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That kicker run in the 10 just depresses me.
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Aug 17, 2015 01:14
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Papes posted:That kicker run in the 10 just depresses me. I didn't understand it myself. Even the experienced guys panicked and went all in on it. Except for me.
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Aug 17, 2015 01:20
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89 posted:Pearce won, right? Brad had the best draft for the six first rounds, but Pearce gets bonus points for avoiding the idiotic kicker run.
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Aug 17, 2015 01:20
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Forever_Peace posted:Brad had the best draft for the six first rounds, but Pearce gets bonus points for avoiding the idiotic kicker run. Hilariously, Brad was "autodrafted". Except the Aglohor was kind of a bullshit pick, but his rep picked him so whatever.
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Aug 17, 2015 01:21
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89 posted:Hilariously, Brad was "autodrafted". Except the Aglohor was kind of a bullshit pick, but his rep picked him so whatever. Expect Agholor to go way too early. A. Abdullah as well.
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Aug 17, 2015 01:23
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 I like to think I'll hit on one of the combination of my late licks of CJ Spiller, Gio, and Foster 89 fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Aug 17, 2015 |
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Aug 17, 2015 01:26
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89 posted:Hilariously, Brad was "autodrafted". Except the Aglohor was kind of a bullshit pick, but his rep picked him so whatever. Hey man it takes human foibles to let Dez drop nearly to the third round. Rankings list has that poo poo on lockdown. And I thought that Agholor pick looked funny, but I chalked it up to homerism or something. His full draft is fragile though. An injury or two derails the whole team. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 01:36 on Aug 17, 2015 |
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Aug 17, 2015 01:34
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Green going in the third is criminal.
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Aug 17, 2015 01:44
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the_american_dream posted:Can anyone help me out with setting my draft pick order in 4for4s draft simulator? Cant find it anywhere in the settings Anyone? I know a couple of guys recommended the site
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Aug 17, 2015 01:46
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District Selectman posted:CJ Anderson was an undrafted free agent has 8 starts and 186 carries in his NFL career Did you watch any actual tape of Anderson last year or are we doing the "sample size" song-and-dance here
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Aug 17, 2015 01:48
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Forever_Peace posted:Hey man it takes human foibles to let Dez drop nearly to the third round. Rankings list has that poo poo on lockdown. Yeah...lots of Eagles fans in the draft..
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Aug 17, 2015 02:43
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kiimo posted:My girlfriend drafted for the first time. She knows absolutely zero about football, much less fantasy football. So I printed off a beer sheet for her PPR league and I must say it could have been a lot worse. gently caress yes BeerSheets helping the people.
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Aug 17, 2015 04:09
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89 posted:
It's like gazing into the future of my family draft this weekend. Manning before OBJ. TE run in the 6th. A loving kicker run in the 10th. Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley in the 7th. Someone going with the brilliant plan of backing up Rodgers with Brees. Pearce drafted Tannehill in the 6th. Nobody won.
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Aug 17, 2015 04:19
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:
*A* loving kicker?
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Aug 17, 2015 04:25
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:It's like gazing into the future of my family draft this weekend. I love stuff like this. My all-time favorite draft happened last year: Kaepernick went third overall, Gostkowski went at the 2/3 turn, and Gronk was taken in the middle of round 5. It was "live" draft on google hangouts which made it even better. The owners declared it "wine hour", they started an impromptu competition to find the ugliest person on NFL.com, and we held a vote for punniest team name. Best league ever. If I could only be a part of one league each year it'd be this one and I wouldn't think twice.
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Aug 17, 2015 04:34
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kiimo posted:My girlfriend drafted for the first time. She knows absolutely zero about football, much less fantasy football. So I printed off a beer sheet for her PPR league and I must say it could have been a lot worse.
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Aug 17, 2015 04:38
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Forever_Peace posted:I love stuff like this. Well if you love that, here's my cluster gently caress of a 14 man, .5ppr, auction draft last night. 
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Aug 17, 2015 04:43
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89 posted:
Foster in the 13th? Has he really fallen that far?
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Aug 17, 2015 04:47
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OxySnake posted:Foster in the 13th? He's probably missing half the season minimum. Frustrated posted:Well if you love that, here's my cluster gently caress of a 14 man, .5ppr, auction draft last night. Can I buy some drugs from you
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Aug 17, 2015 04:48
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Frustrated posted:Well if you love that, here's my cluster gently caress of a 14 man, .5ppr, auction draft last night. Amazing. Tell Roland kudos for swinging for the goddamned fences. All of the RBs on the entire team: Ellington, Gurley, McFadden. There is a universe where these three are studs this year. Also kind of want to know why Kyle picked up Brady and Big Ben, passed on all the running backs for the first 80 nominations, and then was like "gently caress yeah Tony Romo lets do this". Chinchillas looking fierce. Doni too, though it sucks about Foster.
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Aug 17, 2015 04:57
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89 posted:
My money is on Brad.
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Aug 17, 2015 05:06
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Since there is all this talk about CJ let me get some peoples opinion. I am taking over a keeper team and the only player really worth keeping is CJ for my 12th. Is it worth also giving up my 11th so I can keep Hillman as well? My roster is as follows. No keepers from the first 2 rounds, a keeper cost 1 round higher or the 12 from the 13th up and undrafted. Mark Sanchez, undrafted. Julian Edelman, 5th round. Denard Robinson, undrafted. Frank Gore, 3rd round. Steven Jackson, 6th round. Jimmy Graham, 1st round. CJ Anderson, undrafted. Colin Kaepernick, 4th round. Larry Fitzgerald, 2nd round. Justin Hunter, 7th round. Ronnie Hillman, undrafted. Zach Ertz, 8th round. Adrian Peterson, 1st round. Adam Vinatieri, 14th round. Cincinnati DEF, 13th round.
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Aug 17, 2015 05:07
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Frustrated posted:Well if you love that, here's my cluster gently caress of a 14 man, .5ppr, auction draft last night. Am I reading this wrong? Someone drafted a kicker fifth overall? And then 9th overall was a D/ST? And then another kicker in the first goddamn round? 8 kickers in the first three rounds? Wait, was this an auction draft? Tell me it was an auction draft.
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Aug 17, 2015 05:12
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^ auction draft Alex Smith just got released!!
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Aug 17, 2015 05:14
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Forever_Peace posted:
His excuse was he got caught price enforcing on Romo. But even buying Big Ben and Brady was too much in a 14 man league. He could have turned the $30-$35 he spent on two of his QB's on a 2nd tier RB and had a very scary team. We all laughed at him for most of the night.
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Aug 17, 2015 05:57
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Suave Fedora posted:^ auction draft I was hoping it was a kicker premium league
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Aug 17, 2015 06:04
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As a Jamaal owner would you trade Seferian-Jenkins for Knile Davis? I was first pick so Davis got sniped in one of those long non-pick periods. I have Martellus as my actual TE.
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Aug 17, 2015 13:43
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Possible sneaky start this year for those of you streaming TEs: Scott Chandler week 7 vs. Jets, week 8 vs. Dolphins, and week 10 @ Giants. Redzone targets and snap share in weeks 4 and 5 (Jags and Cowboys) should be an indicator, even though the game script for those probably doesn't require Chandler to play big. Week 6 vs Colts is a maybe. Belichick is always going to come at teams at their weak points, and they play a string of teams in the middle of the season with sub-par linebacker groups. I particularly like Chandler against the Jets: they have a stout line and are beyond loaded at corner, so it makes sense to let the corners just jog around covering scrubs like Dobson and Amendola (lol) while Brady keeps firing quick passes to Gronk and Chandler over the middle before the D-Line can get pressure. It's a matchup nightmare for the Jets - Chandler is 6'7 and Gronk is probably an immortal demigod.
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Aug 17, 2015 14:15
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89 posted:
Jimmy dropped the ball, coulda had AP, McCoy and ODB
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Aug 17, 2015 15:19
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Players I am targeting in my 'real' league: Big Ben Lacy J Stewart Hyde Sankey Miller Bridgewater (late if I can get newly installed keepers to go by round, he would pair with Brady if I go this route) K Davis to steal from JC owner when he dies again this year Players I don't like: Cincy RB's Det RB's ANY RBC Now you guys can tell me I am dumb, thanks!
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Aug 17, 2015 15:27
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timmmmaaaah posted:As a Jamaal owner would you trade Seferian-Jenkins for Knile Davis? is this a serious question? of course you should. you would be trading a backup TE in a class where anybody not in the top 3 is a crapshoot for the handcuff to your #1 RB and your 1st overall draft selection.
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Aug 17, 2015 16:28
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Michael Corleone posted:Players I am targeting in my 'real' league: I'm not sure what you're expecting us to say here, dude. It's trivially true that all of the early-round guys have a price where they would be a smart pickup. Unless you're trying to argue that these guys are being overlooked or something and are thus worth reaching for (which I don't think you are?), I'm not really sure there's anything productive to say in the absence of context. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Except Abdullah's gonna own, so that's your bad Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:40 on Aug 17, 2015 |
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Aug 17, 2015 16:35
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Ya, I want him. But ya, just what I am personally targeting or my want list. But, want you guys to be the first to know of this hidden secret to winning a title being talked up in ESPN draft chats: The Gronk/Graham pairing in standard leagues! e; Just want to be risk adverse with upside I guess is what I was trying to say. Went Lacy 1-1 in a redraft league because Bell missing 2 games is not something I want. That is all. Would love Abdullah, but really am trying to get Duke Johnson a lot, I think he will take the Browns job, may get vultured by The Crow, but that is fine with a late mid-round pick. e2; He is the only Brown I am targeting, FYI 
Michael Corleone fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Aug 17, 2015 |
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Aug 17, 2015 16:40
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PM me if you have any openings in cash money leagues. Up to $50, (any format).
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Aug 17, 2015 16:50
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Help me figure out a not-poo poo way to establish tiers. The basic idea of your tiers as far as I can tell is you're trying to account for variance in the data to bucket players such that the top player in the tier's projection is not statistically significantly different than the bottom players. The best way to approach this would be to think of X as the higher players distribution and Y as the comparison players distribution, we want to find the probability that X > Y given the mean and variance of both distributions. This is equivalent to finding the probability that the joint distribution X - Y is equal to 0. I'm not sure how you create your projections, but assuming that X and Y are both roughly normal random variables then the joint distribution (X-Y) would also be a normal random variable where mean(X-Y) = Mean(X) - Mean(Y) and variance(X-Y) = Variance(X) + Variance(Y). Once you get your new mean and variance, you can figure out the probability that joint distribution is greater than 0, and compare that probability to whatever statistical significance you want. Using your current rule of one standard deviation would be about a 68% statistical significance. Based on how the tiers are defined, a 50% significance might be more appropriate. A 50% significance would be the equivalent of saying that given the projections, you might as well flip a coin to pick between the two players. Let me know if this helps! Reik fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Aug 17, 2015 |
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Aug 17, 2015 18:42
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Reik posted:The basic idea of your tiers as far as I can tell is you're trying to account for variance in the data to bucket players such that the top player in the tier's projection is not statistically significantly different than the bottom players. The best way to approach this would be to think of X as the higher players distribution and Y as the comparison players distribution, we want to find the probability that X > Y given the mean and variance of both distributions. This is equivalent to finding the probability that the joint distribution X - Y is equal to 0. I'm not sure how you create your projections, but assuming that X and Y are both roughly normal random variables then the joint distribution (X-Y) would also be a normal random variable where mean(X-Y) = Mean(X) - Mean(Y) and variance(X-Y) = Variance(X) + Variance(Y). Once you get your new mean and variance, you can figure out the probability that joint distribution is greater than 0, and compare that probability to whatever statistical significance you want. Using your current rule of one standard deviation would be about a 68% statistical significance. Based on how the tiers are defined, a 50% significance might be more appropriate. A 50% significance would be the equivalent of saying that given the projections, you might as well flip a coin to pick between the two players. Let me know if this helps! Projections are from 13 "expert" sources (FBG, CBS, 4For4, etc). So if I'm understanding you right, your suggestion is that I do the following: 1. Take the difference in means between two players to get the joint mean. 2. Combine the variance of the two players to get the joint variance. 3. Using the joint mean and joint variance, determine the probability that there is no difference (the joint mean is 0). 4. If the probability is less than 50%, put them in the same bucket. 5. If the probability is greater than 50%, create a new bucket and start over. Is that correct? What I was originally doing was taking the two means and two standard deviations. If two two means were within the greater of the two standard deviations, then I assumed they were in the same bucket.
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Aug 17, 2015 19:24
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Projections are from 13 "expert" sources (FBG, CBS, 4For4, etc). So if I'm understanding you right, your suggestion is that I do the following: Yeah, if the projections are close enough to normal, you can just use the NORM.DIST function in excel setting x to 0 and cumulative to true. Reik fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Aug 17, 2015 |
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Aug 17, 2015 19:47
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That could work, but the tiers may come out a bit strange sometimes because you're comparing every player to the first player in a tier. Like, consider if the first player happens to be Martavis or Randle. You'd get a bigger than normal tier because the initial variance happened to be high. You might also get some sudden cutoffs, where two players might be indistinguishable from one another, but one barely makes it into the higher tier while the other becomes the start of the lower tier. Probably the "best" way to do 1D discretizing here is "kernel density estimation", followed by "Jenks natural breaks optimization". Both have solutions in R and Python etc but might be tougher in excel...
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Aug 17, 2015 20:13
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Alright I wrote up some quick excel formula for you to try that at least fixes the problem of over-dependence on the player at the top of each tier. Essentially, what it does is make a moving average and a moving pooled standard error for any given tier, then checks to see if the new addition is distinguishable from these values. If it is not, it is added to the pool only if it doesn't depress the moving average enough to make the top player of the tier become significantly different from the moving average. Otherwise, it starts a new tier. Essentially, what you should get are tiers of players that are indistinguishable from their pooled average and pooled standard error. You will need player names (for players of the same position) in column B, mean projections in column C, and SDs in column D, with titles along row 1 and values starting from row 2. Sort the data by the mean projections, from highest to lowest. Title the following columns: column A will be tier (it must be column A for this to work), column E will be variance, column F will be pooled SE, and column G will be pooled average. Formula from E2 and down: =D2^2 From F3 and down (with one blank row): =SQRT(AVERAGEIF(A$2:A2,A2,E$2:E2)) From G3 and down (with one blank row): =AVERAGEIF(A$2:A2,A2,C$2:C2) A2: 1 From A3 and down: =IF(C3>G3-F3,IF(VLOOKUP(A2,$A$2:$C$10,3,FALSE)<G3+F3,A2,A2+1),A2+1) Where the bolded portion of the A3 formula is a box containing your entire array of data from columns A, B, and C (I just made 9 rows of fake data to bang out the formulas so it only goes to row 10 - change the 10s here to whatever the last row of your data is). None of the formula will work until all three are done correctly. Let me know if it gives you any trouble.
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Aug 17, 2015 21:00
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The last two posts are making it clear why I haven't won a fantasy championship in over ten years.
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Aug 17, 2015 21:01
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