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Doltos posted:Why throw in all the jokes if you're trying to make a serious statement? Picking a QB before you have at least two RBs and a WR (or any other three elite skill positions if you do Zero RB or go Gronk or whatever) is just a bad idea, full stop. Assuming for a moment everyone involved stays healthy and nondisasterously productive, I guarantee that anybody who passed on the value represented by Lamar Miller in favour of any of those QBs is going to get titanically hosed on the deal. Not to be a dick, but come on, this is like the lowest level of VORP/VONA analysis. Which is coincidentally also what you keep missing when you dismiss a midrange TE1 as worthless, it should be noted. Fantasy Football 101: not all positions are equal, both in range of outcomes and depth of draftable options. If you don't know how to gauge each, you're just setting yourself up for failure.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:09
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Let me add very little to this riveting conversation by saying I also dislike the usage of HB in fantasy discourse.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:16
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Sataere posted:I wonder what it is about Doltos that makes you all go crazy? As far as I can tell, he has made the following statements. I don't know what Doltos' reputation is, but: 1) No, he said the first rule of fantasy is don't draft players on bad teams. 2) He said Delanie Walker was a garbage fire TE (TE 7 last year) with a ceiling of Greg Olsen last year (TE 4). He said Walker gives a lot of 4-40 weeks, which was certainly true last year, but that's still better than most other TEs in the league! So like, yeah, you can grab Vernon Davis or Eric Ebron or something in the 12th round or whatever instead of Walker in the 11th, but you'll have an even shittier TE. 3) I don't think anyone would disagree, which makes Doltos' ranting about Delanie Walker even weirder, because no one was saying you should reach for Walker or that he'd win you your league. The only thing anyone said about him was he is falling really far in drafts when he is a decent TE (with the caveat that all TEs after Gronk and Graham are awful, duh). I don't give a poo poo about Delanie Walker, it just seems like a bunch of bad advice.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:17
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Franks Happy Place posted:Picking a QB before you have at least two RBs and a WR (or any other three elite skill positions if you do Zero RB or go Gronk or whatever) is just a bad idea, full stop. Assuming for a moment everyone involved stays healthy and nondisasterously productive, I guarantee that anybody who passed on the value represented by Lamar Miller in favour of any of those QBs is going to get titanically hosed on the deal. I don't believe in that line of thinking. I had Peyton Manning two years ago and Rodgers last year. They both eclipsed the value where I drafted them significantly, and, granted, Miller would have granted higher value than his ADP last year if people wisely picked him up. Either way I felt at the time that I was making the correct decision taking high volume passers over iffy RB choices. Like for instance last year I got ribbed at the draft for taking Rodgers in the second round over Ellington and lo and behold it worked out. Will it always? Probably not, but there are plenty of times where I can see a high volume QB over a RB9, even if the drop off from mid tier to low tier QBs isn't that much. RVProfootballer posted:I don't know what Doltos' reputation is, but: 1) I think I explained the thinking behind that statement pretty well. It's not a huge leap of logic and willfully ignoring the explanation behind the statement makes it difficult to argue the point. 2) I do think Delanie is a garbage fire TE. I said his absolute ceiling is Olsen, it doesn't mean I think he can get there. He's a hybrid TE that isn't the most athletically gifted and will be catching balls from a QB that only fed his TE 25 times in a spread offense last year. And on top of that the Titans still have question marks along the o-line, they're using Bishop Sankey again as their ground threat, and their receiving threats are a decent Kendall Wright and a ghost in the husk Hakeem Nicks with an unknown DGB coming in. Couple that with a rookie QB, the most notoriously difficult position to excel in as a rookie, I think it's safe to say Delanie might not be that great this year. Sure you can look on the upside and say he's going to be a safety blanket PPR monster, but I think it's as easy to look on the downside and make a decision not to draft him as your TE1, or even care to make it a point to. 3) I didn't rant against Delanie. That poo poo's annoying when people try to throw those personal attacks in a benign argument about fantasy football drafting. Someone asked me why I think Delanie is a garbage fire TE, I explained. That simple. I mean at the end of the day fantasy football is just a gamble. What's the big deal with having different strategies to the draft? I win my leagues a lot and have been in the playoffs in the last five years in my one consistent league, and I'm sure many other people have won their leagues or hit the playoffs every week in their leagues too. Obviously multiple approaches to the draft work or don't work, so I see no problem at all with saying don't draft good players on poo poo teams as being my number one rule. It works for me in basketball, football, baseball, and hockey fantasy leagues, so I dunno, just seems like solid logic from my viewpoint.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:35
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I think this all starts from the way you worded your opinion. You said "the number one rule". Not "my number one rule". You could have saved yourself a lot of hassle and a poo poo avatar by knowing goon triggers. Rule 1: don't ever tell a goon what to think. Also, walker is a good option in the late rounds and should be valued as such. TE is a crap shoot and walker has shown consistency over the years.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:43
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I think Doltos has done a very good job explaining his points even if I think he's wrong like 75 % of the time  There's a reason why you're not called Daltos any more never 4get 
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Aug 12, 2015 03:43
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I'm still mesmerized by that goddamn shiny turd
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Aug 12, 2015 03:50
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How many turds did the purchaser look through before he found one that was just right? 
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Aug 12, 2015 03:51
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7B7s3-pGs
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Aug 12, 2015 03:52
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Gronk-Graham then everyone else is a gross oversimplification. Gronk Graham Olsen/Kelce Everyone else And Graham is just on reputation he'll probably end up like barely top five. He could be a dumpster fire. Like, say... Delanie Walker
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Aug 12, 2015 03:53
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Olsen and Kelce are going to score like a point a week more than the #5 TE, it happens every year. If you spend a top-50 pick on one of them you're going to have a bad time.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:54
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KYLE RUDOLPH BABY WOO!
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Aug 12, 2015 03:56
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old dog child posted:How many turds did the purchaser look through before he found one that was just right? https://www.google.com/search?q=turd&biw=1920&bih=965&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAWoVChMIwOjl4cWixwIVDDU-Ch1TiQmD 5 Dandy Kaiser posted:I think Doltos has done a very good job explaining his points even if I think he's wrong like 75 % of the time Chuck was the one who changed my name back in like 2008 or 9 because Neodoomium requested in in IRC.
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Aug 12, 2015 03:57
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Doltos posted:https://www.google.com/search?q=turd&biw=1920&bih=965&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAWoVChMIwOjl4cWixwIVDDU-Ch1TiQmD  I actually did a reverse image search for it and it brought up a whole lot of Filipino stuff (which is hilarious to me as a half-pinoy).
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Aug 12, 2015 03:59
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The TEs I'm targeting this year, in order, based upon when I'm probably going to have to draft them: 1) Eifert 2) ASJ 3) Paul 4) Walker 5) Ebron 6) Daniels 7) RUDOLPH THIS IS THE YEAR GUYS If everyone forgets Rudolph exists and I have my choice betweem him and those other 6, I might take him god help me E: two of those guys will end up being a TE1 in a 12-team league, and since there's like a 20 point difference between 5-12 and like another 25 point difference maybe between 3-5, I'm going to take my chances and hopefully I'll be right. Otherwise, I'll just have to pick up Heath Miller off of waivers for the 6th year in a row. Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 03:59
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Doltos posted:3) I didn't rant against Delanie. That poo poo's annoying when people try to throw those personal attacks in a benign argument about fantasy football drafting. Someone asked me why I think Delanie is a garbage fire TE, I explained. That simple. FWIW, I didn't mean this as a burn on you or anything personal, just meant that I thought you were being hyperbolic about it. Poor choice of words on my part  As for rule #1, I guess if you water it down from "don't draft good players on bad teams," it sort of loses meaning, doesn't it? Obviously I'll take Cobb or Hilton ahead of Sammy Watkins or something. But I'd also take Alshon Jeffery or Mike Evans or AJ Green ahead of someone like Edelman or Andre Johnson that are on objectively better teams/offenses. Does anyone do something besides combining talent and situation when drafting dudes? Or do you mean that there's like a threshold where if a team/offense is bad enough, players on it are off limits? Again, if that isn't some hard rule, I'm not sure anyone does anything differently, ya know? Guys like Decker, Ivory, Evans, VJax, DJax, Morris, etc., were relevant last year, despite being on awful teams.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:02
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Dandy Kaiser posted:The TEs I'm targeting this year, in order, based upon when I'm probably going to have to draft them: You'll drop him by week 2. TEs are the worst.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:03
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LmaoTheKid posted:TEs are the worst. hth qtiyd
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Aug 12, 2015 04:04
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I've been doing a lot of mocks and with my first two picks I've been able to pull Sims and Rudolph basically every time. Justin Hunter is usually there in the third, too. IDK they're just mocks so maybe people aren't taking them seriously?
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Aug 12, 2015 04:04
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Kelce for life 8)
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Aug 12, 2015 04:09
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Guys this thread is about value-based guessing not positional scarcity-based guessing. Doltos is only following the thread title.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:10
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So last year was my first year playing fantasy football (don't ask me why it took me so long I have no idea). I felt like I drafted well, played the waiver wire well and then lost in the championship. Here was my draft last year: Jamaal Charles Dez Bryant Jordy Nelson Rob Gronkowski Ryan Matthews DeSean Jackson Tom Brady Ahmad Bradshaw I know I left out the rest but that was the important part. I'm trying to figure out where I could be smarter in my draft, but to be fair, my team was loving stacked last year and having a playoff in Week 17 killed me. I think my RB depth hurt because Matthews was injured early and then Bradshaw got injured before playoffs. Maybe I need to wait on QB a little longer this year?
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Aug 12, 2015 04:12
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FF2015: where the opinions are stupid and tight ends don't matter
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Aug 12, 2015 04:13
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RVProfootballer posted:FWIW, I didn't mean this as a burn on you or anything personal, just meant that I thought you were being hyperbolic about it. Poor choice of words on my part It's a mix, granted. You have to look at player's injury histories, personnel around them, how likely they are to be targeted/given carries. I think the more suitable comparison for this situation is would you take an Alshon Jeffery or Mike Evans over an AJ Green? I think in a void I'd want AJ Green because I believe the Bengals are the better offense and defense over the Bears and Bucs. Then from that point I think about how much are each going to be used. Alshon Jeffery will share targets in the pass game between Forte (who had 102 freaking receptions last year) and Martellus Bennett, so he might be set, but he's also a sophomore receiver who benefited from having Brandon Marshall across from him and has a good possibility of not repeating production. Then Mike Evans is going to have Vincent Jackson and ASJ competing for receptions, but will have less competition from the RB front. The Bucs will be passing from behind a lot this year and I know from Eli Manning that rookie QBs love throwing it up deep to their catch anything ultra-huge WR. So in the end the comparison between those three guys and like Edelman and AJ are obvious for their situations, but when I have to make that tough round two decision I think that I'd take A.J. Green. They're all in similar positions for usage rates, they're all talented, but I think A.J. Green is more talented and on a better team, so I'd take him. Will it work out 100% of the time? No, but I just think it's an okay way to approach the draft. Doltos fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 04:14
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MrSargent posted:So last year was my first year playing fantasy football (don't ask me why it took me so long I have no idea). I felt like I drafted well, played the waiver wire well and then lost in the championship. You drafted a great team and lost from bad luck. Keep drafting like that and doing the diligence during the year and you'll eventually win. If you only play one league per year, though, just random variance could screw you repeatedly for a decade and it wouldn't mean you'd done something wrong. Fantasy Football is like 55% skill and 45% luck. That's enough of an edge to win in the long run, but enough luck to screw anyone over no matter how great they are.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:16
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Can we bullshit some team names instead? This slapfight sucks.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:16
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Marc Trestman isn't in Chicago anymore and Forte's receptions are going to drop like a stone. He is in no way competing with Jeffery for targets. Also this is Jeffery's third year, so you can drop the "sophomore slump" narrative
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Aug 12, 2015 04:16
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I commish an all-women league every year and one of the newbies dropped "Wilfork for Food" on everybody this year and I was like  ...regulars better watch out because this gal knows the true meaning of fantasy football. (it's puns the answer is puns and smacktalk)
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Aug 12, 2015 04:19
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Benne posted:Marc Trestman isn't in Chicago anymore and Forte's receptions are going to drop like a stone. He is in no way competing with Jeffery for targets. It's his 4th year actually.....
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Aug 12, 2015 04:20
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Papes posted:It's his 4th year actually..... Well drat, he's been around even longer than I thought. Everybody keeps acting like he's some unproven commodity for some reason.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:22
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Benne posted:Also this is Jeffery's third year, so you can drop the "sophomore slump" narrative Whoops
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Aug 12, 2015 04:23
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Forever_Peace posted:Can we bullshit some team names instead? This slapfight sucks. My keeper IDP team is PinotNoirAnthonyBarr https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6yttOfIvOw
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Aug 12, 2015 04:23
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Leperflesh posted:You drafted a great team and lost from bad luck. Keep drafting like that and doing the diligence during the year and you'll eventually win. If you only play one league per year, though, just random variance could screw you repeatedly for a decade and it wouldn't mean you'd done something wrong. Thanks bud. The friend league I am in just moved from 10 team to 12 so that will be a fun challenge but I'll just follow the same strategy I did last year. It Is basically BeerSheets with a light sprinkling of my own favorites and "breakouts". In terms of Waiver Wire rules, do most leagues just reset the waiver each week based on standings? Or is there a better way to do waivers so that it helps people who make smart decisions more than getting lucky with a #1 waiver pick when ODB blows up?
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Aug 12, 2015 04:29
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Some leagues do waiver wire with priorities that are "sticky" until used. This is dumb and bad. Some do waiver wire with priorities that reset every week in reverse order based on standings. This is less dumb but still not very smart, and not great. Some do waiver wire with priorities that reset every week in reverse order based on total points earned so far that season. This is a littlle smart and OK, but not amazing. Some do waiver wire with priorities that reset every week in reverse order based on total points earned over the last three or four games. This is pretty smart and good. edit: Possibly, although I've never heard of it, some teams do waiver wire priorities that reset every week in reverse order based on total points earned including by the bench for the last three or four games. That would be very good indeed, because it'd be based on genuine need rather than luck of the matchups, and someone couldn't deliberately tank a game just to get better waiver priority that Tuesday. And some do blind auction-based FAAB. This is the best and is a sign of a true intelligent connoisseur of fantasy football. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 04:35
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MrSargent posted:So last year was my first year playing fantasy football (don't ask me why it took me so long I have no idea). I felt like I drafted well, played the waiver wire well and then lost in the championship. You didn't do anything wrong. You got hosed by a dumb rear end Week 17 league. Leperflesh posted:Some leagues do waiver wire with priorities that are "sticky" until used. This is dumb and bad. Holding onto waivers to use when you deem appropriate is also a strategy. Parity waivers are lame as hell and only fit for scrub leagues. 3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 04:44 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 04:37
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FAAB is the only answer because sitting on priority is loving lame as hell and those people should be humiliated in a public setting.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:46
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Yeah FAAB is the best way to do it but we do "sticky" waivers and it's fine and fun.
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Aug 12, 2015 04:54
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I laughed at the poop picture.
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Aug 12, 2015 05:23
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Doltos posted:And on top of that the Titans still have question marks along the o-line, they're using Bishop Sankey again as their ground threat, and their receiving threats are a decent Kendall Wright and a ghost in the husk Hakeem Nicks with an unknown DGB coming in. You forgot about super ultra mega free agent signing Harry Douglas 
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Aug 12, 2015 05:27
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Metapod posted:You forgot about super ultra mega free agent signing Harry Douglas Hey, I owe Harry a shout out. I lost a playoff game because I didn't start him when Julio went down. He always showed up when Roddy, and Julio were not on the field.
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Aug 12, 2015 05:46
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