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Varg posted:I drafted and held onto Jeremy Hill all last year apart from 1 week when I dropped him out of frustration and then picked him back up the next week before he became super useful In my dynasty league I drafted Giovani, then made sure to trade a couple dudes to get Hill before the season started. Guy I traded with got 2 players who scored a combined 5 fantasy points all season, I got J. Hill.
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Jun 12, 2015 21:36
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Keenan Allen at least had a huge year the year before last, so his regression was a little harder to see coming. Cordarelle Patterson was way over - hyped and over drafted even though he had little track record of success, and it destroyed people (me) who thought he could be a weekly WR2.
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Jun 12, 2015 21:46
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keenan allen has a special place in my heart because i was able to use him to trade for aj green 
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Jun 12, 2015 22:17
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VDay posted:Figuring out who you should drop early and who to hold on to all season is one of the more important and underrated fantasy skills imo. Way too many people get attached to their drafted players and have them sit on the bench for 9 weeks not doing anything before finally dropping them for a second defense or bye-week kicker. It can definitely bite you in the rear end sometimes, but I've found that being super aggressive with drops/waiver pickups pays off like 80% of the time, and I end up getting a league-winning player from the waiver wire almost every year that I win. Trading those players to someone willing to buy "low" is my favorite part of the fantasy season
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Jun 12, 2015 22:18
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LmaoTheKid posted:Too much churnin means you need some learnin Sometimes when your matchups don't got right and the other teams are doing the burning, you get the yearning for churning 
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Jun 12, 2015 22:53
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I traded Toby Gerhart for a 4th round pick minutes after the draft last year 
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Jun 13, 2015 00:02
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RCarr posted:I traded Toby Gerhart for a 4th round pick minutes after the draft last year Unloaded Zac Stacey for Alshon Jeffery after Week 2. 
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Jun 13, 2015 00:25
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Spoeank posted:Like half of y'all lit a roster spot on fire for 2014 Josh Gordon Fight Club Sandwich posted:Trading those players to someone willing to buy "low" is my favorite part of the fantasy season  Sataere posted:I think the way to really test this out would be to use last years projections against that draft-based simulator, and then measure the results that actually occurred.
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Jun 13, 2015 00:35
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My best trades last year:quote:Thu, Oct 9 quote:Wed, Oct 15 followed by my worst trade last year: quote:Wed, Oct 22  ...but I won my league anyway! 
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Jun 13, 2015 01:07
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Spoeank posted:Like half of y'all lit a roster spot on fire for 2014 Josh Gordon 
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Jun 13, 2015 01:42
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Also, hopefully I'm not too late for stat chat, but I'd love to see the zero-RB draft strategy analysis done using real scoring data from years past, rather than projected points data from this year. One of the arguments for using zero RB is that WRs are less likely to bust relative to their ADP. Using projected points to determine the success of the strategy doesn't really account for the bust factor. After all, if the RBs were projected to bust, they wouldn't be drafted so high in the first place.
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Jun 13, 2015 01:46
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Enforka posted:Also, hopefully I'm not too late for stat chat, but I'd love to see the zero-RB draft strategy analysis done using real scoring data from years past, rather than projected points data from this year. Zero RB strat last year was not viable. I did a bunch of mocks going for a Graham/Gronk or a DT/Peyton strat and kept getting Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey as RB1/2 and I wasn't comfortable with that
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Jun 13, 2015 02:23
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Jun 13, 2015 02:50
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Zero RB strat last year was not viable. I did a bunch of mocks going for a Graham/Gronk or a DT/Peyton strat and kept getting Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey as RB1/2 and I wasn't comfortable with that I actually drafted Graham and Gronk and ended up with Gerhart and Sankey as my RB1/2. Had I kept Bradshaw I would've ended up in the playoffs.
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Jun 13, 2015 02:53
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Zero RB strat last year was not viable. I did a bunch of mocks going for a Graham/Gronk or a DT/Peyton strat and kept getting Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey as RB1/2 and I wasn't comfortable with that I did the zero hb strat last year and only didn't win the league because graham decided to put up a goose egg in the playoffs. My hbs were Ingram and Fjax
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Jun 13, 2015 03:14
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Where were Gio Bernard and Knowshon Moreno going last year? If you drafted kne of them and handcuffed them late with Hill and Miller, it wouldn't have been a disaster.
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Jun 13, 2015 05:02
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Gio was a second rounder.
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Jun 13, 2015 06:04
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Zero RB strat last year was not viable. I did a bunch of mocks going for a Graham/Gronk or a DT/Peyton strat and kept getting Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey as RB1/2 and I wasn't comfortable with that I think RB's were a little more volatile, but not as much as the zero RB strategy would have you believe. I look at the top 8 projected RBs and if we remove AP because of his suspension, the only one who really was a bust was Montee Ball. It gets worse as you go further down in to the 15 and reach the Zac Stacy's and Ryan Mathews, but going RB with your first pick was no worse than going WR last year. My take away from all of this is that I'm going to go with what the draft gives me. Not all of my leagues are full of stat nerds who follow fantasy football closely, and I'm not going to stick with a zero RB strat if Lacy falls to me at the 1.12 or something. cheese fucked around with this message at 08:19 on Jun 13, 2015 |
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Jun 13, 2015 08:16
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cheese posted:A lot of the top 15 projected WR's pretty much hit their numbers, but some of the big ones that did not (AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz) were because of injuries. There were a few that just did not put up the numbers (Keenan Allen, Andrew Johnson, VJax) and a solid amount that were right on target. [....] I look at the top 8 projected RBs and if we remove AP because of his suspension, the only one who really was a bust was Montee Ball. It gets worse as you go further down in to the 15 and reach the Zac Stacy's and Ryan Mathews, but going RB with your first pick was no worse than going WR last year. However, I did think of another interesting tweak to the simulation I'd be interested in seeing: What if, the 0RB guy values his 3rd and 4th RBs more than he does his 3rd and 4th WR? The idea being that he loads up on RBs in the mid-rounds, hoping to hit a lotto ticket as RBs get injured or wash out. Maybe that would improve the results of the strategy?
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Jun 13, 2015 14:57
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Enforka posted:However, I did think of another interesting tweak to the simulation I'd be interested in seeing: What if, the 0RB guy values his 3rd and 4th RBs more than he does his 3rd and 4th WR? The idea being that he loads up on RBs in the mid-rounds, hoping to hit a lotto ticket as RBs get injured or wash out. Maybe that would improve the results of the strategy? That's basically 0RB in a nutshell. The whole point behind the strategy is to capitalize on the light level of turnover in the RB position. If you're drafting high upside WR sleepers after you already have Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson then your strategy is not very optimal IMO.
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Jun 13, 2015 16:49
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Zero RB strat last year was not viable. I did a bunch of mocks going for a Graham/Gronk or a DT/Peyton strat and kept getting Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey as RB1/2 and I wasn't comfortable with that Zero rb strat was totally viable. There were plenty of serviceable running backs that could be had for a very low cost. Off the top of my head: Hill, Crowell, CJ Anderson, Forsett, Asiata, and Tre Mason could all be had for late round picks and were startable players throughout the year. If you kept up with injuries and the waiver wire there were also backs that you play for a few weeks like Bobby Rainey, Alfed Blue, and Lorenzo Taliaferro. Drafting 'zero rb' or any other strategy doesn't mean your team will be good if you draft bad......which last year if your rb1/2 are Gerhart and Sankey then you done hosed up. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:That's basically 0RB in a nutshell. The whole point behind the strategy is to capitalize on the light level of turnover in the RB position. If you're drafting high upside WR sleepers after you already have Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson then your strategy is not very optimal IMO. I disagree with the last part. Taking a few high upside flyers after grabbing studs at that position is a fine move. The point of the draft is to maximize the value of your team, not to have the best week to week lineup. If you already have studs at wr but you feel like the best pick at your slot is a high upside wr....take them. If you hit you will be very rich at a position and you will have valuable assets to make a trade if you are weak elsewhere.
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Jun 13, 2015 17:06
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Pretty sure no one drafted Forsette. Maybe Anderson.
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Jun 13, 2015 17:18
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Enforka posted:Also, hopefully I'm not too late for stat chat, but I'd love to see the zero-RB draft strategy analysis done using real scoring data from years past, rather than projected points data from this year. Sure thing. A quick note before I do this: the way I'm calculating performance of these simulated "historical" drafts using last year's actual data is NOT the same as a real player would get during the season. Essentially what I'm doing is finding out "at the end of the season, which drafted players would give the most points if started every single week". It does NOT factor in stuff like breakout weeks or returns from injury or waiver wire or unexpected blowup games (e.g. Foles). This simplification makes it much easier to code, but it's important to note that we aren't finding the relative utility of drafts for real fantasy teams, we're finding the value of the "best season-long starters drafted". As a reminder of where we were valuing people last year, I ran a quick simulation to find what the draftboard would look like last year if every drafter went exactly by 2014 fantasypros consensus rank (adjusting for need):  (note: Python starts counting from "0" instead of "1", so the row marked "0" is the first round of the draft. The order starts at the top-left, then snakes down the board) And another simulation to find what the draftboard would look like last year if every drafter went exactly by 2014 ADP (adjusting for need), using the average of fantasyfootballcalculator adp and fantasypros adp:  Then, I allowed for "noisy drafting" so that there wouldn't be a single solution to the draft. This allowed me to calculate the "performance" of each drafter using actual points as described above. I started setting everybody to the the "draft by expert consensus rank and adjust for need" strategy I described earlier (250 sims): code:code:Then, I tried out a zero-rb approach from every other spot (to cut computation time in half - these sims are pretty demanding). Here's the difference between a consensus rank strategy and a zero-rb strategy after 250 sims from each zero-rb position: code:Qualitatively poking around some of the baseline drafts, it seems like drafter 10 could get either Murray or Lynch a lot at the 1/2 turn, like in this example: code:code:code:Simming what would happen if everybody went by ADP now to see if that changes anything... Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Jun 13, 2015 |
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Jun 13, 2015 17:47
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Enforka posted:However, I did think of another interesting tweak to the simulation I'd be interested in seeing: What if, the 0RB guy values his 3rd and 4th RBs more than he does his 3rd and 4th WR? The idea being that he loads up on RBs in the mid-rounds, hoping to hit a lotto ticket as RBs get injured or wash out. Maybe that would improve the results of the strategy? This is a really great idea. Mind giving me some values to use? Here are the defaults again: code:Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Jun 13, 2015 |
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Jun 13, 2015 17:54
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Papes posted:I disagree with the last part. Taking a few high upside flyers after grabbing studs at that position is a fine move. The point of the draft is to maximize the value of your team, not to have the best week to week lineup. If you already have studs at wr but you feel like the best pick at your slot is a high upside wr....take them. If you hit you will be very rich at a position and you will have valuable assets to make a trade if you are weak elsewhere. I get your point, but I also feel like drafting to trade never works out. I would much rather focus on bolstering up my weak spots than taking a flyer. In the end I'd rather have a flyer RB than a flyer WR if my need is RB. That's not to say you don't draft on value. Personally I ignore most strategies and just go PBA based on where I draft.
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Jun 13, 2015 18:01
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Update: if everybody else in a 10-team standard league was drafting in accordance with the the typical ADP last year, a 0rb strategy sucked from every position (250 sims each):code:code:code:
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Jun 13, 2015 18:39
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Basically auction is where its at
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Jun 13, 2015 18:39
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Forever_Peace posted:Simming This is the word I use when one fantasy team steamrolls another "luckily i play against andrew's team during tampa's bye week so there's a chance I won't get simmed"
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Jun 13, 2015 18:55
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I did a little research to answer Forever_Peace, and I came away feeling that I misunderstood Zero RB. I always thought Zero RB meant you draft other positions of need in maybe the first 2-3 rounds and stockpile RBs after that, but now I'm convinced the strategy is intended to be more radical and WR oriented than I thought. Shawn Siegele was the guy who coined the phrase "zero RB" and in this column on zero RB he says the following:Shawn Siegele posted:Depending on how a draft is progressing, I will draft either one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or I will draft none at all. My preferred lineup after five rounds is to own one tight end (Graham/Gronk) and four wide receivers. I then focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses. So here's what I would propose as values for a 0RB draft simulation: code:It's hard to say if these values are any good without doing a simulation and looking over the roster to sanity check it though. In adjusting the RB/WR values so dramatically, I may have thrown off the QB/TE values. A ton of Siegele's sample rosters are available here from the 2013 season, and they might make for a good point of comparison.
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Jun 14, 2015 01:53
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A lot of what he is saying seems to be PPR oriented. He even says in one of his responses to the comments "I mean ya I would get an RB1 earlier if I was in standard" or something. It does sort of sound like he counts on being able to snag mid-late round RB's that blow up, like J. Hill and Crowell did last year. Either way, its hard to say that zero RB looked really good last year. God help you if you went Megatron-AJ Green-Keenan Allen-Crabtree with your first four picks or something. Even if you HAD managed to grab the right mid-late pick RBs like Hill and Crowell, you probably started 2-6 and were out of the playoffs by week 9. I look at the RB stats from last year and I don't see how you can expect to have grabbed the few late round RB's who put up big points to complement a season in which top 25 WR's seemed just as likely to underperform or be injured as top 25 RB's.
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Jun 14, 2015 22:03
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cheese posted:A lot of what he is saying seems to be PPR oriented. He even says in one of his responses to the comments "I mean ya I would get an RB1 earlier if I was in standard" or something. It does sort of sound like he counts on being able to snag mid-late round RB's that blow up, like J. Hill and Crowell did last year. Either way, its hard to say that zero RB looked really good last year. God help you if you went Megatron-AJ Green-Keenan Allen-Crabtree with your first four picks or something. Even if you HAD managed to grab the right mid-late pick RBs like Hill and Crowell, you probably started 2-6 and were out of the playoffs by week 9. I look at the RB stats from last year and I don't see how you can expect to have grabbed the few late round RB's who put up big points to complement a season in which top 25 WR's seemed just as likely to underperform or be injured as top 25 RB's. Am I missing something here because I had Crowell last year and was frustrated as all hell with the timeshare he was in with Tate and West. Sure he had a couple solid games but there was 0 consistency. It is true that the line kind of fell apart once their center went down so maybe he is a high upside pick this year?
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Jun 15, 2015 22:33
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RIP Zach Studfeld, the destitute man's pre-season Kyle Rudolph
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Jun 16, 2015 01:43
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The Browns backfield was and will be nothing more than a daily tournament play this year. Don't draft those guys at all... Crowell was barely startable as an RB4 last year.
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Jun 17, 2015 20:44
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Gyshall posted:The Browns backfield was and will be nothing more than a daily tournament play this year. Don't draft those guys at all... Crowell was barely startable as an RB4 last year.
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Jun 18, 2015 02:51
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Footballguys posted:CLE - RB Duke Johnson seen as three-down player yeah don't draft a Brown
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Jun 18, 2015 02:57
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There are Browns I'd consider drafting in IDP
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Jun 18, 2015 04:30
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cheese posted:It feels like there are even more backfields than usual that a total mess. The Browns arn't the only team who have a backfield that is entirely made up of late round fliers at best. Even some of the ones that seem like they have a decent starter like Dallas are just crazy risky. Who is this decent starter in Dallas you speak of
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Jun 18, 2015 05:26
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I'm doing an NFL.com league for the first time and I've never seen such dog poo poo rankings  
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Jun 18, 2015 06:29
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Varg posted:don't draft a Brown Did you lot burn all your irrational excitement on Charlie Fake I mean Charlie Sims?? His name is Duke Johnson you guys. Duke. Johnson. 
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Jun 18, 2015 07:17
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The Only Brown You Should Draft Is Josh Gordon
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Jun 18, 2015 14:21
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