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C2C - 2.0 posted:I don't think those folks understood what "holding your nose means" because the placement of those pins would be terribly uneffective(sic). My guess is they tried to put them on the "right" way, realized it hurt like a motherfucker, and switched to what you see there.
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Jul 12, 2015 18:24
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Job Truniht posted:Let's do some very basic math. 77% of those happened at the ages of 18-19 respectively, what % of those females were still in high school? If you factor those in, you're still talking roughly <3% of the sample size. If you factor those out, you get 8.745 per 1000 females, that's less than 0.008745% of the sample size population. Again, teen pregnancy rates can vary wildly from state to state based on that state's policy towards abstinence. They are also prevalent in states with high income inequality. Did you even go to high school?
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Jul 12, 2015 18:26
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Sanders was present at MLK's March on Washington, as a SNCC organizer. He hasn't ignored racism. So was Mitch McConnell.
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Jul 12, 2015 18:30
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Did we seriously get into an argument about whether teen pregnancy is a problem in America because a teacher's union endorsed Hillary over Bernie? Listen, here's why they endorsed Hillary: because the good money is on Hillary winning the nomination, she isn't terrible on the relevant issues, and they want to get favorable treatment. This is how every single union endorsement happens.
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Jul 12, 2015 18:37
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Obdicut posted:12.3 per 1000 is 1.23%. That isn't non-existent. And you keep confusing 'being pregnant' with giving birth. I'm not sure if you took health class or not, but there's this whole period of time before giving birth that is 'pregnant'. You run into modeling issues once you start dipping to those numbers, and then consistently change rates by >30% per year in some cases.Even some very basic research into correlation of high school dropout rates with teen pregnancy had too many unknowns to really say anything meaningful about it. Be extremely dubious of these kind of numbers, especially when people start extrapolating to the entire population of the United States. HappyHippo posted:Did you even go to high school? I picked 33% as a conservative estimate, and that was indeed closer to the CDC's numbers. Job Truniht fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 18:38
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Thank you, this is very informative. Convenient ommission: Randi Weingarten was a Hillary super delegate in 2008, and was involved in the Ready for Hillary PAC. Also, as with every other issue she's taken any position on, she's got a mixed record. She supports charter schools and Common Core, for example. But I'm sure that never came up in anybody's presentation. Basically this endorsement is as surprising as a Trump speech that is a racism larded word salad. Edit: But yes to your other question Bernie does have a bit of a narrow focus, and he'll have to start doing better on relating his focus to specifics in other areas. Edit 2: I can't believe anybody is seriously arguing that teen pregnancy isn't a problem or related to educational achievement and career prospects. FFS. It's one area where Hillary deserves credit. Feather fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 18:41
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Job Truniht posted:You run into modeling issues once you start dipping to those numbers, and then consistently change rates by >30% per year in some cases.Even some very basic research into correlation of high school dropout rates with teen pregnancy had too many unknowns to really say anything meaningful about it. Be extremely dubious of these kind of numbers, especially when people start extrapolating to the entire population of the United States. 
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Jul 12, 2015 18:43
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Job Truniht posted:You run into modeling issues once you start dipping to those numbers, and then consistently change rates by >30% per year in some cases.Even some very basic research into correlation of high school dropout rates with teen pregnancy had too many unknowns to really say anything meaningful about it. Be extremely dubious of these kind of numbers, especially when people start extrapolating to the entire population of the United States. That paper is primarily about the effect of dropping out on pregnancy (among other things) not of pregnancy on dropping out. Did you actually read it? It's only concerned with teen pregnancy causing dropouts in so far as it obfuscates pregnancy as a result of dropping out. Do you understand why conflating 'teen pregnancy' and 'teen birth' was a significant mistake on your part, or do you just want to move away from that as quickly as possible? Or, as the paper you cited says: quote:For example, combining the vagaries of academic calendars and a 40-week gestation period may mean that a student‟s decision to dropout in one year may be directly due to a pregnancy, that shows up as a childbirth in the next calendar year.
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Jul 12, 2015 18:47
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I don't care what anyone says the teen pregnancy rate is directly related to the lower than average numbers for College Graduates in all the lovely states. Mississipi I think 1 in 5 adults has graduated college and they have a higher than average Teen Pregnancy rate. While numbers may be difficult on relation to Teen Pregnancy and high school graduation rates, there's a direct correlation between higher secondary education and Teen Pregnancy which is really where it counts. Hollismason fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 18:52
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GalacticAcid posted:The Saddest Campaign gets some pity from the Bernmentum juggernaut. Lincoln Chaffee for whatever cabinet position is in charge of weights and measures! Hieronymous Alloy posted:Sanders was present at MLK's March on Washington, as a SNCC organizer. He hasn't ignored racism. Doing something 50 years ago has little to do with how much you do for an issue now.
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Jul 12, 2015 18:57
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Nintendo Kid posted:Lincoln Chaffee for whatever cabinet position is in charge of weights and measures! It's a pretty good way to refute the allegation that you've ignored said issue, though. I'd like to see anyone alleging Bernie has a problem with minorities to show me crosstabs comparing minority voters for bernie vs. minority voters for [any republican candidate].
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Jul 12, 2015 19:01
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DaveWoo posted:Looks like he's actually doing it: You know, every day I ask myself, "How could this possibly get better?" and every day it does. 
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Jul 12, 2015 19:02
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's a pretty good way to refute the allegation that you've ignored said issue, though. The problem being alleged is mostly for the primary, not the general.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:02
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Obdicut posted:The problem being alleged is mostly for the primary, not the general. Yeah, but I'm not sure it *is* a problem in the primary. Primary voters are engaged, active, aware voters, and from what I've seen so far, a lot of Sander's supposed "issue" with minorities is just an awareness issue (see: his climbing #'s with Hispanic voters). Bernie's going to win because his ideas catch fire, or lose because Hillary has so much more institutional backing. I think his supposed "minority voter problem" is just an artifact of awareness and will disappear with time. If he loses it'll be because of lack of institutional support, that's all. We saw the same pattern with Obama; initially he had lower support among minorities than Hillary did, because of lack of awareness and lack of confidence that he could win. Once he won in Iowa (where Bernie's #'s are improving) he became credible and the votes swung over. Same thing could easily happen here. Bernie, like Campaign Obama, has actual charisma and passion, and Hillary doesn't (or at least is unable to communicate either).
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Jul 12, 2015 19:07
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I'm pretty sure Bernie Sanders is for universal free birth control anyway. I don't know why anyone is saying he is blind to teen pregnancy. That's something that would be hugely impacted by universal healthcare (and may already be being hugely affected by PPACA though we won't have solid numbers for a few years yet). The idea that tuition free public universities is naive because ten pregnancy has to be addressed first is really dumb. They're both problems. They're both things that the proposed policies of either Clinton or Sanders would help tremendously.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:10
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Obdicut posted:Do you understand why conflating 'teen pregnancy' and 'teen birth' was a significant mistake on your part, or do you just want to move away from that as quickly as possible? You're just dealing with junk data if they're not. Even the most basic of studies out there that factor in abortion rates for teens shows that the numbers can be extremely unreliable. This is just chartering a territory where anyone would call anything on the number disparity above into question academically.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:10
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Don't you dare slander Ron Elving, half of the greatest political podcast ever. 
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Jul 12, 2015 19:10
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Trump offers an explanation for the discrepancy between his attendance estimates and the convention center's. The fire code usually sets the capacity for rooms at under a third of what they can hold, right?
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Jul 12, 2015 19:11
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah, but I'm not sure it *is* a problem in the primary. Primary voters are engaged, active, aware voters, and from what I've seen so far, a lot of Sander's supposed "issue" with minorities is just an awareness issue (see: his climbing #'s with Hispanic voters). It may or may not be, but that his awareness hasn't risen higher is also a problem. quote:Bernie's going to win because his ideas catch fire, or lose because Hillary has so much more institutional backing. I think his supposed "minority voter problem" is just an artifact of awareness and will disappear with time. If he loses it'll be because of lack of institutional support, that's all. That's a false dichotomy. What would it take to convince you to change your mind and that if Sanders loses it actually reflects people's belief that he's not the best candidate? It kind of sounds like you're saying that if he loses, it can't possibly be for any other reason than being suppressed by the establishment. quote:We saw the same pattern with Obama; initially he had lower support among minorities than Hillary did, because of lack of awareness and lack of confidence that he could win. Once he won in Iowa (where Bernie's #'s are improving) he became credible and the votes swung over. Same thing could easily happen here. Bernie, like Campaign Obama, has actual charisma and passion, and Hillary doesn't (or at least is unable to communicate either). Did Obama start out getting less support from minorities than he did from whites? Job Truniht posted:You're just dealing with junk data if they're not. Even the most basic of studies out there that factor in abortion rates for teens shows that the numbers can be extremely unreliable. This is just chartering a territory where anyone would call anything on the number disparity above into question academically. This didn't make any sense as a response to what I said. What are you actually arguing? Obdicut fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 19:12
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Hollismason posted:I don't care what anyone says the teen pregnancy rate is directly related to the lower than average numbers for College Graduates in all the lovely states. Mississipi I think 1 in 5 adults has graduated college and they have a higher than average Teen Pregnancy rate. While numbers may be difficult on relation to Teen Pregnancy and high school graduation rates, there's a direct correlation between higher secondary education and Teen Pregnancy which is really where it counts. Just because they correlate doesn't necessarily mean one causes the other. There's a lot more to it than that; places with low college graduate numbers generally have a great many other factors going on. First off is those states tend to be openly hostile to college grads. Conservatism in America teaches that people with college educations are not to be trusted. Good luck getting a job in an area you don't know anybody in, moving there, and making friends when you're an educated outsider making good money while everybody else is poor. The other side of it is that those areas also tend to not have jobs for college grads in the first place. College grads go to where the jobs are and, well, that isn't Mississippi. Of course people with lower levels of education are also more likely to have children that do things like get jobs, get pregnant, and have children younger. I mean you're right but it isn't quite as simple as that. It does affect it but it also creates a vicious cycle. Teen parents are more likely to have children that become teen parents. Poverty makes teen pregnancy go up and graduation go down.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:15
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Thank you, this is very informative. I think at least here it's more him caring about education than educators. He still fully supports the union, but it's not as significant to him in terms of addressing the issues with learning in America as the hosed up policies that make things worse. It's a different approach to Clinton, and the endorsement makes sense.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:22
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ToxicSlurpee posted:Just because they correlate doesn't necessarily mean one causes the other. There's a lot more to it than that; places with low college graduate numbers generally have a great many other factors going on. First off is those states tend to be openly hostile to college grads. Conservatism in America teaches that people with college educations are not to be trusted. Good luck getting a job in an area you don't know anybody in, moving there, and making friends when you're an educated outsider making good money while everybody else is poor. The other side of it is that those areas also tend to not have jobs for college grads in the first place. College grads go to where the jobs are and, well, that isn't Mississippi. Of course people with lower levels of education are also more likely to have children that do things like get jobs, get pregnant, and have children younger. Yes, correlation doesn't automatically lead to causation, but if you look at the actual statistics the rate for graduation from Secondary College or Technical School level education for women who did have a teen pregnancy is incredibly low. It has a far greater impact on their lives and the childs life than people care to admit.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:23
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Children who know in fifth and sixth grade college will be available to them tuition free and have single payer healthcare are probably a lot less likely to get pregnant in the intervening years. And hell maybe if they do get pregnant we could destigmatize abortion just a tiny bit.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:24
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Hollismason posted:Yes, correlation doesn't automatically lead to causation, but if you look at the actual statistics the rate for graduation from Secondary College or Technical School level education for women who did have a teen pregnancy is incredibly low. It has a far greater impact on their lives and the childs life than people care to admit. And part of that has less to do with teen pregnancy and more to do with the fact that schools just assume you have no children. If you had on campus child care services and school wasn't so onerously expensive then it wouldn't have nearly such a negative effect. This is also of course why it can be difficult to get an education later in life. If you don't have a parental safety net, are 34, and have children to take care of how the hell do you go to college?
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Jul 12, 2015 19:25
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Joementum posted:Trump offers an explanation for the discrepancy between his attendance estimates and the convention center's. It's probably safe to take any number Trump ever uses and divide it by four.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:27
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IMO it seems more productive to make high school worthwhile again instead of trying to turn college into a second high school and pipeline all the kids through another (conveniently very expensive) educational institution.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:28
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Sir Tonk posted:It's probably safe to take any number Trump ever uses and divide it by four. That's what I do whenever he starts bragging about his IQ, at least.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:30
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Joementum posted:Trump offers an explanation for the discrepancy between his attendance estimates and the convention center's. Why doubt him, its not like he ever lied before, am I right?
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Jul 12, 2015 19:30
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Dalael posted:Why doubt him, its not like he ever lied before, am I right? He's just playing it down. There were totally actually 30,000 people in that 4,000 capacity room.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:31
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Joementum posted:Trump offers an explanation for the discrepancy between his attendance estimates and the convention center's. Did no one take a crowd shot that we can estimate from?
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Jul 12, 2015 19:32
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Donald " I gave a speech to a 30,000 people inside a convention center made out of 30,000 of my supporters " Trump is not to be doubted.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:32
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Joementum posted:Trump offers an explanation for the discrepancy between his attendance estimates and the convention center's. Completely un-fact-check-able. The Donald cannot lie, he can only be lied to.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:33
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Brannock posted:Did no one take a crowd shot that we can estimate from? Does it matter? Remember when Glenn Beck was talking about how his rally had like 10 times as many people as were actually there? The truth doesn't matter. If a right wing personality says there was 90,000 people in a room that can hold 1/20 of that then there loving were 90,000 people there.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:35
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Brannock posted:Did no one take a crowd shot that we can estimate from? So glad you asked.  He has since deleted that.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:36
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Joementum posted:So glad you asked. He's counting every hair in his wig as a patriot.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:38
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah, but I'm not sure it *is* a problem in the primary. Primary voters are engaged, active, aware voters, and from what I've seen so far, a lot of Sander's supposed "issue" with minorities is just an awareness issue (see: his climbing #'s with Hispanic voters). Politics in the black community (disclaimer: clearly a generalization here, blacks aren't a hive-mind, obviously) is different due to certain historical considerations. For example, the church figures largely in many places because of the deep roots it has back into the days of slavery. Leaders are well respected, and community members take their endorsements very seriously. So this is another case where even though Hillary has supported and voted for racist policies, and used racist rhetoric, her deep and long history of buttering up to the leadership has put her in a position where she'll get a pass for most of that. (Side note: due to this country's sad history, blacks basically always face a choice between "racist" and "less racist" at the ballot box, so Hillary's racism isn't necessarily a deal breaker even without her pandering to community leaders.) Bernie needs to overcome or find a way to bypass that. Relying on 50 year old activism isn't going to work.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:44
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Joementum posted:So glad you asked. There's quite likely more people there than the code allows for, but definitely nowhere close to five digits. Guess that settles that.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:44
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Obdicut posted:This didn't make any sense as a response to what I said. What are you actually arguing? I'm saying you're admitting the data is extremely unreliable to say that pregnancy and birth rates are uncorrelated. Pregnancy is too socially stigmatized to be represented accurately. The original argument that it has a significant impact on overall high school academic impact is bunk. It's a meaningless non-number that holds no validity on its own, and with it comes the attachment of "we need to do more studies" that everyone puts at the end of their conclusion. Brannock posted:IMO it seems more productive to make high school worthwhile again instead of trying to turn college into a second high school and pipeline all the kids through another (conveniently very expensive) educational institution. On the other hand, the benefits of college for women is that consistently outperform men on GPA to a statistically significant degree. Job Truniht fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 19:47
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Obdicut posted:It may or may not be, but that his awareness hasn't risen higher is also a problem. He's been in the race for about 3 months now. His campaign is mostly focussing in 2 states at the moment. His awareness there has risen considerably. 2 month ago, he was polling less than 10-15% nationally. According to this article: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...s-Demographics, he is now polling at about 25%. I think once he starts really campaigning in other states, his poll numbers are going to climb even higher. Will it be enough to win the nomination? Only time will tell. People need to remember that there is still more than a year of campaigning to do, and it could go either way. We can't expect someone who was a relative unknown a few months ago to overtake hillary right from the start.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:48
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Brannock posted:IMO it seems more productive to make high school worthwhile again instead of trying to turn college into a second high school and pipeline all the kids through another (conveniently very expensive) educational institution. This ignores why college has become a mandatory requirement. With the loss of good blue college jobs, market forces have pushed the middle class more towards college as the only way to secure a decent income. Employers can afford to be more picky, so potential employees have to get more education. I see the same trend starting to happen with masters/PhDs/MDs/JDs/etc. Programs are becoming more and more competitive as the economy offers fewer and fewer options.
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