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timmmmaaaah posted:
I'd personally keep Brown here.
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Aug 2, 2015 03:48
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timmmmaaaah posted:I used fantasy pros for lineup management last year and it was useful for me. You mentioned them in your post though so you could be looking for something more in-depth. Yeah the more I think about it the more I'm leaning towards the fantasy pro route, thanks. As for you I'd keep Brown, that's great value for a guy who's ADP is in the top half of the first round.
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Aug 2, 2015 04:35
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timmmmaaaah posted:Shameful requote: Antonio Brown is a first rounder. Andrew Luck is a late second / early third. Keep Brown.
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Aug 2, 2015 04:42
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timmmmaaaah posted:So I'm choosing between two keepers this year. I'm drafting 1st in a snake draft (standard scoring) and have either:
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Aug 2, 2015 04:53
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There are cases to made for Luck. Antonio Brown's Target/Reception rate was absurd last year. 181 targets on which he produced a league leading 129 receptions.. He also benefited from having 13 TDs, which is 5 more than his previous career high. Those extra 30 points and the 129 receptions helped put him as the top tier WR in the fantasy league. All stellar numbers, all which seem like they won't repeat. Like come on, 129 receptions as the #1 option on a team? That's bound to get locked down next year. Happened to Calvin Johnson in 2012 when he put up 122 receptions on 204 targets, his career best, then watched that tumble to 84 on 156 targets and 71 on 128 targets the next two years. A.J. Green? 98 receptions on 178 targets down to 69 receptions on 117 targets. Yes he missed three games last year and was a decoy in another, but he still dudded. Even with the more stable guys like Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne, their reception totals never really matched their career highs. They were close, but they never significantly jumped or got anywhere near 129 receptions. And even if Antonio Brown was the #1 WR with the best statline, and even if he replicates it, he still put up 98 less points than Andrew Luck did last season. Andrew Luck's offense got significantly better, and he put up 40 TDs/4.7k yards on only 61% completion. That's nuts. Those numbers might be as unrepeatable as Antonio Brown's, but Luck is still as young as Brown and could potentially have the most usage out of any QB this season. I think there's enough top tier WRs that Brown is replaceable with a Cobb/Nelson/ODB/Jones/Maclin without as much drop off as a Luck compared to an Eli Manning/Ryan/Romo/Tannehill starter. Doltos fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Aug 2, 2015 |
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Aug 2, 2015 06:53
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14 teams, 0ppr, standard, 2kickers, d/st only scores punts&kick returns Behold, a terrible draft. Kickers are vital in this league and everyone was basically trash by that point. I will perhaps drink less next time. Beersheeted my first 6 picks though, thanks dawg. Two TEs because why the gently caress not I have no idea if either of them are even starting at this point. Team: OH THE HUMANITY  12 Matt Forte, Chi RB 17 Jeremy Hill, Cin RB 40 Lamar Miller, Mia RB 45 Mike Evans, TB WR 68 Golden Tate, Det WR 73 Cam Newton, Car QB 96 Steven Hauschka, Sea K 101 Justin Tucker, Bal K 124 Ryan Mathews, Phi RB 129 Brandon LaFell*, NE WR 152 Richard Rodgers, GB TE 157 Vernon Davis, SF TE 180 Patriots D/ST D/ST 185 Brian Quick, StL WR
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Aug 2, 2015 07:12
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Why would you draft kickers, even in a 2 kicker league?
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Aug 2, 2015 07:15
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What in the gently caress? 2 kickers in a 14-team league? That's 28 out of the entire NFL's compliment of 32 starting kickers!Doltos posted:Why would you draft kickers, even in a 2 kicker league? I guess because if you don't, you'll have a total of six kickers to try to steam all season?
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Aug 2, 2015 07:16
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Doltos posted:Why would you draft kickers, even in a 2 kicker league? Because 28 kickers are on rosters at any one time and kickers get you a shitload of points when you have two of them. Also, for some reason, some guys in this league like to roster 3. This is a league of IRL friends so I am positive the commish made these rules just to incite hatred. This is my 4th year in the league, and the number of teams change every year..but the kickers never do..... 3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 07:53 on Aug 2, 2015 |
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Aug 2, 2015 07:48
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No you're right. Using a 7th round pick on a kicker was a great move. Edit: AND an 8th holy poo poo
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Aug 2, 2015 17:16
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Doltos posted:There are cases to made for Luck. QBs going around the beginning of the 5th (via Fantasypros) are Brees/Roethlisberger/Manning. Luck outscored Manning by 29, Roethlisberger by 41, and Brees by 46. WRs being selected around beginning of the 3rd are Sanders/Hilton/Evans/Hopkins. Brown outscored Sanders, the best of these guys last year, by 59 points. Hilton was outscored by 79, and Evans by 83. Now, to be fair, most of those WRs are young and could have a jump in production, and the QBs are older and could drop off. But even so, picking and choosing who will make the jump and who will fall off is not an easy thing to do. Before looking up the numbers for this post, I thought it was Brown was the right choice, but you could go either way. Now I think it's Brown hands down.
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Aug 2, 2015 17:47
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Time to throw cold water on the Martavis Bryant hype trainquote:Appearing on Sirius XM Radio, Ben Roethlisberger stated that Markus Wheaton will be the Steelers' No. 2 wide receiver this season and predicted Wheaton will be Pittsburgh's "breakout player."
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Aug 2, 2015 18:29
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Hrm maybe I'll just keep Ellington after all... Or Ben for a 10th?
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Aug 2, 2015 19:28
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RCarr posted:No you're right. Using a 7th round pick on a kicker was a great move. It's a bad draft full of bad people. I get kickers when the kickers go. It's not a goon draft so it's not necessary to be smart about the draft! Don't forget, I am better than you, mister Tier B. I hope it hurts. \(^.^)\ <(^.~)> /(^.^)/ I'm just kidding, that draft is really really really really stupidly bad e: added a few more reallys 3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Aug 2, 2015 |
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Aug 2, 2015 21:02
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Leperflesh posted:I guess because if you don't, you'll have a total of six kickers to try to steam all season? Or it'll be like Blounts (12 team 1 qb) where multiple teams have 4+ qbs just to stop people having a backup
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Aug 2, 2015 22:43
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For the leaguenI'm commissioner of, I made every owner a likeness in wwe 2k14, and we will determine draft position with a computerized royal rumble For my main league, we're having a destination auction in Lake Tahoe, ca/nv, as it is our 15th season
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Aug 2, 2015 22:56
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Azhais posted:Or it'll be like Blounts (12 team 1 qb) where multiple teams have 4+ qbs just to stop people having a backup Excuse me, I have Ryan Mallet as a backup and Tim Tebow on speed dial 
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Aug 2, 2015 23:02
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The commish of the 2 kicker league always does some form of gambling or drinking to decide. Two years ago, it was roulette (black or red) and horse racing. Last year we had to chug beers (from a bottle, no shotguns) and losers had a multiplier between .5-.9 seconds. This year was blackjack; highest hand gets the better pick, with ties broken by high cards. I busted so I had 12th. Sacko is always 1st and champ is always last.
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Aug 2, 2015 23:04
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old dog child posted:Sacko is always 1st and champ is always last. This isn't really a reward for the last-place team. Going first in a snake draft sucks badly unless you're a dynasty team that needs one and only one good replacement player. In any normal draft scenario I'd far rather go fourth than first.
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Aug 3, 2015 00:25
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Leperflesh posted:This isn't really a reward for the last-place team. Going first in a snake draft sucks badly unless you're a dynasty team that needs one and only one good replacement player. Oh, definitely. It's a perceived reward for the less informed. I'd rather have middle to late than first since I feel like it gives me a more balanced team (versus one that has a a couple stellar studs surrounded by poo poo). I haven't done any math to back this up though, so don't quote me on that. 3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Aug 3, 2015 |
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Aug 3, 2015 00:58
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Swarmin Swedes posted:Okay so this is my BML's first year that we are doing an auction draft. As far as I know none of the other players have done an auction draft in their other leagues and some definitely won't put in the time to figure out the auction draft beforehand so I want to try and exploit this. Are there any good tricks/strategies regarding nominations? Yes this is good. Also sort your players by tier, so that if a tier is drying up you'll know to bid a few extra dollars on a guy.
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Aug 3, 2015 02:48
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Swarmin Swedes posted:Okay so this is my BML's first year that we are doing an auction draft. As far as I know none of the other players have done an auction draft in their other leagues and some definitely won't put in the time to figure out the auction draft beforehand so I want to try and exploit this. Are there any good tricks/strategies regarding nominations? A few thoughts: 1. Hunt around for all common sources of auction values (ESPN, FantasyPros, etc). Use that as a guide to see what other lazy people will be doing. 2. Use a BeerSheet. They include a range of values and might give you insight that will allow you to exploit what the other people are using. 3. Typically auctions have three phases. The initial phase when people are skittish, the main phase when everybody blows their wads, and the cleanup phase. Try to get the players you want before people get aggressive with bidding once they know the value of things, then use the aggressive phase to get people to overbid on players you don't want. 4. People psychologically are more inclined to bid on a player they've already bid on. Cut out the folks who will dabble by being aggressive with your opener. If Jamaal Charles is worth $55, bid $40. 5. Don't feel compelled to wait to bid on things like the Seattle DST or Gostkowski. Drop an opening bid of a dollar on them early. Worst case scenario someone overpays for a kicker. Best case scenario you got the top ranked DST and kicker for a dollar. 6. Auction drafting is about achieving maximum value for the players you intend to start. It's important to have bench depth, but money spent on your bench is money you ideally won't be playing. 7. The major difference between auction and redraft is the opportunity cost. People tend to avoid elite QBs and TEs in redraft because they lose the opportunity to pick up a better WR or RB. In auction you can do both. Personally I might be inclined to pick up a stud QB because I know I can still pick up a stud player of a different position if necessary, and stud QBs and TEs are by far the most reliable source of points for their position. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Aug 3, 2015 |
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Aug 3, 2015 03:15
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Enforka posted:The point about regression to the mean on targets and receptions is well taken, but you start losing me in the last two paragraphs here. It's not really fair to compare production across positions, because value comes from outperforming people AT a given position. Roethlisberger also scored more points than Antonio Brown, but no one is drafting him in the first. The question here is: How much more valuable is Antonio Brown than the pick you are giving up at the start of the 3rd round? And how much more valuable is Luck than the player you'd get at the start of round 5? The easiest way to eyeball this is to compare who you'd take using those picks that plays the same position. I agree that Brown to the third round WRs is a bigger drop off, but where are you getting these outscored point totals for QBs? In Yahoo standard scoring, Luck outscored Manning 518.35 points to 464.95. Roethlisberger clocked in at 464.70 and Brees was at 436.50. Regardless we're arguing that he gets to keep Luck with a 4th rounder instead of Brown for a third rounder. That means he can swing around and hit Brown early if he wants him again, or maximize his potential of an early 1st/2nd/3rd pick with his QB already being solidified and grab as many WRs as he wants. The drop off of having Brown and no third rounder or QB or having Luck with no fourth rounder or WR seems like it favors Luck more. Luck also is Luck. He's a generational QB that, and while I know it sounds like im picking and choosing here, has a great potential to trend upwards. Brown is a 5-10 186 lbs WR that will undoubtedly get double teamed next year. He's going to get hit early when Bell goes on suspension for the first two weeks, and when Bell comes back I guarantee you NFL defensive coordinators are entirely keying in on Brown and Bell with tough box play. It just really seems that a 5-10 #1 option WR will get blanketed, it happens all the time with more athletically talented and skilled guys, and it's no knock on Brown. He's a great WR but I just can't see him replicating 129 receptions, 1600 yards, and 13 TDs.
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Aug 3, 2015 03:31
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Doltos posted:I agree that Brown to the third round WRs is a bigger drop off, but where are you getting these outscored point totals for QBs? In Yahoo standard scoring, Luck outscored Manning 518.35 points to 464.95. Roethlisberger clocked in at 464.70 and Brees was at 436.50. Nobody plays standard scoring these days. Edit: The totals the other guy gave are from a 4pt passing td scoring system, which most people play with. Papes fucked around with this message at 04:18 on Aug 3, 2015 |
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Aug 3, 2015 04:15
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I wrote a silly thing last year about fantasy football drafting that might be worth a read: http://www.fantasysportswarehouse.com/nfl/2014/08/22/sun-tzu-and-the-art-of-drafting/ You can tell it's from last year because Kaep is the top image and I said to draft Gronk in the third.
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Aug 3, 2015 04:34
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I second everything Beer4TheBeerGod said re: auctions. This is not an absolute rule just something that helps me personally with other semi-experienced auction drafters: -Don't let a $40 player slide off the board for $20, but it's pretty common for drafts to have a later stage where there are still a lot of starters available and only a few people who can bid on them. If things shake out that way (which you'll have to track over the draft), be one of those few. This is the main reason I like to nominate expensive people who I think are a little overrated early. -There is a temptation to bid on players just because you think the other guy is getting them too cheaply. Hopefully other people will pick up this role, if you can encourage it in a way that won't backfire then do that. If you pick up the role you'll end up holding the bag sometimes so don't go nuts with bags at prices you don't want. -Especially in big leagues, it's better to be weak at one position than to overcorrect and gently caress up your draft by overspending to get the last decent <whatever>. -Only new people try this, but don't try to corner the market at a position with hopes of trading
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Aug 3, 2015 13:47
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I'm picking 3rd in my RealTalk league snake and I'm pretty fine with that turn of events.
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Aug 3, 2015 15:00
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2 kicker league is my nightmare. My main league went no kickers last year and it loving rules.
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Aug 3, 2015 15:18
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Anyone here interested in doing a $25 MFL draft only league? I started one for me and my friends but came up a few people short. We are gonna need 3 or 4 people to fill out the last spots. PM me or post on here if you are interested and I'll get you the password.
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Aug 3, 2015 15:45
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District Selectman posted:2 kicker league is my nightmare. My main league went no kickers last year and it loving rules. I really want to do a 2 K, 2 DST, 2 TE, 3 QB chaos league
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Aug 3, 2015 16:44
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Spoeank posted:I really want to do a 2 K, 2 DST, 2 TE, 3 QB chaos league Also known as "competitive coin flipping"
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Aug 3, 2015 16:59
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Spoeank posted:I really want to do a 2 K, 2 DST, 2 TE, 3 QB chaos league
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Aug 3, 2015 17:22
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I'm running a fun league at work, only my second year playing so I'm not exactly sure what I'm doing. I was planning this year on converting the TE position to a WR/TE flex. It feels like the TE position is more volatile than other positions once you get past the third or fourth pick, so I figure instead of mandating it you could just lump the passing TEs in with the WRs. This also allows WRs to become a bigger part of the overalls core, giving them a bigger impact without implementing a PPR. What do you guys think about this change?
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Aug 3, 2015 19:24
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Reik posted:I'm running a fun league at work, only my second year playing so I'm not exactly sure what I'm doing. I was planning this year on converting the TE position to a WR/TE flex. It feels like the TE position is more volatile than other positions once you get past the third or fourth pick, so I figure instead of mandating it you could just lump the passing TEs in with the WRs. This also allows WRs to become a bigger part of the overalls core, giving them a bigger impact without implementing a PPR. What do you guys think about this change? Personally I prefer having at least one mandatory TE slot - if you make it TE/WR flex there will be maybe 3-4 TEs ever used and nobody will want to touch any others because of the point differential. It's like the "superflex" leagues - a QB/WR/RB/TE flex essentially becomes a second QB slot because you get so many more points from them. If it's a fun casual work league, sure, but in my opinion you're essentially taking away the TE slot to give the league training wheels.
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Aug 3, 2015 19:31
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Reik posted:I'm running a fun league at work, only my second year playing so I'm not exactly sure what I'm doing. I was planning this year on converting the TE position to a WR/TE flex. It feels like the TE position is more volatile than other positions once you get past the third or fourth pick, so I figure instead of mandating it you could just lump the passing TEs in with the WRs. This also allows WRs to become a bigger part of the overalls core, giving them a bigger impact without implementing a PPR. What do you guys think about this change? If it's for fun, get rid of dedicated TE so everyone can actually have fun. TE is the worst, PPR forever, hail satan.
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Aug 3, 2015 19:35
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Forever_Peace posted:Also known as "competitive coin flipping" I have been petitioning ESPN to add a "rock paper or scissors" roster spot (anyone can pick any object and it is only revealed after the final buzzer on MNF) for years
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Aug 3, 2015 20:04
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Brad Biggs @BradBiggs Fox says Kevin White is "making headway" but still vague about any timetable. Said he was on the shelf for 6 weeks. I was already iffy on White's 7th-round ADP, but this should take him off the board altogether. He's missing way too much practice and development time to be an early factor this year.
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Aug 3, 2015 21:03
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If a New England RB was on the board for you to begin with you're doing something wrong.
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Aug 3, 2015 21:06
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Wrong white brah
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Aug 3, 2015 21:07
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So, I'm pretty sure I've completely talked myself out of getting a high ADP QB. No Luck. No Aaron Rodgers. Unless Peyton and Big Ben or Wilson drop big time. I'm seeing too much potential in 20+ point a week QBs like Tannehill, Rivers, Bradford/Sanchez
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Aug 3, 2015 21:44
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