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fronz posted:Trump can't get more than ~30% of the primary vote. People will drop out and their voters will filter to Bush and Walker Trump isn't going to win, but people keep putting his "break point" higher and higher. A week ago he couldn't get more than 20% of the vote.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:42
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I dismissed Trump early, but it's going to happen. I'm scared to death because the last 15 years of us becoming a celebrity-first culture have finally caught up to us.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:47
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Nonsense posted:Chris Christie is severely overweight, fat, and pus-filled. Completely unfit to be President. Too tight a race. Everything is too tight for Chris Christie.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:51
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Ignite Memories posted:I feel bad for John Kasich. It kind of seems like he is the best person among the whole group, and he hasn't a chance. He timed his entry right and likely bumped Perry out of the first debate. That's not a bad score for a no-hoper.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:51
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Zelder posted:people keep putting his "break point" higher and higher. A week ago he couldn't get more than 20% of the vote. Yep. They also have to keep moving his approval/like-ability ceiling higher as well. After Trump, Bush, and Walker, the next 2 guys are Cruz and Carson with a combined 15% between them in the RCP average. Cruz/Carson supporters aren't going to jump ship for Jeb loving BUSH. Trump will get most of their support if/when they start dropping out, if he hasn't already siphoned it all away. We'll go through the same routine in the general with Trump's ceiling constantly being pushed up. It will go from "LOL the GOP nominated someone we can't lose to" to "well, 45% will be his ceiling" to MSNBC and CNN talking heads being visibly saddened as they call the race for President Elect Donald Trump. Donald Trump is the perfect Newton's 3rd Law candidate in answer to the Obama presidency. Say it with me people. PRESIDENT Trump.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:53
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Zelder posted:Trump isn't going to win, but people keep putting his "break point" higher and higher. A week ago he couldn't get more than 20% of the vote. I heard 30% on Maddow's show from some analyst.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:56
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Carson was pretty bad tonight, how is he first tier canditate?
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Aug 4, 2015 02:57
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It's a pendulum. We went from "southern Democrat with a saxophone" to "oh yeah, well, we have a good old rancher boy" to "well WE have a black guy" to "well WE have Donald loving Trump!"
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Aug 4, 2015 02:57
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rear end cobra posted:Carson was pretty bad tonight, how is he first tier canditate? His second residence is the Fox News studios.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:58
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Chris Christie posted:Yep. They also have to keep moving his approval/like-ability ceiling higher as well. The only comforting thing about this post is that you made it.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:59
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Chris Christie posted:Yep. They also have to keep moving his approval/like-ability ceiling higher as well. The is "NO WAY!!!!!!! Trump can win more the 95% of the vote....not gona happen you all are living in a drug fueled fantasy.
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Aug 4, 2015 02:59
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rear end cobra posted:Carson was pretty bad tonight, how is he first tier canditate? "He's a literal brain surgeon, he's gotta be a genius!" 
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Aug 4, 2015 02:59
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Not to mention the new voters Trump will pull into the General Election. You think the polls were bad underestimating Obama's margins of victory? HA, what 'till you see how WRONG the likely voter models are for a general election featuring Donald Trump. Obama got plenty of pop-star votes from idiots who never voted before and won't again, but Trump is an ACTUAL pop-culture star. This time the GOP will get in on those sweet, sweet moron votes. Hell, Democrats ALWAYS win the stupid vote and the loser vote - Obama, Kerry, Gore, Clinton - they ALL won the poverty-level income and below vote and the high-school drop-out vote by HUGE margins. The Donald is going to TRUMP their performances and turn the stupid loser vote in favor of the GOP nominee. Millions of mouth-breathing, American Idol/The View/Price is Right-watching retards who have the good sense to sit at home on election day every year will find themselves compelled by an irresisitable urge to put on their cleanest pair of sweat-pants and head on down to their local church/grade school/post-office/wherever their polling place is and vote for that entertaining guy with the hair from The Apprentice.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:00
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rear end cobra posted:Carson was pretty bad tonight, how is he first tier canditate? 1) He's a Very Serious Person 2) He's a brain surgeon, which means he'll be a good President 3) He's not a career politician, which means he'll be a good President 4) All of the primary candidates are weak or flawed 5) He's a second tier candidate at best
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Aug 4, 2015 03:02
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Idiot Kicker posted:It's a pendulum. We went from "southern Democrat with a saxophone" to "oh yeah, well, we have a good old rancher boy" to "well WE have a black guy" to "well WE have Donald loving Trump!" I mean it's a safer method of conducting the class tug-of-war than "hey we murdered your tribune again" vs "oh look I came back from campaigning with my army and you're on a proscription list" ad imperium.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:03
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Whiskey Sours posted:1) He's a Very Serious Person 6) He's "one of the good ones"
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Aug 4, 2015 03:03
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When you think about it, it is ultimately you leftists who will be most responsible for PRESIDENT Donald Trump. Your chickens are coming home to roost. Your insistence on going with the "cool" guy. Your constant marrying of D.C. and Hollywood. Your glorification of hype, social media, glamour, and glitz. Your relentless campaign to get more and more of the dregs of society into the habit of voting. On one magical day next November, all the fruits of your labor will come together in one gloriously triumphant evening, as we reach the logical conclusion of your perversion of politics in America. The 45th President of the United States - Donald Mother loving Trump.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:05
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Mister Macys posted:6) He's "one of the good ones" I think the correct term is 'articulate'
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Aug 4, 2015 03:06
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rear end cobra posted:Carson was pretty bad tonight, how is he first tier canditate? I don't know if you have seen this, but Donald Motherfucking Trump is leading that first tier. We are through several looking glasses at this point. No improbability can be discounted; poo poo Has Gone Pear-Shaped.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:06
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Mister Macys posted:6) He's "one of the good ones" And he has written some Costco books. So if you need the bulk pack of TP.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:06
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Zelder posted:Trump isn't going to win, but people keep putting his "break point" higher and higher. A week ago he couldn't get more than 20% of the vote. what if trump gets 60% of the vote, would he not win then?
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Aug 4, 2015 03:06
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rear end cobra posted:Carson was pretty bad tonight, how is he first tier canditate? "See? Not racist!"
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Aug 4, 2015 03:08
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Chris Christie posted:When you think about it, it is ultimately you leftists who will be most responsible for PRESIDENT Donald Trump. Well now I've gone and killed myself I hope you're happy.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:08
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Chris, please tell me you are either a satirical character poster or are the real Christie. Otherwise I'm gonna cry.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:09
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MrWillsauce posted:Chris, please tell me you are either a satirical character poster or are the real Christie. Otherwise I'm gonna cry. he's basically a mainstream democrat except for MAH GUNZ
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Aug 4, 2015 03:10
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2020 is gonna be full-on '03 California governor race. Trump vs. some child star vs. a pornstar vs. Gray Davis vs. multiple Baldwin brothers.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:11
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Chris Christie posted:When you think about it, it is ultimately you leftists who will be most responsible for PRESIDENT Donald Trump. This is amazing, don't stop 
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Aug 4, 2015 03:11
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Woah Ben Carson is a really bad public speaker. I'd like to hear that voice at my hospital bedside but its way too soft for the Big Chair (I assume the chair in the Oval Office is large)
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Aug 4, 2015 03:12
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Idiot Kicker posted:2020 is gonna be full-on '03 California governor race. Trump vs. some child star vs. a pornstar vs. Gray Davis vs. multiple Baldwin brothers. My one dream for America is to make Demolition Man a reality, and pass an amendment allowing Schwarzenegger to run for President.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:12
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Idiot Kicker posted:2020 is gonna be full-on '03 California governor race. Trump vs. some child star vs. a pornstar vs. Gray Davis vs. multiple Baldwin brothers. that was the first election I ever voted in
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Aug 4, 2015 03:13
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Chris Christie posted:When you think about it, it is ultimately you leftists who will be most responsible for PRESIDENT Donald Trump.  The only way you're going to be living that dream is if a certain grandmother with two eyes and a brain gets a name change.  Or a certain silver-maned socialist with an accent stronger than a gallon of malt vinegar. FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Aug 4, 2015 |
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Aug 4, 2015 03:14
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PPP has literally every Democratic Party candidate beating Trump by double digits.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:16
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MrWillsauce posted:Chris, please tell me you are either a satirical character poster or are the real Christie. Otherwise I'm gonna cry. My online SA persona is an exaggerated caricature of my real self (this is a comedy forum after all). But as always, the best humor is laden with truth. I am being 100% truthful about supporting Trump AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME though. If the South Carolina primary was today, I'd either vote Trump, or since he would win in a landslide today, vote in the Democratic primary for Bernie to help you guys out.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:17
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Mister Macys posted:PPP has literally every Democratic Party candidate beating Trump by double digits. Good thing they're not the only pollster on those charts or else someone might get the idea to unskew them!
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Aug 4, 2015 03:18
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Mister Macys posted:PPP has literally every Democratic Party candidate beating Trump by double digits. plenty of time left, my friend. plenty of time.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:19
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Trump was behind the GOP heavyweights too. He'll do the the general electorate what he's doing to the GOP primary electorate. I find your faith in humanity amusing. Just LOL if you don't think MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of your Obama voters are sheep who will happily flock to the new, hip, glamour candidate. They'll eat up his new reality show, Trump 2016. He'll churn out even more additional new voters too. As I said a while back, they'll come for the show, and when it's over, they'll pay with their votes.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:20
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FAUXTON posted:Good thing they're not the only pollster on those charts or else someone might get the idea to unskew them! Out of curiosity, is there an overtly conservative polling firm that could still be considered mainstream? I've forgotten most of the polling centres' names since 2012. 
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Aug 4, 2015 03:20
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Chris Christie posted:Not to mention the new voters Trump will pull into the General Election. You think the polls were bad underestimating Obama's margins of victory? HA, what 'till you see how WRONG the likely voter models are for a general election featuring Donald Trump. Obama got plenty of pop-star votes from idiots who never voted before and won't again, but Trump is an ACTUAL pop-culture star. This time the GOP will get in on those sweet, sweet moron votes. Hell, Democrats ALWAYS win the stupid vote and the loser vote - Obama, Kerry, Gore, Clinton - they ALL won the poverty-level income and below vote and the high-school drop-out vote by HUGE margins. The Donald is going to TRUMP their performances and turn the stupid loser vote in favor of the GOP nominee. The Ahhnold Factor
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Aug 4, 2015 03:21
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Mister Macys posted:Out of curiosity, is there an overtly conservative polling firm that could still be considered mainstream? Rasmussen, maybe Gallup or Zogby? Keep in mind that "overtly conservative" is a relative term so someone trying to throw up feel-good numbers for the conservative base is likely going to be so alienated from the mainstream it's growing giant turtles and weird cross-beaked finches. This early with these candidates you won't get too far from the overall polling that says Hillary is going to win in a landslide. The whole name recognition thing that's driving her numbers this far out is what's helping Trump in the GOP pond, because he's been on their goddamn televisions for years and before that they were getting fleeced by all manner of poo poo with his name on it. His whole resort/casino schtick is all about connecting the temporarily embarrassed millionaires in middle america with a gold leaf and pink marble taste of the opulence that awaits them if it weren't for all those minorities/taxes/bill collectors/child support payments in the way.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:32
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Chris Christie posted:When you think about it, it is ultimately you leftists who will be most responsible for PRESIDENT Donald Trump. I get that you're a gimmick poster, but you're laying it on a bit thick. Nobody is dumb enough to believe that the party whose previous two nominees were John Kerry and Al Gore is insistent on going with "cool" candidates.
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Aug 4, 2015 03:34
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