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TheOneAndOnlyT posted:I know he's not running, but I'm really curious how Noted War Criminal and American Ronin Allen West's book sales compare to these. Well, he has no campaign to buy them, so... 
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Jul 7, 2015 20:14
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Thump! posted:He should do a google search of Pineland and maybe do 2 minutes of reading to realize just exactly what Green Beret training is and what exactly they do. Can't wait for a "Millenium Challenge" narrative to play out, then get debunked a decade later after the zeitgeist changed.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:18
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Yadoppsi posted:Household median is $45,016. Median for a single person is $32,140. At the time of that article's writing, household median income was $51,324. An individual was $42,693. So the infographic is still showing people earning 3.5-13 times what the average American is. Within the realm of 'you may know 1-2 people in this bracket', but still obviously highly deceptive when discussing tax rates.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:23
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I'm a bit late to the map discussion, but I want to say that it's silly to obsess over individual states while assuming the general situation stays the same as it is now. The Democrats are guaranteed to win the White House in 2016 if there's no economic or security problems, and no major scandals. But if something bad happens and it's Obama's fault, that's a factor outside Hillary Clinton's control that could give the Republicans a huge shift. In that scenario, the Republicans win Florida, they win Nevada, they win Wisconsin, they can go as far as winning Oregon. Instead of wasting time speculating on maps based on the current situation, the question is: How likely is it that something big enough to sway turnout significantly happens before the election?
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Jul 7, 2015 20:25
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Chamale posted:I'm a bit late to the map discussion, but I want to say that it's silly to obsess over individual states while assuming the general situation stays the same as it is now. The Democrats are guaranteed to win the White House in 2016 if there's no economic or security problems, and no major scandals. But if something bad happens and it's Obama's fault, that's a factor outside Hillary Clinton's control that could give the Republicans a huge shift. In that scenario, the Republicans win Florida, they win Nevada, they win Wisconsin, they can go as far as winning Oregon. Instead of wasting time speculating on maps based on the current situation, the question is: How likely is it that something big enough to sway turnout significantly happens before the election? You want someone to give you a forecast chance for a black swan event? Sure, it's .07%. That number is definitely based on things. Seriously though, that's a preposterous request. No one can give you that with anything remotely resembling accuracy.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:29
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I was on vacation up at Willoughby Lake in Vermont's NEK until late yesterday so apologies if I missed this in the 1000+ pages I skipped over to get caught up, but according to the ace reporters at Seven Day, there's been some suspicious activity taking place UVM's Baily Howe Library.Study Hall, Seven Days, 01-08 July 2015 Vol. 20 No. 43 posted:Librarians at the University of Vermont's special collections say interest has spiked in the "Bernard Sanders papers" -- 30 boxes of meticulously organized material documenting Sanders' eight years as mayor of Burlington. That should come as no surprise, give the independent senator's rise in the polls in New Hampshire and Iowa, which hold the nation's first presidential nominating contests. 
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Jul 7, 2015 20:32
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From what I know of past presidential elections, we'll more or less know the eventual winner around June-August 2016. At that point, votes are pretty much locked in barring the mythical October Surprise.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:35
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As others have pointed out in the past, whoever wins the popular vote is probably going to win the election. I mean, you want to talk about needing a six-point swing - well, a six-point swing from the 2012 popular vote puts you at like R 51 / D 48. That's basically just a solid Republican victory. So I find it difficult to believe that the map particularly matters either way. If the popular vote goes against the Democrats, the states that need to be in play for a Republican victory will be in play. I think the map does give Democrats a marginal advantage in situations where the popular vote ends up extremely close. And that's meaningful, but it's not the same as a structural problem for Republicans generally.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:38
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Litany Unheard posted:At that point, votes are pretty much locked in barring the mythical October Surprise. October Surprise: Hillary murdered Vince Foster.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:39
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fool_of_sound posted:Presumably it's actually for an endorsement though (for whatever that's worth)? I can't imagine anyone actually want's Romney's advise on campaigning. quote:“The one thing that helps more than anything else is having done it before,” the source said. “Mitt knows better than anybody what it’s like to win and to lose the nomination. They all trust him. It’s very unusual to have somebody of his ilk you can call on. We didn’t have an ally of that stature to help us, particularly in the summer of ‘12.” YMMV
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Jul 7, 2015 20:39
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CNN Clinton interview is on at 5 ET and then repeated at 8 ET
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Jul 7, 2015 20:40
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Shageletic posted:YMMV Well, that quote looks it's coming from the Romney camp, so yes, I'm sure that's what Romney would like everyone to think.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:43
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Relentlessboredomm posted:You want someone to give you a forecast chance for a black swan event? Sure, it's .07%. That number is definitely based on things. But it's also the only thing that really could sway this election. Here's a list of possible black swan events that could give the election to the Republicans: - Big Obama scandal - Big Hillary scandal - Economy goes into recession - Economic meltdown - Major terrorist attack - Iran gets a nuke - Hillary dies I think talking about whether events like that could sway the election would have more predictive power than poring over possible maps.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:45
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Shageletic posted:YMMV To be fair, Romney is a pretty good example of what not to do in an election. I'm sure the Republican candidates can learn a lot from his failures.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:48
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Chamale posted:But it's also the only thing that really could sway this election. Here's a list of possible black swan events that could give the election to the Republicans: In order to have predictive power, you need something you can predict. We can predict an R 50 - D 49 popular vote, and based on history and trends figure out what that likely means the electoral map looks like. There is very minimal data on the chances of Hillary Clinton dying, and the only thing we can ensure in that case is "Well, there's a 0% chance of Hillary winning".
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Jul 7, 2015 20:51
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Chamale posted:But it's also the only thing that really could sway this election. Here's a list of possible black swan events that could give the election to the Republicans: I can guarantee you that if an event occurs that causes Hillary to lose the election, she will lose the election.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:54
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Great White Hope posted:
Dead people have won elections before! Never underestimate Hillary's desire for the presidency. It shall transcend even death.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:54
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Shear Modulus posted:I can guarantee you that if an event occurs that causes Hillary to lose the election, she will lose the election. seems unlikely, IMO Litany Unheard posted:Dead people have won elections before! Never underestimate Hillary's desire for the presidency. It shall transcend even death. Skeleton Hillary 2016
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Jul 7, 2015 20:55
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Is it possible for a dead person to be president.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:57
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fronz posted:Is it possible for a dead person to be president. Only if you cannot find and destroy their phylactery before they take the oath before Congress. Then it's fair game.
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Jul 7, 2015 20:59
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Oh my god he has got an AXE RUNNNNNN
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Jul 7, 2015 21:11
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Supraluminal posted:The fact that this is a real thing that more than a handful of lunatic crazy whackadoos are worried about is completely insane. God, please let Texas secede already. I'm not sure what scares me more. How quickly the 2000 election and 9/11 showed conspiracy theory as something that significant, double-digit portions of the population could strongly believe in, or just how little overlap there is between that significant portion and the similar number that went nuts when Obama was elected.
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Jul 7, 2015 21:15
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Oh my god he has got an AXE RUNNNNNN I'm the giant version of a certificate a child would print and sign for an online training program.
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Jul 7, 2015 21:21
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Wasn't there a photo of Rick Perry with that same axe, or something very similar?
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Jul 7, 2015 21:24
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Monkey Fracas posted:Only if you cannot find and destroy their phylactery before they take the oath before Congress. Then it's fair game. This is also how Strom Thurmond remained in office for so long.
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Jul 7, 2015 21:27
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Oh my god he has got an AXE RUNNNNNN
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Jul 7, 2015 21:31
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fronz posted:Is it possible for a dead person to be president. Wheres the death certificate, Obama?
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Jul 7, 2015 21:31
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Killer robot posted:I'm not sure what scares me more. How quickly the 2000 election and 9/11 showed conspiracy theory as something that significant, double-digit portions of the population could strongly believe in Were you not aware of the 90s? One of the most popular TV shows of that decade had the tagline "I want to believe".
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Jul 7, 2015 21:36
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Hillary's first open interview airs in 20 minutes on CNN. If someone can post highlights it would be appreciated. There's no limits on subjects, it's an hour long, and her first major interview, so we may finally get some actual major policy positions. Also, in a weird twist, one of the positions Hillary has released a detailed plan for is a Puerto Rican bankruptcy plan. It includes a law allowing chapter 9 bankruptcy and higher medicare reimbursement rates for the island. She is currently the only candidate with a detailed plan for Puerto Rico, but still has not come out with concrete policies for other major issues. She still doesn't have an issue page on her website (yeah yeah, it's 15 months out, but if you declare your candidacy you should have an issues page within a month).
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Jul 7, 2015 21:39
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Thank you Ted Cruz, Your Simpsons impressions were so bad you got Harry to return http://www.ew.com/article/2015/05/15/harry-shearer-simpsons-returns 
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Jul 7, 2015 21:42
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I know it's a big thing that donald trump apparently says 'yooge' instead of 'huge' but I've never actually heard him say it and couldn't find it on youtube. Can anyone help me out?
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Jul 7, 2015 21:46
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Joementum posted:By the way, this is the first time I can remember when I haven't personally seen Bernie in a 4th of July parade. I know this is from like a million pages ago, but by any chance do you typically go to the parade in Bristol?
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Jul 7, 2015 21:55
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redreader posted:I know it's a big thing that donald trump apparently says 'yooge' instead of 'huge' but I've never actually heard him say it and couldn't find it on youtube. Can anyone help me out? No, it's Bernie Sanders that says "yooge".
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Jul 7, 2015 21:57
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Hillary's first open interview airs in 20 minutes on CNN. If someone can post highlights it would be appreciated. There's no limits on subjects, it's an hour long, and her first major interview, so we may finally get some actual major policy positions. Just a lot of talk about e-mails so far.
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Jul 7, 2015 22:11
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And economic policies will be laid out on Monday
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Jul 7, 2015 22:14
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"Very disappointed in Trump and Republican Party for not telling trump to stop it" "Republicans have hostility toward immigrants"
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Jul 7, 2015 22:16
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Brannock posted:That doesn't make that WSJ cartoon not hilarious though, because at the point you're pulling in 6 figures, an extra few thousand dollars in taxes is more than easily dealt with. I've got a thirty year mortgage. If I need to get (very) minor surgery or buy a used car because the old one exploded that's me tightening my belt for a year and hoping nothing else goes wrong. The same level of attention to detail would get the least of those poor overtaxed dears MY HOUSE. By the time I've paid off my mortgage I'll probably have grandchildren. Several of my friends will have died of old age. My dick probably won't work anymore. The working mother could make my mortgage go away in the time it'll take one of her kids to make it from 2nd to 3rd grade. She'd get to have life in the space where I get to have three decades of bills. The fact that there exist people in this world who can buy and sell entire industries or who can threaten governments by pulling out their chequebooks doesn't make the wealth disparity between me and her any less vast. I don't think there's anything wrong with being rich, I just bristle at the thought that anyone making that many multiples of the average american wage deserves sympathy for their money woes. For their life, yes, absolutely. But not their money. Caveat: Someone that's gotten themselves into a high-debt lifestyle while maintaining a high wage who suddenly gets hit with a massive medical expense gets my sympathy, because that's lose-lose. They'll still recover far faster than a poorer person if the medical issue doesn't kill them, though. If an average earner has to deal with cancer for a year that's basically it for financial independence, even with insurance.
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Jul 7, 2015 22:22
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redreader posted:I know it's a big thing that donald trump apparently says 'yooge' instead of 'huge' but I've never actually heard him say it and couldn't find it on youtube. Can anyone help me out? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7UcQcD9INI#t=3m28s Swim through the rest of that video's narration to see him tackle Vince McMahon.
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Jul 7, 2015 22:23
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Thank you Ted Cruz, Joementum posted:Quote of the day, "It appears Harry Shearer was so horrified by my Simpsons impressions he agreed to return." ~ Ted Cruz.
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Jul 7, 2015 22:26
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If Ted Cruz can make The Simpsons great again, he has my vote.
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Jul 7, 2015 22:30
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