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Just wanted to share this from Deadspin's Why Your Team Sucks Giants edition: "How many times do I have to watch Rueben Randle run a route out of bounds? It’s almost as if he is wearing a helmet specifically blinding his peripherals enough to not know where he is." 
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Jul 31, 2015 01:07
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VDay posted:I love the included tweet. Shaming people into not picking AP so that he drops to me is how I plan to win my leagues this year
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Jul 31, 2015 01:44
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Koth posted:How nervous should I/we be about drafting either Ingram or Spiller and having the Saints turn into a RBBC? The good news is: I can see both backs carving out a niche in that offense, a la Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Pretty much every Saints off-season move indicates more emphasis on the run. Two receiving targets in Graham and Stills are gone, and they acquired Unger and Peat as linemen. They also spent chunks of their very limited FA budget on Ingram and Spiller. Put it all together and I think a lot of those touches that went to Graham and Stills are going to Ingram and Spiller. Of the two, I like Spiller at his ADP more. I can just imagine the Saints going down by 14, reverting to form, and handing the ball to Brees to throw for the rest of the game. Enforka fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Jul 31, 2015 |
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Jul 31, 2015 01:58
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Shaming people into not picking AP so that he drops to me is how I plan to win my leagues this year
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Jul 31, 2015 02:00
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Varg posted:my brother is still so mad at him for ruining his season last year that he's going to seriously try to draft an entire team of white players this time to avoid the suspensions/arrests on his roster (he's not very good at this stuff anyway) Please post his team if he goes through with it
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Jul 31, 2015 02:06
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Shaming people into not picking AP so that he drops to me is how I plan to win my leagues this year Are you going to show people a picture of crying kids every time until it's your turn?
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Jul 31, 2015 02:15
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Varg posted:my brother is still so mad at him for ruining his season last year that he's going to seriously try to draft an entire team of white players this time to avoid the suspensions/arrests on his roster (he's not very good at this stuff anyway) Peyton Hillis, RB1
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Jul 31, 2015 02:17
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Varg posted:my brother is still so mad at him for ruining his season last year that he's going to seriously try to draft an entire team of white players this time to avoid the suspensions/arrests on his roster (he's not very good at this stuff anyway)
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Jul 31, 2015 02:22
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Round 1: Gronk Round 2: Jordy Nelson Round 3: Jimmy Graham (Depending on his views regarding individuals of mixed race) Round 4: Peyton Manning Round 5: Julian Edelman Round 6: Seattle DST (5th whitest city in America) Round 7: Stephen Gostkowski Round 8: Eric Decker Round 9: Danny Woodhead Round 10: Toby Gerhart Round 11: Peyton Hillis Round 12: Kyle Jusczyk Round 13: Chase Reynolds Round 14: Tyler Gaffney Round 15: Rex Burkhead
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Jul 31, 2015 02:35
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Has anyone actually tried the "Zero RB" strategy Rotoviz pimps? The more I read about it the more it makes sense for my BML and im leaning towards doing it
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Jul 31, 2015 02:52
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Metapod posted:Please post his team if he goes through with it I really miss Toby Gerhart for this sort of thing.
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Jul 31, 2015 03:11
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How could you leave out Riley Cooper and Bryan Hartline
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Jul 31, 2015 03:17
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the_american_dream posted:Has anyone actually tried the "Zero RB" strategy Rotoviz pimps? The more I read about it the more it makes sense for my BML and im leaning towards doing it Zero RB is basically the strategy I've been pimping for the last two pages where you focus on high quality WRs and fill out your RBs with promising breakout candidates. Rotoviz is different where the guys writing those zero RB strategy articles on that site advocate getting a top tier TE over a QB and picking up RBs that are either pass catching time sharers or backups on good offenses. I think getting a Gronk/Graham really depends on what the draft is doing, and I really dislike pass catching RBs as some weeks they just completely disappear even worse than when feature backs disappear. But to each their own.
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Jul 31, 2015 03:26
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the_american_dream posted:Has anyone actually tried the "Zero RB" strategy Rotoviz pimps? The more I read about it the more it makes sense for my BML and im leaning towards doing it I'm in a 12 team PPR which we can start 3 WR plus as Flex, and only 'required' to start 1 RB. At pick 3 I've been getting #1 A.Brown, #2 A. Jeffery, #3 Luck or Mike Evans in almost every draft so far. I'm basically forfeiting my RB slot to load up on QB, WR, TE and lottery ticket RB/WR players. My starting #1 RBs have tended to be Joique Bell or Andre Ellington.
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Jul 31, 2015 03:26
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the_american_dream posted:Has anyone actually tried the "Zero RB" strategy Rotoviz pimps? The more I read about it the more it makes sense for my BML and im leaning towards doing it Yes I almost won my league last year with it but jimmy graham got 0 points in the first playoff game 
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Jul 31, 2015 03:39
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Okay so this is my BML's first year that we are doing an auction draft. As far as I know none of the other players have done an auction draft in their other leagues and some definitely won't put in the time to figure out the auction draft beforehand so I want to try and exploit this. Are there any good tricks/strategies regarding nominations? The draft isn't for a few weeks so obviously a lot can change but does this sound like I am on the right track? Go cheap at QB since there are so many QBs clustered in the 2nd and 3rd tiers I should be able to get one for like 5 dollars (this is a 4pt TD league) Go cheap at TE unless Gronk is way undervalued because other than him Graham and Kelce it seems like there is a big logjam of okay TEs I would probably target someone like Walker for a few dollars. Go big and early on 2 RBs and 1 WR in tier 1 spending about 130-140 out of the 200 dollar pot. I figure I can try and jump early into the mix when people are tentative and can use this to gauge how the draft will go (ie people way overpaying or being conservative). I also plan on saving 10-15 dollars for my bench so I can snipe players when the draft starts to wind down and it becomes like a regular snake draft Does this sound like a reasonable game plan going in and then once it starts play it by ear. My big worry is being conservative in the beginning and ending up fighting over average/slightl above average players and ending up with a team without studs on it or anyone who can really carry the team. With these values it seems that I should put up QBs and TEs early and try and get people to burn money then hopefully snag a few RBs that are in the Forte/Foster/Anderson level after the big money Peterson/Lacy/Charles push goes over but before people start panicking when the tier 2 RBs start running out and a WR on Julios level with enough money to get some 2nd and 3rd tier WR/RB/Flexs. My big worry is if people are overpaying for top tier players and I end up fightinging over average/slightl above average players and ending up with a team without studs on it or anyone who can really carry the team. So am I going about this the right way or am I missing something big. Swarmin Swedes fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Jul 31, 2015 |
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Jul 31, 2015 03:54
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the_american_dream posted:Has anyone actually tried the "Zero RB" strategy Rotoviz pimps? The more I read about it the more it makes sense for my BML and im leaning towards doing it I went 9th last year (10 team, 0.5 PPR) and snagged DT and Dez, it was nice, but the clincher was trading for Lacy after he had a few down weeks. Lost by .5 in the championship to the guy who picked up Evans and ODB (dammit Demaryius catch a drat ball ) Not sure if I'll be doing it this year, too many stud WRs and even fewerer safe RB1s IMO. Bellmaker fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Jul 31, 2015 |
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Jul 31, 2015 04:09
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Swarmin Swedes posted:Okay so this is my BML's first year that we are doing an auction draft. As far as I know none of the other players have done an auction draft in their other leagues and some definitely won't put in the time to figure out the auction draft beforehand so I want to try and exploit this. Are there any good tricks/strategies regarding nominations? A+ your strategies look great. Nice job not being seduced by the idea that you personally can make everybody else "blow" their money early and then sweep in and land a bunch of studs. People are risk averse - most folks are going to be inclined to avoid spending big until they have information about what stud RBs go for. Similarly, because they are risk averse, most people are going to dramatically overpay for the last one or two players before a tier drop. So basically nominate your guys as early as possible during the draft - first overall if possible. That said, the one "rule" I didn't see you list was "avoid traffic". Of course that means avoiding bidding wars, but it also means trying to drive away competition that would otherwise be attracted to low bids. Empirically, people tend to more inclined to bid on low-anchor items (say $1) than an equivalent high-anchor item (say $25), and the final price is driven more by traffic (ie bidding wars) than initial price, so the low-anchor items tend to actually sell for more money in the psychology studies done on this. Unless your league is like 8 people, start your opening bids squarely on the far side of "steal" territory to prevent the bargain hunters from getting invested.
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Jul 31, 2015 04:42
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Bellmaker posted:I went 9th last year (10 team, 0.5 PPR) and snagged DT and Dez, it was nice, but the clincher was trading for Lacy after he had a few down weeks. Maybe im misunderstanding the concept but isnt this precisely the reason you do it? Hedging that everyone will cling to whatever viable RBs are available while you get all the wrs?
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Jul 31, 2015 04:47
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Forever_Peace posted:That said, the one "rule" I didn't see you list was "avoid traffic". Of course that means avoiding bidding wars, but it also means trying to drive away competition that would otherwise be attracted to low bids. Empirically, people tend to more inclined to bid on low-anchor items (say $1) than an equivalent high-anchor item (say $25), and the final price is driven more by traffic (ie bidding wars) than initial price, so the low-anchor items tend to actually sell for more money in the psychology studies done on this. Unless your league is like 8 people, start your opening bids squarely on the far side of "steal" territory to prevent the bargain hunters from getting invested. Thats actually a really good point, I had never thought about pushing out folks with a higher (but still low bid) because the mocks I have done do seem to have bidding wars quickly get out of hand. One thing I am going to be conscious of is trying to get at least a bid in on each player (as long as they stay below my range) so that it is tougher for people to figure out who I actually want because in this league people will absolutely try and gently caress each other over so I figure if I bid across the board up to a point that should negate some of that hopefully. Swarmin Swedes fucked around with this message at 04:58 on Jul 31, 2015 |
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Jul 31, 2015 04:54
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the_american_dream posted:Maybe im misunderstanding the concept but isnt this precisely the reason you do it? Hedging that everyone will cling to whatever viable RBs are available while you get all the wrs? It doesn't hurt, but that's more a side benefit of others' suboptimal decision-making. The real "reason" you do it is because your first pick is your most valuable, and so the Zero RB guys argue, you should pick the least risky and most stable investment. Historically the best investments have been elite WRs and TEs. On the other hand, RBs perform the worst at returning on your investment. Zero RB then goes one additional step further and says, hey, if RB is so inherently unpredictable, why not target certain high-upside situations (timeshares, handcuffs, waiver wire poaching) and just trade in chaos? You'll be sitting pretty with your less risky studs.
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Jul 31, 2015 05:16
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the_american_dream posted:Maybe im misunderstanding the concept but isnt this precisely the reason you do it? Hedging that everyone will cling to whatever viable RBs are available while you get all the wrs? Yes but if everyone does it go for the hbs
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Jul 31, 2015 05:57
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Metapod posted:Yes but if everyone does it go for the young hbs
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Jul 31, 2015 06:07
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quote:Browns RB Isaiah Crowell is already having "exchange problems" early in camp. Don't Draft Any Browns
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Jul 31, 2015 10:26
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what about antonio?
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Jul 31, 2015 12:46
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Benne posted:Don't Draft Any Browns Duke Johnson
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Jul 31, 2015 13:33
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I'm doing a league this year with a first time commissioner. His first year playing fantasy was last year and he's using some wacky scoring settings this year. I don't think anyone in the league knows enough to take advantage of it, so I might as well. The main change is in QB scoring. He changed the Yahoo default scoring to: 15 passing yards per point 7 points per TD Everything else is pretty minor. Obviously this means I do everything I can to target Luck or Rodgers in the first, right? If they are gone by my first pick, do I reach for Peyton/Wilson/etc?
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Jul 31, 2015 13:53
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RCarr posted:I'm doing a league this year with a first time commissioner. His first year playing fantasy was last year and he's using some wacky scoring settings this year. I don't think anyone in the league knows enough to take advantage of it, so I might as well. Considering that a 300 yard 2 TD game would give you 34 points, yeah, I could see going for that strategy.
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Jul 31, 2015 14:02
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Legarette Blount failed his conditioning test at camp yesterday, so now's your chance to use a late round flier on Jonas Grey or James White before their ADP jumps. That said, drafting a NE RB is never a good idea.
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Jul 31, 2015 14:14
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RCarr posted:I'm doing a league this year with a first time commissioner. His first year playing fantasy was last year and he's using some wacky scoring settings this year. I don't think anyone in the league knows enough to take advantage of it, so I might as well. That's... actually kind of unclear. If you think about it, he's elevating the point value of ALL QBs, and spreading out the ranks a little bit more than they would be otherwise. That means that a good QB is going to toss up 500 pts in a season (lol), but an average QB might still post 400. So the positional advantage may not actually be that huge if you take an early QB here. Here's the VORP using a Beer-like definition of "replacement-level player" in a 10-team league with your scoring settings:  Compared to RB and WR for ESPN standard (still using "Beer-like" replacement level players for 10-team standard):   (all using today's projections) Whoever has the better quarterback each week is probably going to win the week, but aside from Luck and Rodgers in the first, it's not so clear that we know right now who the "better" quarterback is likely to be week-in and week-out. There might just be some weeks where Eli or Big Ben go supernova, or hell maybe even a week where Bradford outscores Peyton (lol battle of the hosed knees). If it were me, I MAY consider trying to pick up two or even three mid/late-round quarterbacks in a league like this so I can platoon to maximize the chances of a breakout player and to play the matchups each week. That is, if I couldn't pick up Luck or Rodgers in the 1st (Luck is probably worth a 1st overall pick in this league). Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Jul 31, 2015 |
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Jul 31, 2015 15:03
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I've never taken a 1st round QB in my 8 years of playing but sitting at 7 this year if Rodgers is there I may have to bite with Hill and Bryant (PIT) in my pocket. Luck is a keeper for someone this year (final year in his contract). 6 pts passing and a 5 point bonus at 320yds.
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Jul 31, 2015 15:07
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So I'm choosing between two keepers this year. I'm drafting 1st in a snake draft (standard scoring) and have either: Antonio Brown, 3rd round (start of the 3rd) Luck, 4th round (end of the 4th) I've been pretty set on Luck but all this talk of elite WR consistency and QB depth has made me less sure. Keeping Brown and picking up say Tanny or Dalton later seems bold but is it stupid bold or smart bold?
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Jul 31, 2015 15:37
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RCarr posted:I'm doing a league this year with a first time commissioner. His first year playing fantasy was last year and he's using some wacky scoring settings this year. I don't think anyone in the league knows enough to take advantage of it, so I might as well. About 5 years ago my work did its first fantasy football league with similar settings, only it was 8 points per td. Let me tell you right now that QB's won or lost that league the first year. I absolutely say draft Rodgers/Luck early.
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Jul 31, 2015 15:41
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Ty1990 posted:Please stop. Shady is an elite running back and really fun to watch. This from a realistic Eagles fan. He was, at one point. You're kidding yourself if you think the combination of <Whatever QB Buffalo will be running out there> and Greg Roman is anything but bad news for Shady in Buffalo. He couldn't get it done last year on 300+ behind a good offensive line, why will he be worth a top pick behind a much worse offensive line? So many red flags on him. Again, talking Fantasy here. In real life, I loved Shady as a back. Exciting to watch, etc. the_american_dream posted:Has anyone actually tried the "Zero RB" strategy Rotoviz pimps? The more I read about it the more it makes sense for my BML and im leaning towards doing it Also known as "upside down" drafting, nothing new - Rotoviz didn't invent it. I'd say it really depends on your league. If you play in a 10 or 12 team league and it is PPR, you can probably pull this off pretty well. If you play with sharks, it really depends. I play in one league where passing touchdowns are worth 6 points, so it makes Quarterback much more valuable. Starting off going Gronk/Dez/DT/Calvin and then grabbing Rodgers is pretty sweet, but you need to be sure you pick up and identify backs with good upside. You don't want Bishop Sankey as your RB1, no matter how good the rest of your team is. Also I think this strategy is much easier to do if you pick towards the turn (1 or 10/12) since you can snap off back to back picks to grab two RBs back to back. Gyshall fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Jul 31, 2015 |
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Jul 31, 2015 16:26
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Gyshall posted:He was, at one point. You're kidding yourself if you think the combination of <Whatever QB Buffalo will be running out there> and Greg Roman is anything but bad news for Shady in Buffalo. He couldn't get it done last year on 300+ behind a good offensive line, why will he be worth a top pick behind a much worse offensive line? So many red flags on him. Tyrod is going to run wild 
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Jul 31, 2015 16:35
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Gyshall posted:He was, at one point. You're kidding yourself if you think the combination of <Whatever QB Buffalo will be running out there> and Greg Roman is anything but bad news for Shady in Buffalo. He couldn't get it done last year on 300+ behind a good offensive line, why will he be worth a top pick behind a much worse offensive line? So many red flags on him. I would agree that he's less than an ideal fit in Buffalo but remember the part of the season in which he struggled the most, the first month and a half, the offensive line was in loving shambles. No Lane, no Kelce, no Mathis. For the record, I was not heartbroken when he was traded but I do think he'll get 1,200-1,300 and 8-9 next year in Buffalo on volume alone. I think Murray will put up about that same line here fwiw.
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Jul 31, 2015 16:36
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Gyshall posted:He was, at one point. You're kidding yourself if you think the combination of <Whatever QB Buffalo will be running out there> and Greg Roman is anything but bad news for Shady in Buffalo. He couldn't get it done last year on 300+ behind a good offensive line, why will he be worth a top pick behind a much worse offensive line? So many red flags on him. He got 1300 yards and 5 rushing TDs last year. The TDs are what sunk him, and TDs in fantasy are mostly up to luck/scheme. Greg Roman is bad news for Shady in Buffalo? Did you see how he used Gore in San Francisco? McCoy is going to get a metric poo poo ton of touches between the ground and passing attack and that usage alone is worth a top pick. If it doesn't work out it doesn't work out, but it's not like picking Shady in the first is ridiculous.
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Jul 31, 2015 17:01
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Doltos posted:Did you see how he used Gore in San Francisco? Yeah, he destroyed all of Gore's PPR value. McCoy is not as good between the tackles as he is a pass catching back, so you've got to bet (again) on touchdowns for McCoys value. With no threat of a passing attack, you're going to see lots of this:  Not something I'm betting on this season - the Bills might have a ground and pound mentality, but it isn't something to get excited alone on. e: McCoy finished RB11 last year, and RB17 in Fantasy Points Per Game, arguably in a more favorable system with better talent. I don't see him as a first round pick when there are better RB/WR to pick ahead of him, doubly so in PPR leagues. doubledit: I'm also staying away from Murray this year, only because Mathews and Sproles are still going to get touches. Gyshall fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Jul 31, 2015 |
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Jul 31, 2015 17:23
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You have some good thoughts here. Two things I'll advise. One, once you have your settings in place, talk to B4TBG about his beersheets. That'll give you a baseline on values. Second, I've noticed a trend in my last few auctions that people actually tend to let the first couple of players go for a lot cheaper then their relative positional value. I think the logic is that, even though they like that guy, they have a couple guys they also like, and want to avoid a bidding war. If you are the first person to put someone up, don't be afraid to target who you like.
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Jul 31, 2015 17:49
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Sataere posted:You have some good thoughts here. Two things I'll advise. One, once you have your settings in place, talk to B4TBG about his beersheets. That'll give you a baseline on values. Second, I've noticed a trend in my last few auctions that people actually tend to let the first couple of players go for a lot cheaper then their relative positional value. I think the logic is that, even though they like that guy, they have a couple guys they also like, and want to avoid a bidding war. If you are the first person to put someone up, don't be afraid to target who you like. I am absolutely setting my baseline values for my draft off of B4TBG, I have used them the last two years and have finished 3rd both years (terrible playoff luck). I nominate 3rd but I am definitely looking to see if people are tentative and conservative to see if I can snag a top RB like Charles I just know his average ADP/Auction bid is significantly higher than Beersheets or what I am looking to spend. If they are being conservative I will try and sneak in one of my guys but if not I think I am putting up a QB and getting someone to burn money on Peyton Manning (who I want nothing to do with this year) or Russell Wilson.
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Jul 31, 2015 18:07
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