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Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
I actually kind of like Doug Martin at his current ADP value. If you're going bottom-up strategy (WR/TE etc) you can sometimes grab the entire Tampa Bay backfield on your roster, which is A Thing (maybe a good thing? fantasy.txt)

People forget that while Martin has been hurt for a good majority of the season (only playing 18 games the past two), he rushed for 1400+ yards his rookie season, had 49 receptions for 400+ yards, 12 total touchdowns and only 1 fumble lost.

On top of that, he is in a contract year this year, so much like how Mark Ingram was a top runner last year, I think Martin could be a good gamble in the mid-late rounds. He is currently RB35 and overall pick #106 for ADP according to Fantasy Pros.

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MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Gyshall posted:

I actually kind of like Doug Martin at his current ADP value. If you're going bottom-up strategy (WR/TE etc) you can sometimes grab the entire Tampa Bay backfield on your roster, which is A Thing (maybe a good thing? fantasy.txt)

People forget that while Martin has been hurt for a good majority of the season (only playing 18 games the past two), he rushed for 1400+ yards his rookie season, had 49 receptions for 400+ yards, 12 total touchdowns and only 1 fumble lost.

On top of that, he is in a contract year this year, so much like how Mark Ingram was a top runner last year, I think Martin could be a good gamble in the mid-late rounds. He is currently RB35 and overall pick #106 for ADP according to Fantasy Pros.

I feel like I read this post last year, minus the part about it being a contract year. drat you Doug Martin!

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

If you're doing MFL10s, be careful how you set your Pre-Draft list or you'll end up like Purple Thunder over here, lol:

http://football30.myfantasyleague.com/2015/options?L=11787&O=07

He's got 4 QBs and 0 RBs after 9 rounds.

Edit:

Who is Former Kicker Ray Finkle? I think I remember you being in the Goon Slow Draft. I'm Quarter Roys - good luck dude.

Quarterroys fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Jun 7, 2015

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Cervixalot posted:

If you're doing MFL10s, be careful how you set your Pre-Draft list or you'll end up like Purple Thunder over here, lol:

http://football30.myfantasyleague.com/2015/options?L=11787&O=07

He's got 4 QBs and 0 RBs after 9 rounds.

Edit:

Who is Former Kicker Ray Finkle? I think I remember you being in the Goon Slow Draft. I'm Quarter Roys - good luck dude.

That's me! I'm Former Kicker Ray Finkle.

also


MrSargent posted:

I feel like I read this post last year, minus the part about it being a contract year. drat you Doug Martin!

Yeah Martin is my New Kenny Britt, but actually my new Mark Ingram, where I draft him all the time no matter what. Ingram I've drafted since his rookie season, and seeing him blow up last year finally gave me hope. Martin's rookie season was really, really good, though - the point is to not make him your RB1 but your RB3/4 with upside.

Hightlight reel but whatevs, look at some of the runs he breaks off:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffw9EBOSlew

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Kenny Britt aka two games made him a superstar among fantasy players

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Metapod posted:

Kenny Britt aka two games made him a superstar among fantasy players

It only took Doug Martin one game.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

It only took Doug Martin one game.

i seriously hate martin for that game of all weeks for him to do that it had to be against me

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

How do you rank the top RB's?

What I've generally seen is top tier (rankings based on current ECR):

Jamaal Charles
Le'Veon Bell
Adrian Peterson
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
Marshawn Lynch
Arian Foster

2nd tier:

LeSean McCoy
CJ Anderson
DeMarco Murray
Jeremy Hill

However, I've seen more variance than I think there was in previous years. All 4 PFF graders put Forte as 2nd tier, ranking him 7/8/9/11. I'm also surprised Murray is getting marked down that far, you'd think the Eagles offense would be good to him.

1. How do you rank them?
2. In a PPR league where do you begin drafting WR's in the first round over them? I'm looking at the Sablich Brothers ranking, they have 6 WR's and Gronk in their top 12. Same with the Tozzi Brothers except they have Jimmy Graham. Those 6 are Brown, OBJ, D. Thomas, Dez, Julio and Jordy/Calvin.

Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Jun 9, 2015

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Its Miller Time posted:

How do you rank the top RB's?

What I've generally seen is top tier (rankings based on current ECR):

Jamaal Charles
Le'Veon Bell
Adrian Peterson
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
Marshawn Lynch
Arian Foster

2nd tier:

LeSean McCoy
CJ Anderson
DeMarco Murray
Jeremy Hill

However, I've seen more variance than I think there was in previous years. All 4 PFF graders put Forte as 2nd tier, ranking him 7/8/9/11. I'm also surprised Murray is getting marked down that far, you'd think the Eagles offense would be good to him.

1. How do you rank them?
2. In a PPR league where do you begin drafting WR's in the first round over them? I'm looking at the Sablich Brothers ranking, they have 6 WR's and Gronk in their top 12. Same with the Tozzi Brothers except they have Jimmy Graham. Those 6 are Brown, OBJ, D. Thomas, Dez, Julio and Jordy/Calvin.

Here's my top 2 tiers:

Guys I'd pick in the first:
Le'Veon Bell
Adrian Peterson
Jamaal Charles
Eddie Lacy
Marshawn Lynch

Guys I'd pick in the second:
Arian Foster
Matt Forte
CJ Anderson
DeMarco Murray
Jeremy Hill
Justin Forsett
Frank Gore
LeSean McCoy

I'm probably higher than most on Forsett and Gore, but I believe they will both be RB1s in PPR leagues.

Gronk should go in the top 10, and possibly even top 5 due to how much of a ridiculous positional advantage he gives you at TE.

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

Just looking over that list, it seems like there's more "good" RB's than normal. Beyond the names above you also have some very decent prospects in Forsett, Ellington, Lamar Miller, Gore, Ingram, Spiller, Morris, Hyde and the rookies. On the other hand, Julian Edelman and Jordan Matthews are 17 and 18 in ECR. Anyone else notice this trend this year? I'm not sure how comfortable I'd feel relying on names like Keenan Allen, B. Marshall, D. Jackson, Tate, Watkins, Maclin, V. Jax... Even going past 20 in the RB's you have good names - Yeldon, Coleman, Blount, R. Jennings, Abdullah, Sims...

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Le'Veon Bell?


(In addition to not playing football for 3 games this year for smoking hella weed, Bell is less than seven months out from this hyperextension)

Forsett is going to be a monster in PPR this year. Would give serious consideration to Gronk #1 overall in PPR.

Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Its Miller Time posted:

Just looking over that list, it seems like there's more "good" RB's than normal. Beyond the names above you also have some very decent prospects in Forsett, Ellington, Lamar Miller, Gore, Ingram, Spiller, Morris, Hyde and the rookies. On the other hand, Julian Edelman and Jordan Matthews are 17 and 18 in ECR. Anyone else notice this trend this year? I'm not sure how comfortable I'd feel relying on names like Keenan Allen, B. Marshall, D. Jackson, Tate, Watkins, Maclin, V. Jax... Even going past 20 in the RB's you have good names - Yeldon, Coleman, Blount, R. Jennings, Abdullah, Sims...

Jonathan Stewart too. He's finally the undisputed #1 RB in a collegiate style offense.

VDay
Jul 2, 2003

I'm Pacman Jones!
I wonder if there are hard numbers to support this, but it definitely feels like there are more viable fantasy players than ever at pretty much every position except TE. I know NFL offenses have been throwing more in the last few years and are slowly becoming more like the college game, but it still feels crazy to see some of the production available in the top 50 picks. You can go with pretty much any draft strategy that you want because there are like 15-20 solid RBs and 25-30 great WRs available, with like 15 serviceable QBs that will be there in the later rounds.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

VDay posted:

I wonder if there are hard numbers to support this, but it definitely feels like there are more viable fantasy players than ever at pretty much every position except TE. I know NFL offenses have been throwing more in the last few years and are slowly becoming more like the college game, but it still feels crazy to see some of the production available in the top 50 picks. You can go with pretty much any draft strategy that you want because there are like 15-20 solid RBs and 25-30 great WRs available, with like 15 serviceable QBs that will be there in the later rounds.

:agreed: but it is still june, training camps and what not will spin the hype machine into full force

Enforka
Dec 24, 2004
Le'veon Bell is a second tier RB for me, mostly because of the suspension. I want my best player on the field every week. The most games a player can play during the regular season (in my league at least) is 13. Drafting Bell guarantees I would be playing nearly a quarter of the regular season without my best player.

What if he gets off to a slow start on top of that? Or what if he gets banged up for a game or two? Give me someone like Foster or Lynch instead. I'd rather have a guy giving me 90% of the production for potentially all the games than someone who gives a little bit more but isn't available.

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN

Enforka posted:


What if he gets off to a slow start on top of that? Or what if he gets banged up for a game or two? Give me someone like Foster or Lynch instead. I'd rather have a guy giving me 90% of the production for potentially all the games than someone who gives a little bit more but isn't available.

:crossarms:

Foster missed as many games last year as Bell will be missing this year

Enforka
Dec 24, 2004

Benne posted:

:crossarms:

Foster missed as many games last year as Bell will be missing this year
Not quite. Three games is the total number of games Foster missed after injury over the entire course of the year. Bell is missing that many games before the season even starts, before you factor in things like injuries. Bell could get injured or have a bad game or two just as easily as anyone else, and then that number goes up.

Remember when Demarco Murray and Gronkowski were "injury-prone" and therefore not worth early picks? They played the whole year. Foster could do the same. Bell cannot. Yet the possibility of Foster getting banged up is somehow considered worse than the guarantee of Bell missing those games- and conceivably more unless he manages to stay 100% healthy over the entire year.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

There is no way in hell I take Foster over Bell.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
Yeah I'd take Bell over Foster at least. I just don't understand the 1.01 L. Bell picks when he has so much going against him.

e: Bell might have his suspension reduced but even still.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

I mean if he wasn't suspended I don't see how he isn't the first overall pick. Dude was basically averaging 200 yards from scrimmage every game. He's a beast. His suspension definitely hurts, but he's still easily a first round pick. I'm keeping him in the third round in my league and I couldn't be happier.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

RCarr posted:

I mean if he wasn't suspended I don't see how he isn't the first overall pick. Dude was basically averaging 200 yards from scrimmage every game. He's a beast. His suspension definitely hurts, but he's still easily a first round pick. I'm keeping him in the third round in my league and I couldn't be happier.

He is less than 7 months removed from a pretty serious knee injury that the Steelers were very mum/secretive about in the playoffs. Also he himself says he's not back at 100% yet:

Rotoworld posted:

Le'Veon Bell says his right knee is "close" to 100 percent.

It's the second straight month Bell has said he's "close" to full health. It's an interesting admission, as Bell's knee was supposedly only hyperextended after he went down in Week 17. Bell claimed in January that he was at "85-90 percent," but now admits it was closer to 50. Off the field, Bell apologized for his summer 2014 arrest. "I learned my lesson and it made me a better man and person," Bell said. "It's going to make me a better player." Bell is still working to get his three-game suspension reduced. May 26 - 5:59 PM

I think there are some serious warning flags for him right now for being a first round pick. He has great talent and he looked great last year, but his suspension isn't the only thing you should be concerned about right now when evaluating him as a fantasy pick.

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo
Are suspended players allowed to attend training camp?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

VDay posted:

I wonder if there are hard numbers to support this, but it definitely feels like there are more viable fantasy players than ever at pretty much every position except TE. I know NFL offenses have been throwing more in the last few years and are slowly becoming more like the college game, but it still feels crazy to see some of the production available in the top 50 picks. You can go with pretty much any draft strategy that you want because there are like 15-20 solid RBs and 25-30 great WRs available, with like 15 serviceable QBs that will be there in the later rounds.

I'm not sure I follow. If WRs in general this year score more points than WRs in previous years, that essentially just makes every fantasy team score more points, it doesn't make any particular draft strategy more or less effective. What matters isn't where the replacement-level player is, what matters is where your starters are compared to the replacement-level players.

What made late-QB drafting viable was the compression of the field relative to positional scaricity, where decreases in expected value across QB ranks into the late rounds were a) marginal and b) relatively linear (this is also part of the reason why we draft defenses and kickers after TEs despite the fact that they often score more that TEs). RB and WR still feel pretty steep to me, where you see an exponential decrease at the top followed by a minor differences in the mid and late rounds.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Azhais posted:

Are suspended players allowed to attend training camp?

I do not believe so, last year Josh Gordon could because the suspension hadn't been handed down yet.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Azhais posted:

Are suspended players allowed to attend training camp?

Yeah, they are. Their suspensions affect the regular season. In a case like Gordon, Blackmon or AD, they weren't just suspended, but had to wait a period to apply for reinstatement. A couple of games doesn't affect training camps.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Thanks for the feedback earlier gentlemen.

cheese
Jan 7, 2004

Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

RCarr posted:

I mean if he wasn't suspended I don't see how he isn't the first overall pick. Dude was basically averaging 200 yards from scrimmage every game. He's a beast. His suspension definitely hurts, but he's still easily a first round pick. I'm keeping him in the third round in my league and I couldn't be happier.
Because your first pick can't be a gamble. Not only does he have the suspension, but his health issues are already a concern and hes a running back to boot. That's why you should be taking Dez Bryant over OBJ. 3 straight seasons of 200+ standard points, 12+ TDs, 1200+ yards and he had his best season last year even though his targets went down (and they will go back up with Murray gone). Compare that to a more impressive second year receiver who has already missed games due to leg injuries (and is currently sitting out til training camp because he has injured his OTHER hamstring)? I want my first and second picks to be rocks and a suspended running back with injury concerns is not a rock.

Enforka
Dec 24, 2004

RCarr posted:

There is no way in hell I take Foster over Bell.
It's not so outlandish in standard. They are in the same ballpark in terms of production in that format (PPR is another story). Consider their per game stats in standard last year:

Bell had 85.1 Y/G Rushing, 53.4 Y/G Recieving and 11 TDs (.68 TD/G). Bell averaged 17 PPG.
Foster had 95.8 Y/G Rushing, 25.2 Y/G Recieving, 13 TDs (1 TD/G) and two fumbles (-.1 ppg). Foster averaged 17.1 PPG.

The knock against Foster isn't his talent, it's his health. And that alone is pretty much enough to knock Foster from the early first to the late first, early second. But if Foster has a three game handicap, who is to say he couldn't wind up playing more games and providing more production this year?

Thelonius Van Funk
Apr 7, 2007
Oh boy
Am I being a dumbass for keeping two D/ST in my dynasty league? We have pretty large rosters (30 spots including IR) so the waiver is pretty bare and we've already had our rookie draft. Should I drop the texans or the cardinals and pick up Bobby Rainey/Jordan Todman/Allan Hurns/Boobie Dixon/Lance Dunbar/Marcedes Lewis?

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

Am I being a dumbass for keeping two D/ST in my dynasty league? We have pretty large rosters (30 spots including IR) so the waiver is pretty bare and we've already had our rookie draft. Should I drop the texans or the cardinals and pick up Bobby Rainey/Jordan Todman/Allan Hurns/Boobie Dixon/Lance Dunbar/Marcedes Lewis?
Since those are good I would just hold onto them or trade one (unless it's a 6 team league or something someone should be willing to trade somebody better than those guys you listed, which is not to say they will).

edit: and it's not a 6 team league or the 181st best player / top of the wire would be better than ~Bobby Rainey.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 11:42 on Jun 11, 2015

Thelonius Van Funk
Apr 7, 2007
Oh boy
It's a 12 person league! I'll angle for a trade when someone's regular D/ST is nearing a bye week then

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

Am I being a dumbass for keeping two D/ST in my dynasty league? We have pretty large rosters (30 spots including IR) so the waiver is pretty bare and we've already had our rookie draft. Should I drop the texans or the cardinals and pick up Bobby Rainey/Jordan Todman/Allan Hurns/Boobie Dixon/Lance Dunbar/Marcedes Lewis?

That's a large enough roster that holding on to defenses makes sense.

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

Am I being a dumbass for keeping two D/ST in my dynasty league? We have pretty large rosters (30 spots including IR) so the waiver is pretty bare and we've already had our rookie draft. Should I drop the texans or the cardinals and pick up Bobby Rainey/Jordan Todman/Allan Hurns/Boobie Dixon/Lance Dunbar/Marcedes Lewis?

I play in a 10man dynasty league with 30 roster spots and rock two DSTs. I dabble in 3 during the season if I feel I need to.

fariz
Nov 10, 2009

You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.
If I'm keeping Peterson (no penalty, every keeper is the first round pick), and another top RB is left over (Lacy), I take him and run laughing and screaming and crying, right? Or do I go for a top WR / Gronk?

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

fariz posted:

If I'm keeping Peterson (no penalty, every keeper is the first round pick), and another top RB is left over (Lacy), I take him and run laughing and screaming and crying, right? Or do I go for a top WR / Gronk?

Ride Lacy and Peterson to the championship IMO but I'm still a big believer in RB being the most consistent position in fantasy.

E: In my 3 years of winning championships I had absolute stud RBs (last year my idiot league went nuts with WRs and QBs so I managed to get Forte/Murray/Bell and I rode those ponies all the way without breaking a sweat).

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



fariz posted:

If I'm keeping Peterson (no penalty, every keeper is the first round pick), and another top RB is left over (Lacy), I take him and run laughing and screaming and crying, right? Or do I go for a top WR / Gronk?

What other RB options are there? What WR options are there? How many players and what are the scoring settings/rosters?

EDIT: Most likely, this is what you should do, but there can be other factors that affect this.

fariz
Nov 10, 2009

You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.
.5 PPR, 1QB, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1r/w
Lacy is the only tier 1 RB not being kept. After him there are guys like Foster / Hill / Anderson
WR options are Megatron, Dez, Julio, OBJ (pretty much every one really)

VDay
Jul 2, 2003

I'm Pacman Jones!
Yeah barring some weird/specific circumstances or scoring, I'd happily take that and then just pick up the best WR available with the next pick.

e: Posted right before the above post.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Any chance Hill falls to you next round if you grab Dez?

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Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
Patriots waived Tim Wright

Remember when he was supposed to be the next big star

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