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Sataere posted:So we just got our keeper rosters. We completely redid our format last year and started from scratch. It is a $300 salary cap, with salaries going up 10% the first three years. 20% the fourth year, 50% the fifth year and 100% every year forward. I was the only person in the league to realize that by letting everyone spend their money first, I could just get young rookies for under $10 and completely dominate for years going forward. Behold my keepers for next year. To keep players from always staying $1, a 10% increase on $1 is $2. You keep a DST and IDP? Your league is weird. I like it. Who's available to take?
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Jul 27, 2015 21:33
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No idea, but I think I'm just gonna target Kevin White, Amari Cooper, Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley. They should be way cheaper than they will be going forward, and I feel at least one of the two will be a stud for years to come. I know McCoy and Megatron are available, but I have no idea what other salary dumps there are yet. Jimmy Graham is probably getting dumped too, if the owner can't flip him. Since he costs $63, I don't think he will. I'm sort of hoping someone cuts Gronkowski, so I can just throw a ton of money at him and completely dominate the league.
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Jul 27, 2015 21:39
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:It's the projected score of a player (per week) relative to a baseline (the nth player in parenthesis after each position in the title block). The baseline in this case is the historical number of players needed to fill that position when you take into account injuries and bye weeks. Beautiful, thanks. Hey, this is sort of a strange request, but do you happen to to have the final beersheets from last year around? I'm having a hell of a time developing a value-based draft strategy that beat the aggregate consensus in ESPN standard leagues last year (though they completely smoke the rankings in custom leagues, as you might expect). After 20-odd different value-based approaches, I'm starting to wonder if last year was just a bad year for value-based drafts in standard leagues, or maybe even if value-based concepts are so ingrained now that rankings are roughly efficient in standard leagues. It would give me some peace of mind to have Beersheets as a benchmark: if some of the value-based techniques I've been trying out produce comparable results, I'll probably move on to other questions, but if Beersheets does pretty well vs. rankings even in standard leagues, it gives me something to aim for.
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Jul 28, 2015 03:09
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Value based drafting is based on the idea that you can project players somewhat accurately. If you were able to do that consistently, fantasy football would be trivial and you probably would be working for an nfl team.
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Jul 28, 2015 04:21
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Papes posted:Value based drafting is based on the idea that you can project players somewhat accurately. If you were able to do that consistently, fantasy football would be trivial and you probably would be working for an nfl team. Well yeah, that's true. But I'm interested in comparing the projection based approaches to the rank based approaches (which should also be similarly noisy), not comparing them to some Aristotelian ideal. In the simulations I've run, most of the VBD strategies are mopping the floor in most custom scoring systems, but actually seemed suboptimal in standard leagues last year against a field of simple rank drafters. The comparison is what I'm looking into here, not the predictive capacity in a vacuum.
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Jul 28, 2015 04:55
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Should dfs discussion be its own thread?
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Jul 28, 2015 05:42
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Forever_Peace posted:Beautiful, thanks. Yeah, what format do you want? Papes posted:Value based drafting is based on the idea that you can project players somewhat accurately. If you were able to do that consistently, fantasy football would be trivial and you probably would be working for an nfl team. This is absolutely right, and is one of the reasons I'm starting to lean towards focusing on consistency and historical performance as opposed to educated guessing. That's why the sheets include the number of weeks a player had certain milestones in the past. The SituAsian posted:Should dfs discussion be its own thread? How popular is it now within SA? I kind of like having the DFS stuff here since it encourages more discussion.
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Jul 28, 2015 13:16
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Yeah, what format do you want? Thanks! Sent an email. Now to turn your "how to use beersheets" walkthrough into an algorithm...
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Jul 28, 2015 13:36
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The SituAsian posted:Should dfs discussion be its own thread? I'm actually working on an Effortpost OP for DFS, should have it up by the end of the week or so.
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Jul 28, 2015 14:33
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A guy in my PPR keeper league proposed that we switch the RB2 slot into a flex slot due to the perceived lack of options there. I found it at least interesting to consider. Anyone else heard something like this in their teams?
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Jul 28, 2015 16:09
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Parmesan Basil posted:A guy in my PPR keeper league proposed that we switch the RB2 slot into a flex slot due to the perceived lack of options there. I found it at least interesting to consider. Anyone else heard something like this in their teams? Working the WW for RB2s is like half of what you actually do each week in fantasy. Replace your kicker with a flex instead.
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Jul 28, 2015 16:18
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Forever_Peace posted:Working the WW for RB2s is like half of what you actually do each week in fantasy. Replace your kicker with a flex instead. Yeah seriously, and there are more than enough RB2s to go around with PPR, even in a Keeper league. 420 draft roy helu all day unless its like a 14 team league or something
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Jul 28, 2015 16:23
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Parmesan Basil posted:A guy in my PPR keeper league proposed that we switch the RB2 slot into a flex slot due to the perceived lack of options there. I found it at least interesting to consider. Anyone else heard something like this in their teams? How many teams in the league? If it's 14+ I could maybe see the merit but I agree with the others - RB2 WW fun is the best fun mid-season.
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Jul 28, 2015 16:41
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Gyshall posted:I'm actually working on an Effortpost OP for DFS, should have it up by the end of the week or so. That would be appreciated. Personally, I'm dropping some of my weekly leagues to focus more time on DFS this year, and a nice comparison of the different sites would be handy.
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Jul 28, 2015 16:41
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Parmesan Basil posted:A guy in my PPR keeper league proposed that we switch the RB2 slot into a flex slot due to the perceived lack of options there. I found it at least interesting to consider. Anyone else heard something like this in their teams? The guy running my work league proposed this as well. I feel like that just removes a lot of the fun and activity trying to find viable RBs on the WW. I think I convinced him not to do it. Plus, as mentioned, there are actually plenty of options available. The position isn't as barren or hopeless as some make it out to be.
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Jul 28, 2015 16:45
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Arctic Baldwin posted:n: had my first draft of the year yesterday and keep staring at my lineup When your RB2 goes down in the preason with a knee injury.
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Jul 28, 2015 16:57
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Doltos posted:I need a name for my team that involves JPP's finger but I'm coming up blank. Go see the Team Name thread for some inspiration.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:05
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Talk going around about Le'Veon Bell's suspension possibly being reduced to 1 or 2 games because the NFL is a loving nonsensical circus.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:06
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As someone who is pretty dead-set on waiting as long as possible on QBs, can anyone talk me out of drafting Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill? 4 point passing league. They are both underrated QBs from last year (#9 and #10 in QB ranking on ESPN standard leagues), both have more weapons than they did last year, and both are going well into the 100's. Manning now has a full year of Odel Beckham making one handed TD catches and Tannehill has his legs for an extra 40 to 60 rushing yards a game. I think the risk of either of them busting is well worth the ADP. Thoughts?
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Jul 28, 2015 17:18
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Prophecy120 posted:As someone who is pretty dead-set on waiting as long as possible on QBs, can anyone talk me out of drafting Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill? 4 point passing league.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:21
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Prophecy120 posted:As someone who is pretty dead-set on waiting as long as possible on QBs, can anyone talk me out of drafting Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill? 4 point passing league.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:36
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VDay posted:Talk going around about Le'Veon Bell's suspension possibly being reduced to 1 or 2 games because the NFL is a loving nonsensical circus. Apparently he's full speed at camp too.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:39
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Forever_Peace posted:"Hard Counting" A couple reasons: - I forgot exactly what kind of wideout Stills is, but remember that Tanny cannot accurately throw the long ball. He is esssentially a younger Alex Smith until he proves us differently. Roethlisberger made Mike Wallace a fantasy stud; in Miami he was worthless. If Stills is a burner, avoid. If he's more a possession receiver, then he has more potential. - He is not Miami's WR1. Jarvis Landry is. This could obviously change but that's what it is right now.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:39
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Prophecy120 posted:As someone who is pretty dead-set on waiting as long as possible on QBs, can anyone talk me out of drafting Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill? 4 point passing league. I would take Eli over Tanny with no qualms. Eli has a better deep ball.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:43
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Suave Fedora posted:I would take Eli over Tanny with no qualms. Eli has a better deep ball. Plus targets Cruz and ODBeast
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Jul 28, 2015 18:21
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Eli also has the every other year thing going on so he's probably in line for a decent year.
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Jul 28, 2015 18:23
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LmaoTheKid posted:Eli also has the every other year thing going on so he's probably in line for a decent year. By this logic, you have to avoid him, since he was decent last year.
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Jul 28, 2015 18:37
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Amergin posted:How many teams in the league? It's only ten players so I'm definitely not going to do it but it was an interesting question still.
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Jul 28, 2015 19:33
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Le'Veon suspension officially reduced to 2 games
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Jul 28, 2015 19:58
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Here's an interesting dilemma. I pick 9th overall, 0.5 PPR, and can keep two of these guys: - Jamaal Charles (1st round) - Martavis Bryant (8th Round) - Joseph Randle (8th Round) - Latavius Murray (8th Round) - Kelvin Benjamin (12th Round) - Travis Kelce (16th Round) I like Randle and Murray as they both have lots opportunity to be RB1 on their respective teams. Randle has the better O-line, but I see Murray as the more talented back, but, ugh, Raiders. Benjamin's value is also pretty exceptional, and I only put Kelce on the board there because the next two rounds after him are typically D/STs and Kickers, so it's about as good a value as I could ever hope for in a top-5 TE.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:00
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Benne posted:Le'Veon suspension officially reduced to 2 games That makes it palatable to take him 1.01 imo
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Jul 28, 2015 20:05
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Gearman posted:Here's an interesting dilemma. I pick 9th overall, 0.5 PPR, and can keep two of these guys: Charles and Bryant would be who I keep but kelce is very tempting
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Jul 28, 2015 20:06
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Gearman posted:Here's an interesting dilemma. I pick 9th overall, 0.5 PPR, and can keep two of these guys: Half ppr I think you gotta go Charles and Kelvin. I'd look pretty hard at Randle but Charles is probably the 1.1 after other teams declare their keepers (who doesn't keep Leveon?) and Kelvin is likely to go around 3rd/4th round. I don't trust Martavis and Murray has Helu to contend with for passing downs (where Helu is one of the best receiving backs in football). Randle at 8th could be huge value (he could be an RB1), but I'm not completely 100% convinced that Dallas doesn't bring in another RB at some point in the first few weeks (if not the preseason). I am pretty high on him though.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:16
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Gearman posted:Here's an interesting dilemma. I pick 9th overall, 0.5 PPR, and can keep two of these guys: Kelce should unquestionably be one of your two picks, assuming you have to start a TE in this league, as he is a 4th/5th round value and has huge upside. I like Charles as your other pick. Charles is a top 5 pick at the cost of 1.9, and assuming others are keeping their first round picks, you likely won't get a better RB1 (I'm guessing guys like CJ and Jeremy Hill are being kept at the cost of late round picks). While the value on Randle/Murray/KB are good, I'd rather lock down a top flight RB than go on value alone, as I find each has some warts that make me tend to avoid them in general. Randle may not be the guy in Dallas, Murray doesn't have the full trust/backing of his coaching staff and is an RB on the Raiders, and KB has some red flags too (showing up to training camp overweight, drop issues, etc.). I wouldn't hate taking Martavis at the cost of an 8th, though - PIT O is a solid bet this year, and a lot of people are really high on him this year. His ADP is steadily rising.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:17
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Some interesting things to consider here, thanks! I actually hadn't put much thought in to keeping Kelce because I typically wait on a TE and pick a guy in the bottom half of the top-ten and then a second TE near the end of the draft with lots of size and potential (hence the Kelce draft in round 16). I am really liking the idea of having a guy capable of putting up top-5 TE numbers in the 16th round for the next few years though. Funny enough, I actually DID trade away Le'Veon in my other league, at second round value no less! In my defense, it got me AJ Green, and second pick overall where either Lynch or Dez Bryant would be waiting for me. I'm pretty ok with a Le'Veon Bell for AJ Green + Dez Bryant/Marshawn Lynch trade.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:22
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yay, leveon bell's suspension was reduced to 2 games edit: lol sorry didn't see the post already saying this A Concrete Divider fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Jul 29, 2015 |
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Jul 28, 2015 20:23
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Cervixalot posted:Kelce should unquestionably be one of your two picks, assuming you have to start a TE in this league, as he is a 4th/5th round value and has huge upside. Yeah I was leaning that way too. To add a wrinkle in this, it's also a 2QB league, and I apparently also have two more eligible keepers (thought their keeper eligibility was up): - AJ Green (3rd Round) - Dez Bryant (4th Round) So I'm most likely going to have to go Jamaal Charles in the 1st, QB + QB in the 2nd and 3rd, and Dez in the 4th.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:29
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Gearman posted:Here's an interesting dilemma. I pick 9th overall, 0.5 PPR, and can keep two of these guys: Echoing others in that one of the two picks has to be Charles because it's going to be near impossible to secure another RB1. Benjamin would be the other keep imo because you're talking like 4th round value for a 12th rounder. Bryant comes close but isn't as much value and I don't see Randle taking the lion's share of the carries away from Dunbar.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:31
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Gearman posted:Here's an interesting dilemma. I pick 9th overall, 0.5 PPR, and can keep two of these guys: Kelce and Charles for me. Charles is arguably a #1 overall pick for half PPR. Kelce in the 16th is hilarious, especially if you can keep him at that price and he pans out the way everyone is predicting.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:33
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Metapod posted:That makes it palatable to take him 1.01 imo agreed
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Jul 28, 2015 20:39
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