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Bip Roberts posted:Being a slow moving centrist might actually be what Obama wants to be. He's basically said as much; and that democracy that moves too fast or with sudden change is not healthy and not a real democracy.
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Aug 19, 2015 01:57
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How hosed would the Middle East be under a Trump presidency?
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Aug 19, 2015 02:05
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goose fleet posted:How hosed would the Middle East be under a Trump presidency? As long as he can tell Iranians from Mexicans I think the Mideast will fly under his radar.
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Aug 19, 2015 02:17
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Lascivious Sloth posted:I actually believe it should be the other way around; the security council is inherently flawed because it includes regimes that are already violating human rights in mass scale, whereas R2P is a great concept and should be a clear legal definition and an independent branch of the UN makes decisions that the UN members must adide by to remain a member. The UNSC is just a way for major powers to politik and hasn't prevented any escalations including Syria and Ukraine, because of course it won't when opposed super powers have vested interests in those regions. Every permanent member of the security council has engaged in massive human rights abuses since the creation of the UN, so I don't think that would have worked out too well.
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Aug 19, 2015 02:28
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Do the rotating, temporary members of the council have any real say in things?
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Aug 19, 2015 02:30
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goose fleet posted:Do the rotating, temporary members of the council have any real say in things? When the permanent members don't give a poo poo about a topic, they do.
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Aug 19, 2015 02:39
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Lascivious Sloth posted:I actually believe it should be the other way around; the security council is inherently flawed because it includes regimes that are already violating human rights in mass scale, whereas R2P is a great concept and should be a clear legal definition and an independent branch of the UN makes decisions that the UN members must adide by to remain a member. The UNSC is just a way for major powers to politik and hasn't prevented any escalations including Syria and Ukraine, because of course it won't when opposed super powers have vested interests in those regions. Everyone should be extremely glad that it is not the other way around, since what you are proposing (unilaterally ordering countries around while ignoring the reality of their economic and military power) led directly to massive world wars since the major powers lost their ability to use diplomacy to get what they wanted. Kaal fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Aug 19, 2015 |
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Aug 19, 2015 02:45
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goose fleet posted:How hosed would the Middle East be under a Trump presidency? Trump has said he wants to bomb ISIL's oil wells, which would cause a hell of a lot of chaos (and death), and although he's attacked Jeb! over Iraq, he's also said something about boots on the ground against ISIL. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/trumps-foreign-policy-platform-includes-boots-ground-isis/ http://www.businessinsider.com/a-top-us-general-picked-apart-donald-trumps-isis-policy-2015-8 But he probably wouldn't start a ground war with Iran like Walker would, so still slightly better on that front.
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Aug 19, 2015 02:46
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goose fleet posted:Do the rotating, temporary members of the council have any real say in things? Yes they do, but they don't have veto power. Having a seat at the table is a huge opportunity and it should be recognized as such. This reflects the reality that if New Zealand doesn't get what it wants through the UNSC, it won't be able to single-handedly upset the world order in pursuit of it.
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Aug 19, 2015 02:50
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fade5 posted:Possibly less hosed than under Walker/Jeb!/Lindsay Graham, although if there was any fainter praise it would be invisible. "Boots on the ground" might have a better chance of "destroying" ISIL in the sense that it'd probably end up with current ISIL leadership dead but the end result would be other people/groups stepping up to pick up where al-Baghdadi left off.
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Aug 19, 2015 02:50
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FAUXTON posted:"Boots on the ground" might have a better chance of "destroying" ISIL in the sense that it'd probably end up with current ISIL leadership dead but the end result would be other people/groups stepping up to pick up where al-Baghdadi left off. Didn't the sunni/shia militias in Iraq basically say 'thanks for the guns but if you bring in troops we will gently caress you up'?
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Aug 19, 2015 04:20
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We kinda already had boots on the ground for a decade in Iraq and ISIS' progenitor organization still survived that.
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Aug 19, 2015 04:41
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Sergg posted:We kinda already had boots on the ground for a decade in Iraq and ISIS' progenitor organization still survived that. Because the "boots on the ground" were trying to patrol cities and train MPs. Like I said, it would destroy ISIL only in the sense that the current leadership would be eradicated, but others would take their place and it would functionally be no different from if we never invaded at all (in short, "a terrible and costly decision with no upside.") There's no way in hell any number of "boots" in any place would destroy the political and social forces that drive people to extremism, and it's almost certain it would exacerbate them.
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Aug 19, 2015 04:51
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In the absence of a parliament, Sisi pushed through the patriot act on steroids, which essentially restores the Mubarak era state of emergency laws that were widely used to crack down on dissent. Journalists can now be fined up to $65,000 and banned from journalism for a year based on writing stories that contradict official state reports of events. This seems to be in response to a number of stories that came out about the fighting in the Sinai that questioned whether the government was trying to cover up the true extent of the death toll. It also establishes a special court system for terrorists, and broadens the definition of "terrorism" to include very generalized crimes like "promoting civil disorder." Of course, this being Egypt, it made sure to give prosecutors sweeping powers and ensure the death penalty can be sentenced rapidly and efficiently. Things are getting awfully dystopian there. http://www.wsj.com/articles/egypts-president-approves-antiterrorism-measures-1439820527
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Aug 19, 2015 06:30
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goose fleet posted:How hosed would the Middle East be under a Trump presidency? A lot less, I'd think, since I doubt Trump is afraid to tackle the issues from an outside-the-box framework. What I mean is, Trump would create an irradiated deadzone between ISIL, Sunni, and Shia, solving the mideastern sectarian divides once and for all. Also, if you wanna feel all sad brains, ISIL executed 'Ali Assad yesterday. Ali had been administrator of Palmyra for the past 50 years. Presumably, ISIL had him finish appraising everything worth appraising. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Aug 19, 2015 |
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Aug 19, 2015 06:41
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My Imaginary GF posted:A lot less, I'd think, since I doubt Trump is afraid to tackle the issues from an outside-the-box framework. You know speaking of outliving their usefulness when was the last time we heard anything about John Cantlie? Has there been any word since like last year?
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Aug 19, 2015 06:54
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My Imaginary GF posted:Also, if you wanna feel all sad brains, ISIL executed 'Ali Assad yesterday. Ali had been administrator of Palmyra for the past 50 years. Presumably, ISIL had him finish appraising everything worth appraising. I cannot possibly imagine what the purpose of this could have been. I doubt this old man posed a serious security threat. It's the 'little' things that drive home just how evil they are.
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Aug 19, 2015 07:10
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My Imaginary GF posted:A lot less, I'd think, since I doubt Trump is afraid to tackle the issues from an outside-the-box framework. I hope you're being facetious. Trump said his plan for ISIS is to bomb them, encircle them and take their oil. I fail to see how this vague nonsense of an idea would improve anything, in any way.
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Aug 19, 2015 07:11
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Phlegmish posted:I cannot possibly imagine what the purpose of this could have been. I doubt this old man posed a serious security threat. It's the 'little' things that drive home just how evil they are. Can't go around re-appraising artifacts or telling folks the prices he told ISIL, now, can he? At ISIL, insider trading of anything but Yazidis is haram.
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Aug 19, 2015 07:13
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Volkerball posted:In the absence of a parliament, Sisi pushed through the patriot act on steroids, which essentially restores the Mubarak era state of emergency laws that were widely used to crack down on dissent. Journalists can now be fined up to $65,000 and banned from journalism for a year based on writing stories that contradict official state reports of events. This seems to be in response to a number of stories that came out about the fighting in the Sinai that questioned whether the government was trying to cover up the true extent of the death toll. It also establishes a special court system for terrorists, and broadens the definition of "terrorism" to include very generalized crimes like "promoting civil disorder." Of course, this being Egypt, it made sure to give prosecutors sweeping powers and ensure the death penalty can be sentenced rapidly and efficiently. Things are getting awfully dystopian there. Popular.... support... Morsi was an insane Islamist... Look at these poll numbers!
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Aug 19, 2015 08:39
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Bait and Swatch posted:I hope you're being facetious. Trump said his plan for ISIS is to bomb them, encircle them and take their oil. I fail to see how this vague nonsense of an idea would improve anything, in any way. MIGF being facetious!? Never.
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Aug 19, 2015 14:15
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Phlegmish posted:I cannot possibly imagine what the purpose of this could have been. I doubt this old man posed a serious security threat. It's the 'little' things that drive home just how evil they are. They apparently "interrogated" him for a month before beheading him after he wouldn't reveal where the hidden Palmyra antiquities were. Depressing as gently caress. If he really did hold out that long with out telling them (a loving month?) at the age of 82 then he he is braver any of us will ever be. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/18/isis-beheads-archaeologist-syria
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Aug 19, 2015 15:29
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Jippa posted:They apparently "interrogated" him for a month before beheading him after he wouldn't reveal where the hidden Palmyra antiquities were. Depressing as gently caress. If he really did hold out that long with out telling them (a loving month?) at the age of 82 then he he is braver any of us will ever be. It's possible that he didn't even have the information they wanted. The article alludes to hidden artifacts, but it's not really clear if it's in reference to something that was already excavated and stashed away in a place Assad would know the location of. It's a local story around Palmyra that the most ancient drawings reference locations of tombs that could be full of valuable artifacts were they found. ISIS has captured men involved in the museum scene before demanding that they decipher these sort of treasure maps to find the tombs. I know of at least one man who fled for his life because he knew it wasn't realistic to be able to do that, and that his ability to find those tombs was the extent of his usefulness to them. This guy could have been in a similar situation.
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Aug 19, 2015 23:11
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Was he related to Bashar Assad?
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Aug 19, 2015 23:45
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Sergg posted:Was he related to Bashar Assad? The name's spelling is a bit different, Asaad, so probably not.
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Aug 20, 2015 00:14
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Sergg posted:Was he related to Bashar Assad? Khaled al-Asaad خالد الأسعد Bashar Hafez al-Assad بشار حافظ الأسد
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Aug 20, 2015 00:17
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Volkerball posted:It's possible that he didn't even have the information they wanted. The article alludes to hidden artifacts, but it's not really clear if it's in reference to something that was already excavated and stashed away in a place Assad would know the location of. It's a local story around Palmyra that the most ancient drawings reference locations of tombs that could be full of valuable artifacts were they found. ISIS has captured men involved in the museum scene before demanding that they decipher these sort of treasure maps to find the tombs. I know of at least one man who fled for his life because he knew it wasn't realistic to be able to do that, and that his ability to find those tombs was the extent of his usefulness to them. This guy could have been in a similar situation. Well at least we have the plot for the next Indiana Jones movie.
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Aug 20, 2015 00:54
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It's really hard to fathom the span of history that basically gets classified as Jahiliyyah and thus requiring erasure under the rule of groups like ISIL, without getting really, really depressed. e: I mean we're still digging poo poo up in the crescent that keeps pushing back the dawn of civilization. FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 01:03 on Aug 20, 2015 |
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Aug 20, 2015 00:56
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Obviously the loss of life during this civil war really sucks, but it's also sad what ISIS are doing to the heritage site. My parents who are both virtually retired were fortunate enough to visit Palmyra during a holiday to Syria, Jordan, Israel and Iran about a year before the Arab spring stuff started. They are huge archeology and art history buffs so I'm so glad they could experience it before the poo poo hit the fan. When the Syrian part started they said that, as a tourist, you would never have known anything like that would happen because of the friendly and peaceful vibe they received from the locals in Damascus & Palmyra. Whereas when they visited pre-Euro crisis Greece on another trip they had someone trying to scam them, bag snatch or pickpocket them every other day. 
Fanatic fucked around with this message at 01:55 on Aug 20, 2015 |
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Aug 20, 2015 01:52
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Welp, it seems that murderous suppression of a theretofore non-violent political opposition incites radicalization and a turn to violent resistance. Who knew?!quote:CAIRO — A car bomb targeting security forces exploded in the Egyptian capital early Thursday morning, the Interior Ministry said, shaking buildings across the city and raising fears of an increasingly brazen insurgency that has stepped up attacks in Cairo.
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Aug 20, 2015 03:39
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A group calling itself "Blak Blok" (Black Block) claimed it and vowed more attacks. This may apparently be them, if you believe Twitter: Yup, that's a classic CNT/FAI flag from the Spanish Civil War era, although now it belongs to the Free "Repels." Edit: in case my sarcasm wasn't poking through enough, there is no way these people pulled this off. Bombing a security directorate building is major league poo poo, not "NO gently caress YOU DAD" teenager stuff. pantslesswithwolves fucked around with this message at 04:42 on Aug 20, 2015 |
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Aug 20, 2015 04:39
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Cugel the Clever posted:Welp, it seems that murderous suppression of a theretofore non-violent political opposition incites radicalization and a turn to violent resistance. Who knew?! My intellectual hero Shadi Hamid just put out an article on this a couple weeks ago. It really puts the Arab Strongman myth to death. Some choice quotes that show just how much Sisi is empowering ISIS through his dumb as poo poo crackdown. quote:According to the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, the month of the coup, July 2013, saw a massive uptick in violence, from 13 attacks the month before to 95 attacks. The number of attacks dipped in subsequent months — to 69 in August and 56 in September — but remained significantly higher than before the coup. The pre- and post-coup discrepancy becomes even more obvious when we zoom out further: From July 2013 to May 2015, there were a total of 1,223 attacks over 23 months, an average of 53.2 attacks per month. In the 23 months prior to June 2013, there were a mere 78 attacks, an average of 3.4 attacks per month. Thank God for Sisi. I'd hate to imagine how unstable Egypt would be without him in power.
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Aug 20, 2015 04:46
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suboptimal posted:A group calling itself "Blak Blok" (Black Block) claimed it and vowed more attacks. This may apparently be them, if you believe Twitter: I dunno, I met many Al Qaeda in Iraq members who were simply teenagers mad at authority, as weird as that sounds. Building a VBIED isn't that difficult with everything insurgents have learned over the last decade available on the internet, and even checkpoints are a bit of joke in my experience.
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Aug 20, 2015 05:03
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Egypt's anarchist groups have been getting press for a few years now. http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/thelede/2013/01/25/a-black-bloc-emerges-in-egypt/?referrer= It seems like they were in the streets before Sisi started shooting everyone who protested. They wouldn't be my first suspects, but with a paranoid military regime ruling I can see a group like that becoming more radicalized.
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Aug 20, 2015 05:22
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http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a9f4e40803924a8ab4c61cb65b2b2bb3/ap-exclusive-un-let-iran-inspect-alleged-nuke-work-site AP Exclusive: UN to let Iran inspect alleged nuke work site quote:VIENNA (AP) — Iran will be allowed to use its own inspectors to investigate a site it has been accused of using to develop nuclear arms, operating under a secret agreement with the U.N. agency that normally carries out such work, according to a document seen by The Associated Press.
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Aug 20, 2015 06:14
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Spin up the hillbilly-accented handwringing about how the IAEA having Iran report directly to them on a nuclear energy research site, with IAEA doing technical evaluation of the reports with power to roll back sanctions if it doesn't add up is basically selling nukes to Khamenei.
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Aug 20, 2015 06:24
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a9f4e40803924a8ab4c61cb65b2b2bb3/ap-exclusive-un-let-iran-inspect-alleged-nuke-work-site I mean it kind of sucks, but that's not entirely unreasonable when one side is known for using inspections to spy on conventional military programs to its benefit. The really interesting part is if Iran actually is going to admit to Amano that they did do preliminary weaponization work before 2003, and if the IAEA will subsequently keep that secret. I mean, I trust Amano less than El-Baradei on the latter point obviously, but on the other hand even if the White House gets a peek, they would want to keep it under wraps too so as to keep the deal in place. The best way to explain this would probably be, "Do you think we should have allowed the KGB to inspect Area 51 as part of SALT?" (then again plenty of people back then and today probably preferred a first strike against the Soviets to SALT just as we should glass Iran)
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Aug 20, 2015 06:26
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"Whut the gently caress's a SALT?" That's the level of thinking you're dealing with when you run into laypeople getting their shorts in a knot about this.
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Aug 20, 2015 06:30
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What is the point of this UN deal? Limited photos, samples, any and all evidence is supplied by Iran over a site they've already denied (involvement in nuclear production). It's laughable and makes the UN look desperate in wanting to look like they're important.
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Aug 20, 2015 06:50
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FAUXTON posted:"Whut the gently caress's a SALT?" I don't view the revelation as positive news, but it's not inherently negative (which is how it will be portrayed). It's certainly perferable to war and a regional arms race, which will accomplish nothing. Even if Iran proves to be able to circumvent thw system, the region and world will be in a better spot than where we started the negotiations from. Iran was perfectly capable of getting a nuke regardless of sanctions, at least this package offers a potential way out for all involved. I don't believe the sanctions will be as east to "snap back into place" as is often portrayed though. They were difficult enough establish first go around. Hopefully it we won't have to find out though.
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Aug 20, 2015 06:56
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