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Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Definitely send me the code. I have been learning VBA for Excel macros and need a new challenge.

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Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Spoeank posted:

How many teams/where did you pick?

Sankey and Harvin will be on the waiver wire by week four. Gordon was a bit shaky throughout camp and in week one but Martin has apparently been usable in camp so that's somewhat mitigated. I like Fitz more than most this year so he's a great option as a WR5. Your WRs are strong and your RBs are shaky, in short.

Also your TE situation is questionable.

Only if he gets hurt

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Definitely send me the code. I have been learning VBA for Excel macros and need a new challenge.

Sure. Most of the heavy lifting is done by various existing commands here that were already written into my python install (pythonXY), but there's a chance people have already written VBscripts for this stuff as well if you google around.

Apologies in advance for the table-breaking.

code:
#special packages I utilized
from scipy.stats import gaussian_kde
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd

trialdata = KDE_trial1csv    #I was lazy and opened the csv with all the data through menus, then named it "trialdata". This is just the excel sheet you sent me.

def getbins(values):
    kde = gaussian_kde(values)    #imposes a kernel density estimation on the data you feed into it (intended to be the "AVERAGE" column eventually)
    lower = min(values)-1
    upper = max(values)+1
    x_grid = np.linspace(lower, upper, 1000)        #populates a thousand evenly-spaced "grid points" along the x-axis for me to use in order to find the local minimums easily
    kde.set_bandwidth(0.035)       #sets the bandwidth factor for the KDE. 0.035 looks good but you can set this to whatever
    a = kde.evaluate(x_grid)           #uses the KDE to find the estimated density at each of the thousand points along the x-axis
    print plt.plot(a)                             #prints a plot so I can see the peaks and valleys
    mins = np.r_[True, a[1:] < a[:-1]] & np.r_[a[:-1] < a[1:], True]        #finds the density values (i.e. on the y-axis) that are the local minimums (i.e. smaller than the points on either side of it)
    cutoff_array = np.where(mins)            #finds the positions within the "x_grid" where those minimum values occurred (e.g. "the 54th point, the 134th point, the 189th point" etc)
    cutoffs = [(float(i)*(upper-lower)/1000+lower) for i in cutoff_array[0].tolist()]          #Translating the "x_grid positions" from the previous line back into the original scale to get cutoff points
    binlabels = pd.cut(trialdata["AVERAGE"], cutoffs, labels=range(len(cutoffs)-1,0,-1))      #use those cutoff points to make bins, labeled in reverse order so that the highest valued bin is tier 1.
    return binlabels
    
trialdata["Tier"] = getbins(trialdata["AVERAGE"])         #runs the script to make a new "Tier" column using data from the "AVERAGE" column.
Beer, one of these days you're going to let me work with you to code Beersheets into a python script and it will be a revelation. Best way to learn to code is to solve a problem you already care about. :v:

CompeAnansi
Feb 1, 2011

I respectfully decline
the invitation to join
your hallucination
Alright. First overall pick in a standard scoring league. Who do you take?

Right now I'm split between Bell, AP, and Charles. Leaning Bell, though, even with the suspension.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah

CompeAnansi posted:

Alright. First overall pick in a standard scoring league. Who do you take?

Right now I'm split between Bell, AP, and Charles. Leaning Bell, though, even with the suspension.

I like Charles myself, even in non-ppr, though the other two are also fine. He is just so impeccably reliable, has no red flags (suspension, possible rust etc), and has a solid handcuff for protection.

Consensus rankings have him third, but with a crazy low variance (so everybody uniformly agrees that he should be near the top).

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames

RCarr posted:

Anyone here ever do a Yahoo Pro ($20) public league?

I figured I'd give it a shot. I'm hoping the competition is terrible.

I too am interested in this. I would play in your league RCarr but I think that would defeat the point of taking all our goon knowledge and wrecking pubbies. Is this a fair payout structure? Can I find a better one, the ones here are basically full.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Tiptoes posted:

Pfft. "Minimizing risk" only gets you so far. You have to adapt quickly in this game and half of the fun for me is being willing to go out on a limb for certain guys. RBs are just inherently risky to begin with. Even Eddie Lacy could wind up getting a high ankle sprain and become a liability. But when I look at CJA's three-down ability and Kubiak's excellent running games over the last several years, I see a guy who could wind up being the #1 RB at the end of the year. I have zero problem taking a player like that in the first.

I understand your point about taking some risk, but at the 1st round you really need to preserve that pick for someone most likely to produce at a high level rather than someone pretty likely to produce at a high level.

Basically all we're arguing at this point is what our/your risk tolerance should be, and that's like asking someone to like a specific ice cream flavor. If you have a high risk tolerance for the first two rounds, then do whatever makes you warm in the pants because it's your team. I've personally whiffed on too many high-upside guys in the early rounds that I no longer draft as riskily as I used to and prefer to make my risky moves in later rounds where the potential for disaster is less amplified.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

CompeAnansi posted:

Alright. First overall pick in a standard scoring league. Who do you take?

Right now I'm split between Bell, AP, and Charles. Leaning Bell, though, even with the suspension.

Take PPR out of the equation and I go AP because He Mad. The OL is not that good but Purple Jesus will part the sea.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

CompeAnansi posted:

Alright. First overall pick in a standard scoring league. Who do you take?

Right now I'm split between Bell, AP, and Charles. Leaning Bell, though, even with the suspension.

I picked third and it went: AP, Bell, Charles.

I would have preferred AP, then Charles, then Bell. As good as Bell is, the two-week suspension is a not-insignificant handicap. So much so that I initially shat my pants when I saw I was opening Wk 1 against Bell's owner, then realized he would be SSPD and broke into my happy dance.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Michael Corleone posted:

I too am interested in this. I would play in your league RCarr but I think that would defeat the point of taking all our goon knowledge and wrecking pubbies. Is this a fair payout structure? Can I find a better one, the ones here are basically full.

The payout structure is $100 for first, $60 for second, and $20 for third. I'd prefer more for 1st place, but I guess it's not too bad. They actually throw you in a random league when you join, so I don't think we could play together, even if we wanted to. The yahoo rankings seem really weird, I'm hoping to take advantage of that. I draft tonight at 8, so I'll let you know how it goes.

Amergin
Jan 29, 2013

THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

CompeAnansi posted:

Alright. First overall pick in a standard scoring league. Who do you take?

Right now I'm split between Bell, AP, and Charles. Leaning Bell, though, even with the suspension.

In standard, I'd go Charles > AP > Bell - Bell would take 1st in a PPR.

Anyone have any good DFS effort posts I could read? I've done general DFS strategy and theory reading (there's tons of stuff out there) but goons always have a more entertaining take on these things IMHO.

Paint Crop Pro
Mar 22, 2007

Find someone who values you like Rick Spielman values 7th round picks.



Amergin posted:

In standard, I'd go Charles > AP > Bell - Bell would take 1st in a PPR.

Anyone have any good DFS effort posts I could read? I've done general DFS strategy and theory reading (there's tons of stuff out there) but goons always have a more entertaining take on these things IMHO.

Check back a few pages I think someone linked a page where you could dl 4for4s guide on dfs leagues.

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames

RCarr posted:

The payout structure is $100 for first, $60 for second, and $20 for third. I'd prefer more for 1st place, but I guess it's not too bad. They actually throw you in a random league when you join, so I don't think we could play together, even if we wanted to. The yahoo rankings seem really weird, I'm hoping to take advantage of that. I draft tonight at 8, so I'll let you know how it goes.

Cool, let me know. I am going to try an auction one, if I can find it, I know they had them for Baseball a couple years ago when I looked into it, but then everything got wrecked and they started the Pro Leagues like close to halfway through the season this year iirc from the FBB threads.

A Man and his dog
Oct 24, 2013

by R. Guyovich
Soooo was I wrong for taking Lacy with my first pick?

Paint Crop Pro
Mar 22, 2007

Find someone who values you like Rick Spielman values 7th round picks.



A Man and his dog posted:

Soooo was I wrong for taking Lacy with my first pick?

A good back on a good team with a legendary QB? No that is still a good pick.

If your early in the first take whichever player you like.

There seems to be 2 competing theories for first round drafting with a lot of grey in between.

Minimize risk, and grab a player with a high ceiling.

Lacy checks both boxes.

Paint Crop Pro fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Aug 18, 2015

the_american_dream
Apr 12, 2008

GAHDAMN
So, just checking, but the rule for 2 QB leagues/Superflex is always go QB/QB first 100 percent of the time no matter what right?

Zypher
Sep 3, 2009

Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!
Pretty much, yeah

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Michael Corleone posted:

Cool, let me know. I am going to try an auction one, if I can find it, I know they had them for Baseball a couple years ago when I looked into it, but then everything got wrecked and they started the Pro Leagues like close to halfway through the season this year iirc from the FBB threads.

They definitely do have auction leagues. I was going to do that, but I've never done an auction draft before and I pussed out.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

the_american_dream posted:

So, just checking, but the rule for 2 QB leagues/Superflex is always go QB/QB first 100 percent of the time no matter what right?

Nah, I don't think so. First, how many teams? The more teams there are, the more you need to go QB/QB to ensure you have two quality starters. 1.01 and 1.02 should 100% be Rodgers and Luck. Somewhere in the next 15 picks should be Wilson, Peyton, Ryan, Newton, Brees, maybe Roethlisberger. But if you're like pick 5 through 8 or so and Rodgers, Luck, Wilson, and Peyton are already gone, I'd easily take a top RB. If I was pick 3, I'd be tempted to go for a top RB over any QB besides Rodgers and Luck.

Gyshall
Feb 24, 2009

Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.
If anyone is interested, I started a thread for a new 12/14 Team PPR Auction League here -

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3737218

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

the_american_dream posted:

So, just checking, but the rule for 2 QB leagues/Superflex is always go QB/QB first 100 percent of the time no matter what right?

One would think so, but the answer as always is it depends. If you look at ADP there are a lot of QBs that go later and still produce value.

Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Metapod posted:

Only if he gets hurt

He's going to get David Cobb'd, regardless of his health. Sankey just sucks.

Papes
Apr 13, 2010

There's always something at the bottom of the bag.

Franks Happy Place posted:

He's going to get David Cobb'd, regardless of his health. Sankey just sucks.

Could not disagree more.

Gearman
Dec 6, 2011

the_american_dream posted:

So, just checking, but the rule for 2 QB leagues/Superflex is always go QB/QB first 100 percent of the time no matter what right?

I've been in a 2QB, 3WR, 0.5PPR Keeper league for a few years now. This was my draft strategy last year:

1.05 - Jamaal Charles (keeper)
2.06 - Cam Newton
3.05 - Colin Kaepernick
4.06 - Marshawn Lynch (keeper)
5.05 - Matt Ryan

In retrospect, I probably should have passed on either Newton or Kaepernick because there were guys like Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Le'veon Bell were all still available before Newton/Kaep. Given that it's a 3WR league, I probably should have grabbed a top tier WR instead, and then gone for #3QB much later. I could have grabbed Eli Manning or Roethlisberger around the 7th/8th or even Ryan Tannehill in the 11th. My WR's were, quite literally, dogshit. Thankfully I was able to flip Matt Ryan for a top-tier WR, but I would never, ever, recommend drafting with the intent to trade that player. I just got very lucky that my league mates don't draft very well for a 2QB format.

In short, I'd recommend trying to scoop up your first two QBs within the first five or six rounds (depending on value). You don't want to be the guy having to trot out Derek Carr every week because you waited until the 8th round for your second QB. That's also not even accounting for the fact that you need a fill-in for two weeks if your QBs have different bye weeks.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

RCarr posted:

You would have been fine at 6. Giving up a 2nd round pick to move up 5 spots in the first makes no sense.

You traded a first and a second round pick for a first round pick.

Based on what players are left it really is giving up a third round pick value to get a top three player. Besides that it is the last pick of the third round. Look at the players available.

Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Papes posted:

Could not disagree more.

Rotoworld posted:

Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt said Saturday that fifth-round pick David Cobb will get action with the first-team offense this preseason.

Whisenhunt talked up Cobb's "vision" and "feet" in addition to his cutting ability for a 230-pound back. Whiz said he believes Cobb "deserves" a chance to run with the Marcus Mariota group. Pedestrian incumbent Bishop Sankey got that treatment in Friday night's preseason opener, but managed 15 yards on eight carries and also appeared to blow a screen-pass assignment, resulting in Mariota's interception. Cobb capitalized on his opportunity with the twos, gaining 53 yards on 11 runs and adding a one-yard reception. Ultimately, the Titans' backfield is likely to end up as a multi-back committee.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

kiimo posted:

Based on what players are left it really is giving up a third round pick value to get a top three player. Besides that it is the last pick of the third round. Look at the players available.

So you're basically giving up Hill/Dez/Julio/OBJ + Frank Gore (or equivalent talent) for Jamaal Charles.

I'd take the combo of those two over Charles any day.

RCarr fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Aug 18, 2015

dat one portagee
Dec 6, 2006

WAT DOIN BUG?
AP fell to me at #3, I couldn't pass him up. Also, I snagged Dez at #23 overall...

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

dat one portagee posted:

Also, I snagged Dez at #23 overall...

poo poo I'd be happy to get Dez at 12.

Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc
I absolutely destroyed my redraft work league last year - it was a 10 team, 1QB/2WR/2RB/TE/Flex/K/DST league with 0.2 PPR. I drafted and played the waiver wire well, but the biggest advantage I had over everyone was RB depth. This year we have more interest and it's going to be 14 teams, 0.5 PPR, and the commissioner has just informed me that he's concerned about RB scarcity (he got burned by being incredibly shallow at RB last year) and he's going to change one of the RB slots to another W/R/T flex. My initial reaction is that it's bullshit and I don't like it, but ultimately I'll roll with whatever they decide.

My questions is how best do I take advantage of this change? Do I target one of the top tier RBs to just slot in there all year and then stock up mid-round receivers? Or do I go WR/WR and try to pull two elite guys while trying to build a stable of RB2s that I can slot in weekly based on matchups? Or do I not change my drafting strategy at all? Most of the people in this league are not good at fantasy sports and will almost solely rely on Yahoo's rankings.

Draft order has not yet been decided and that will obviously play a huge role but I kind of feel like more people are going to jump on those early RBs now and maybe even overdraft some to shore up that one RB slot, so if I get lucky and can snag 2 of Dez/Julio/Jordy/DT/AJ Green I'd be money.

Papes
Apr 13, 2010

There's always something at the bottom of the bag.
Running well against the Falcons 2nd and 3rd string defense is hardly a tall feat.

Let's see if he can do anything with the ones before declaring a timeshare.

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

We need 4 more for this goon MFL to start

http://football20.myfantasyleague.c...d

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

Gobias Ind. posted:

I absolutely destroyed my redraft work league last year - it was a 10 team, 1QB/2WR/2RB/TE/Flex/K/DST league with 0.2 PPR. I drafted and played the waiver wire well, but the biggest advantage I had over everyone was RB depth. This year we have more interest and it's going to be 14 teams, 0.5 PPR, and the commissioner has just informed me that he's concerned about RB scarcity (he got burned by being incredibly shallow at RB last year) and he's going to change one of the RB slots to another W/R/T flex. My initial reaction is that it's bullshit and I don't like it, but ultimately I'll roll with whatever they decide.

My questions is how best do I take advantage of this change? Do I target one of the top tier RBs to just slot in there all year and then stock up mid-round receivers? Or do I go WR/WR and try to pull two elite guys while trying to build a stable of RB2s that I can slot in weekly based on matchups? Or do I not change my drafting strategy at all? Most of the people in this league are not good at fantasy sports and will almost solely rely on Yahoo's rankings.

Draft order has not yet been decided and that will obviously play a huge role but I kind of feel like more people are going to jump on those early RBs now and maybe even overdraft some to shore up that one RB slot, so if I get lucky and can snag 2 of Dez/Julio/Jordy/DT/AJ Green I'd be money.

At 0.2 PPR I think RB's are still king and outproduce WR's, so I wouldn't change much. Why do you assume more people draft RB's when you've reduced the number of dedicated starting spots for them?

Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Aug 18, 2015

Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

Its Miller Time posted:

At 0.2 PPR I think RB's are still king and outproduce WR's, so I wouldn't change much. Why do you assume more people draft RB's when you've reduced the number of dedicated starting spots for them?

We're increasing to 0.5 PPR this year, if that changes anything.

I might be overthinking it; I just know that a number of people in this league last year ended up with 0 or 1 reliable RBs, and I think their draft strategy this year might reflect that. They might see that there is only 1 RB slot and want to lock it up right away by grabbing an early back (perhaps over a more highly regarded WR). I could be way off with this assumption though...

Thwomp
Apr 10, 2003

BA-DUHHH

Grimey Drawer

Gobias Ind. posted:

Draft order has not yet been decided and that will obviously play a huge role but I kind of feel like more people are going to jump on those early RBs now and maybe even overdraft some to shore up that one RB slot, so if I get lucky and can snag 2 of Dez/Julio/Jordy/DT/AJ Green I'd be money.

It likely won't be any more different than it was before.

Once you get your draft position, you can look at who will likely fall to you. If the elite RBs are taken, gobble up elite WRs and grab a Hill/Gore in 2nd/3rd.

More flex just makes going WR/WR in the draft more viable.

Prophecy120
Feb 4, 2003

God Bless the Enclave! God Bless America!

Gobias Ind. posted:

We're increasing to 0.5 PPR this year, if that changes anything.

I might be overthinking it; I just know that a number of people in this league last year ended up with 0 or 1 reliable RBs, and I think their draft strategy this year might reflect that. They might see that there is only 1 RB slot and want to lock it up right away by grabbing an early back (perhaps over a more highly regarded WR). I could be way off with this assumption though...

I have a very similar if not exactly similar league setup, and I'm thinking of doing the opposite. Since only 1 RB is required each week, I'm basically loading up on high quality WR and picking round 5 or later lottery ticket running backs. I concede that my C.J. Spiller or Joique Bell is going to lose vs. my opponents AP or LeVeon Bell... but I'm pretty sure my combo of Antonio Brown, AJ Green and TY Hilton will more than make up for it.

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.
I would place a slight emphasis on targeting WR's since you can slot them in 3 different places instead of 2. But I wouldn't pass on a solid RB if one is available. Your WR depth is going to be more important than your RB depth so draft accordingly in later rounds. It will definitely depend on your draft position how much flexibility you have.

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

I would lock up my RB slot in the first 2 rounds, grab a couple RB lottos late and otherwise totally focus on WR and TE

Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

Prophecy120 posted:

I have a very similar if not exactly similar league setup, and I'm thinking of doing the opposite. Since only 1 RB is required each week, I'm basically loading up on high quality WR and picking round 5 or later lottery ticket running backs. I concede that my C.J. Spiller or Joique Bell is going to lose vs. my opponents AP or LeVeon Bell... but I'm pretty sure my combo of Antonio Brown, AJ Green and TY Hilton will more than make up for it.

This was my initial thought as well. Still got a couple weeks leading up to the draft to gauge what people might do and to determine my strategy going in. Ultimately it probably won't end up changing my picks in the first 5 or so rounds - after that I'll definitely have a bit more of a WR focus though.

Wanted to put some feelers out here and see what you guys though. Thanks for the responses.

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Prophecy120
Feb 4, 2003

God Bless the Enclave! God Bless America!
Granted, I'm probably a little biased since my past 3 years in a big-money league my #1 picks have all been bust running backs. 2012 was McCoy, 2013 CJ Spiller & T. Rich, 2014 Peterson. I'll give Antonio Brown a chance to break my heart and tank my season this year.

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