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FAUXTON posted:Doesn't change the fact that she's a batshit right wing shithead who probably has some form of indictment out there with her name in the defendant field. She's a Florida Republican, calling her "a batshit right wing shithead who probably has some form of indictment out there with her name in the defendant field" is redundant.
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Jul 15, 2015 00:09
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Gyges posted:She's a Florida Republican, calling her "a batshit right wing shithead who probably has some form of indictment out there with her name in the defendant field" is redundant. Okay she's a uniquely bad specimen who rescheduled a loving execution for a fundraiser.
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Jul 15, 2015 00:10
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The winner of the Republican primary is going to be the craziest rat in the shithouse. DeSantis' crazy is strong, but really nobody is going to out crazy Pam Bondi if she runs.
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Jul 15, 2015 00:14
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Cliff Racer posted:McGuinty is an awful choice and shows that the Anyone But Joe group is getting desperate. Her campaign for governor went absolutely nowhere aginst Schwartz, McCord, etc. At least Sestak won his primary and took Toomey to the wire, as far as I can tell she's done nothing electorally. I'm not sure what's wrong with her aside from experience? She'd have a better chance and honestly, who are you going to find better except Rendell?
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Jul 15, 2015 16:01
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De Nomolos posted:I'm not sure what's wrong with her aside from experience? She'd have a better chance and honestly, who are you going to find better except Rendell? Why isn't he running? In a year where Hillary Clinton will most likely be the Democratic nominee for President, why wouldn't Rendell want to take a crack at the Senate race? He'll most likely never get a better shot.
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Jul 15, 2015 16:48
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Alter Ego posted:Why isn't he running? In a year where Hillary Clinton will most likely be the Democratic nominee for President, why wouldn't Rendell want to take a crack at the Senate race? He'll most likely never get a better shot. He wants to be Secretary of something.
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Jul 15, 2015 18:10
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Badger of Basra posted:He wants to be Secretary of something. Yeah. A page or two back I mentioned that I think he wants to be Secretary of Transportation. He's a militant Clinton loyalist and would most likely wind up in her cabinet in some capacity, so the only way I could see him running for Senate would be a visit from Hillary or Bill instructing him in no uncertain terms to do so.
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Jul 15, 2015 22:33
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De Nomolos posted:I'm not sure what's wrong with her aside from experience? She'd have a better chance and honestly, who are you going to find better except Rendell? What on earth makes you think she'd make a better candidate than Sestak? Sestak has has been a congressman and an admiral. He knocked out a sitting senator in a primary back in 2010 (though that guy was a party switcher) and took Toomey right to the line in a very hostile environment. McGuinty served in an appointed position and ran a go nowhere campaign for governor where she did nothing to distinguish herself.
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Jul 17, 2015 07:10
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GalacticAcid posted:Yeah. A page or two back I mentioned that I think he wants to be Secretary of Transportation. He's a militant Clinton loyalist and would most likely wind up in her cabinet in some capacity, so the only way I could see him running for Senate would be a visit from Hillary or Bill instructing him in no uncertain terms to do so. Yeah I'd be shocked if he's not Secretary of Transportation
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Jul 17, 2015 18:22
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Cliff Racer posted:What on earth makes you think she'd make a better candidate than Sestak? Sestak has has been a congressman and an admiral. He knocked out a sitting senator in a primary back in 2010 (though that guy was a party switcher) and took Toomey right to the line in a very hostile environment. McGuinty served in an appointed position and ran a go nowhere campaign for governor where she did nothing to distinguish herself. The DSCC is really wracking their brains trying to find ANYONE that isn't Sestak. Josh Shapiro repeatedly turned them down, (probably so he can run to replace Kane), and now Pawlowski has his own problems with the FBI. As far as McGuinty, I don't think anyone was going to make any headway in the dem primary race for governor. Schwartz came in a distant 2nd, and she couldn't even win Philadelphia or Montgomery, her 2 home counties. That being said, I would call PA a tossup no matter who ends up running against Toomey, and if I had to pick one, I'd say Toomey wins by a 3 or 4 point margin. He's done a decent job of positioning himself as more moderate, even though he is to the right of the state as a whole. Saying the race leans dem I think is democrat wishful thinking.
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Jul 17, 2015 18:44
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You know how candidates sometimes look great on paper but are total failures on the trail? Folks like Sestak are like that, Coakley, Sink, etc. Campaigns aren't a battle of résumé length, it's got a pretty heavy legwork and charisma component and some people just don't or just can't seal that part of the deal.
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Jul 17, 2015 19:33
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Now Donald Trump is recruiting people to primary John McCain.  quote:“You really should think about doing it,” Trump told [Arizona State Tresurer Jeff] DeWit, who nodded as he sat inches from Trump in the cream-colored cabin. Naturally, DeWit says he's "100% not running", but he totally should because he's not a loser or a dummy like McCain.
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Jul 17, 2015 21:43
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Looking forward to Trump calling someone a smelly poopyface on the debate stage.
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Jul 17, 2015 21:47
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What is it looking like for Florida this season and how crazy are our senators?
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Jul 19, 2015 12:14
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Klaus88 posted:What is it looking like for Florida this season and how crazy are our senators? Marco Rubio's quixotic ride in the clown car has resulted in him declaring he won't run for reelection as Senator of Florida. So it's time to reopen the Thunderdome. Republicans Declared
Democrats Declared
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Jul 19, 2015 15:30
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Gyges posted:Marco Rubio's quixotic ride in the clown car has resulted in him declaring he won't run for reelection as Senator of Florida. So it's time to reopen the Thunderdome.  It would be less corrosive if we just dipped every candidate in chum and threw them into a pit of wild alligators and declared that the last one standing gets to be senator. Who's the craziest republican amongst this local clown car?
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Jul 19, 2015 15:48
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I accidentally left
Currently the reigning crazy king for the Republicans is easily DeSantis. He's drunk so much Tea Party Kool-Aid his blood is Reactionary Raspberry red.
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Jul 19, 2015 19:24
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Lateresa Jones is probably a nut too, you don't get too many sane Independents outside of New England. Desantis isn't a good candidate but overall the king nut in this race is Alan Grayson, who's already been discussed at length in this and many other threads.
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Jul 19, 2015 19:29
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I'm still expecting crazy-rear end Pam Bondi to jump in and run away with the lead because starbursts.
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Jul 19, 2015 20:11
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I have a feeling Bondi is eying Skeletor's throne. If she wanted the Senate seat she probably would have already declared and starved the field of funding.
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Jul 19, 2015 21:36
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Rep. David Jolly will probably run also after the court-ordered redrawing of the maps adds Dems to his district.
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Jul 20, 2015 04:32
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Sad Banana posted:Rep. David Jolly will probably run also after the court-ordered redrawing of the maps adds Dems to his district. It's now official.
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Jul 20, 2015 14:28
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Cliff Racer posted:What on earth makes you think she'd make a better candidate than Sestak? Sestak has has been a congressman and an admiral. He knocked out a sitting senator in a primary back in 2010 (though that guy was a party switcher) and took Toomey right to the line in a very hostile environment. McGuinty served in an appointed position and ran a go nowhere campaign for governor where she did nothing to distinguish herself. You're right, the guy who is campaigning like its 1950 and has no party support and was never particularly well-liked is the man in a key seat such as this. Maybe they can get John Murtha's corpse to run. At least it won't stomp on kids.
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Jul 20, 2015 17:42
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The Nastier Nate posted:The DSCC is really wracking their brains trying to find ANYONE that isn't Sestak. Josh Shapiro repeatedly turned them down, (probably so he can run to replace Kane), and now Pawlowski has his own problems with the FBI. As far as McGuinty, I don't think anyone was going to make any headway in the dem primary race for governor. Schwartz came in a distant 2nd, and she couldn't even win Philadelphia or Montgomery, her 2 home counties. I'd say it as Lean Democratic if it wasn't Sestak running, since it's a presidential year. But Sestak is unpopular and frankly a pretty terrible candidate (not to mention a notoriously abusive employer).
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Jul 20, 2015 20:20
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Rendell now thinks McGinty will run.quote:When rumors first started to become reality and Katie McGinty began considering a Senate run, it was thought Rendell would be a vocal supporter. After all, not only was Sestak an old foe but McGinty had served in his cabinet as DEP Secretary from 2003 to 2008. Rendell was lukewarm, though, stating that he didn’t believe McGinty would ultimately pull the trigger. Perhaps the passage of some time, or McGinty’s journey to Martha’s Vineyard, changed his mind. According to John Baer of the Daily News, Rendell now believes there is a 70% chance McGinty will run. Possibly worth noting that the Senate race was closer than the gubernatorial race in 2010. Onorato was a weak candidate though.
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Jul 21, 2015 02:53
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Jim Burn, the state chairman for the PA Democrats, is resigning in the interest of party unity. There had been rumors this was coming for some time. Regardless, it seems likely to add to the coming shitshow.
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Jul 21, 2015 16:27
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GalacticAcid posted:Jim Burn, the state chairman for the PA Democrats, is resigning in the interest of party unity. Better than everyone gets on the same page with the successful statewide candidates, honestly.
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Jul 21, 2015 17:01
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I'm not too well versed in Pennsylvania politics but I did have some questions. Are Democrats still angry at Sestak because he primaried Arlen Specter and won? From what I remember Sestak then went on to lose in an extremely close race during the Republican wave of 2010. I would think if he actually received party support this time around he would do better. Since he only lost by a very close margin during the 2010 midterm elections, wouldn't he also have a better chance of winning during a presidential year when the voting demographics/turnout will be more to his favor? Has he done anything since 2010 to piss of Pennsylvanians? Has Pat Toomey done anything noteworthy to be re-elected by a leaning blue state during a presidential election year?
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Jul 21, 2015 17:54
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From what I hear, he doesn't care what anyone thinks about his campaign except Joe Sestak and, well, if he thinks it's a good idea to spend his time walking across the state like he's in 1962 or whatever, then he's gonna do it. Never mind that some people would actually like to compete for the seat and maybe snag some Philly-area house seats too.
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Jul 21, 2015 17:57
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My opinion, is that Sestak is one of those candidates that looks good on paper (admiral, military service, congressman) but for some reason I can't define, doesn't translate into votes. That, and he is clashes with the party higher ups. Toomey on the other hand has for the most part kept his head down, has not been confrontational and even (slightly) moved to the center during his time in the senate sponsoring a lot of legislation with democrats (Bob Casey especially, for obvious reasons), including the Toomey-Manchin gun background bill. In my experience, it doesn't take a lot for moderates in PA to vote for a republican, as long as they can say "he's not one of the crazy ones". Don't get me wrong, Toomey is still quite conservative, but he knows he needs to soften up to win in 2016. I also have a theory that Casey and Toomey have a gentleman's agreement to stay out of each other's races, so I would not expect him to campaign for Sestak. Barring some horrific scandal, I would not bank on Toomey losing in 2016, but if he does it will be on the strength of Hillary Clinton's coattails.
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Jul 21, 2015 18:46
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nonrev posted:I'm not too well versed in Pennsylvania politics but I did have some questions. I don't really care about the Specter thing, he had his 50 years in congress and would have gotten crushed by Toomey anyway. If the state Dem party is upset with Sestak primary-ing a long time Republican, they deserved the Corbett Reign of Terror. As for Sestak himself, I don't think he knows how to run a campaign and has people issues. Lucky for him, most of the other Dems suck more (barring a Rendell surprise). I wonder if the State Dems ever reached out to Nutter for anything As for Toomey, he hasn't been that bad for a 2010 Tea Party Republican (surprisingly), but he's still a wiener. Gun to head, he barely wins re-election because the Dem field is weeeeeeak and he isn't as despised as Corbett.
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Jul 21, 2015 19:18
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Toomey isn't really Tea Party in that he's been a big force in PA politics since the 90s, national even from when he chaired the Club for Growth. I'm honestly shocked at how under the radar he has been these last few years, Corbett was the one who was supposed to cruise while Toomey shat all over himself but it ended up being the other way around. I'm still of the opinion that the walk across the state was and is a good thing, but he needs to eventually wrap it up and have a real campaign. This is still pre-race stuff, a number of states have candidates who haven't even declared yet and if Sestak wants to spend that time constructing a "walked everywhere" talking point then thats a lot better than the people who are sitting around "sounding things out." I'm basing this all on the assumption that he's rehired his Specter beating 2010 team though.
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Jul 21, 2015 23:01
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Speculation is over, McGinty is in.
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Jul 22, 2015 21:45
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GalacticAcid posted:Speculation is over, McGinty is in. She'll have the backing of the state, but let's see if she can run a campaign Ehhhh
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Jul 22, 2015 22:13
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DOOP posted:She'll have the backing of the state, but let's see if she can run a campaign My prediction: McGinty beats Sestak in the primary 57-43. Toomey beats McGinty in the general 52-48.
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Jul 23, 2015 03:01
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Cliff Racer posted:I'm basing this all on the assumption that he's rehired his Specter beating 2010 team though. Sestak's 2010 team was made up of 1. people who will never work for him again and 2. people whose last name is Sestak. Many of his 2010 staff quit during the general election due to him paying poverty wages and forcing unreasonably long hours (even compared to most Dem campaigns that are already quite terrible). Honestly, it's not just the primary that Dems were pissed about in 2010. That was part of it, but it's also that be purposefully antagonizes the party at every opportunity and is uncooperative for basically no reason other than his own stupid ego. He endorsed primary challengers against incumbent Dems, including Allyson Schwartz. He refuses to coordinate spending or organizing efforts with other candidates. He's just a terrible person in general. He didn't beat Arlen because of his campaign. He beat him because Arlen was a Republican. Sestak was woefully unprepared for a general election campaign, and that's why the seat was lost. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 19:58 on Jul 23, 2015 |
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Jul 23, 2015 19:52
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The Nastier Nate posted:My prediction: Gonna say no if McGinty wins. Hillary will get 55% which means all McG has to do is run 5% behind. 55% is around what even Kerry got, without the energized black vote.
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Jul 23, 2015 21:50
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I was thinking about this today. I do not want Chuck Grassley to run again. He is 81 will be 82 in '16 and 88 at the end of that term. We are getting into the death in the office territory. With our next election being in 2018 for governor and unless the Iowa democratic party gets it's poo poo together Kim Reynolds will probably take it (unless she is being groomed for the senate seat). I see this seat staying red well past Grassley. I just don't understand this states politics. We are a light blue state that has gone deep red.
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Jul 23, 2015 22:06
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Mr Hootington posted:I just don't understand this states politics. We are a light blue state that has gone deep red. The simplest answer is one Democratic partisans hate: the Democratic party leadership is by turns incompetent and complicit. Then when poo poo like "light blue states elect deep red people to office" they blame actual progressives for not turning out.
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Jul 23, 2015 22:13
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Feather posted:The simplest answer is one Democratic partisans hate: the Democratic party leadership is by turns incompetent and complicit. Then when poo poo like "light blue states elect deep red people to office" they blame actual progressives for not turning out. Yep. Chet Culver was the democratic governor after Tom Vilsack. There are a number of actual scandals attached to his governorship that helped piss away everything Iowa Dems built under Tom Vilsack. It is funny though Branstad was the beloved 4 term governor from the late 80's and 90's and his current administration has seen about as many scandals as Culver's, but seems to be getting away with the poo poo. Concerned Citizen posted:I don't think it has anything to do with "actual progressives" not turning out - it's mainly that Braley just ran a lovely loving campaign and people genuinely liked Joni Ernst. Some people tend to think that there's some sort of cache of shy progressives that will only vote if the right candidate comes along, but otherwise will abstain in a very principled fashion. This is essentially never the case - in fact, in Iowa it more a case of Democrats turning out at midterm levels and Republicans turning out at Presidential levels. This too. Bruce should have won, but they did such a terrible job. The farmer comment sealed his fate 8 months before the election. Mr Hootington has issued a correction as of 22:34 on Jul 23, 2015 |
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Jul 23, 2015 22:31
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