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Swarmin Swedes posted:I am absolutely setting my baseline values for my draft off of B4TBG, I have used them the last two years and have finished 3rd both years (terrible playoff luck). I tend to always wait a while when making my bids. I only select people I don't want, but who I know are popular. I've noticed the guy with an almost full bankroll who waits for 75% of the league to blow their cash always ends up with ridiculous depth.
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Jul 31, 2015 18:42
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Cervixalot posted:Legarette Blount failed his conditioning test at camp yesterday, so now's your chance to use a late round flier on Jonas Grey or James White before their ADP jumps. If there's one source of news I trust above all others, it's a Patriots medical report
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Jul 31, 2015 18:50
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Gyshall posted:
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Jul 31, 2015 18:55
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Papes posted:Upside down drafting and 0rb are not the same and I don't get why this gets repeated everywhere. What is different about the two? 0 RB you're still leaving your draft with Running Backs.
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Jul 31, 2015 19:11
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Gyshall posted:What is different about the two? 0 RB you're still leaving your draft with Running Backs. Upside down is based on the premise that you can extract value from the draft by drafting differently than your opponents...zig when they zag. If wr in the first round became the conventional thing to do, upside down drafting would dictate you drafting a rb early. 0rb is based around being anti-fragile. Elite wrs have shown to have less year to year variance and are less likely to be injured than elite rbs. Wrs are a safer position so you should draft them early when draft capital carries so much opportunity cost. Later round picks can bust without ruining your team so you wait to take rbs so your team is less susceptible to variance.
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Jul 31, 2015 19:25
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I want fantasy to be here NOW. God drat it, I have the bug again.
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Jul 31, 2015 19:26
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I want to join a dynasty league. Is anyone thinking of setting up a new goon dynasty league? Something maybe in the 12-14 team range?
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Jul 31, 2015 19:38
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Papes posted:Upside down is based on the premise that you can extract value from the draft by drafting differently than your opponents...zig when they zag. If wr in the first round became the conventional thing to do, upside down drafting would dictate you drafting a rb early. so it sounds like I can have an Upside Down Draft that is 0 rb but not a 0 RB draft that is upside down? Two sides of the same coin.
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Jul 31, 2015 19:44
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Leperflesh posted:I want to join a dynasty league. Is anyone thinking of setting up a new goon dynasty league? Something maybe in the 12-14 team range? I'd be down for one more dynasty league as well if it didn't have kickers or dst.
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Jul 31, 2015 19:50
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Forever_Peace posted:I'd be down for one more dynasty league as well if it didn't have kickers or dst. I too would be down
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Jul 31, 2015 19:53
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Forever_Peace posted:I'd be down for one more dynasty league as well if it didn't have kickers or dst. Also in if we're doing auction and FAAB
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Jul 31, 2015 20:04
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Gyshall posted:Also in if we're doing auction and FAAB I was trying to cut down on my leagues this year, but that is seeming more and more unlikely as the season gets closer. I'd probably join too.
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Jul 31, 2015 20:06
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Gyshall posted:Yeah, he destroyed all of Gore's PPR value. McCoy is not as good between the tackles as he is a pass catching back, so you've got to bet (again) on touchdowns for McCoys value. With no threat of a passing attack, you're going to see lots of this: What's wrong with running counter plays? They work great in offenses where o-line can move. And people like to talk a lot of poo poo about the Bill's o-line but they seem to produce good rushers. Last year they helped produce 2.3k rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs, and that's with Spiller, who's a worse back than McCoy, and FJax, who is a one cut runner. Again McCoy only finished so low due to the 5 TDs, which is the only time he scored less than 9 TDs in a year barring his rookie season when he wasn't used and in that one season where he was injured for 4 games. I'm sorry but this dude is going to get an absurd amount of touches if he stays healthy and is in one of the best positions to be the highest used RB this year. Even if he was a flaming pile of trash, a 350 touch RB, which is totally realistic in a Rex Ryan ran system coupled with Greg Roman as the OC, is good enough for reliable fantasy value. He'll probably finish way higher than RB11 and RB17 out of all fantasy points, which isn't that much to scoff at either considering he only put up 5 TDs.
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Jul 31, 2015 20:43
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Doltos posted:What's wrong with running counter plays? They work great in offenses where o-line can move. And people like to talk a lot of poo poo about the Bill's o-line but they seem to produce good rushers. Last year they helped produce 2.3k rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs, and that's with Spiller, who's a worse back than McCoy, and FJax, who is a one cut runner. Watch that gif again. Instead of going through the hole blocked for him, he bounces to the outside and ends up out of bounds. Just one example, but watching him last year was extremely frustrating - he did this often. Also - the offensive line coach in Buffalo is gone now - they just hired a new guy today - Pat Meyer, who coached in Chicago. Add that to almost the entire coaching turning over, is that really where you want to invest a first round pick in? Even a second round? Guaranteed touches do not equal production, and doubly so when you talk about touchdown projections. Is the Rex Ryan/Greg Roman offense really going to be more productive than the Chip Kelly offense? I'm having trouble accepting your analysis when you're comparing McCoy's past production in different offense and offensive schemes versus a team with a brand new scheme and offense, among other red flags. Last year, McCoy had 340 carries, a bit short of what you're projecting, so he would absolutely need to score more than 5 TDs to be higher than RB11. I'd rather have a back or receiver in a proven scheme/system with a high powered offense rather than waste a first or second round pick on McCoy. I look at McCoy's change as thus: Positives - Lead back with almost little to no competition - Run heavy, high run volume offense - Explosive talent Negatives - FJax will almost certainly still be on the roster come opening day (Bills Ownership has made sure as much.) - Lower expected catches in PPR Leagues due to Roman - No Quarterback to stay competitive in games (  KYLE ORTON)- Offensive line has had turnover, two spots still up for competition, also starting a rookie and Richie Incognito at guard - New offensive system for the team - Change from high play volume offense to a slower, lower play volume offense Here is a list of guys I have ranked higher than McCoy based on opportunity and situation: code:Also this goes for the entire Bills offense this year. Also, I can only imagine this trend continues: 
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Jul 31, 2015 21:39
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Gyshall posted:- No Quarterback to stay competitive in games ( Metapod posted:Tyrod is going to run wild
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Jul 31, 2015 21:42
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Even a megazord constructed of all the QBs on the Bills roster wouldn't be enough to make that offense good, I'm sorry Metapod. looking forward to watching the Bills Defense win them games 3-9 this year
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Jul 31, 2015 21:46
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Forever_Peace posted:I'd be down for one more dynasty league as well if it didn't have kickers or dst. Metapod posted:I too would be down Gyshall posted:Also in if we're doing auction and FAAB Cervixalot posted:I was trying to cut down on my leagues this year, but that is seeming more and more unlikely as the season gets closer. I'd probably join too. So, an auction style dynasty league with no kickers. Can we do IDP? I did an IDP-only league last year and it was hella fun. Dynasty IDP sounds interesting. FAAB was kind of stupid in the IDP-only league, which is the only time I've used it, but maybe it works out better in a standard auction league? I'm open to it. Do you guys want a paid league, or just for funsies?
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Jul 31, 2015 21:47
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Leperflesh posted:So, an auction style dynasty league with no kickers. Can we do IDP? I did an IDP-only league last year and it was hella fun. Dynasty IDP sounds interesting. Needs to be paid imo, also I'd be curious to hammer out some other rules and whatnot to keep it interesting. also down for IDP
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Jul 31, 2015 21:58
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Eh, not a good year for me personally to dive into idp, but it sounds cool and I'm sure you'd be able to fill such a league full of goons no problem.
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Jul 31, 2015 22:12
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Leperflesh posted:So, an auction style dynasty league with no kickers. Can we do IDP? I did an IDP-only league last year and it was hella fun. Dynasty IDP sounds interesting. Idp only dynasty sounds baller as gently caress
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Jul 31, 2015 22:14
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Next week of BeerSheets is up, now with custom requests.RCarr posted:I'm doing a league this year with a first time commissioner. His first year playing fantasy was last year and he's using some wacky scoring settings this year. I don't think anyone in the league knows enough to take advantage of it, so I might as well. In a 12 team, 0PPR, 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE league with passing TDs worth 7 points and passing yards worth 0.066 each Andrew Luck is the number one overall pick (10.9 PPG). Aaron Rodgers is the #2 (8.9 PPG). Peyton Manning is a 2nd round pick (6.0 PPG), equivalent to Matt Forte.
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Jul 31, 2015 22:21
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Didn't mean to suggest IDP-only Dynasty, sorry. That does sound pretty crazy but I don't want to make a multi-year commitment to it. Is $50 a pretty typical buy-in for a dynasty fantasy football league? Also, of the various loving terrible choices, I find ESPN to be the least terrible fantasy football interface to live with. I don't think I can tolerate Yahoo again. Should I just make a thread?
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Jul 31, 2015 22:43
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Leperflesh posted:Didn't mean to suggest IDP-only Dynasty, sorry. That does sound pretty crazy but I don't want to make a multi-year commitment to it. You should make a thread and $20-30 should be the buy in imo
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Jul 31, 2015 22:57
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quote:Coach Jim Caldwell offered no timetable for Joique Bell's (knee, Achilles') return at Lions camp Friday. Abdullahs ADP is going to get INSANE within a few weeks
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Jul 31, 2015 23:12
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drizzle posted:Abdullahs ADP is going to get INSANE within a few weeks Which is a shame, I was really hoping his ADP would stay depressed until the draft. Same for Devonta Freeman.
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Jul 31, 2015 23:29
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Leperflesh posted:Didn't mean to suggest IDP-only Dynasty, sorry. That does sound pretty crazy but I don't want to make a multi-year commitment to it. Uh, I'd also like to express my fondness for that particular league.
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Aug 1, 2015 00:01
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New league recruitment thread is up: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3734106
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Aug 1, 2015 00:08
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When do ESPN leagues determine draft order? Upon league filling or a predetermined time before the draft?
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Aug 1, 2015 01:56
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They have different options, but it's usually when you set the draft date/type. You can also just change it at any time before the draft starts. Their random draft order option generates it an hour before the draft starts. If you want to do random order earlier than that though they just have a "Randomize Order" button in the GM options that you can press any time before the draft. That's what I do because I like having a couple of days to plan my strategy based on where I'm drafting.
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Aug 1, 2015 03:52
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drizzle posted:Abdullahs ADP is going to get INSANE within a few weeks Theo Riddick (vindiesel.jpg) is also a good value in that offense currently... He could get a ton of passing work there.
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Aug 1, 2015 05:13
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Gyshall posted:Watch that gif again. Instead of going through the hole blocked for him, he bounces to the outside and ends up out of bounds. Just one example, but watching him last year was extremely frustrating - he did this often. Uh, you should actually watch that gif again. The TE and the two WR's sealing the inside block means it was designed to run off the 8 gap. He actually hit the correct hole in that .gif and produced good yards out of it, and I believe he thrashed the Giants twice last year so he was obviously having good games in those gifs, but even if I concede that he bounced to the outside too early it's still just one play you're pulling out to prove your point. Chip Kelly also loves sending his RBs after corners to tire them out. It's like his calling card, so I believe that was the intentional hole. Coaches also change their play calling all the time, and I'd say it's more often to due to the personnel they have. Even at the high school level coaches adjust to who they have. In this instance, Greg Roman had Vernon Davis for the middle routes and a popgun offense for Kaepernick which means the HB is either staying in to block or the WR's are getting deep routes on passing downs. That will naturally lead to backs having lower PPR. Now I'm not sure what's going to happen to the Bills. They're trotting Matt Cassel out there with a pretty good young receiving corps in Watkins/Woods/Harvin. However, they don't have a TE. While I believe Harvin will take some underneath routes away from McCoy, Woods is a sideline/midfield guy and Watkins is a deep route/quick hit guy. That means the short and underneath routes are going to be split between an underwhelming Charles Clay, a pretty good Percy Harvin, and McCoy/FJax. It's not the ideal PPR situation, but he's still going to get looks, AND Matt Cassel is captain checkdown. EJ Manuel too, when he comes in. That's all I'm arguing for. McCoy's a super high usage guy and I think he'll produce no matter what and could be considered a good first round pick. Your list of guys ahead of McCoy is a bit weak. Hill is in a timeshare, Bernard is sure to sap his touches. Forsett is due for a regression, most of his success was due to teams not gameplanning for him, rightfully. You put DeAndre Hopkins ahead of McCoy? Really? A WR that has Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett throwing to him? If I posted in here tomorrow saying someone is offering me Hopkins for McCoy people would laugh. Like come on, you have to admit you're going overboard on this. Doltos fucked around with this message at 08:03 on Aug 1, 2015 |
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Aug 1, 2015 08:00
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Doltos posted:Forsett is due for a regression, most of his success was due to teams not gameplanning for him, rightfully. I'd say his regression is going to be more due to the lack of Kubiak
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Aug 1, 2015 08:31
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Beer4TheBeerGod, your beer sheets won me 1st place in my first ever fantasy football league last year. Thanks! I could have sworn there was a way/sheet that flat out ranked players based on ADP and value regardless of position. That made setting up pre-draft rankings a no-brainer. Was that something you do, or did I get that somewhere else?
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Aug 1, 2015 16:20
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Gyshall posted:Watch that gif again. Instead of going through the hole blocked for him, he bounces to the outside and ends up out of bounds. Just one example, but watching him last year was extremely frustrating - he did this often. That plan looks like a planned counter to me. (from QB perspective) QB fakes left, switches ball to the right, McCoy takes his fake step left before turning right and heads straight to the 8 hole. Even the RG blocks away from the 8 once he meets the MLB. e: already beaten it seems - not that it should shake up the negative analysis, but Richie Incognito was a Pro Bowler in his time with the Dolphins. I think you just threw him out there for the shock value of his name. - You listed Joique Bell instead of Leveon Bell at third Suave Fedora fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Aug 1, 2015 |
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Aug 1, 2015 17:14
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PyroDwarf posted:Beer4TheBeerGod, your beer sheets won me 1st place in my first ever fantasy football league last year. Thanks! I could have sworn there was a way/sheet that flat out ranked players based on ADP and value regardless of position. That made setting up pre-draft rankings a no-brainer. Was that something you do, or did I get that somewhere else? BeerSheets are pretty much all I do. That said the sheet is designed to let you compare value across positions. What I do is run through the sheet and note what round I might want to go for players I do or don't want.
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Aug 1, 2015 19:40
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Is there a good in-season lineup management site for fantasy football. The last couple years i've been subscribing to football guys and I love it since I can customize it to my leagues' settings. However i'm a little short on money this year and I don't know if I want to shell out $30 since BeerSheets are free (and rock) and fantasy pros can kind of help me with lineups and the waiver wire. Is there something out there you guys know of that's a little cheaper but as customizable/nearly customizable as football guys?
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Aug 1, 2015 22:28
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is there any interest in a toxx-based league where participants are chosen by toxx promises, winners get immunity from toxx in the following season, and losers (e.g. last place in the league) has to carry out his toxx promise? I would be willing to start one up.
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Aug 1, 2015 23:53
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So my 12-team league decided to change the rules up this year. Adding 1 point PPR and adding a SuperFlex position (QB,RB,WR,TE). Am I right in assuming I should treat this like a 2-QB league? Any general advise for picking at #4 in this league?
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Aug 2, 2015 02:57
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Gandalf21 posted:So my 12-team league decided to change the rules up this year. Adding 1 point PPR and adding a SuperFlex position (QB,RB,WR,TE). Am I right in assuming I should treat this like a 2-QB league? Any general advise for picking at #4 in this league? Treat it as a 2-QB league. Get Luck or Rodgers if they're there. If they aren't, get Bell or Charles. If you don't get Luck or Rodgers at 4 look at a QB in round two.
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Aug 2, 2015 03:13
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MakaVillian posted:Is there a good in-season lineup management site for fantasy football. The last couple years i've been subscribing to football guys and I love it since I can customize it to my leagues' settings. However i'm a little short on money this year and I don't know if I want to shell out $30 since BeerSheets are free (and rock) and fantasy pros can kind of help me with lineups and the waiver wire. I used fantasy pros for lineup management last year and it was useful for me. You mentioned them in your post though so you could be looking for something more in-depth. Shameful requote: timmmmaaaah posted:So I'm choosing between two keepers this year. I'm drafting 1st in a snake draft (standard scoring) and have either:
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Aug 2, 2015 03:37
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