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I feel like Forsett and Anderson are both traps this year. Can anybody explain why they'd take them so high, particularly Anderson?
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Jun 30, 2015 18:34
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GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:I feel like Forsett and Anderson are both traps this year. Can anybody explain why they'd take them so high, particularly Anderson? Anderson's job as the starter is his to lose and the Bronco's are looking to be much more run heavy so Peyton doesn't get so worn down. I agree that Forsett looks like a trap. Anderson I'm on the fence on though, it's hard for me to justify taking him late in the 1st or early in the 2nd, but the mock's I've done so far having him going around there.
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Jun 30, 2015 18:42
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Beersheets doesn't have to answer this, I'm sure it's come up before (I'm looking at 1PPR/1QB/2R/2R/1T/1F but this follows for most PPR) Do his sheets always suggest elite WR's are underdrafted in PPR? He has the first 5 WR's with a higher value than the first RB. It's interesting that while Gronk owns a lot of the position scarcity, but his value puts him as worth taking in the late 2nd or early 3rd. The definition of Elite (top 1/3 of position) is unclear to me. In a 12 team league does this mean top 4? Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Jun 30, 2015 |
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Jun 30, 2015 18:47
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GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:I feel like Forsett and Anderson are both traps this year. Can anybody explain why they'd take them so high, particularly Anderson? MacheteZombie posted:Anderson's job as the starter is his to lose and the Bronco's are looking to be much more run heavy so Peyton doesn't get so worn down. I agree that Forsett looks like a trap. Anderson I'm on the fence on though, it's hard for me to justify taking him late in the 1st or early in the 2nd, but the mock's I've done so far having him going around there. I'd agree on Anderson being a trap for his first/early second round ADP due to the Bronco's worse O-line this year and the stable of backs behind him that are all pretty studly (Hillman, Thompson mainly). Not sure why you'd say Forsett is a trap, though... I'm seeing him go in 3rd/4th/5th rounds as an RB2/3 and I think he definitely has a good chance at being a serviceable RB2. What am I missing here, apart from the departure of Kubiak?
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Jun 30, 2015 20:51
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Amergin posted:Not sure why you'd say Forsett is a trap, though... I'm seeing him go in 3rd/4th/5th rounds as an RB2/3 and I think he definitely has a good chance at being a serviceable RB2. What am I missing here, apart from the departure of Kubiak? He's old, and both Buck Allen and Taliaferro are looking really good so far in the pre-season. Edit: I'd be more confident of his value in a PPR setting, but even then, I'm fading his age. 30+ is the death zone for RBs. I'm staying away from Peterson for the same reason.
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Jun 30, 2015 21:43
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Amergin posted:I'd agree on Anderson being a trap for his first/early second round ADP due to the Bronco's worse O-line this year and the stable of backs behind him that are all pretty studly (Hillman, Thompson mainly). My feelings on Forsett are more personal opinion than any statistical fact about Forsett. He's been in the league since 08, and his breakout season was at the ripe old age of 28. I won't disagree that he will probably be serviceable as an RB2, and while still early in the mock season I've seen him going around round 3 pretty consistently. That seems far too early for me. The 5th round is about the point I'd take him if I needed another RB.
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Jun 30, 2015 21:44
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Its Miller Time posted:Beersheets, it's really starting to feel like a new season. I like the E/S/P idea, I tend to forget how a player did last year only to realize I drafted someone who had 600 yards but everyone assumes will get 1200... I can do pretty much any roster format that's reasonable. The hard part is deciding what should be added to my "standard" sheets. What size league? What roster format? Stuff like that. Its Miller Time posted:Beersheets doesn't have to answer this, I'm sure it's come up before (I'm looking at 1PPR/1QB/2R/2R/1T/1F but this follows for most PPR) Elite WRs are almost always undervalued in PPR because how many points they score compared to the replacement tier guys. They're also generally more reliable sources of points because stud WRs (especially with PPR) have a higher floor. Gronk's value is nuts this year. Look at his standard deviation. People have no idea WTF to do about him. In a 12 team ESPN league it means the top 4 QBs, top 8 RBs, top 8 WRs, top 4 TEs. I might change it around to something else if it's confusing.
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Jun 30, 2015 22:02
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What's E/S/P? I feel like I should remember this, but I don't.
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Jun 30, 2015 22:58
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Leperflesh posted:What's E/S/P? I feel like I should remember this, but I don't. Not sure how, I just added it this year. Also everything is explained in the link. E/S/P: This is how the player did last year. E stands for Elite, and represents the number of games the player put up points worthy of the top 1/3 of starter-worthy players in his position (QB4 or better in a 12 team 1QB league). S stands for Starter, and represents the number of times the player put up points worthy of a starter (QB12 or better in a 12 team 1QB league). P stands for played; the number of weeks the player actually played assuming a 16 week season. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Jun 30, 2015 |
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Jun 30, 2015 23:27
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Ah, thanks. Yeah I just jumped to the link and mashed things as fast as possible to get to the downloads so that's on me for not reading.
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Jun 30, 2015 23:57
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Beer, I'm sure you've been pestered about this before but do you have any plans on doing IDP sheets? I'm dipping my toes into IDP for the first time this year (along with dynasty and keeper leagues  ) and it's been a pain trying to find decent rankings that integrate IDP into offensive picks. All I see is "try to get Watt in the 6th, go DEs before DB/LB, and start taking other IDP slots when the IDP run starts" and "Go see FantasyPros for IDP rankings." Which is better than nothing but still, I have a feeling I'm going to lose a good bit of money this year (and hopefully not permanently screw myself in the dynasty/keeper leagues) from being a newbie.
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Jun 30, 2015 23:59
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I'm working on it, and I think I might. Especially if the Charity League decides to go with IDP. So join the charity league and vote for it.
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Jul 1, 2015 02:31
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Forsett is going to be just fine with Trestman... But most people are just high on him for the value he was last year... He won a ton of teams championships. I think he is a good option compared to the other guys around his ADP
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Jul 1, 2015 04:02
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Franks Happy Place posted:Edit: I'd be more confident of his value in a PPR setting, but even then, I'm fading his age. 30+ is the death zone for RBs. I'm staying away from Peterson for the same reason. I artificially built up Peterson's value in my league by holding onto him almost the entire season, only dropping him before playoffs. Someone picked him up right after to use as a keeper this year (worth 1+1). I think winning the league made everyone think I'm an expert (which I totally am, duh). IIRC, 4-5 people tried to use waivers to pick him up.
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Jul 1, 2015 05:08
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The best was watching people blow 50%+ of their FAAB dollars last year on Peterson.
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Jul 1, 2015 15:10
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Beer - The concept is clear, it's just tricky to word. I'd just add an (e.g.,), people will get what you mean immediately then. I'd use at least 2 examples, showing how the number is multiplied by the number of positions and showing which way you round in 8, 14 and 16 team leagues not evenly divisible by 3.
Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Jul 1, 2015 |
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Jul 1, 2015 17:55
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Its Miller Time posted:Beer - The concept is clear, it's just tricky to word. I'd just add an (e.g.,), people will get what you mean immediately then. I'd use at least 2 examples, showing how the number is multiplied by the number of positions and showing which way you round in 8, 14 and 16 team leagues not evenly divisible by 3. Sounds good.
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Jul 1, 2015 18:30
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Counts on fingers...10 is also not divisible by 3. edit: J. Hill went 2.3 in my most recent MFL ahead of Jordy, Cobb and Alshon or Foster, Anderson, Forsett, Murray and McCoy. Agree? I think the current rankings (PPR ECR) might oversell Hill (#11) and undersell Gio (#22). Last year they went: Gio: 168 attempts, 680 yards, 5 TD's, another 43 receptions, 349 yards and 2 TD's total for 188 points and #16 for the year Hill: 222 attempts, 1124 yards, 9 TD's, another 27 receptions, 215 yards and 0 receiving TD's for 215 points and #10 for the year. They both have pretty good YPC but Hill's is insane. 5.06 and Gio's 4.05. Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Jul 1, 2015 |
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Jul 1, 2015 19:01
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Its Miller Time posted:Counts on fingers...10 is also not divisible by 3. Wasn't Gio the clear lead back there before he got injured somewhere around 1/3-1/2 through the season, though? I agree with you that especially in a PPR Hill is probably a bit overvalued and Gio undervalued, though.
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Jul 1, 2015 23:33
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The thing is that comparing their stats like that is kind of pointless since they switched jobs/roles halfway through the season. Hill managed to pitch in some decent games and some TDs while he was backing Gio up, and as soon as he got the starting job he ran for like 100+ yards/game the rest of the year. I agree that Gio has some value in PPR, but that starting job is Hill's now and it looks like he's about to potentially have a monster year. In my standard friend league I'm definitely aiming to grab him in the second and hoping that because I had him last year none of my friends will realize his potential.
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Jul 2, 2015 00:05
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I have CJ Anderson as a 17th round keeper to go with Jeremy Hill in the 10th and Charles in the 13th so 
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Jul 2, 2015 03:27
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If I were to set up an RSO mock draft, would anyone be interested in trying it out? http://www.realitysportsonline.com/RSOLanding.aspx The caveat here is that it is a live auction draft, so we'd need to schedule a time when people have a few hours to do it. The process isn't like a normal auction draft, you offer players contracts and they have some algorithm in the backend that determines how highly the player values that contract and whoever offers the most intriguing mix of dollars and years gets the player. I've never actually done one, so it'll be an adventure.
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Jul 2, 2015 06:14
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Spoeank posted:I'm doing an NFL.com league for the first time and I've never seen such dog poo poo rankings NFL.com is poo poo for everything fantasy related, heeding this advice Will Help You.
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Jul 2, 2015 18:28
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Hope you bought low on Ladarius Green Adam SchefterVerified account @AdamSchefter And Chargers TE Antonio Gates suspended for first 4 games of NFL season.
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Jul 2, 2015 21:03
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And our first category. Here's the clue:  Who is #3 on this list? You may recognize this hype train from its earlier work, 2013's hit film Snowpiercer. Forget how that one ends but the train does great work.
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Jul 2, 2015 21:07
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Question though How do you undervalue 1.01
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Jul 2, 2015 21:23
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Its Miller Time posted:Counts on fingers...10 is also not divisible by 3.
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Jul 2, 2015 23:15
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If I'm remembering correctly Hill pretty much completely took over as the main RB and he is who you want out of that backfield.
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Jul 2, 2015 23:18
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It definitely shifted towards Hill towards the end of the year, but Gio still got touches & lots more targets. 
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Jul 2, 2015 23:50
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That 5.06 YPC stat would be a fun one to throw around if you were looking to sell high.
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Jul 2, 2015 23:59
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Gio's still going to be the 3rd down/passing back, but Hill completely established himself as the starter after Gio got hurt and looked great in everything but those two clunkers against TB and Pit. There'll be games where he gets 10-15 touches and rushes for 50 yards, but he's set for a pretty big year and would need a Doug Martin-esque drop-off in quality/production to be a real disappointment.
VDay fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Jul 3, 2015 |
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Jul 3, 2015 00:00
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VDay posted:Gio's still going to be the 3rd down/passing back, but Hill completely established himself as the starter after Gio got hurt and looked great in everything but those two clunkers against TB and Pit. There'll be games where he gets 10-15 touches and rushes for 50 yards, but he's set for a pretty big year and would need a Doug Martin-esque drop-off in quality/production to be a real disappointment. I hope he keeps it up. He looked really awesome running last year. Also had a great nose for the endzone, and a higher DVOA or success rate than Leveon. All signs point to "up". Once again, kudos again to FHP for bangin' that particular drum before the season even started last year.
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Jul 3, 2015 01:33
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Any new recommendations on podcasts?
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Jul 4, 2015 22:37
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Any new recommendations on podcasts? My goto list: The Audible, On the Couch from Footballguys Rummy and Ray Fantasy Feast with Evan Silva and Ross Tucker Rotoviz Radio DLF Dynasty Podcast 4for4 PFF Radio
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Jul 5, 2015 01:09
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Nah gently caress The Audible.
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Jul 5, 2015 02:49
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Does anyone actually pay for 4for4 or footballguys? I was thinking about it but a part of me feels like this thread is effectively the equivalent.
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Jul 5, 2015 03:56
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old dog child posted:Does anyone actually pay for 4for4 or footballguys? I was thinking about it but a part of me feels like this thread is effectively the equivalent. If anyone pays for FBG, they are dumb idiot stupidheads 
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Jul 5, 2015 06:26
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They did have the #1 and #2 2014 draft rankers according to fantasypros
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Jul 5, 2015 08:18
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:If anyone pays for FBG, they are dumb idiot stupidheads That's gotta be from last year. Honestly, that was the general opinion on most of those guys before the season started.
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Jul 5, 2015 08:23
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Its Miller Time posted:They did have the #1 and #2 2014 draft rankers according to fantasypros John Paulsen is apparently pretty good but I'm having issues finding anyone else from that grouping with a high rank there, and to be clear, the placement on those rankings is pretty irrelevant when you consider their hitrates are about 60% or so at the top and 58% at number 20. (I'm a PFF homer)
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Jul 5, 2015 08:25
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