insanely profitable yet here we are. If news came along that Costolo was out I could see it going up 10% on the news alone, very tempted

Not bad. Luckily I listened to my own advice

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
Any thoughts on Micron (MU)?

It looks like it is doing pretty good the last couple years but everyone is just selling it.

It has hit a 3rd bottom and therefore buy :colbert:

Edit I'm also looking at cenx and gcap. I was looking at them last night and missed out on the nice jump in cenx this morning. cenx may do better than it has because they fixed their labor troubles. I don't know enough about gain capital though it screened okay.

Torpor fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Jun 12, 2015

lostleaf
Jul 12, 2009

Torpor posted:

Any thoughts on Micron (MU)?

It looks like it is doing pretty good the last couple years but everyone is just selling it.

It has hit a 3rd bottom and therefore buy :colbert:

Edit I'm also looking at cenx and gcap. I was looking at them last night and missed out on the nice jump in cenx this morning. cenx may do better than it has because they fixed their labor troubles. I don't know enough about gain capital though it screened okay.

The issue with MU is that ram and storage are essentially commodities with tons of competition. Their latest 10q also states that they expect some decrease in revenue.

That said, MU is still crazily cheap even accounting for that. They have minimal debt. Solid business fundamentals. I've bought some MU @ 27. By any conservative valuations its worth at least 35. If it drops to 24, I'm doubling down.

Storgar
Oct 31, 2011

Torpor posted:

Any thoughts on Micron (MU)?

It looks like it is doing pretty good the last couple years but everyone is just selling it.

It has hit a 3rd bottom and therefore buy :colbert:

Edit I'm also looking at cenx and gcap. I was looking at them last night and missed out on the nice jump in cenx this morning. cenx may do better than it has because they fixed their labor troubles. I don't know enough about gain capital though it screened okay.

Doesn't really look too good... Both DRAM and NAND flash seem to have some demand issues this year and a lot of companies in the same industry are showing weak revenue. For a while, MU's price target was the low 40's and it was hovering around $32-35 and now it's being beat down by the recent fluctuations in the market.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3191746-sk-hynix-q1-results-are-ominous-for-micron

I would wait until it drops some more like lostleaf suggests and buy some for long term. But even then, it seems like a gamble (there's nothing in the pipeline to suggest the stock will meet it's price target aside from everyone deciding at the same time that MU is strong again).

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
Cigna what are you doing?

fougera
Apr 5, 2009

Arkane posted:

A few point drop that has no relation to the underlying business is random noise. It's EV/EBITDA is now 3...


So why not PPC?

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

fougera posted:

So why not PPC?

PPC looks relatively cheap too, but bear in mind that we're in super ideal conditions for a chicken company and this may not persist. If we were to normalize their earnings for cyclicality, it won't look nearly as cheap.

PPC compared to SAFM is more expensive relative to both earnings & book value, resulting in a 4.7 EV/EBITDA versus SAFM's 2.95. Better margins for Sanderson, too. Just a safer, better investment across the board as far as I can tell.

Additionally, SAFM's new Palestine location just went online a few months ago (the cost of which would've increased SAFM's earnings even more last year) so the company is expecting 11% growth this year in sales relative to last year. And they have an additional location that'll be up in about 15 months in North Carolina. SAFM is expecting organic growth of ~10% annually for the next 3+ years. I can't confess to know much about PPC's growth strategy but a quick look through their investor presentation doesn't have a slide for forthcoming locations, and year over year sales growth is minuscule.

Finally, the susceptibility of PPC to avian flu is slightly elevated relative to SAFM because they have more northern locations than SAFM does (they go as far north as West Virginia, whereas SAFM is almost all located in the deep south, with only 1 location in North Carolina at the moment).

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
I bought into HZNP at 32.20 and sold the 33 options. Until yesterday it didn't look like it would get there this month, but then it just blew past it and is up to 34.10 right now. I'm trying to tell myself not to be greedy but I love gold money

Nephzinho
Jan 25, 2008





Oracle :unsmigghh:

The Shep
Jan 10, 2007


If found, please return this poster to GIP. His mothers are very worried and miss him very much.
Oh man did I miss the boat on AMBA? Anyone gonna buy in at this point?

Garfu
Mar 6, 2008

Much like buttholes, families are meant to be tight.

Cmdr. Shepard posted:

Oh man did I miss the boat on AMBA? Anyone gonna buy in at this point?

I just sold for a %15 profit. Lately I've just been taking my gains and running without looking back. No idea if it's a good time to buy though...

Garfu fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Jun 19, 2015

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Agronox
Feb 4, 2005
Citron just published an AMBA piece.

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