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pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

On that note, Brown Moses or anyone else, is there a handy resource to look at what kind of aircraft-borne bombs the government has in its arsenal? I thought the impetus behind barrel bombs is that helicopters cost less than jet aircraft to fly by hour, and that barrel bombs were created in pursuit of a munition that transport helis could drop.

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Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006

"..The high ground"

Xerxes17 posted:

Why the gently caress would Syria be buying MiG-31s? :what:

It's probably something they already paid for.

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Xerxes17 posted:

Why the gently caress would Syria be buying MiG-31s? :what:

Gotta spend that check from Iran somehow :v:

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Kinda hard to crash planes into busy markets at mach 2.83* without MiG-31 (or -25) now aint' it :colbert:





*Special high altitude markets

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Imapanda posted:

So the sinful allepo breadshops can be cleansed with greater efficiency

Mig-31's are interceptors

Dodoman
Feb 26, 2009



A moment of laxity
A lifetime of regret
Lipstick Apathy
The deal was made in '06 or '07 I think.

Homura and Sickle
Apr 21, 2013

Panzeh posted:

It's probably something they already paid for.

According to Iranian state media its under a contract signed in 2007, with 2 more jets to come later

Sucrose
Dec 9, 2009
What does the US pulling its Patriot missiles out of Turkey mean?

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Sucrose posted:

What does the US pulling its Patriot missiles out of Turkey mean?

Probably nothing, Isis doesn't have strategic missiles, and those were only placed in '13. I'm guessing redeployment that has something to do with Russia.

Nato also said in the statement that Turkey will receive them again if the threat arises.

ass struggle fucked around with this message at 11:18 on Aug 17, 2015

Baron FU
Apr 3, 2009

sparatuvs posted:

Nato also said in the statement that Turkey will receive them again if the threat arises.

Hopefully launched from outside Turkey warhead first.

Trogdos!
Jul 11, 2009

A DRAGON POKEMAN
well technically a water/flying type
It now is illegal in Egypt to intentionally report false information on militant/terrorist attacks - as in information that contradicts the official statements. But don't worry, the punishment is only a massive fine instead of imprisonment as it originally was planned.

Al Jazeera - Guardian

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

radical meme posted:



edit: let me just point out that in every other response to what I posted, people are either asking the U.S. for money, weapons, military action or some ephemeral tough talking diplomacy that would have to be backed up by blood and treasure in the sands of the ME. Somehow, fulfilling these requests will lead to a better ME. I believe this is wishful thinking. Someday there will be a better ME but, it's not going to be any time soon.

This is me catching up, but aren't we already involved militarily in Syria? I wasn't advocating an Iraq style ground invasion, but if we spent as much money and effort bombing Iraq and Syria in one day in the present, back in 2012-13 in an effort at real stabilization (outreach to promising groups, negotiations with Russia, China, and other foreign states, etc), maybe we wouldn't have what looks like an endless military campaign today.

Bait and Swatch
Sep 5, 2012

Join me, Comrades
In the Star Citizen D&D thread
Edit: My post was redundant. I should refresh the page more.

Invicta{HOG}, M.D.
Jan 16, 2002

Shageletic posted:

I wasn't advocating an Iraq style ground invasion, but if we spent as much money and effort bombing Iraq and Syria in one day in the present, back in 2012-13 in an effort at real stabilization (outreach to promising groups, negotiations with Russia, China, and other foreign states, etc), maybe we wouldn't have what looks like an endless military campaign today.

Who would you have bombed in 2012? Assad? If so, you would have had to deal with his air force, his air defense systems, and the ire of Russia.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

Who would you have bombed in 2012? Assad? If so, you would have had to deal with his air force, his air defense systems, and the ire of Russia.

Heaven help the US air force if it actually needs to fight an opponent armed with something other than small arms.

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

Who would you have bombed in 2012? Assad? If so, you would have had to deal with his air force, his air defense systems, and the ire of Russia.

Oh no, Russia has such great terms with the West at the moment.

Invicta{HOG}, M.D.
Jan 16, 2002

Morrow posted:

Heaven help the US air force if it actually needs to fight an opponent armed with something other than small arms.

And what happens if you decimate their forces but the opposition that forms is, say, a vicious Islamist force bent on establishing a Caliphate? Or if Assad doesn't fall and there is a stalemate on the ground?

BravestOfTheLamps
Oct 12, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
Lipstick Apathy

Trogdos! posted:

It now is illegal in Egypt to intentionally report false information on militant/terrorist attacks - as in information that contradicts the official statements. But don't worry, the punishment is only a massive fine instead of imprisonment as it originally was planned.

Al Jazeera - Guardian

But I'm sure it has the people's support, unlike Morsi apologists would have you think

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

And what happens if you decimate their forces but the opposition that forms is, say, a vicious Islamist force bent on establishing a Caliphate? Or if Assad doesn't fall and there is a stalemate on the ground?

All of which occurred anyway.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

BravestOfTheLamps posted:

But I'm sure it has the people's support, unlike Morsi apologists would have you think

Which is funny because Egypt has become decisively more illiberal under Sisi than it was under Morsi.

Invicta{HOG}, M.D.
Jan 16, 2002

Morrow posted:

All of which occurred anyway.

Exactly, so then what do we do? Continue to bomb ISIS as we are and let the rest of the country fight their civil war. Or, I guess, we'd also have to still be bombing Assad as well but we'd have to make sure that we were bombing them both the same because otherwise we'd have one side start winning. Or maybe we'd have to bomb one side more because it was winning and eventually enough bombs would lead to peace and reconciliation.

I'm always interested in hearing how much people think that we could have somehow just bombed the right place at the right time and prevented all of this but the chances are we would have bombed the wrong places at the wrong time and instead would be on the hook for another blood Middle East civil war.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Sucrose posted:

What does the US pulling its Patriot missiles out of Turkey mean?

The daily press here says they're going to the US for scheduled upgrades, though I have no idea whether that's true or not.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

Exactly, so then what do we do? Continue to bomb ISIS as we are and let the rest of the country fight their civil war. Or, I guess, we'd also have to still be bombing Assad as well but we'd have to make sure that we were bombing them both the same because otherwise we'd have one side start winning. Or maybe we'd have to bomb one side more because it was winning and eventually enough bombs would lead to peace and reconciliation.

I'm always interested in hearing how much people think that we could have somehow just bombed the right place at the right time and prevented all of this but the chances are we would have bombed the wrong places at the wrong time and instead would be on the hook for another blood Middle East civil war.

No matter how many times bombing for peace fails to work, the instinctive feeling that there has to be something we can do means there will always be people trying to make the case that this time will be different.

TheBalor
Jun 18, 2001
I feel like we could do something, but it would require such a comprehensive overhaul of our society and approach to international relations in general that it's about as useful as talking about whether the US ought switch to a five year plan or a four year plan system.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

I'm always interested in hearing how much people think that we could have somehow just bombed the right place at the right time and prevented all of this but the chances are we would have bombed the wrong places at the wrong time and instead would be on the hook for another blood Middle East civil war.

When your only favorite tool is a hammer missile every problem is a nail thing that would be better if it was blown up.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

Who would you have bombed in 2012? Assad? If so, you would have had to deal with his air force, his air defense systems, and the ire of Russia.

I wouldn't have bombed Assad. Bombing only leads to broken infrastructure, institutions, and structures. But if we spent a small percentage of what we currently do for military operations in the ME towards financing democractic activists, parties, and anyone willing to be on the ground in Syria and build a viable, non-extremist state, then the chances of us having to return to the area for yet another trillion dollar futile effort would have diminished. Asking for a Marshall Plan for the ME is naive, but at least post WWII we had leaders with clear enough vision to spend a penny today, to avoid spending a hundred tomorrow, even if it is not as automatically fulfilling launching JDAMS at people we hate.

EDIT: I think I've mentioned it before in this thread, but our militaristic stance overriding any peaceful foreign aid has repeatedly come to bite America in the rear end. The book State v. Defense is really good at pointing this out.

BravestOfTheLamps
Oct 12, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
Lipstick Apathy

suboptimal posted:

Which is funny because Egypt has become decisively more illiberal under Sisi than it was under Morsi.

That is, indeed, the proverbial joke.

Invicta{HOG}, M.D.
Jan 16, 2002

Shageletic posted:

I wouldn't have bombed Assad. Bombing only leads to broken infrastructure, institutions, and structures. But if we spent a small percentage of what we currently do for military operations in the ME towards financing democractic activists, parties, and anyone willing to be on the ground in Syria and build a viable, non-extremist state, then the chances of us having to return to the area for yet another trillion dollar futile effort would have diminished.

This sounds good (in theory, maybe not easy in practice) but I was responding to your call to "bomb Iraq and Syria" and I'm not sure who you'd be bombing in 2012.

Mans
Sep 14, 2011

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

Who would you have bombed in 2012? Assad? If so, you would have had to deal with his air force, his air defense systems, and the ire of Russia.

lmao Syria's famous air defenses.


remember when they installed AA bases on the bottom of valleys because putting them on top of hills would require extensive latrines and that's just too hard to do for the might Syrian army?

Invicta{HOG}, M.D.
Jan 16, 2002

Mans posted:

lmao Syria's famous air defenses.


remember when they installed AA bases on the bottom of valleys because putting them on top of hills would require extensive latrines and that's just too hard to do for the might Syrian army?

Right, the air defenses which would have to be neutralized prior to widespread bombing of Assad in 2012 in order to provide for a peaceful transition to democracy for the country so that everyone can live happily ever after.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

If we'd bombed Assad in 2012 then the posters decrying us not bombing Assad now would be really happy and not at all posting about how dare America launch another Mideast war of regime change.

Cocoa Ninja
Mar 3, 2007
A long form article on the three girls who left London for Syria and were widely publicized when CCTV footage of them crossing the Turkish - Syrian border appeared online.

What rises to the top most of all is how ISIS-sympathetic social media appeals to them, and creates a feeling that if they join they're actually being authentic to themselves.

When you feel like a minority for the way you look, talk, dress and where you worship, it's easy to see how ISIS in a perverse way offers both the act of rebellion (running away, rejecting the mainstream) and also feels faithful to your beliefs, which, per your family, are central to your identity (your muslim roots). And, to be charitable, that experience of finding solace in your unique history and culture is common and very human. We just have this weird new world of instant social media and a nation state being run by theocratic terrorists.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/world/europe/jihad-and-girl-power-how-isis-lured-3-london-teenagers.html

An excerpt:

NY Times posted:

These images turned the three Bethnal Green girls, as they have become known, into the face of a new, troubling phenomenon: young women attracted to what some experts are calling a jihadi, girl-power subculture. An estimated 4,000 Westerners have traveled to Syria and Iraq, more than 550 of them women and girls, to join the Islamic State, according to a recent report by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, which helps manage the largest database of female travelers to the region.

The men tend to become fighters much like previous generations of jihadists seeking out battlefields in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq. But less is known about the Western women of the Islamic State. Barred from combat, they support the group’s state-building efforts as wives, mothers, recruiters and sometimes online cheerleaders of violence.

Many are single and young, typically in their teens or early 20s (the youngest known was 13). Their profiles differ in terms of socioeconomic background, ethnicity and nationality, but often they are more educated and studious than their male counterparts. Security officials now say they may present as much of a threat to the West as the men: Less likely to be killed and more likely to lose a spouse in combat, they may try to return home, indoctrinated and embittered.

One in four of the women in the Institute for Strategic Dialogue’s database are already widowed. But if women are a strategic asset for the Islamic State, they are hardly ever considered in most aspects of Western counterterrorism.

goose willis
Jun 14, 2015

Get ready for teh wacky laughz0r!
What if they're letting this all drag on so that just in time for the next war they can say "see? THAT is what happens when you don't let us invade!"

:tinfoil:

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

suboptimal posted:

Which is funny because Egypt has become decisively more illiberal under Sisi than it was under Morsi.

Scary Muslims have a 3x illiberalism score multiplier.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

Best Friends posted:

If we'd bombed Assad in 2012 then the posters decrying us not bombing Assad now would be really happy and not at all posting about how dare America launch another Mideast war of regime change.

Morrow posted:

All of which occurred anyway.
I'm honestly not sure what (if any) solution to Syria was the best option, even with hindsight. On the tactical level, the US Military is loving terrifying, and it/a coalition could definitely take out Syria's air defenses (Libya had one of the best air defense systems in Africa, and the Libyan coalition still shredded it like paper) so the question becomes "how long would it take to take out Assad, and what would happen afterward"?

The longer it takes to remove/kill Assad, the more Syria looks like what it does currently today. Actually removing Assad would probably lead to Libya-style factional fighting, but it's definitely possible that the overall death toll/number of refugees would still be less than the 330,000 dead, 3 million refugees, 6.5 million internally displaced people that Syria's currently at, especially since the Civil War shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Syria would definitely still be a clusterfuck, but without Assad there likely wouldn't be the thousands of organized Barrel Bomb droppings on schools/markets/bakeries/other civilian areas, as one example.

Syria might also look more like Egypt, but honestly that would probably still be an improvement over the status quo too, which is kinda sad. Basically, it's kinda difficult to see a worse option than the status quo. Like Shageletic posted, a Marshall Plan would probably have been/be the best strategy, but yeah :lol: good luck at getting anything like that in the current political climate.

In non-hypothetical news:

ISIL is once again pushing on Mare/Azaz/FSA lines in northern Syria, so Erdogan's/Turkey's hypothetical "safe zone" plans look to be going down in flames. Turkey absolutely does not want to send its own troops in, so we'll have to see if the FSA can stop ISIL's advance like they did last time. Reminder that Azaz is one of the Northern FSA's main supply lines, so any serious disruption to that line would have far-reaching consequences.

Also in the general Aleppo vicinity:
https://twitter.com/Abduhark/status/632989232164904961

quote:

#YPG forms a new force in Shiekh Maqsoud neighborhood in the liberated part of #Aleppo

fade5 fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Aug 17, 2015

Mans
Sep 14, 2011

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
apparently the turks are torturing and raping female PKK fighters

let ISIS kill the turks, they were made for each other

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



If the FSA loses out in the northwest, they've got nothing left except a few pockets near the Jordanian border, right? Nearly the entire opposition will be made up of jihadists. I wonder if ISIS is going to try to push into explicit al-Nusra terrtiroy as well.

Yadoppsi
May 10, 2009

Mans posted:

apparently the turks are torturing and raping female PKK fighters

let ISIS kill the turks, they were made for each other

source?

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

kustomkarkommando posted:

uh oh


Maliki is already slated to lose his VP post as part of the anti-corruption shake up Abadi announced last week. Today Abadi also announced court martial proceedings against the military commanders responsible for the Ramadi withdrawal earlier in the year so following the recommendations of the report are not out of the question. The street, and Sistani, are backing Abadi in his current aggressive reform efforts in the last week so Maliki may indeed be in a spot of bother. He's currently visiting Iran so he may extend his stay a couple of days...

Also, I've seen some twitter stuff about a delegation of Gorran MP's in Iraqi Kurdistan being stopped at a KDP roadblock and turned around while attempting to reach Erbil for crisis talks about the KRG Presidential elections. I'm not sure if these have been mentioned in the thread but Barzani's term officially ends on August 20th, the KDP are attempting to push through an extension of Barzani's term in office citing the security situation (he already managed to wrangle a 2 year extension without elections back in 2013) but the PUK and Gorran are resisting and are attempting to push through reforms to shift the KRG away from a presidential model to a parliamentary model (like the rest of Iraq) where the president is elected by parliament as opposed to a popular vote. It's unclear who exactly will succeed with the balance of power in parliament falling to the Kurdish Islamic parties who could split either way. Gorran are arguing that as soon as Barzani's term expires the position shifts to the speaker of the house until elections are held while the KDP insist that Barzani will stay president until new elections are held. Snap elections haven't been ruled out.

Not sure what to make of this being announced while he's Iran.

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Vernii
Dec 7, 2006

Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:

Who would you have bombed in 2012? Assad? If so, you would have had to deal with his air force, his air defense systems, and the ire of Russia.

The Syrian Air Force is a complete joke, their AA network only slightly less. The only serious issue in that hypothetical would be the Russian reaction, and they wouldn't start a war with NATO over Syria.

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