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Voyager I posted:What do China and America even try to have a conventional war about? Attacking the mainlands in either direction is obviously a non-starter, so is there even anything within either of our spheres of influence that the other would care enough to fight a war over? Sinking their entire navy and then lobbing metal slugs over the horizon via railgun at various inland military targets until they agree to knock it the hell off. Edit: Also yes, Japan would be the catalyst.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:50
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Fried Chicken posted:So hey while you all are focusing on NATO and Eastern Europe, remember that in the last few months Right. I'd like to hope the fact that China owns a lot of our money and the fact that they won't get it if they blow us up would discourage them from doing that. Also the fact that we buy a lot manufactured goods from them.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:53
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Fried Chicken posted:So hey while you all are focusing on NATO and Eastern Europe, remember that in the last few months But Tom Clancy made them seem so ridiculous and us seem so powerful!
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Jun 30, 2015 19:56
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I straight up can't imagine why we'd have a war with China. Yeah, Japan is another of those Armageddon lines, but why would China attack Japan at this point? The tiny little island disputes that haven't provoked actual war in the how many decades they've been running? e: Besides, as far as I can tell China is winning the economic "war" for influence. Why the hell would they jeopardize that with military warfare? Corbeau fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Jun 30, 2015 |
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Jun 30, 2015 19:56
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Corbeau posted:I straight up can't imagine why we'd have a war with China. Yeah, Japan is another of those Armageddon lines, but why would China attack Japan at this point? The tiny little island disputes that haven't provoked actual war in the how many decades they've been running? Everyone in East Asia hates Japan. Exempted are (most of ) Japan itself and I guess Taiwan because they were sort of a model colony.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:57
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computer parts posted:Everyone in East Asia hates Japan. Exempted are (most of ) Japan itself and I guess Taiwan because they were sort of a model colony. I don't see how that turns into a casus belli though.
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Jun 30, 2015 19:59
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Corbeau posted:e: Besides, as far as I can tell China is winning the economic "war" for influence. Why the hell would the jeopardize that with military warfare? Internal Economic pressures. If things start heading south, that dissent is best focused outward, and who better to focus it on than Japan?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:00
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Corbeau posted:I straight up can't imagine why we'd have a war with China. Yeah, Japan is another of those Armageddon lines, but why would China attack Japan at this point? The tiny little island disputes that haven't provoked actual war in the how many decades they've been running? Japan is not very popular in its former sphere of colonialism, though the idea of a war between China and Japan that draws in America / other international interests is more the closest thing to a conceivable scenario that would draw America into a war with China than a likely course of events.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:00
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If the Chinese version of the F-35 can fly across the International Dateline without the computer dying, then we're screwed
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Jun 30, 2015 20:01
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FlamingLiberal posted:If the Chinese version of the F-35 can fly across the International Dateline without the computer dying, then we're screwed Impossible, that is a core component of the F-35
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Jun 30, 2015 20:03
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Corbeau posted:I don't see how that turns into a casus belli though. Cynical answer: It'll probably be those uninhabited islands they're constantly squabbling over that nobody else gives a poo poo about.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:03
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GlyphGryph posted:Internal Economic pressures. If things start heading south, that dissent is best focused outward, and who better to focus it on than Japan? How about someone who doesn't have the backing of a nuclear superpower?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:03
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I cannot imagine China going to war and NOT having some sort of internal coup come out of it. Their Navy is still largely in development, their economy is too deeply tied to outside influences and their politicians are comfy.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:03
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computer parts posted:Everyone in East Asia hates Japan. Exempted are (most of ) Japan itself and I guess Taiwan because they were sort of a model colony. Everyone in East Asia hates the poo poo out of each other.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:03
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An occupation of Taiwan seems more likely than an attack on Japan but still way out in crazy Clancy novel land.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:05
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Grapplejack posted:Everyone in East Asia hates the poo poo out of each other. Chinese don't really care about Koreans from what I've seen but I guess the opposite direction has hate.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:07
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hobbesmaster posted:An occupation of Taiwan seems more likely than an attack on Japan but still way out in crazy Clancy novel land. I don't think anyone would go to war over Taiwan. It would be hugely impractical trying to contest something that close to China, Taiwan isn't important enough to warrant those kind of commitments, and Taiwan is so outgunned it would probably be fait accompli before anyone could even think about mobilizing. We'd probably see another round of sanctions out of it, but no shooting.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:09
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Voyager I posted:What do China and America even try to have a conventional war about? A choreographed excuse to spin up war time economies in both to paper over an impending crisis, with various contractors getting rich on the sides. The Chinese also get to bleed off a bunch of "excess population" by allowing the war to take place on their soil. After enough profit has been made and graves dug, the Chinese and American leaders launch their preplanned peace conference, graciously accept each other's miniscule demands and go back to being buddies. The next year's Call Of Duty features the Chinese Campaign. That's the closest thing I could come up with to a reasonable war between China/US.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:10
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Crain posted:Of all the things you do not want to give the American military, a conventional war where they are not the aggressor is at the top of that loving list. Oh lord it's the modern day equivalent of starting a land war in Russia.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:10
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I keep saying, look north. Arctic circle is where the next war will start - between Russia and China. (my best guess at strongest odds.)
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Jun 30, 2015 20:11
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Wouldn't going to war with the US (or a close US ally like Japan) seriously wreck the Chinese economy?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:12
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Corbeau posted:I straight up can't imagine why we'd have a war with China. Yeah, Japan is another of those Armageddon lines, but why would China attack Japan at this point? The tiny little island disputes that haven't provoked actual war in the how many decades they've been running? Sometimes you've just got to invade Iraq, man.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:14
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The NSA dragnet program is back
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Jun 30, 2015 20:14
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Alien Arcana posted:Wouldn't going to war This applies for any remotely developed nation these days. The question everyone is waiting with bated breath the answer to is, is that enough of a deterrent?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:14
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Mister Macys posted:Sometimes you've just got to invade Iraq, man. China should follow tradition of the other super powers and get into a decade long quagmire in Afghanistan. They have to either annex Tajikistan or Pakistan+Kashmir to get there but thats all the more opportunity for quagmires!
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Jun 30, 2015 20:17
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Antti posted:This applies for any remotely developed nation these days. The question everyone is waiting with bated breath the answer to is, is that enough of a deterrent? The world powers thought that would prevent WWI too, but it still happened.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:17
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I wanted to post this, but from the article it seemed like it already "came back" with the freedom act?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:17
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Antti posted:This applies for any remotely developed nation these days. The question everyone is waiting with bated breath the answer to is, is that enough of a deterrent? Nuclear Holocaust kept the nukes from flying for 60yr so far so sure why not?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:17
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http://www.salon.com/2015/06/30/african_american_flagger_says_confederate_flag_isnt_about_race_slavery_was_a_choice/quote:A member of the group known as “The Virginia Flaggers” — who claim as their “weapon…the Confederate Battle Flag” and their “enemies…those who worship ignorance, historical revisionism and Political Correctness” — declared in a recent interview that despite being black herself, she believes the Confederate battle flag “represents freedom.” Is Allen West married yet?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:17
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Warcabbit posted:I keep saying, look north. Arctic circle is where the next war will start - between Russia and China. (my best guess at strongest odds.) Ok, you know how people have invoked Tom Clancy's name to indicate this is all incredibly dumb speculation? What you've just suggested is Literally the main plot to one of the more ridiculous Clancy novels. Other, only marginally dumber, subplot aspects include the assassination of the Vatican ambassador by the Chinese military for trying to intervene to prevent a forced abortion.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:17
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Ok, you know how people have invoked Tom Clancy's name to indicate this is all incredibly dumb speculation? What you've just suggested is Literally the main plot to one of the more ridiculous Clancy novels. To be fair, has every possible scenario Future War been covered by that crazy bin?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:19
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What are the odds that the program is somehow extended into next year
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Jun 30, 2015 20:20
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CommieGIR posted:I cannot imagine China going to war and NOT having some sort of internal coup come out of it. Their Navy is still largely in development, their economy is too deeply tied to outside influences and their politicians are comfy. Pretty much. I was trying to make the point that it's in more or less the same position as the Russia pearl clutching going on earlier - it is a bad set up with a lot of potential for things to go very very wrong that seems unlikely due to relative strength and economic ties. But it is also a situation where poor leadership pushing the envelope out of domestic pressures, pride, and a nationalist narrative could really send poo poo off the rails. I don't think Putin is as half mad as Max Fisher paints him as - you don't last as long and climb as high as he did in the KGB and Moscow politics by being anything other than a cunning survivor. And survivors don't gently caress around with nukes. You see the same thing in the South Pacific with those stupid sand bars people pretend are real islands and Xi's government. He didn't get where he was without a sharp sense of how to play the game. Which means he knows the top of the checklist is "no conventional war against the U.S. where you start with a surprise attack"
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Jun 30, 2015 20:21
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DemeaninDemon posted:To be fair, has every possible scenario Future War been covered by that crazy bin? He did a multi-book arc in which a sinister conspiracy between Japan, China, and India to form essentially a neo-East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere was incrementally foiled by a heroic America and suddenly-one-of-the-good-guys Russia. It all started with the Japanese seizing the Marianas in Debt of Honor, and was the last piece of evidence I needed to conclude Clancy's mind could not function properly in a post-Cold War world.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:22
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Sir Tonk posted:http://www.salon.com/2015/06/30/african_american_flagger_says_confederate_flag_isnt_about_race_slavery_was_a_choice/ http://www.theonion.com/article/black-man-support-confederate-flag-triples-his-med-50727
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Jun 30, 2015 20:22
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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/01/u...v=top-news&_r=0quote:The stunning series of liberal decisions delivered by the Supreme Court this term was the product of discipline on the left side of the court and disarray on the right. Also, cool graphic: 
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Jun 30, 2015 20:27
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Antti posted:This applies for any remotely developed nation these days. The question everyone is waiting with bated breath the answer to is, is that enough of a deterrent? Nah, doesn't apply for Russia to be quite honest.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:27
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On the topic of the F-35: Test Pilot Admits the F-35 Can't Dogfight Somewhere John Boys is spinning in his grave
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Jun 30, 2015 20:27
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China is not going to upend decades of diplomatic relations just because they have some whiny, bored officers 
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Jun 30, 2015 20:30
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Alien Arcana posted:Wouldn't going to war with the US (or a close US ally like Japan) seriously wreck the Chinese economy? Everyone's planning on a Splendid Little War where the US just gives up rather than risk an actual fight, not some knock-down-drag-out affair with actual ships getting sunk and stuff.
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Jun 30, 2015 20:30
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