|
Slate Action posted:41% of the votes in that Iowa poll went to candidates who have never held public office. This is the biggest tell that I see out of this poll. If there's ever been an "establishment" backlash in America, this is it, and don't think this dosen't carry over to democrats somewhat as well. If the dems had a charismatic businessman who'se never held elected office, he'd be giving HRC a run for her money. In the meanwhile though, Sanders is the default anti-establishment candidate. If we get a Trump/Clinton general election, I think Clinton will win, but it wont be by the landslide the polls are telling us today, 15 months out. I'd also expect a record number of cross-voters with democrats sick of "politics as usual" who will vote for Trump, and many traditional republicans still crying from the fact that Trump is their nominee, crossing over to vote for Clinton.
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 18:58
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 16, 2024 03:25 |
|
|
Lum_ posted:21 point lead. Holy crap. They're even making GBS threads on Rush Limbaugh because he refuses to throw Erickson under the bus. This frenzy cannot sustain itself till February, so enjoy the fireworks while they're here.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 18:58
|
|
|
euphronius posted:Ok that makes sense but I think HRCs turnout potential is overwhelming. Hillary is playing up the "I'm a woman just like you!" Angle with stuff like her Pinterest account. It's a good strategy even though obviously there's very few women who have ever been like Hillary. I think it depends how tone deaf women view Trump to the point they're willing to go vote against him. It's impossible to say this early.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 18:58
|
|
|
Nothing has to be anything
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 18:59
|
|
|
Montasque posted:This frenzy cannot sustain itself till February, so enjoy the fireworks while they're here. I remember when Trump would never make it to the first debate and yet he still did.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:00
|
|
|
TheDisreputableDog posted:"Fiorina's a massive failure", he smugly typed before turning back to the latte station. id say destroying two fortune 500 companies and then losing an election is in fact a greater failure of a career than being working class yeah
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:01
|
|
|
Spacebump posted:I remember when Trump would never make it to the first debate and yet he still did. Trump had like a dozen major corporations cut ties with him over his campaign and he didn't drop out. He's doing this for real.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:03
|
|
|
Brannock posted:I can't help but think of Nate Silver smugly laying out why Trump has absolutely no chance ever nope no way. 538 has really been doing poorly so far this cycle. they need to start making less absolute declarations until a lot closer to elections imo
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:03
|
|
|
echronorian posted:Hillary is playing up the "I'm a woman just like you!" Angle with stuff like her Pinterest account. It's a good strategy even though obviously there's very few women who have ever been like Hillary. I think it depends how tone deaf women view Trump to the point they're willing to go vote against him. It's impossible to say this early. First woman president vs. Old tv personality who is kind of funny. I guess you are right that could go either way.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:03
|
|
|
Spacebump posted:I remember when Trump would never make it to the first debate and yet he still did. You maybe right, honestly I thought he was going to dump out when he had to file his financials. I just feel that he's not serious and when time comes for him to put skin in the game he's going to go down in flames. Basically Donald Trump is a less serious Rob Ford. For all of Ford's goofiness the man put A LOT of skin in the game.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:03
|
|
|
Sheng-ji Yang posted:538 has really been doing poorly so far this cycle. they need to start making less absolute declarations until a lot closer to elections imo To be fair 538 is really great at measuring actual voting, of which we are a long way away from. His doomcasting of Trump's chances is actually pretty accurate - until/unless Trump actually starts pulling in absolute majorities, he is still what he appears to be at first glance - an anti-mainstream Joker card with a hard ceiling. The question is just where that ceiling is, and if it breaks 50%, THEN poo poo gets real (and two things happen there - the first is that a lack of ground organization will block him from actually picking up delegates - which happened to Santorum in 2008, remember - and if he survives THAT you get to see Silver's final prediction, which is that the GOP will flat out not allow Trump to win no matter what - at which point you see a Trump Party run and Hillary/Sanders/Biden coasting into the White House). Regardless the Trumpshow is killing any chance of a Republican candidate winning in 2016, which I'm OK with. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Aug 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:04
|
|
|
Lum_ posted:The whole GOP (well, a third!) Okay
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:04
|
|
|
e: wrong thread!
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:05
|
|
|
Mega64 posted:Trump has a ceiling he will inevitably reach.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:05
|
|
|
Once a month I have dinner with my entire extended family and the polls are in: Trump may be 'rough around the edges' but he doesn't bullshit and that's what America needs right now. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:05
|
|
|
Sheng-ji Yang posted:id say destroying two fortune 500 companies and then losing an election is in fact a greater failure of a career than being working class yeah Yeah remember the company named HP. *pours out magenta toner cart on curb*
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:05
|
|
|
Lum_ posted:21 point lead. Holy crap. Well more than a third is regularly batshit anyways. Don't forget to add in the numbers for Carson, Cruz, Jindal.... ah, gently caress it, all of them.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:05
|
|
|
Nate Silver has also been really down on Sanders, saying he won't win because he can't appeal to minorities, he won't win even if gets both Iowa and NH, Bernie will only appeal to a stereotyped college left. He just doesn't get this election.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:06
|
|
|
Three Olives posted:http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trumps-lead-grows-after-debate-controversy/ reince preibus after reading this poll: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKcAYMb5uk4
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:06
|
|
|
RE: what happens if Sanders does well, if the UK is a guide he'll come under great hostility from liberal media outlets as soon as he threatens to win rather than be an entertaining novelty. However I don't know if your liberals have the same messianic delusions as Blairites, so the UK may well not be a guide.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:08
|
|
|
Three Olives posted:http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trumps-lead-grows-after-debate-controversy/ This poll is wildly divergent from the other post-debate polls.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:08
|
|
|
Brannock posted:I can't help but think of Nate Silver smugly laying out why Trump has absolutely no chance ever nope no way. That guy is a dumbo. Not Trump.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:09
|
|
|
2016: the campaign to drive the RNC chair to suicide
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:09
|
|
|
Trump is a monster. A glorious, horrifying monster.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:09
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:This poll is wildly divergent from the other post-debate polls. Wat. The only other post-debate poll was the NBC survey-monkey one, which also had Trump gaining (slightly), although it also had much larger bumps for Fiorina, Cruz, and Carson.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:10
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:Once a month I have dinner with my entire extended family and the polls are in: Trump may be 'rough around the edges' but he doesn't bullshit and that's what America needs right now. Get used to it, you LOSER!!!
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:10
|
|
|
TheDisreputableDog posted:"Fiorina's a massive failure", he smugly typed before turning back to the latte station. Just like a republican to measure success not by what was actually accomplished but by how much money you managed to pile up while making GBS threads the bed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:11
|
|
|
TheDisreputableDog posted:Yeah remember the company named HP. ok just destroying one and halving the value of another and laying off tens of thousands of people
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:12
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:This poll is wildly divergent from the other post-debate polls. The PPP poll was Iowa while the others were national I believe.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:12
|
|
|
Rocks posted:Which poli sci people are you referring to? Thanks Brandon Nyhan, namely. I thought I saw a Lynn Vaverick reference yesterday but I can't find it now.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:13
|
|
|
archaeo posted:Wat. The only other post-debate poll was the NBC survey-monkey one, which also had Trump gaining (slightly), although it also had much larger bumps for Fiorina, Cruz, and Carson. Sorry, "poll." But there is a huge gap in where the two polls place Trump.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:14
|
|
|
Three Olives posted:Isn't it telling that she holds no board positions on any major corporations? That is a well compensated give me job for a retired CEO of a Fortune 50 company that has even an ounce of respect. She did at a couple minor companies after HP but left because of her senate run. At least she says that. I said it before and I will again. Fiorina is a sane sounding Trump. I am thinking that if/when Trump flames out and if he doesn't run 3rd party, his support will go to Carson and Fiorina. Maybe some to Cruz. big maybe. That 20% loathes the current politicians so I can not see them supporting a politician until after one is nominated.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:14
|
|
|
Reince Preibus memorial wing of trump tower south (formerly, the White House)
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:16
|
|
|
Montasque posted:You maybe right, honestly I thought he was going to dump out when he had to file his financials. I just feel that he's not serious and when time comes for him to put skin in the game he's going to go down in flames. He has lost millions of dollars worth of deals since he started the crazy train rolling. He's in for real.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:16
|
|
|
Montasque posted:You maybe right, honestly I thought he was going to dump out when he had to file his financials. I just feel that he's not serious and when time comes for him to put skin in the game he's going to go down in flames. Trump has already put in a lot of "skin" on this election if you take in account the lost value from the terminated contracts and such he got hit with a few months ago.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:18
|
|
|
MrBims posted:Nate Silver has also been really down on Sanders, saying he won't win because he can't appeal to minorities, he won't win even if gets both Iowa and NH, Bernie will only appeal to a stereotyped college left. He just doesn't get this election. Nate Silver is right about both Trump and Sanders, hth.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:18
|
|
|
archaeo posted:Wat. The only other post-debate poll was the NBC survey-monkey one, which also had Trump gaining (slightly), although it also had much larger bumps for Fiorina, Cruz, and Carson. Another area they diverge on is Cruz. One has Cruz way up, one has him flat/down. I'm thinking one of the polls might be trash.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:19
|
|
|
Pinterest Mom posted:Nate Silver is right about both Trump and Sanders, hth.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:19
|
|
|
I genuinely believe if the US was treated to Sanders/Trump in the general, the world would be better for it. It'd make for one hell of a show.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 16, 2024 03:25 |
|
|
Pinterest Mom posted:Nate Silver is right about both Trump and Sanders, hth. This is bordering on delusion. Trump will be in the general and win, if the Democratic nominee is not Sanders.
|
|
#
?
Aug 10, 2015 19:20
|
|