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Trabisnikof posted:This brings up a good point: How's the endorsement race going on both sides? Hillary is blasting it out of the park at an unprecedented rate. She's ahead of where Gore was in 2000 and cruising to sitting-President levels. I think Jeb! is ahead in the Republican side.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:43
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Aliquid posted:All I'm saying is that a Clinton/Bush match-up increases the chance of third-party participation. Do you think if it were Clinton/Walker or Clinton/Rubio we would see more or less third-party turnout? Sheng-ji Yang posted:If the candidates are Bush and Clinton I could see an unusually strong year for the third parties akin to 2000 or so. Both have strong detractors in the far wings of their party and are particularly uninspiring. I think in order to have a strong year for third parties, those third parties also need to have some kind of charisma, a message that appeals to the American people and the financial backing to get that message out there. In those respects, Perot and Nader were outliers. Outside of Trump going rogue or Bernie going back on his word, I'm not seeing any of this in any of the current third-parties or the candidates they're running. IMO bad mainstream candidates are more likely to just depress voter turnout than they are to create a vacuum for non-mainstream challengers.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:43
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:lol what the gently caress are the republicans going to do about this. he is a terrible beast who feeds on scandals that would normally crush any candidate. im not sure its possible for him to flame out The man is literally unfact-checkable, the winner of any republican debate that features him is going to be the one that ignores him the most.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:44
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JT Jag posted:A small part of me is vaguely suspicious that the entire Trump campaign is a false flag orchestrated by the Democratic Party to gently caress over the Republicans. It's just too perfect. It helps Jeb! though. Why would we want their most electable candidate and not someone like Ted?
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Jul 9, 2015 21:44
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:actualyl let me re-calibrate: Are those questions people aren't allowed to ask? JT Jag posted:It really isn't. Yes it is. I'm going to call out anyone who treats the media as this massive monolithic entity that shits out fake controversy. That is a very bad depiction of what I read everyday. It's disrespectful to the few groups that hold themselves accountable. The only two news agencies that have been mentioned here, specifically, were Drudge and Fox News. How many people even read their news? What % of the entire US population gets up every morning, reads those two news agencies, and then agrees with everything they say unironically? I want the narrative the of "stop being mean to my very rich, very well connected, and very quiet candidate  " to stop tia.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:46
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Job Truniht posted:Are those questions people aren't allowed to ask? Are they not stupid as gently caress questions to be asked and would you not get at least a little offended for being asked them for 20 years?
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Jul 9, 2015 21:47
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moneyshot
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Jul 9, 2015 21:48
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:It helps Jeb! though. Why would we want their most electable candidate and not someone like Ted? it helps jeb in the primary but im not sure making republicans look like complete and total racist buffoons will exactly help them in any general election. i mean, i wonder how many young hispanic people he's managed to already turn away from the republican party for life
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Jul 9, 2015 21:48
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I have a question about Trump and Federal Election laws. Instead of filing the required financial disclosures, could Trump file suit and get an injunction by claiming that the financial disclosure rules are unreasonably onerous or even unconstitutional in light of recent SC rulings? Just refuse to even file financial disclosures and then let the suit wind it's way through the Federal Courts while he remains in the race, creating havoc and destruction and racking up primary wins?
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Jul 9, 2015 21:49
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Aliquid posted:moneyshot just lmao
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Jul 9, 2015 21:49
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Honestly, I think Sanders would do worse than Hillary would in the general. Elections nowadays are won on enthusiasm/GotV, not on ideological persuasion. Sanders actually hurts GotV: He has intense supporters, but they're mostly people who are very politically engaged and would be voting anyway. For the broader base, I doubt that "cast a ballot for this old guy with decent policy positions" motivates D voters as much as "get out and vote so this ADMITTED SOCIALIST doesn't send give YOUR COUNTRY to lazy, unemployed
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Jul 9, 2015 21:51
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Are they not stupid as gently caress questions to be asked and would you not get at least a little offended for being asked them for 20 years? It suits my core ideology that candidates shouldn't censor themselves just fine.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:51
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In other news, the FAA has dropped Trump.quote:Three navigation coordination points above Palm Beach International Airport that had been named in honor of Donald J. Trump will be renamed, the Federal Aviation Administration said Wednesday.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:52
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Job Truniht posted:Are those questions people aren't allowed to ask? Those are really loving dumb questions to ask. Those are literally also headlines that could have been on WSJ, WaPo or hell the NYT. (Also, FoxNews is the most watched news network in the US by a considerable margin and their watchers do, by large percentage agree with them; and drudge still, somehow, has an incredibly strong pull on the media.) The mainstream media, hate to tell you this, shits out fake controversy on the regular. The narrative, by the way, is that "Hillary is overly cautious with news media because she's spent twenty years dealing with, frankly, a lot of unfair coverage. The downside is that reports are like hyenas or worse and get really pissy when they don't get what they want. and they both feed the cycle." Like I am guessing you don't read a lot of campaign wonk, wherein WaPo and Bloomberg and NYT whined about not being able to talk to Hillary every three seconds? And IT WAS HER JOB TO MAKE THEIR JOB EASIER.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:52
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Squizzle posted:Honestly, I think Sanders would do worse than Hillary would in the general. Elections nowadays are won on enthusiasm/GotV, not on ideological persuasion. Sanders actually hurts GotV: He has intense supporters, but they're mostly people who are very politically engaged and would be voting anyway. Yeah but democrats have 240 of 270 electoral votes pretty much on lock.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:52
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Squizzle posted:Honestly, I think Sanders would do worse than Hillary would in the general. Elections nowadays are won on enthusiasm/GotV, not on ideological persuasion. Sanders actually hurts GotV: He has intense supporters, but they're mostly people who are very politically engaged and would be voting anyway. I think you are underestimating the appeal of "lets get those wall street fuckers." There's a reason why it's called populism.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:53
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Hillary... made us... she made us... she made us walk a rope line! She's such a mean, evil bitch. ~ NYT
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Jul 9, 2015 21:54
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:I think you are underestimating the appeal of "lets get those wall street fuckers." There's a reason why it's called populism. Until the other side bands together a coalition of rich industrialists, successful independent northern farmers and artisans and kicks your butt for a generation
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Jul 9, 2015 21:55
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Job Truniht posted:It suits my core ideology that candidates shouldn't censor themselves just fine. I don't think anyone is saying the press shouldn't be able to ask those questions, just pointing out that the media have been and will be unnecessarily assholish to her.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:55
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Yeah but democrats have 240 of 270 electoral votes pretty much on lock. I wouldn't got hat far. Raskolnikov38 posted:I don't think anyone is saying the press shouldn't be able to ask those questions, just pointing out that the media have been and will be unnecessarily assholish to her. I don't think they should ask stupid, non-relevant questions. But yeah, that was my whole point. The media has been really dickish to her over the years for stupid reasons and its made her be very careful around them. The side-effect to that, is it only feeds their dislike for her. Look at John McCain, there's a whole thesis in how his candidacy was kept afloat in '08 because members of the media really liked him and liked how much access he gave them on the bus.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:55
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Yeah but democrats have 240 of 270 electoral votes pretty much on lock. I know people who would rather stay home than vote for Hillary in the general election
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Jul 9, 2015 21:57
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Yeah but democrats have 240 of 270 electoral votes pretty much on lock. That doesn't mean poo poo. They still need 270.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:58
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Aliquid posted:moneyshot yes... Yes!!  Trump winning the primary would simultaneously be the most hilarious and terrifying thing ever. Better get that paperwork in soon Don!
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Jul 9, 2015 21:58
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EugeneJ posted:I know people who would rather stay home than vote for Hillary in the general election Wow! That's not what polls say, though.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:58
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Bob Ojeda posted:That doesn't mean poo poo. They still need 270. Gaining 30 is a whole hell of a lot easier than the 120+ plus the republicans need to.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:59
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Aliquid posted:Wow! That's not what polls say, though. Bernie supporters in general hate Hillary. That is a lot of Democrats. You're underestimating how loathed she is.
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Jul 9, 2015 21:59
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EugeneJ posted:Bernie supporters in general hate Hillary.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:02
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Nessus posted:Obama was also pretty widely loathed and yet here we are. I would not say these people do not exist, but I would question if they are not already baked into things or how decisive a demographic they are. It would be interesting if the Bernie supporters collectively started a "Bernie or no one" campaign - threatening to not vote Dem if Bernie loses the primary. I wonder if the Democratic brass would abandon Hillary in that case.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:04
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EugeneJ posted:Bernie supporters in general hate Hillary. You're overestimating his support. EugeneJ posted:It would be interesting if the Bernie supporters collectively started a "Bernie or no one" campaign - threatening to not vote Dem if Bernie loses the primary. I wonder if the Democratic brass would abandon Hillary in that case. No.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:06
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EugeneJ posted:It would be interesting if the Bernie supporters collectively started a "Bernie or no one" campaign - threatening to not vote Dem if Bernie loses the primary. I wonder if the Democratic brass would abandon Hillary in that case. No, because they know that they would fall in line come November when faced with Scott Walker or *snicker* Donald Trump.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:06
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The best part about this election is that people like TheDisreputableDog actually exist and rage like feral animals as the election progresses. Never mind that the GOP tired itself out on trying to burn her reputation down before Obama was even elected, so at this point they're hung up on Benghazi and emails about fax machines like they're the smokiest guns that ever smoked. They're so loving mad about everything that they're putting Donald loving Trump on a pedestal at this point just because he's a combative blowhard. He's hitting all the underdog notes with his business relationships imploding so I expect him to keep that lead for a while, just mangling the GOP's reputation with literally everyone except old honkeys and maybe after Bush and his daddy's cabinet get the nomination he'll split the shitter vote by running third party. You think tears were in supply in 2012? They've spent almost 30 years trying to burn Hillary and when they fail again, the dams will burst in earnest.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:06
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EugeneJ posted:Bernie supporters in general hate Hillary I don't think this is accurate. I've yet to meet a Bernie supporter in real life who wouldn't vote for Hillary in the general election. There are diehards but they are a minority.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:06
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EugeneJ posted:It would be interesting if the Bernie supporters collectively started a "Bernie or no one" campaign - threatening to not vote Dem if Bernie loses the primary. I wonder if the Democratic brass would abandon Hillary in that case.  Not a chance.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:06
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EugeneJ posted:It would be interesting if the Bernie supporters collectively started a "Bernie or no one" campaign - threatening to not vote Dem if Bernie loses the primary. I wonder if the Democratic brass would abandon Hillary in that case. See, floating these kind of off-the-wall fantasy hostage scenarios is part of why people don't take Bernie supporters seriously.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:06
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EugeneJ posted:I know people who would rather stay home than vote for Hillary in the general election My dad is like that, he's very centrist and would theoretically like Hillary but dislikes her as a person. He wants to vote for a "moderate Republican" but after he brought up some names and I explained their actual policies he just kind of resigned himself to accepting that moderate Republicans don't exist, so I'm guess he just won't vote this go around.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:07
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Sir Tonk posted:http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/247383-trump-leads-gop-presidential-field-in-new-national-poll This poll from the previous page has Perry and Fiorina tied in a death match for 10th place; the cutoff for next month's first debate. I really hope Perry is left out of every debate and has to drag his sorry rear end back here to Texas a beaten and forgotten husk of a man. radical meme fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Jul 9, 2015 |
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Jul 9, 2015 22:11
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:I think you are underestimating the appeal of "lets get those wall street fuckers." There's a reason why it's called populism. I think you're underestimating the power of narrative. If Sanders ran, it would be socialism versus American communities. They'd take a page out of the Rove textbook and run just as populist in messaging as Sanders while turning his populism and wonkiness against him. Almost any GOP candidate beats Sanders in the Beer Test, especially once a tracker catches Sanders getting emotional (doesn't matter which emotion or about what, just need the clip for the ads). Oh and of course, the negative ads will come from 3rd parties, so no linking it back to the candidate. Meanwhile the GOP candidate will just try and run as Obama but with a Small Biz/Personal Freedom/FAMILYFAMILYFAMILY tinge. Jeb would crush Sanders and Sanders doesn't even need to get in a tank.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:12
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Aliquid posted:moneyshot No way, I almost feel bad for them.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:12
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Hillary is absolutely going to adopt a lot of Bernie's policies because she is very pragmatic and, though she is heavily supported by the banking industry as the front runner, will say enough good Bernie type things to get a lot of additional support when Bernie tells everyone to go vote for her after he loses.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:13
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EugeneJ posted:Bernie supporters in general hate Hillary. According to PPP polling, Bernie supporters have a 60%/33%/7% favorable/unfavorable/undecided opinion of Hillary. Hillary supporters have a 37%/25%/38% opinion of Bernie. Overall with democrats she's 77%/18%/5% while Bernie is 43%/22%/35%. The idea that it would be Bernie supporters would who revolt against Hillary, rather than the other way around, doesn't really hold up.
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Jul 9, 2015 22:13
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