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A cousin-in-law of mine just got involved in BeachBody, a fitness/supplement MLM. I could tell just from her Facebook post about it that it was fishy, and 5 seconds of googling later, my suspicions were confirmed. The problem is, this cousin-in-law dislikes most of my family (other than her husband, obviously), and I don't want to remove myself from the short list of familial contacts that my cousin still keeps. So I probably won't say anything. Bleh.
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Jun 24, 2015 14:06
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Beachbody is great for the exercise programs if you want something that's organized and you're intelligent enough to not do something that's going to hurt you while you're working out. Beachbody is terrible for "coaches" and supplements. The Insanity guy even says "hey, if you don't have the shakeology recovery drink, just drink some chocolate milk, it's pretty much the same nutrition-wise." We had tons of fat-bodies get in shape using Insanity and P90X in the army. But if they started buying branded supplements then hooooooly poo poo.
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Jun 24, 2015 15:32
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I just watched a guy get his credit card declined on a bunch of bananas. He just walked away. This is right next to the amazon main campus. He definitely was a blue badge as well. edit: I've been told I'm a judgmental dick for not immediately paying for his bananas. silicone thrills fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Jun 24, 2015 |
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Jun 24, 2015 15:53
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Tigntink posted:I just watched a guy get his credit card declined on a bunch of bananas. He just walked away. This is right next to the amazon main campus. I feel like 'blue badge' is important to the story, what is that?
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Jun 24, 2015 16:17
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BossRighteous posted:I feel like 'blue badge' is important to the story, what is that? Sorry, it means he is directly employed by amazon. Not a contractor or temp. Which means the guy is pulling at minimum 75,000 a year.
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Jun 24, 2015 16:21
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Tigntink posted:Sorry, it means he is directly employed by amazon. Not a contractor or temp. Which means the guy is pulling at minimum 75,000 a year. In Seattle? Isn't that basically nothing?
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Jun 24, 2015 16:42
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No Butt Stuff posted:In Seattle? Isn't that basically nothing? Na. If you want to live like slomo sure but I have worked for a government agency and a non profit making less than 55,000 and its not like I could buy a house on that money by myself but you can certainly live in a nice apartment with roommates or if you shop around in a 1 bedroom comfortably. As long as you are willing to bus it to downtown or bike from the north or the south side, its reasonable. It's obviously far easier to live here on dual income though.
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Jun 24, 2015 16:52
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Seattle has a decently high cost of living, but it's completely possible to thrive on $75k a year there. We're not talking San Fran or NYC here. I mean, hell, I made less than that in Washington DC, which I'm pretty sure has a higher cost of living, and still managed to max out my 401k.
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Jun 24, 2015 16:52
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Not a Children posted:A cousin-in-law of mine just got involved in BeachBody, a fitness/supplement MLM. I could tell just from her Facebook post about it that it was fishy, and 5 seconds of googling later, my suspicions were confirmed. I know someone who's way into the beach body/shakeology crap to the point where she's on the verge of quitting her actual job for it. In theory it seems like a decent program, but why do you need to pay a coach to do exercise DVDs at home?
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Jun 24, 2015 18:14
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Not a Children posted:Seattle has a decently high cost of living, but it's completely possible to thrive on $75k a year there. We're not talking San Fran or NYC here. I mean, hell, I made less than that in Washington DC, which I'm pretty sure has a higher cost of living, and still managed to max out my 401k. Yeah, I get by very comfortably in Seattle on $70k, and have done so on less, though with negligible savings at the time.
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Jun 24, 2015 18:29
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Aquatic Giraffe posted:I know someone who's way into the beach body/shakeology crap to the point where she's on the verge of quitting her actual job for it. Because people love a quick fix. A lifetime of exercise and eating properly isn't easy to sell, but a 30-day cleanse/detox/muscle-confusion blah blah blah will always hook lazy morons with expendable income.
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Jun 24, 2015 18:44
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Not a Children posted:A cousin-in-law of mine just got involved in BeachBody, a fitness/supplement MLM. I could tell just from her Facebook post about it that it was fishy, and 5 seconds of googling later, my suspicions were confirmed. One thing that fascinates me about the Financial Matrix is that they seem to have somewhat google-proofed their scam. If you type in "Financial Matrix scam," the first page of results will only be documents that they generated-- "Q: Is the Financial Matrix a scam? A: No! ..." "Let the Financial Matrix make you rich! Don't fall for the mainstream banking scam!..." These aren't word-for-word quotes because I can't be bothered to google them again, but I thought it was a very interesting, if totally unscrupulous, use of SEO. Sorry for posting so much about this--my friend got to the part where the book suggested that all readers watch The Matrix and couldn't go any further, so I guess I don't have to worry about someone conning him into a MLM. 
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Jun 24, 2015 20:49
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Almost all MLM scams have done that sort of search engine fuckery. You sometimes have to go a few pages in before you get any real (not bullshit) hits.
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Jun 24, 2015 20:53
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My sister in law joined this recently: http://www.lularoe.com/join-the-movement-page/ But I can't tell if it's a scam, or just a really lovely business model for the sellers since they take on much of the company's risk (sellers buy products "wholesale" from the company to sell to end customers). I'd say it's like Mary Kay or Tupperware maybe? Dunno. I'd be curious to see if the company has higher profit margins than the sellers.
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Jun 24, 2015 20:55
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Is there any company like that that seems like a scam, and isn't?
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Jun 24, 2015 21:13
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I've seen so many more Herbalife and Advocare car decals around my place lately, although they didn't make me laugh as much as the "run your car on water" guy. Thankfully, one of my high school friends on Facebook finally stopped pushing Mary Kay and another stopped promoting his wife's essential oils (thank god we take these so we're not sick as often)... It's been a breath of fresh air. Full disclosure: at some point in college I signed up for an entry level starter pack for Quixtar, not understanding what it was. Immediately chalked it up to youthful negligence and valuable lesson learned for only about $150 or so. Still a little mad at myself about that.
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Jun 25, 2015 01:16
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The local newspaper here just had an interesting advice column. Some guy wrote in complaining about his girlfriend routinely asking him for help paying for things like groceries and car repairs after spending all her money on fancy pants beauty services (hair extensions and the like). The columnist talked about how many women, in response to falling on hard times, will have their primal "find a mate" urges go into overdrive - in this case, ironically straining her relationship with the mate she already has. triplexpac posted:Is there any company like that that seems like a scam, and isn't? Is "door to door sales by people with little to no training" even a viable marketing strategy for an honest business in this day and age?
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Jun 25, 2015 02:17
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One of my coworkers has bought into Amway 100%. I tried to warn him off, but he wouldn't listen, so now I'm just sitting back and watching.
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Jun 25, 2015 02:56
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Cockmaster posted:The columnist talked about how many women, in response to falling on hard times, will have their primal "find a mate" urges go into overdrive - in this case, ironically straining her relationship with the mate she already has. All too common. I remember one of my friends she loved buying a fancy $300 dress. I pointed out that maybe paying off the $500 overdraft that was always maxed out might be a better idea.
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Jun 25, 2015 03:06
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Taking an undergrad course in markets in night school. We had an example comparing two securities costing $10,000, one with 5% expected return and a 1% chance of default and one with 7% expected return and a 25% chance of default. 70% of the class polled said they personally would buy the high-risk, high-return one 
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Jun 25, 2015 03:28
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Saeku posted:Taking an undergrad course in markets in night school. We had an example comparing two securities costing $10,000, one with 5% expected return and a 1% chance of default and one with 7% expected return and a 25% chance of default. 70% of the class are bad with money. Literally the difference between a BBB+ and a CC credit rating.
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Jun 25, 2015 03:35
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Saeku posted:Taking an undergrad course in markets in night school. We had an example comparing two securities costing $10,000, one with 5% expected return and a 1% chance of default and one with 7% expected return and a 25% chance of default. Behavioral finance is really interesting. Look into Prospect Theory if this stuff interests you. People aren't rational investors most of the time.
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Jun 25, 2015 03:43
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Maybe 70% of the class needed to pay a loan shark $11,000 or they'd be killed and they only had 10,000? You don't know their utility functions. 
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Jun 25, 2015 03:48
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Saeku posted:Taking an undergrad course in markets in night school. We had an example comparing two securities costing $10,000, one with 5% expected return and a 1% chance of default and one with 7% expected return and a 25% chance of default. If you're talking about just an absolute risk and return yeah that's dumb, but if you were talking about annual returns then after a long enough term the 7% return starts running away and becomes the higher EV investment even with a 25% lifetime chance of default.
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Jun 25, 2015 05:21
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My company hired a receptionist once who sold Herbalife products to some of my other coworkers and then quit without notice one day after someone disabled our phones and attempted to process a 10 million dollar wire with a stamped signature from the CFO. They could never prove it was her though.
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Jun 25, 2015 05:21
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BEHOLD: MY CAPE posted:If you're talking about just an absolute risk and return yeah that's dumb, but if you were talking about annual returns then after a long enough term the 7% return starts running away and becomes the higher EV investment even with a 25% lifetime chance of default. If I've done the maths right the 25% failure one becomes a better idea after around 15 years, assuming annually compounding interest, and the failure rates being over the whole lifetime.
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Jun 25, 2015 05:45
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BEHOLD: MY CAPE posted:If you're talking about just an absolute risk and return yeah that's dumb, but if you were talking about annual returns then after a long enough term the 7% return starts running away and becomes the higher EV investment even with a 25% lifetime chance of default. It's a fixed-term security, and that's the risk of default over one year, which is incorporated in the expected return. The other students might have just interpreted the question ("Which would you personally buy?") more abstractly than me, because the 2nd investment is better if losing $10,000 is nbd for you. Which is probably not a financial situation most undergrads are in.
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Jun 25, 2015 05:54
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Cockmaster posted:The local newspaper here just had an interesting advice column. Some guy wrote in complaining about his girlfriend routinely asking him for help paying for things like groceries and car repairs after spending all her money on fancy pants beauty services (hair extensions and the like). I've had a few friends who don't realise how much it costs to maintain a particular look. Individually the items may be inexpensive, but over time they really add up, especially if you are expected to do it every day or as a part of your job. It is an almost impossible battle to win - either you're wasting too much time and money on makeup and clothes, or you have "let yourself go". Not to mention female cosmetic products can be ruinously expensive, especially if you have sensitive skin or allergies. A couple of weeks ago there was a thread on reddit where the OP was told she spent too much money on cosmetic products, and that she would have to stop. She stopped and he started making comments about her appearance after her makeup ran out. While I have no idea how they went after that, it soon came to light that instead of saving the money she no longer spent on makeup, instead he used it all at the Steam sale.
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Jun 25, 2015 05:55
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froglet posted:A couple of weeks ago there was a thread on reddit where the OP was told she spent too much money on cosmetic products, and that she would have to stop. She stopped and he started making comments about her appearance after her makeup ran out. While I have no idea how they went after that, it soon came to light that instead of saving the money she no longer spent on makeup, instead he used it all at the Steam sale. "Hey baby you look like poo poo today. By the way I spent all your savings from not buying cosmetics on games."
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Jun 25, 2015 06:18
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SpelledBackwards posted:I've seen so many more Herbalife and Advocare car decals around my place lately, although they didn't make me laugh as much as the "run your car on water" guy. Thankfully, one of my high school friends on Facebook finally stopped pushing Mary Kay and another stopped promoting his wife's essential oils (thank god we take these so we're not sick as often)... It's been a breath of fresh air. If you guys haven't read about the Bill Ackman / Herbalife debacle, I strongly recommend a read. tl;dr is basically hedge agrees what Herbalife is a scam and bets big (to the tune of half a billion dollars) that it will eventually collapse. There has been an epic back and forth over the past couple years between these two.
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Jun 25, 2015 06:35
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Saeku posted:It's a fixed-term security, and that's the risk of default over one year, which is incorporated in the expected return. If you were offered this as an investment yearly that you could re-up with a 25% chance each year of default (basically a weighted coin flip), the second option is brutally horrible. You should probably be willing to put no more than 79% of your assets in the 5/1 investment, versus -280% of your assets in the 7/25.
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Jun 25, 2015 08:33
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The thing with the 10k is that it's too chunky for most people. Even if buying hundreds of the 7/25 will be much better than the 5/1, people with only 10k can't absorb a loss. If the 7% is risk adjusted the real rate of return on a successful run is 42.6%, which is better if you can absorb the losses, but the 5/1 ends up being safer if you're repeatedly doing this. With the 5/1 (6% real) you have an ~84% chance of reaching 20k, doubling, in 16 years, and only a 1% of returning 0. The 7/25 has a 42% chance of reaching 20k+ but in only three years. If these were independent $1 securities and you were forced to buy them in 10k lots then it would be a no-brainer even with only 10k to start. This all goes out the window if they're not independent, which is why it's only useful as a thought experiment. e: To be clear: I agree that, in reality, the 5/1 is the infinitely better investment. e2: VVVVV Yes I know, I was almost going to mention the subprime mortgage shenanigans. The "problem" (well, besides the outright dishonesty and bad practices) with those is that they weren't truly independent. If the economy turns bad then many people are likely to default at once. Even assuming the 25% failure rate is somehow honest and correct, you can have three years of 0 failures followed by 100% failures in the 4th year and still average out to 25%. If they're independent events this would be astronomically unlikely, but nothing is truly independent since the economy as a whole is a pretty big unifier. Desuwa fucked around with this message at 09:22 on Jun 25, 2015 |
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Jun 25, 2015 09:05
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Desuwa posted:If these were independent $1 securities and you were forced to buy them in 10k lots then it would be a no-brainer even with only 10k to start. This could apply to the real world if you securitised them and then paid for favourable credit ratings. Then, of course, you sell them on after repackaging the financial instruments so you take zero risk.
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Jun 25, 2015 09:15
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Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:well at least we'll know its a scam if they recommend matrix 2 Now I want to hear The Architect ramble on about horse equity.
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Jun 25, 2015 16:40
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CannonFodder posted:Now I want to hear The Architect ramble on about horse equity. "...rest assured, this is the sixth horse that we've put down because of a broken leg, and we have become exceedingly efficient at it."
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Jun 25, 2015 16:56
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Is it safe to assume that the apocalypse as foretold in the Book of Revelations will never happen then because the costs of maintaining those horses is too much for the four horsemen? And even if it wasn't, one of the horses would probably get spooked so Pestilence wouldn't ever happen anyway? VVV EDIT: So it is! Now I can't wait to spend all that extra cash I can save by not printing that extra "s" on all those pieces of paper I give away on the street corner. Antifreeze Head fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Jun 25, 2015 |
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Jun 25, 2015 17:20
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Antifreeze Head posted:Is it safe to assume that the apocalypse as foretold in the Book of Revelations will never happen then because the costs of maintaining those horses is too much for the four horsemen? And even if it wasn't, one of the horses would probably get spooked so Pestilence wouldn't ever happen anyway? Book of Revelation (no 's' at the end) 
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Jun 25, 2015 18:24
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Desuwa posted:Yes I know, I was almost going to mention the subprime mortgage shenanigans. The "problem" (well, besides the outright dishonesty and bad practices) with those is that they weren't truly independent. If the economy turns bad then many people are likely to default at once. Even assuming the 25% failure rate is somehow honest and correct, you can have three years of 0 failures followed by 100% failures in the 4th year and still average out to 25%. If they're independent events this would be astronomically unlikely, but nothing is truly independent since the economy as a whole is a pretty big unifier. Reminds me of what happened when Prudential decided to make a foray into real estate insurance a couple of decades ago. Some clever suit realized that the badly fragmented home insurance market was ripe for a big player to swoop in and corner the market, so Prudential used their considerable money and clout to quickly accumulate a leading market share in some regions. Then Hurricane Andrew hit, and Prudential found out the reason why all the major players in property insurance maintained such a seemingly small presence. There's a key difference between property insurance and Prudential's core life insurance business--life insurance claims are single, independent events whereas homeowner claims are often widespread events. Because they held such a high concentration of homeowner policies for the areas that got hit they were slammed with claims and wound up having to cough up something like 10% of the company to bail out the property insurance unit.
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Jun 25, 2015 19:31
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What math are you using where the 7% option makes any sense. 7% has an expected return of 8250. 5% is 10350. Am I missing something or are you all bwm?
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Jun 25, 2015 19:47
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Cast_No_Shadow posted:What math are you using where the 7% option makes any sense. The 7% is after adjusting for risk. Real returns without a default would be 42.6% or so. 0.75*(1+x) + 0.25*0 = 1.07
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Jun 25, 2015 20:18
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