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De Nomolos posted:He's committing suicide. Insightful.
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Jul 12, 2015 15:43
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A balanced budget amendment, at the most basic "budgeted expenditures must be less than projected income", would be hilariously terrible. Like, holy poo poo guys, I can't really convey how terrible an idea it is. Like, the entire economic system of the entire Western world would go through a fundamental transformation. The Great Depression without the New Deal, every decade or so, because that's what happened before. So, no, I don't really think a more explicit definition of "General Welfare" would be worth that.
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Jul 12, 2015 15:43
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Serious question--if by some bizarre twist of fate Trump wins more delegates than everyone else, could the RNC refuse to acknowledge him as the nominee at the convention?
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Jul 12, 2015 15:51
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Alter Ego posted:Serious question--if by some bizarre twist of fate Trump wins more delegates than everyone else, could the RNC refuse to acknowledge him as the nominee at the convention? Aside from the fact that they're hosed no matter what at that point, the RNC isn't legally required to use the primaries to determine it's candidate. Of course if Trump has the delegates he's also got the votes to probably keep the RNC from not going with him as the candidate.
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Jul 12, 2015 15:58
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Could someone explain the brokered convention and the scenarios that would necessitate one?
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Jul 12, 2015 16:03
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Alter Ego posted:Serious question--if by some bizarre twist of fate Trump wins more delegates than everyone else, could the RNC refuse to acknowledge him as the nominee at the convention? The credentialing committee at the convention, which is typically controlled by party insiders, could refuse to seat his delegates. This used to happen all the time prior to the '72 primary reforms, especially with the southern state Republican delegations, many of whom weren't even from the states they purported to represent because the Republican Party effectively didn't exist in the South until the 60s. The last big credentials fight was the '76 RNC, which is well recounted in The Invisible Bridge, or you can listen to a good summary of the action on John Dickerson's excellent podcast. There was a minor credentials crisis over the Michigan and Florida delegations to the DNC in 2008, which under the rules shouldn't have existed, but were allowed in after Obama's delegate count surpassed Hillary's even with their inclusion. There was also the case of the Ron Paul Maine delegation to the 2012 RNC, which was debatably the legitimate delegation from the Maine convention, depending on who you believe and the weather reports. They protested their ouster by credentials chairman John Sununu by "holding their noses" with lobster clothespins. 
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Jul 12, 2015 16:05
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I don't think those folks understood what "holding your nose means" because the placement of those pins would be terribly uneffective(sic).
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Jul 12, 2015 16:08
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Titus Sardonicus posted:Could someone explain the brokered convention and the scenarios that would necessitate one? There's no such thing as a brokered convention any more because there are no brokers. It used to be the case that the chairman of each state delegation could speak for the entire delegation, which would vote "as a unit", and the state chairman was usually a patron of the various delegates in the party machine and/or local business/union, but those days are long gone. And, frankly, they never really existed. The big convention fights, like the 1920 RNC or the 1952 RNC were fought on the floor. You could make the case for the 1968 DNC as a brokered convention, I suppose, or as a complete clusterfuck. Now, there technically could still be a deadlocked convention, but this is extremely unlikely. Under the RNC rules (and we'll deal with those as the DNC's super delegates make a deadlocked convention astronomically unlikely) nearly all of the delegates arrive at the convention pledged to vote for a candidate on the first ballot. If no candidate receives a majority of the delegate votes, the delegates are no longer pledged and may vote for any candidate. Also, at this time, people can nominate additional candidates and can give nominating speeches in support of their candidate. Then the convention goes into multiple rounds of balloting until such time as a candidate receives the majority of the votes. I'll again recommend John Dickerson's Whistlestop podcast as he has covered many of the convention fights of the 20th century in an easy-to-digest fashion.
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Jul 12, 2015 16:12
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And this is why even if Trump got 40% of the delegates in crazy universe, the remaining 60% of the delegates would, after the first ballot, unite behind an establishment candidate like Jeb!.
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Jul 12, 2015 16:31
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Ego-bot posted:I guess they never heard of Bernie Sanders. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/07/11/teachers-union-endorses-hillary-clinton-in-democratic-race/ quote:
So they interviewed Sanders and had all candidates fill out a detailed questionnaire as well as do a recorded interview which was then released internally to union members. If we have any teacher's union members on the forum they could maybe post the videos? Or summarize them? People referencing the videos have been saying that they really liked Hillary's emphasis on listening to teachers and working together to solve educational problems while o'malley and sanders came off as more top down "this is what I would do". If I had to venture a guess as to why Hillary won I would probably say it's due to the fact that in her public and her private life she is way more involved with educational issues than Bernie and thus has better qualifications to address their problems. Both Hillary and Bernie take the right positions on teacher's issues. But Hillary goes further and makes issues out of those positions. She dives into the details while Bernie has faith that if you implement his economic plans everything else just magically will sort itself out and as a result skims over the details of what he considers to be distracting side issues. I mean let's be serious here. Hillary founded and works with a charity that has funded hundreds of schools world-wide. She has first hand experience working with challenges of providing education to students in poverty and regularly does fundraiser speaking engagements for educational groups where they can charge admission but don't have to pay her. Bernie offers votes and sound bytes. Hillary throws in money, time, and passion on top of that. Also, schools are a place where Bernie's desire to kick certain cans down the road really isn't acceptable. Teachers have been very vocal on the topic that there are external factors they can't compensate for in response to Waiting for Superman style propaganda insisting that academic success rests entirely on the teacher's shoulders and that if we just fire all the "bad" teachers and only hire "good" teachers everything will be awesome. Teen pregnancy, for example, is devastating to the academic prospects of the mother and often the father ( http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/3436411/ - teen dads are at high risk for dropping out. Religious teen dads who marry the teen mom have a 62% drop out rate ). But Bernie omitted reproductive issues from his platform and in various speeches has stated that reproductive issues are a distraction. He has called on people with disagreements there to put them to the side for now and come together on the more important economic issues at hand. Bernie posted:
His educational platform is heavily centered around college tuition assistance and he "me too"s Clinton's efforts on universal pre-k programs to help working mothers. Clinton, otoh, understands that no amount of college funding helps if a teen pregnancy kicks a kid out of college before (s)he completes high school. She has seen first hand in Africa how beneficial contraceptive access is to keeping teens ( dads too! ) in school. This intersects with class because low income students have the least access to contraception contributing to their high high school drop out rates. Another issue is racism in school funding. As the forums has noted many times, we essentially have two k-12 school systems in America. The one for white kids is doing extremely well. The one for minority kids is poo poo. Bernie's allergy to tackling racial issues cripples his ability to address this problem while Clinton faces these issues head on. Bernie didn't win this endorsement because he demonstrably doesn't deserve to.
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Jul 12, 2015 16:32
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I forgot to mention that if a candidate drops out, their delegates are no longer pledged.
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Jul 12, 2015 16:34
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Logikv9 posted:We're laughing at Donald now, but when he wins and Americans are all enslaved to work the Trump Casino floor and pander to rich Chinese tourists for eternity, we will wonder what went wrong. Good thing I've been working out, those cocktail waitress uniforms don't leave much to the imagination
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Jul 12, 2015 16:40
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Has anyone done "Some people just want to watch the world Bern" yet?
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Jul 12, 2015 16:45
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C2C - 2.0 posted:I don't think those folks understood what "holding your nose means" because the placement of those pins would be terribly uneffective(sic). This is basically a perfect representation of what was going on: making lots of noise, acting angry, and making it look like you are doing something (holding your nose), while not doing anything that actually involves discomfort or inconvenience to yourself (like literally holding your nose).
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Jul 12, 2015 16:49
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The Saddest Campaign gets some pity from the Bernmentum juggernaut.
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Jul 12, 2015 16:51
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PupsOfWar posted:That depends on what you mean by ideology. Trump is a member of that same patrician class, whose specialty is making money off of low information consumers. He's just a new version of the same approach.
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Jul 12, 2015 16:56
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GalacticAcid posted:The Saddest Campaign gets some pity from the Bernmentum juggernaut. Is that...Is that Comic Sans??? 
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Jul 12, 2015 17:01
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A Neurotic Jew posted:Is that...Is that Comic Sans??? No, it's something else with a similar look- it's less centered.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:05
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McAlister posted:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/07/11/teachers-union-endorses-hillary-clinton-in-democratic-race/ Thank you, this is very informative. Is this telling about Sanders` politics generally? Do people get the impression that he just doesn't have a systemic understanding of many of the underlying issues he's talking about, aside from having the correct views on many of them?
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Jul 12, 2015 17:05
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A Neurotic Jew posted:Is that...Is that Comic Sans??? Looks like some other comic book font that isn't quite as hosed up as Comic Sans.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:07
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McAlister posted:Teen pregnancy, for example, is devastating to the academic prospects of the mother and often the father ( http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/3436411/ - teen dads are at high risk for dropping out. Religious teen dads who marry the teen mom have a 62% drop out rate ). But Bernie omitted reproductive issues from his platform and in various speeches has stated that reproductive issues are a distraction. He has called on people with disagreements there to put them to the side for now and come together on the more important economic issues at hand. That's totally not a disingenuous argument at all. Let's do some basic fact checking: HHS posted:Teen birth rates differ substantially by age, racial and ethnic group, and region of the country. Most adolescents who give birth are 18 or older; in 2013, 73 percent of all teen births occurred to 18- to 19-year-olds.  When you factor in the two arguments, the amount of females who have been to high school and got pregnant is non-existent. You're forcing an issue out of something that isn't. High school diplomas are worth less than garbage now. Even if you had perfect graduation rates, the need for kids to spend even more years in college because high schools are so far behind on academic growth is becoming a lot more common. You can't tackle any of your socioeconomic problems without addressing higher education. Absurd Alhazred posted:Thank you, this is very informative. Teen pregnancy is a mostly a state issue and has a lot to do with a particular state's attitude towards abstinence. There's no real concurrent federal policy about it, because our entire education system is heavily decentralized and quality of education can vary wildly by state to state. Job Truniht fucked around with this message at 17:11 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 17:08
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I think people also get the impression from Sanders, is that he's not cosmopolitan enough, rather than any major issues with his opinions about US policy, which is also an area they feel a guy like Sanders cannot gain ground in, but Clinton could because the relationships she forged in Congress are more powerful. I don't really agree with all of that, but that's the impression I get from Hillary supporters like McAlister.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:09
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Job Truniht posted:When you factor in the two arguments, the amount of females who have been to high school and got pregnant is non-existent. You're forcing an issue out of something that isn't. "Teen pregnancy is not an issue"-someone who's never been to high school. Also, it's a little difficult to get into higher education if you don't have a high school diploma. You have no loving idea what you're talking about.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:13
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http://www.isthmus.com/news/opinion/after-scott-walker-loses/"[s posted:Mayor[/s] Citizen Dave"]After Scott Walker loses, then what? Watch for the number of articles like this to increase as the primary approaches and Walker's campaigning begins in earnest.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:13
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Acebuckeye13 posted:"Teen pregnancy is not an issue"-someone who's never been to high school. As a high school dropout who went straight to a four-year, there are actually excellent, cheap, flexible systems in place, like the Junior College system, to allow matriculation into a 4 year. And you can smoke. You don't even need to go to a Junior College if you plan your HS classes carefully enough to meet pre-reqs. It's not a cake walk, but there are a lot of systems and routes in place for HS dropouts to go to college. It's very possible, I've done it, I've seen people in very adverse circumstances do it without life-shattering difficulty. Kids, full time job, etc., make it much harder, but at the end of the day, politicians want their stats, and implementing yet another pipeline to college is an easy one to juke.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:21
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Lindsey fires the first shot post-Trump AZ speech.quote:“I think he’s uninformed,” Graham said. “I think he’s a wrecking ball for the future of the Republican Party in the Hispanic community, and I think we need to push back.”
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Jul 12, 2015 17:21
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Acebuckeye13 posted:"Teen pregnancy is not an issue"-someone who's never been to high school. Let's do some very basic math. 77% of those happened at the ages of 18-19 respectively, what % of those females were still in high school? If you factor those in, you're still talking roughly <3% of the sample size. If you factor those out, you get 8.745 per 1000 females, that's less than 0.008745% of the sample size population. Again, teen pregnancy rates can vary wildly from state to state based on that state's policy towards abstinence. They are also prevalent in states with high income inequality. Lastly, it's already against the law for schools to discriminate against pregnant women due to Title IX. Teen birth rates have been in a decline, consistently, for 20 years. I'm not sure what else you're asking for. But then the previous poster compared the United States to Africa on teen pregnancy so I expect someone to be at least somewhat disingenuous. Job Truniht fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 17:27
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Thank you, this is very informative. Sanders has always focused very heavily on economic issues and the bullshit the financial sector is up to. I think he doesn't focus on race because he just cares a lot about economic inequality in general. I figure he's one of those ones of the opinion of "we should just ignore race and help anybody that's underprivileged as much as they need." His thing is focusing on classism rather than racism far as I can tell. Really in some ways he has a point; a lot of the problems we face are tied up in the super rich loving over everybody else. If you can put a stop to that things would improve in general. Now the issue is that the institutional racism would very likely still be there so most of the recovery would end up going to white people anyway.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:29
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If you'd told me Lindsay Graham would be the voice of reason...
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Jul 12, 2015 17:31
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Yeah, I graduated high school (in a heavily Latino area) about five years ago or so, and everything McAlister is saying about teen pregnancy seems dead on to me. I find her posts informative, as well.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:33
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ToxicSlurpee posted:Sanders has always focused very heavily on economic issues and the bullshit the financial sector is up to. I think he doesn't focus on race because he just cares a lot about economic inequality in general. I figure he's one of those ones of the opinion of "we should just ignore race and help anybody that's underprivileged as much as they need." His thing is focusing on classism rather than racism far as I can tell. Sanders was present at MLK's March on Washington, as a SNCC organizer. He hasn't ignored racism.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:34
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Thank you, this is very informative.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:36
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Job Truniht posted:Let's do some very basic math. 77% of those happened at the ages of 18-19 respectively, what % of those females were still in high school? If you factor those in, you're still talking roughly <3% of the sample size. If you factor those out, you get 8.745 per 1000 females, that's less than 0.008745% of the sample size population. Again, teen pregnancy rates can vary wildly from state to state based on that state's policy towards abstinence. They are also prevalent in states with high income inequality. For doing some very basic math you still managed to gently caress it up
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Jul 12, 2015 17:37
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Sanders was present at MLK's March on Washington, as a SNCC organizer. He hasn't ignored racism. Oh I know he hasn't completely ignored it but economic things seem to be by and far his largest priority.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:37
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Mecca-Benghazi posted:Yeah, I graduated high school (in a heavily Latino area) about five years ago or so, and everything McAlister is saying about teen pregnancy seems dead on to me. I find her posts informative, as well. It is a big country. The advantage of Hillary's big budget approach is not wasting energy 'preaching to the choir' but zeroing in on niche issue votes in key districts/states. Bernie and Trump campaigns suggest the preacher and the choir might not be reading the same hymnal.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:44
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Job Truniht posted:Let's do some very basic math. 77% of those happened at the ages of 18-19 respectively, what % of those females were still in high school? Very very conservatively, 33%.
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Jul 12, 2015 17:44
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ohgodwhat posted:For doing some very basic math you still managed to gently caress it up Yeah, no. The probability that a woman is pregnant under the age of 18 out of a population of 1000 females is nonexistent. CDC has numbers of about 12.3 per 1000 for this age range (Table A). You run into even more problems when you start trying to factor in minimum leaving age by state. Job Truniht fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 17:54
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You know teens don't get kicked out of high school when they turn 18 right?
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Jul 12, 2015 17:58
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Job Truniht posted:Yeah, no. The probability that a woman is pregnant under the age of 18 out of a population of 1000 females is nonexistent. CDC has numbers of about 12.3 per 1000 for this age range (Table A). You run into even more problems when you start trying to factor in minimum leaving age by state. 12.3 per 1000 is 1.23%. That isn't non-existent. And you keep confusing 'being pregnant' with giving birth. I'm not sure if you took health class or not, but there's this whole period of time before giving birth that is 'pregnant'.
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Jul 12, 2015 18:19
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Job Truniht posted:Yeah, no. The probability that a woman is pregnant under the age of 18 out of a population of 1000 females is nonexistent. CDC has numbers of about 12.3 per 1000 for this age range (Table A). You run into even more problems when you start trying to factor in minimum leaving age by state. And 12.3 out of 1000 isn't 0.0123%
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Jul 12, 2015 18:20
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