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Aug 12, 2015 15:21
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What impact will this have on non-rich Chinese? Will there be price increases?
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Aug 12, 2015 15:26
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Don't worry, friends. China is still going to hit every one of their 7% growth targets moving forward 
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Aug 12, 2015 15:28
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So, they keep devaluing their currency to keep exports high. What is to stop them from doing it forever?
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Aug 12, 2015 16:00
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TheBalor posted:So, they keep devaluing their currency to keep exports high. What is to stop them from doing it forever?
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Aug 12, 2015 16:14
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Well, you're going to see a fair bit of inflation as a result of that, b it maybe more importantly if you keep doing that you're kind of tossing out the "convert to a consumer economy" plan in favor of being the nation of cheap labor forever, which doesn't have as favorable long term prospects.
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Aug 12, 2015 16:15
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The Lord of Hats posted:Well, you're going to see a fair bit of inflation as a result of that, b it maybe more importantly if you keep doing that you're kind of tossing out the "convert to a consumer economy" plan in favor of being the nation of cheap labor forever, which doesn't have as favorable long term prospects. Also will tick off that ever-growing middle class that China considers so precious.
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Aug 12, 2015 16:17
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To be honest, devaluing currency is what all countries do when their economy starts taking a poo poo. That's what the fed does when it 'prints money' but it's more of an indirect way of doing it.
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Aug 12, 2015 16:34
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Vladimir Putin posted:To be honest, devaluing currency is what all countries do when their economy starts taking a poo poo. That's what the fed does when it 'prints money' but it's more of an indirect way of doing it. There's a difference between inflationary monetary policy for the purpose of Keynesian stimulus, and purposefully making your currency weaker than others to give you an edge in exports But yeah, like Lord of Hats said, this is pretty much them abandoning any pretense of the whole switching to a consumer economy thing. Not that the Chinese government cares about pretenses or has any shame at all, and they will probably keep right on trumpeting about it in public statements. As for responses by other countries, I don't think the US will do anything but I can see it setting off a trade war / slapfight between China, Japan, SK, Germany, etc, all states that do basically the same thing to leech off the teat of the US domestic market. That is, if the Chinese economy doesn't just up and implode, which nobody knows for sure isn't what's happening icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 16:50
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Vladimir Putin posted:To be honest, devaluing currency is what all countries do when their economy starts taking a poo poo. That's what the fed does when it 'prints money' but it's more of an indirect way of doing it. Unless you are in euro, I guess.
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Aug 12, 2015 16:51
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If the RMB were traded completely freely tomorrow, would the market regard it as overvalued or undervalued? My impression is that those who accuse China of both manipulating the RMB and keeping it undervalued wouldn't be very happy in that situation.
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Aug 12, 2015 16:54
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The "it's happening" thing was more because this looks like the beginning of a whole-economy slide with the stock market collapsing despite insane measures to prop it up and now central bank measures to prop up the export sector that was already slumping and looking overcapacity. I don't think the economy is going to improve.
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Aug 12, 2015 16:58
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Please don't hurt the Feelings of the Chinese Economy.
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Aug 12, 2015 17:03
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Arglebargle III posted:The "it's happening" thing was more because this looks like the beginning of a whole-economy slide with the stock market collapsing despite insane measures to prop it up and now central bank measures to prop up the export sector that was already slumping and looking overcapacity. I don't think the economy is going to improve. Easy, just say the GDP grew 7% next year - instant growth!
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Aug 12, 2015 17:07
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Arglebargle III posted:The "it's happening" thing was more because this looks like the beginning of a whole-economy slide with the stock market collapsing despite insane measures to prop it up and now central bank measures to prop up the export sector that was already slumping and looking overcapacity. I don't think the economy is going to improve. Oil will be cheaper. Also I don't think that the Chinese government cares about transitioning to a consumer oriented economy if it means risking the possibility of an economic slide and subsequent social unrest.
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Aug 12, 2015 17:12
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Yeah oil is cheap NOW. Oil prices are volatile and those export industries are faltering and everyone agrees they're unsustainable anyway.
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Aug 12, 2015 17:18
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Vladimir Putin posted:Oil will be cheaper. Also I don't think that the Chinese government cares about transitioning to a consumer oriented economy if it means risking the possibility of an economic slide and subsequent social unrest. Isn't this choice pretty much the middle income trap in a nutshell?
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Aug 12, 2015 17:58
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Shifty Pony posted:Isn't this choice pretty much the middle income trap in a nutshell? The classic middle income countries, Latin American ones, are all more-or-less democracies that aren't pathologically obsessed with social stability, so no not really. Not that China isn't headed for stagnation, but I don't think the causes are that similar. China is more of a Japan-style stagnation than a Brazil-style one, and IMO that's significantly worse icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 18:00
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To top it all off a colossal explosion seems to have gone off in Tianjin - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lDDdhZhdVU China really is having a bad week.
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Aug 12, 2015 18:46
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ukle posted:To top it all off a colossal explosion seems to have gone off in Tianjin - Jesus...  Can't find anything in the news about it other than it um, happened. I really hope they managed to evacuate the surrounding area well before that because yeah, if not the news when it comes through will likely be not good at all. dr_rat fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 18:59
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Fireworks factory?
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Aug 12, 2015 19:07
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Pimpmust posted:Fireworks factory? Port oil depot, wonder how much the rest of the port has been damaged. edit: Other sources say was a container ship, but that's no container ship explosion unless it was one of the biggest in the world and was full of fertiliser. ukle fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 19:18
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Pimpmust posted:Fireworks factory? Petrol storage station, according to the BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-33896292
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Aug 12, 2015 19:22
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Hmm, the official Chinese line is that it was explosive material in a container. https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/631522459452317696 There is only one type of materials powerful enough to do that kind of explosion that could fit inside one container. I assume its a lost in translation issue and they aren't suggesting it was a nuke. edit on second though if you filled a container full of say Semtex, that would be a LOT of Semtex and it could well do it, but then again why the gently caress would you fill a container full of any explosive. Definitely a lost in translation issue. ukle fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 19:34
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ukle posted:Hmm, the official Chinese line is that it was explosive material in a container. Could be a container ship transporting construction explosives.
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Aug 12, 2015 19:38
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This video is closer and more complete. http://video.weibo.com/show?fid=1034%3Adc65aafd8a97629626a8b7c27c9d38ff
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Aug 12, 2015 19:49
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Fuschia tude posted:This video is closer and more complete. http://video.weibo.com/show?fid=1034%3Adc65aafd8a97629626a8b7c27c9d38ff It looks like China will be needing more oil imports
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Aug 12, 2015 20:00
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Vladimir Putin posted:Could be a container ship transporting construction explosives. That seems to be the latest line coming out of Chinese state media, and makes more sense. Also its very similar to how other big explosions in history have been caused, would of thought they would have learned the lessons from the past of other countries but then again this is China.
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Aug 12, 2015 20:02
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I hope nobody got hurt, but that explosion loving ruled. Someone probably died horribly though.
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Aug 12, 2015 20:21
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Someone will be losing face over this
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Aug 12, 2015 20:24
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I'm sure there were multiple people who lost faces.
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Aug 12, 2015 20:29
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Jumpingmanjim posted:Someone will be losing face over this  For content: The stock market in the morning's going to be a thrilling ride.
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Aug 12, 2015 20:39
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TheBuilder posted:I hope nobody got hurt, but that explosion loving ruled. 5 km radius for the second explosion. 
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Aug 12, 2015 21:27
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China's earthquake admin is saying based on seismic data that it was equivalent to ~21 tons of TNT. There are reports of injuries due to being knocked down or shattered glass nearly 10km away. The location is near residential apartments and given the time casualties are going to be very high if they weren't on the ball about evacuating them at the first sign of trouble. All media is blocked from the area.
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Aug 12, 2015 21:27
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Estimated 7,000-70,000 casualties
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Aug 12, 2015 21:29
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 http://sendvid.com/i7pcfexm No gore but... Goddamn Description so you don't have to click: reasonably close shot of explosion from viewpoint looking over the top of several buildings. When the explosion occurs the buildings disintegrate like something out of Independence Day and the video halts. I'd guess it was streaming at the time of the explosion and someone captured it to post. From the looks of it nobody at the videographer's position could have survived to upload it. Shifty Pony fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Aug 12, 2015 |
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Aug 12, 2015 21:31
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Shifty Pony posted:China's earthquake admin is saying based on seismic data that it was equivalent to ~21 tons of TNT. On that video I linked there were apartment blocks visible that appear not to be there after the major blast. Hard to tell for certain with the light / darkness, but its difficult to imagine there wont be a lot of casualties from this. Also it turns out its not a ship, but a Explosives storage warehouse - that they thought to locate in the middle of a large international Port! Seriously China is hosed up at times but this is new levels of loving up.
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Aug 12, 2015 21:32
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Redgrendel2001 posted:5 km radius for the second explosion.  The 2nd explosion was at least 2x the height of the apartments
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Aug 12, 2015 21:34
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I never thought I'd see an explosion that made Pepcon look small, but I guess explosives warehouse beats rocket fuel plant. Jesus Christ.
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Aug 12, 2015 21:38
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So would this be bigger or smaller than the texas city disaster?
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Aug 12, 2015 21:41
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