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I always liked Pitta and thought he would have a real breakout in the Kubiak offense. It's a bummer. 
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Jul 14, 2015 03:57
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He's had breaks - Out two straight seasons already though
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Jul 14, 2015 04:35
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Thanks as always, you're a saint. Am I missing something, or is there no way to know which sheet is for 10 team, 8 team, etc? Same with PPR/Non-PPR? (Without opening them of course) Edit: Nevermind, forgot about the tabs at the bottom of each sheet.
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Jul 14, 2015 15:33
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Why is Roddy White going so low in mock drafts? I thought he was solid last year.
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Jul 17, 2015 07:38
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ZIGfried posted:Why is Roddy White going so low in mock drafts? I thought he was solid last year. He was injured and meh last year
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Jul 17, 2015 19:20
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Can someone help me with MFL? I created and paid $25 to set up a private draft only league for me and my friends. The website took my money and gave me a link to use to invite people to the league. Well, the link doesn't work. I cannot find the league anywhere. It doesn't show up under "my leagues" when I'm logged in. I can't find it by searching by my email address. I didnt receive an email confirmaton. It seems like it doesn't exist. I checked my PayPal account and they did take my $25. I contacted support by opening a ticket on their website and got an email telling me the league would be listed under the "my private leagues" section of the home page. There is no such section. I clicked the link in the email to reply to the ticket and it brings me to a screen that says I have no open tickets. What the hell do I do? If have to say I can't in good faith recommend this website to anyone. It's easily the worst designed and most frustrating website I've used in 15+ years of daily Internet use. I'm actually shocked that someone was able to make something so broken in TYOOL 2015.
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Jul 17, 2015 19:31
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ZIGfried posted:Why is Roddy White going so low in mock drafts? I thought he was solid last year. He was ranked 24th in WR points last year (ESPN standard), now he seems to be projected at WR30-40 in Top X00 lists. Kyle Shanahan is the new OC and doing a lot of work on the run game, so there may not be as many passes to catch. More likely, there have been two years in a row of stacked WR classes, so everyone is more excited about getting the next OBJ instead of a vet. Roddy will turn 34 this season, and you basically know his ceiling on a fantasy team. The ESPN aggregate top 300 has Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and Nelson Agholor ahead of him. There are seven 2nd year guys ahead of him on that list, so a total of ten players in their rookie or sophomore season.
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Jul 17, 2015 19:46
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We a replacement player for our Blounts & Fortes dynasty league. It's a good group of folks. The team was in last place year but has the #1 overall pick. You can see the roster here.
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Jul 17, 2015 23:05
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:We a replacement player for our Blounts & Fortes dynasty league. It's a good group of folks. The team was in last place year but has the #1 overall pick. You can see the roster here. Buzz your roster woof
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Jul 17, 2015 23:50
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That is the worst keeper/dynasty league roster I have ever seen in any fantasy sport. How did that get like that?
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Jul 18, 2015 00:35
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This guy in my league has the worst I think. I'll transcribe the startup draft last year it was so awful in retrospect. 1 Montee Ball RB | DEN 2 Demaryius Thomas WR | DEN 3 Bishop Sankey RB | TEN 4 Robert Griffin III QB | WAS 5 DeSean Jackson WR | WAS 6 Larry Fitzgerald WR | ARI 7 Rob Ninkovich DL | NE 8 Kiko Alonso LB | BUF 9 Patrick Willis LB | SF 10 Vernon Davis TE | SF 11 Steven Jackson RB | ATL 12 Maurice Jones-Drew RB | OAK 13 Knowshon Moreno RB | MIA 14 Dwayne Bowe WR | KC 15 Darren McFadden RB | OAK 16 Anquan Boldin WR | SF 17 Johnny Manziel QB | CLE 18 Marques Colston WR | NO 19 Miles Austin WR | CLE 20 Delanie Walker TE | TEN 21 Barry Church DB | DAL 22 Jason Pierre-Paul DL | NYG 23 Jared Allen DL | CHI 24 Phil Dawson K | SF 25 Denarius Moore WR | OAK 26 DeMeco Ryans LB | PHI 27 Sheldon Richardson DL | NYJ 28 DeMarcus Ware DL | DEN 29 Jake Locker QB | TEN #30 isn't in CBS's database anymore I guess so maybe he died?? drizzle fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Jul 18, 2015 |
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Jul 18, 2015 00:49
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coronaball posted:That is the worst keeper/dynasty league roster I have ever seen in any fantasy sport. How did that get like that? Haha, no way, there's far worse. Rivers, Vereen, JStew (and Mason before the Gurley pick looked good, just bad luck there), Cobb (uhh, that's it for WRs though), and Kelce. Probably won't even finish last in the league, though nor far from it. Farting is Such Sweet Sorrow, Newtonian Fluids, and Disposable Income are all similarly weak imo. I'm in a league with a team projecting to start Cutler, TRich, Doug Martin, Roddy White, Colston, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and Fleener...and our start up draft was this spring 
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Jul 18, 2015 01:16
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RVProfootballer posted:I'm in a league with a team projecting to start Cutler, TRich, Doug Martin, Roddy White, Colston, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and Fleener...and our start up draft was this spring 
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Jul 18, 2015 01:20
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RVProfootballer posted:I'm in a league with a team projecting to start Cutler, TRich, Doug Martin, Roddy White, Colston, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and Fleener...and our start up draft was this spring Which of those was your first rounder
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Jul 18, 2015 01:21
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Azhais posted:Which of those was your first rounder Oh hahah nah, not my team. His first four rounds went Charles, Foster, Edelman, and DJax. He's made some really bad trades: Tannehill for a 3rd + Terrence Williams, Jamaal Charles + Knile Davis for 1.07+a 2016 1st, then 1.07 for 2.02 + Doug Martin, then 2.02+2.06+2016 1st for Michael Floyd+Charles Johnson (DL)+3.12, then Keenan Allen for Jerry Hughes+Bernard Pierce+Ryan Mundy+three 5th-7th round rookie picks (yikes), etc etc. He's active and involved and legitimately doesn't seem to be purposely blowing up his team, he just takes like any trade. 12 team league, BTW. sourdough fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Jul 18, 2015 |
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Jul 18, 2015 01:36
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RVProfootballer posted:
OK you win. And I read the rules wrong for that Blounts league, I thought they HAD to keep 16 players, not COULD. It's still a pretty bad team with a ton of injury risk.
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Jul 18, 2015 01:42
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coronaball posted:OK you win. You can't keep more than 16.
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Jul 18, 2015 01:57
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:You can't keep more than 16. If that team is open I'll take it. PM the details.
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Jul 18, 2015 03:07
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My team is on a similar downward spiral. I need Lynch to go somewhere besides Seattle so I have two viable starting running backs. Also, really regretting picking Bortles over Bridgewater.
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Jul 18, 2015 03:33
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Sataere posted:Also, really regretting picking Bortles over Bridgewater. You're not the only one. And at least you didn't go for JFF.
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Jul 18, 2015 04:00
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How the mighty have fallen (I took Duke Johnson instead)
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Jul 18, 2015 05:14
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So now that I've made my major picks in the SAS dynasty league, I can share this with ya'll while it's still current: Forever_Peace's Dynasty Rookie Draft Big Board For standard scoring non-salary leagues. (downloadable xlsx here) This doesn't include any custom projections or anything. It just collects a large set of data about each of the rookies and puts it all into one color-coded spreadsheet. Simple usage: Use the "FP_BigBoard" column to identify the BPA (these are my own subjective rankings based on the data in all of the other columns). Take that player if highlighted. Try to trade down if not highlighted. Intended usage: Use the data in the spreadsheet to make your own Big Board, based on the particulars of your league. Description of Contents: There are four main sections: Player info, measurables and production, talent evaluation, and fantasy rankings. Player info - Name, position, team, age, bye-week, and my own rankings (FP_Bigboard) Measurables and Production- SPARQ (a measure of overall athleticism derived from combine and pro-day tests - what is listed here is the z-score and the positional percentile) Playmaker score (an aggregate measure of peak efficiency vs. other D-I WRs from Football Outsiders - listed as a percentile vs multi-decade database, then a z-score vs. current draft class) Arm Span (listed as a percentile, then as a z-score vs. other ranked WRs) Dominator Score (a measure of volume, specifically the percentage of pertinent yardage and TDs from a team attributable to this player - listed as a percentage then a z-score vs. current draft class) Breakout Age (how young they were when they first achieved a particular Dominator score, i.e. were "featured" in the college offense - listed as an age [lower is better] then a z-score [higher is better]) "Z Measurables" (a simple average of the z-scores of the above categories) Talent Evaluation (by actual NFL people) - Round and pick Drafted by the NFL Positional rank in the NFL draft (e.g. Devante Parker was the 3rd wide receiver taken, so he's a "3") Brugler's draft rank in his big rookie scouting portfolio (also listed by position) "Draft Rank" (a simple average of Brugler and the actual NFL draft) Fantasy Rankings (all current as of today)- FFC_ADP (fantasy football calculator's rookie mock ADP) DFW (dyanasty football warehouse's staff consensus rank) DLF (dynasty league football's staff consensus rank) FantasyPros (fantasypros consensus rookie ranking of the people I trust) REDRAFT (The redraft consensus ranking, an indicator of "opportunity" - how much they are expected to contribute right away by the fantasy community) -All of the columns are color-coded on a smooth linear scale, where better values are more green and worse values are more red. -Highlighted names are the ones I am targeting. This does not mean I would take a lower-ranked highlighted player over a higher-ranked non-highlighted player. The rankings are the rankings. Non-highlighted players mean I think that player might be more valued by somebody else than I value them, and I would first look to trade down. I also look to trade up if it means moving into range of a highlighted player. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 03:55 on Jul 19, 2015 |
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Jul 18, 2015 20:14
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Usage notes For making your own ranks, I'd recommend using the consensus dynasty ranking as your starting point. Over the long term, wide receivers tend to have a lower bust rate than RBs, but when you hit on an rb in a rookie draft, it's gonna be a hell of a boon in standard leagues. From there, different positions have different things that tend to work well as predictors. Running Backs: - Dynasty rankings are still your starting point, but opportunity tends to be really important for RBs (over the long term, rookie RBs who come into the league playing good minutes tend to beat out even more highly-drafted RBs without a starting role), and redraft rankings can partially reflect anticipated role for the coming year. Weight right-now contributions more than for WRs. - More athletic backs tend to be better over the long run than less athletic backs. All other things equal, bet on the physical freaks (this year, that's Abdullah, David Johnson, and Zach Zenner in rounds 1, 2, and 3 respectively). - Breakout age > dominator score for backs. You want guys who punch above their weight. Receivers - SPARQ is actually slightly less correlated with future performance for WRs than for RBs. For WRs, the physical skills you're looking for are speed and catch radius, the latter being related to arm span. The physical specimens this year are Parker, Funchess, Conley, and Coates. - While I wouldn't focus on these physical skills to choose who to prioritize, it can help identify who to avoid. I'd only want to take a slower, smaller receiver if he's already shown he can carry a team and be an efficient pass catcher. For example, Lockett has little baby T-rex arms, his dominator score (volume) and playmaker score (efficiency) show that he made it work in college. - WR draft evaluations tend to be pretty good. Trust that they know what they're doing. Put some weight on NFL draft rankings. Personally, I'd take a flyer one somebody Brugler really loves too (e.g. Jaelen Strong). - Playmaker and breakout age are both pretty important indicators that correlate with future performance. - It's OK to gamble on a WR that doesn't have a clear path to starting. Role isn't as important as it is for RBs (in part because their careers are so much longer). Finally, for those of you unfamiliar with z-scores: it's just a measure of the number of standard deviations away from the mean for that position. So, for example, Todd Gurley had a breakout age of 18.1, which is significantly younger than when most other RBs accounted for such a big part of the ground game. How much earlier? Well, according to the z-score, nearly two standard deviations better than the average (roughly 95th percentile). And here's an example of how I used this in the SAS rookie draft that started last week (hey guys). 1) I start the draft with pick 1.2, 2.2, 2.4, and 3.2. Cooper comes off the board first. It's my pick next, and I have Gurley at #2, so I'd be happy to take him. But according to the consensus ranks and ADP, a lot of people have Gurley as the #1 overall. So I cast around for a potential trade (note that Gurley is not highlighted on the spreadsheet for exactly this reason). Eventually, I find one, and trade down from 1.2 to the 1.12 (gaining a bag of picks and a WR2 in the process). Essentially, I valued Gurley as the 2, he valued Gurley as the 1, so we found the win-win by charging a value halfway between pick 1.1 and 1.2 (both parties feel like we came out ahead in terms of value). 2) I notice some of my mid-first targets start to slip. A few players go earlier than expected and push back the availability of the others. I take the opportunity to try to get some value on the block of targets in the mid-first, trading up from the 1.12 to the 1.8. (Beer had the last laugh though because he managed to land Agholor here with my former 1.12, but I'm still happy with the move) 3) The 1.8 rolls around and I have a choice between Parker (my 5) and Perriman (my 6). Normally, I would go with Parker here, but I want a bye-week and backup WR3 so I take Perriman, who has a redraft projection a few rounds higher. I'm also a sucker for efficient guys, and I want a share of Flacco's targets this year. This is the kind of receiver I like in standard (whereas Parker has Stills to contend with for the big-yardage plays, who I think is really undervalued) 4) While I'm on the clock for 1.8, I do the math and notice that my 2.4 is probably not going to land in one of my highlighted sweet spots. I trade up from 2.4 to the 1.11, where I think I can grab one of the RBs. 5) Things work out and I take Yeldon (my 8) at 1.11. The third RB off the board during the NFL draft, Brugler likes him, the dynasty rankings are pretty unanimous, and his redraft value is second only to Gordon in the entire draft class. 6) I wrap up the flurry of activity taking DGB (my 10) at 2.2. Mediocre measureables, but potentially game-breaking talent that people are avoiding due to off-the-field issues. I was willing to take the long-term gamble. Two major points I want to show from how I used the chart. First, I let the sweet spots guide my pick trades, projecting ahead and trying to nab my personal targets. If you do this, understand that you aren't trying to pull one over your leaguemates - try to settle on fair value for the picks, and if you value the PLAYERS at that pick more than they do, it's a win-win. Be fair in your dealings, and people will be more amenable to deal - what you're looking for in these pick trades is liquidity. Second, I trusted the process and took more or less the BPA at each pick. The specific measures in the table played into setting my big board, but from there, they're only really useful in helping balance risk (potential future upside) vs. role (immediate expected performance). Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Jul 19, 2015 |
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Jul 19, 2015 00:04
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Enforka posted:That core is a thing of beauty- young, cheap and talented. Assuming a standard roster (1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX) I don't think you need more depth. Robinson and Stewart are cromulent second starters, but who says they have to start? Great post, sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I'm pretty attached to my second round pick, for a couple of reasons. First is that this is a snake draft, so as last year's league champ, my second rounder is actually the #13 overall, so I will be sniping the best player available who didn't get picked in the first round. Since I am covered off on all fronts from my six keepers, being able to take the BPA who slips out of the first round will be huge, especially since so many elite guys are getting kept (AP, Charles, Shady, Lacy, Forte, ODB, Gronk, Le'veon, etc.). Because so much first-round talent is being kept, the remaining value is immediately after that first rush, when you see who got left on the table. I see that second round pick as my last shot at poaching elite talent before I come back around all the way at #36, which is a long-rear end time. If I can grab Foster or Dez Bryant or whomever there, I am golden. I definitely like your idea of packaging some mid-round picks to move up, though. I should see if I can secure another late second or an early third, as that's where I see the second big goldrush of RB talent this year.
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Jul 20, 2015 17:45
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RCarr posted:Can someone help me with MFL? I created and paid $25 to set up a private draft only league for me and my friends. The website took my money and gave me a link to use to invite people to the league. Well, the link doesn't work. I cannot find the league anywhere. It doesn't show up under "my leagues" when I'm logged in. I can't find it by searching by my email address. I didnt receive an email confirmaton. It seems like it doesn't exist. I checked my PayPal account and they did take my $25. I contacted support by opening a ticket on their website and got an email telling me the league would be listed under the "my private leagues" section of the home page. There is no such section. I clicked the link in the email to reply to the ticket and it brings me to a screen that says I have no open tickets. What the hell do I do? Go to where you'll join a public league. You'll see it at the bottom with the # of players if it's not full.
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Jul 21, 2015 00:34
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Anybody else high on Brandin Cooks? In a lot of mock drafts I've done he's been going late 3rd-early 4th round. Rotoworld thinks he'll be the #1 target for Brees by far with Graham and Stills gone, and Colston just getting older. I know the Saints could go run-heavy this season, but c'mon, it's Drew Brees. I feel like the targets are going to be there every game for Cooks if he gets open.
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Jul 21, 2015 20:27
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Spiller Miller Ingram Ellington Gordon Morris gently caress marry kill. Kidding, how do you rank them in PPR.
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Jul 21, 2015 21:56
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Its Miller Time posted:Spiller Miller ~ Gordon Ellington ~ Morris ~ Ingram Spiller Each line is roughly equal for me. Miller will be a three down back for Miami, and even if he only gets the workload of last year, he'll be a solid top 10 RB. Maybe I'm too high on Gordon, but I like him to get a nice workload as well. Ellington could be a good 3 down back, but not sure he can handle it. I think he'll have the opportunity to try, though. Morris and Ingram are better two down backs, but both lacking in passing game. Safer than Ellington, but less upside. Spiller has a lot of upside, but a pretty low floor, as we just don't know how he'll be used. I think they're all in the 10-20 range for RBs, though, so I wouldn't argue much with almost any shuffling of them.
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Jul 21, 2015 23:08
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I really want to like Spiller in Sean Payton's offense but he's burned me so many times in the past. I'm torn.
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Jul 22, 2015 01:17
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Benne posted:I really want to like Spiller in Sean Payton's offense but he's burned me so many times in the past. I'm torn. Same
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Jul 22, 2015 01:20
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Just try and remember what an awful coach Doug Marrone was
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Jul 22, 2015 01:28
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Benne posted:I really want to like Spiller in Sean Payton's offense but he's burned me so many times in the past. I'm torn. I feel the same way, but for fan reasons too. Ultimately, I'm hoping he lives up to at least half the hype and has a pretty decent Bush/Sproles type season. I wouldn't draft him as high as we used to, but maybe third or fourth.
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Jul 22, 2015 01:30
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His ADP seems like the right spot so far, there's potential for brilliance but nobody is banking on him to carry their roster like they were a couple years ago. If you manage to double up with Spiller and Ingram then I think you'll be in a good position.
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Jul 22, 2015 02:44
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Hi all, thanks for the informative content to prep for the season. I need keeper advice for my 10 team non PPR standard scoring league. We allow 4 keepers year to year. There are a bunch of new teams coming into the league this year, and we are expanding from 8-10 teams, so basically everyone in the top 40 by ADP will be gone when the actual redraft portion starts. Anyway, here's my team: Sanchez, Mark QB - PHI Crowell, Isaiah RB - CLE Ellington, Andre RB - ARI Green, A.J. WR - CIN Marshall, Brandon WR - NYJ Kelce, Travis TE - KC Jeffery, Alshon WR - CHI Wilson, Russell QB - SEA Bernard, Giovani RB - CIN Blue, Alfred RB - HOU Hill, Jeremy RB - CIN Hyde, Carlos RB - SF Miller, Lamar RB - MIA Wallace, Mike WR - MIN My thoughts for my 4 keepers currently are Green, Jeffery, Wilson, and Hill. I'm wondering if Hyde or Kelce isn't worth a thought though. Thanks for your help!
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Jul 22, 2015 05:13
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If it's 1qb keep Lamar Miller over Wilson
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Jul 22, 2015 05:17
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Metapod posted:If it's 1qb keep Lamar Miller over Wilson Agreed. I'd think about Kelce over Wilson too, and maybe even over Miller, if you buy into the Kelce hype train (should I?!).
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Jul 22, 2015 05:37
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I would not keep a TE with those settings whose name does not rhyme with Knob Stonkowski. Green/Jeffery/Hill/Miller seems like a no-brainer
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Jul 22, 2015 05:41
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If there's any interest in doing the Beer Trade Fantasy League again this year, I activated it in ESPN this morning, and started a new thread here: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3732413 Last year's participants get first crack at joining, and I'll post back in this thread if any slots open up. It is basically a Fantasy Football BIF.
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Jul 22, 2015 14:10
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ubiquitous rex posted:Hi all, thanks for the informative content to prep for the season. I need keeper advice for my 10 team non PPR standard scoring league. We allow 4 keepers year to year. There are a bunch of new teams coming into the league this year, and we are expanding from 8-10 teams, so basically everyone in the top 40 by ADP will be gone when the actual redraft portion starts. Alshon Jeffery, AJ Green, and Jeremy Hill are all bona fide second rounder players so keeping them is a no brainer. Of the remaining players my preference would go to Lamar Miller.
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Jul 22, 2015 14:34
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Levitan has an article up on overdrafted players and I found myself agreeing with nearly every single thing he says. edit: nonetheless, Green/Jeffery/Hill/Miller. Make it so.
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Jul 22, 2015 16:50
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