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Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

BlackSwan2.0 posted:

I'm doing some mock draft's through Draft Dominator to account for my keepers and traded draft picks.

I seem to come into two options in the 2nd round; either Rodger's + Tate/DeSean Jackson in the 3rd, or Calvin/AJ + Big Ben in the third.

I'd be stupid to not take the latter route, right?

Also, I'm struggling to decide between Calvin vs AJ. I feel Calvin is the better WR in a vacuum, but he's getting older and has been missing more and more games each season. Is AJ the safer pick?

When Megatron is healthy and playing, he's a good bet for production due to his offensive system. If AJ Green is healthy and playing, he's not the same bet because for the same reason.

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Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Franks Happy Place posted:

I bet that by this time next week, Sankey will be at best in a 50/50 timeshare with Cobb.

I could of told you that before training camp. Both will get touches and both will do well when the line blocks

Honore_De_Balzac
Feb 12, 2013

I would say Green, and Calvin are exactly even this year. Coin flip it. They both have their positives and negatives, but I think both will have good bounce back years. I looked to get either in the second, and ended up with Green, because someone took Calvin in the first.

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

I really don't like RB/RB, I messed up. I'm playing a best ball MFL10, picked 5th and took J. Charles (Brown went 1.1 or I would have picked him after top 4 RB's) and then Hill at #20 and Hilton at #29. Now I have 2 WR and a flex position to fill in 1PPR and I'm looking at a WR#2 of Tate/Marshall/Cooper. On the other hand, the draft is at #30 and Spiller, Ingram, Gordon, Abdullah, Randle, Ivory and Martin are still on the board to name some favorites.

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
Ya, doing a lot of mock drafts and 'mock' drafts in the ESPN lobby. When I go 2 or EVEN 3 RBs first---very dumb. I am stuck with taking any WR I can get with next 2 picks, sometimes it works out GREAT, other times, not so much.

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

I find mocks to be unhelpful because it is almost universally better to try to game the people you're drafting with rather than a general strategy. For example, I draft with Eagles fans so I know they will let Cowboys and Giants fall further than they should.

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

I just checked Scott Pianowski's rankings. In PPR he has Abdullah as RB9 and #16 overall. I know he's the most accurate ranker per FantasyPros but that's a serious bet.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
It all depends on who you draft with and how it goes.

Last year one of my leagues went apeshit with WRs and QBs and I ended up going Forte/Murray/Bell and rode them all year with Wilson as my QB and TY Hilton as my #1. Won the championship with ease with some waiver wire work.

There's no be all end all strategy to the draft, they all have merits and all change as you draft.

Varg
Jan 13, 2007

A friendly face.

I do way too many ESPN mock drafts for the small amount of useful knowledge I get in return. Mostly I just do them to get a feel on how long I can wait and not get hosed on having a couple decent QBs. I figure out what rounds they usually disappear and then plan to take them a couple rounds earlier than that in my real draft since my friends don't know how to wait on them

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Varg posted:

I do way too many ESPN mock drafts for the small amount of useful knowledge I get in return. Mostly I just do them to get a feel on how long I can wait and not get hosed on having a couple decent QBs. I figure out what rounds they usually disappear and then plan to take them a couple rounds earlier than that in my real draft since my friends don't know how to wait on them

If your friends are reaching for QBs too early, the way to react is to draft the good players they're skipping over on their reaches, and then make do with a couple of later-tier QBs who you can stream for reasonable if not spectacular points. Copying their poor decisions only means you're also making a poor decision.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Does anyone here have any recommendations for good IDP resources?

Varg
Jan 13, 2007

A friendly face.

Leperflesh posted:

If your friends are reaching for QBs too early, the way to react is to draft the good players they're skipping over on their reaches, and then make do with a couple of later-tier QBs who you can stream for reasonable if not spectacular points. Copying their poor decisions only means you're also making a poor decision.
oh I do, this is how I've won the league the past 3 years straight. I just target the last few serviceable QBs and attempt to grab them before anyone grabs them as their 2nd QB.

BlackSwan2.0
Aug 19, 2015

Thwomp posted:

If it's 6, then it's a toss up. 4 and the latter should be a lock.

Sorry I should have clarified; 4pt passing TD's.

Luck, Wilson and Newton are being kept. I'm keeping Cooks and Matthews at WR, but I'm not confident in either of them being a serviceable WR1 (great WR2's and flex though...)

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Does anyone here have any recommendations for good IDP resources?

PFF is my IDP go-to

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

Break what must be broken, once for all, that's all, and take the suffering on oneself.

― Corey Dostoyevsky
Cross off Kelvin Benjamin on your big boards

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Does anyone here have any recommendations for good IDP resources?

I use FootballGuys. They have a lot of good articles on IDP

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Thanks guys. I'll check them both out.

Poonerman posted:

Cross off Kelvin Benjamin on your big boards

Yeah. ACL. That loving sucks.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Poor bastard. Never want to see that happen to a guy. Hope he's able to get healthy and come back for a big year in 2016.

TommyGun85
Jun 5, 2013

Varg posted:

oh I do, this is how I've won the league the past 3 years straight. I just target the last few serviceable QBs and attempt to grab them before anyone grabs them as their 2nd QB.

if youve won your league 3 years in a row you should find a new league because even through sheer luck someone else should win it......or stop lying.

Mr. BT
Oct 14, 2002
What's the best insider resource to pay for? There are a lot of them in the OP, and all of the guys have ESPN Insider, so I'm looking for something more.

Oh, and in a 2 QB league, should I definitely make my 1st and 2nd picks a QB? Last year I went Forte/Murray 1-2, but I never got solid QB play. The guy who won our league basically did it with Andrew Luck and waiver-wire OBJ.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps
10 man league, 7th pick. 1QB, 2RB, 1TE, 3WR, 1K, 2LB, 1DL, 1DB. No flex. Somebody talk me out of drafting Gronk/JJ Watt as my first two picks. Should I pass on an elite RB if he falls to me? Do I go Gronk/elite WR and just build my recieving core to elite levels with Gronk and my 3 spots at WR I have to start? Go maybe a little Mark Ingram/Jon Stewart at RB?

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

PPR would you rather have Funchess or Boldin?

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
The God of Pre-season ACL Tears is a vengeful one.

^^
It depends on your scoring system. JJ gets a lot of passes deflected, sacks, and scored like what, 2 touchdowns last year on offense? I doubt you will get an elite RB like AP, Charles, Lynch or Bell bit you take one of those if they fall. Else stock up on WRs and stash your bench with RB hopefuls and lotto tickets.

^
I like Boldin in that spot.

Gearman
Dec 6, 2011

Mr. BT posted:

What's the best insider resource to pay for? There are a lot of them in the OP, and all of the guys have ESPN Insider, so I'm looking for something more.

Oh, and in a 2 QB league, should I definitely make my 1st and 2nd picks a QB? Last year I went Forte/Murray 1-2, but I never got solid QB play. The guy who won our league basically did it with Andrew Luck and waiver-wire OBJ.

You don't necessarily need to go QB/QB, but you should grab your first two QBs in the first five or six rounds. If Luck is sitting on the board at any point for you, then you hit the draft button as quickly as possible. If it's a 6PTTD league, then you mash that button like it owes you money.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps

Suave Fedora posted:


^^
It depends on your scoring system. JJ gets a lot of passes deflected, sacks, and scored like what, 2 touchdowns last year on offense? I doubt you will get an elite RB like AP, Charles, Lynch or Bell bit you take one of those if they fall. Else stock up on WRs and stash your bench with RB hopefuls and lotto tickets.

This is how the scoring ended last year with JJ Watt and the next 5 best DLs:

01. JJ Watt - 247 points
02. JPP - 125 points
03. Mario Williams - 112 points
04. Suh - 112 points
05. Carlos Dunlap - 108 points
06. Calaris Campbell - 108 points

This is why I'm at this predicament. I would LOVE to get him in the 3rd round, but I just don't see that happening with my draft position and the guys I'm drafting with. Now, I definitely could benefit from snatching whatever WR/RB falls because of JJ getting taken so early, but....gosh darnit, JJ.

Although, to be fair, 2013 he only scored 160 points and Quinn did that, too. It's just not sustainable to have a nutty season like last year again, right?

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
Pick 2 out of the 3: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Jordie Nelson

I'm leaning towards Megatron and Green but I feel like Nelson and Green.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps

Doltos posted:

Pick 2 out of the 3: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Jordie Nelson

I'm leaning towards Megatron and Green but I feel like Nelson and Green.

Megatron & Jordy

Rodgers/Stafford >>>>>>>>>>> Your grandmother > Andy Dalton

Varg
Jan 13, 2007

A friendly face.

TommyGun85 posted:

if youve won your league 3 years in a row you should find a new league because even through sheer luck someone else should win it......or stop lying.

2012 - 12 teams


2013 - 10 teams


2014 - 10 teams



I have stolen all the luck apparently

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

89 posted:

This is how the scoring ended last year with JJ Watt and the next 5 best DLs:

01. JJ Watt - 247 points
02. JPP - 125 points
03. Mario Williams - 112 points
04. Suh - 112 points
05. Carlos Dunlap - 108 points
06. Calaris Campbell - 108 points

This is why I'm at this predicament. I would LOVE to get him in the 3rd round, but I just don't see that happening with my draft position and the guys I'm drafting with. Now, I definitely could benefit from snatching whatever WR/RB falls because of JJ getting taken so early, but....gosh darnit, JJ.

Although, to be fair, 2013 he only scored 160 points and Quinn did that, too. It's just not sustainable to have a nutty season like last year again, right?

But how does his scoring compare against all positions? I'm trying to gauge how important he is compared to the other Tier 1 guys at the other positions to get a better idea about his scarcity.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Doltos posted:

Pick 2 out of the 3: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Jordie Nelson

I'm leaning towards Megatron and Green but I feel like Nelson and Green.

Green/Megatron

Their team''s passing games are still centered around them. I could easily see Jordy getting a little less this season with the Packers going to more of a trio with him/Cobb/Adams.

Miko
May 20, 2001

Where I come from, there's no such thing as kryptonite.

Tiptoes posted:

Green/Megatron

Their team''s passing games are still centered around them. I could easily see Jordy getting a little less this season with the Packers going to more of a trio with him/Cobb/Adams.
And Lacy is going to blow the top off the league this season.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps

Suave Fedora posted:

But how does his scoring compare against all positions? I'm trying to gauge how important he is compared to the other Tier 1 guys at the other positions to get a better idea about his scarcity.

Here's the top 10 from those positions last year in this league:

QB
01. Aaron Rodgers - 364 points
02. Andrew Luck - 350 points
03. Peyton Manning - 324 points
04. Russell Wilson - 316 points
05. Big Rape - 314 points
06. Drew Brees - 307 points
07. Tom Brady - 284 points
08. Matt Ryan - 281 points
09. Tony Romo - 271 points
10. Ryan Tannehill - 270 points

RB
01. LeVeon Bell - 333 points
02. DeMarco Murray - 323 points
03. Matt Forte - 297 points
04. Marshawn Lynch - 283 points
05. Arian Foster - 257 points
06. Eddie Lacy - 254 points
07. Jamaal Charles - 231 points
08. Justin Forsett - 227 points
09. Lamar Miller - 205 points
10. Jeremy Hill - 202 points

WR
01. Antonio Brown - 341 points
02. Demariyus Thomas - 291 points
03. Jordy Nelson - 290 points
04. Dez Bryant - 278 points
05. Odell Beckham - 264 points
06. Emmanuel Sanders - 257 points
07. Randall Cobb - 254 points
08. Julio Jones - 250 points
09. Jeremy Maclin - 250 points
10. TY Hilton - 223 points

TEs
01. Gronk - 226 points
02. Jimmy Graham - 189 points
03. Antonio Grates - 188 points
04. Greg Olsen - 179 points
05. Martellus Bennett - 177 points
06. Colby Fleener - 154 points
07. Travis Kelce - 147 points
08, Delanie Walker - 146 points
09. Julius Thomas - 144 points
10. Jason Witten - 134 points

DL
01. JJ Watt - 247 points
02. JPP - 125 points
03. Mario Williams - 112 points
04. Donkey Kong Suh - 112 points
05. Carlos Dunlap - 108 points
06. Calaris Campbell - 108 points
07,. Everson Griffen - 104 points
08. Aaron Donald - 100 points
09. Rob Ninkovich - 100 points
10. Jerry Hughes - 99 points

10 man league, 7th pick. 1QB, 2RB, 1TE, 3WR, 1K, 2LB, 1DL, 1DB. No flex.

So, basically now I probably should just take Antonio Brown, Gronk, and pray for JJ Watt but don't expect him in the 3rd. :(

89 fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Aug 20, 2015

MrSargent
Dec 23, 2003

Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Tiptoes posted:

Green/Megatron

Their team''s passing games are still centered around them. I could easily see Jordy getting a little less this season with the Packers going to more of a trio with him/Cobb/Adams.

But out of the three, Jordy is by far the most consistent and the Packers had the Cobb/Adams/Nelson trio last year and he still put up huge numbers. I would easily take Jordy for one of those three and then its almost a tossup between CJ and Green.

MrSargent fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Aug 20, 2015

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

89 posted:

05. Big Rape - 314 points

Lol

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

MrSargent posted:

But out of the three, Jordy is by far the most consistent and the Packets had the Cobb/Adams/Nelson trio last year and he still put up huge numbers. I would easily take Jordy for one of those three and then its almost a tossup between CJ and Green.

Yeah Jordy is so drat consistent and Megatron seems to be having a lot of fluctuating years lately between his health and the Lion's various woes. Green also burned me last year in his decoy games and that game where he sat out because his arm hurt a little bit after a hit.

Gearman
Dec 6, 2011

Doltos posted:

Pick 2 out of the 3: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Jordie Nelson

I'm leaning towards Megatron and Green but I feel like Nelson and Green.

Megatron and Jordy. Jordy is Mr. Consistent barring catastrophic injury that could happen to anyone. I'm a big AJ Green believer, hell I traded to get him in both of my leagues last year and this year, and I'd still take Megatron over him.

Cigar Aficionado
Nov 1, 2004

"Patel"? Fuck you.

Doltos posted:

Yeah Jordy is so drat consistent and Megatron seems to be having a lot of fluctuating years lately between his health and the Lion's various woes. Green also burned me last year in his decoy games and that game where he sat out because his arm hurt a little bit after a hit.

Because they were hurt last year. They're healthy this year.

I'm in this exact situation (picking 12th?) and have been thinking about the same question. I'm starting to lean towards Megatron and Green. They are both the undisputed #1 options in their respective offenses, are bigger and more physically talented, and have higher ceilings than Jordy. They should also still have great floors.

cheese
Jan 7, 2004

Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.
Is it wrong that some part of me is annoyed that the players who are getting injured pre-drafts, like Shady and Kevlin Benjamin, are ones who I feel like were going to way under perform compared to their ADP, are injured and are now going to drop to more appropriate ADPs? So many bad players are going to miss out on taking Kelvin in the second now...

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



cheese posted:

Is it wrong that some part of me is annoyed that the players who are getting injured pre-drafts, like Shady and Kevlin Benjamin, are ones who I feel like were going to way under perform compared to their ADP, are injured and are now going to drop to more appropriate ADPs? So many bad players are going to miss out on taking Kelvin in the second now...

So you are annoyed because you would rather better players were getting injured?

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Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

89 posted:

Here's the top 10 from those positions last year in this league:

QB
01. Aaron Rodgers - 364 points
02. Andrew Luck - 350 points
03. Peyton Manning - 324 points
04. Russell Wilson - 316 points
05. Big Rape - 314 points
06. Drew Brees - 307 points
07. Tom Brady - 284 points
08. Matt Ryan - 281 points
09. Tony Romo - 271 points
10. Ryan Tannehill - 270 points

RB
01. LeVeon Bell - 333 points
02. DeMarco Murray - 323 points
03. Matt Forte - 297 points
04. Marshawn Lynch - 283 points
05. Arian Foster - 257 points
06. Eddie Lacy - 254 points
07. Jamaal Charles - 231 points
08. Justin Forsett - 227 points
09. Lamar Miller - 205 points
10. Jeremy Hill - 202 points

WR
01. Antonio Brown - 341 points
02. Demariyus Thomas - 291 points
03. Jordy Nelson - 290 points
04. Dez Bryant - 278 points
05. Odell Beckham - 264 points
06. Emmanuel Sanders - 257 points
07. Randall Cobb - 254 points
08. Julio Jones - 250 points
09. Jeremy Maclin - 250 points
10. TY Hilton - 223 points

TEs
01. Gronk - 226 points
02. Jimmy Graham - 189 points
03. Antonio Grates - 188 points
04. Greg Olsen - 179 points
05. Martellus Bennett - 177 points
06. Colby Fleener - 154 points
07. Travis Kelce - 147 points
08, Delanie Walker - 146 points
09. Julius Thomas - 144 points
10. Jason Witten - 134 points

DL
01. JJ Watt - 247 points
02. JPP - 125 points
03. Mario Williams - 112 points
04. Donkey Kong Suh - 112 points
05. Carlos Dunlap - 108 points
06. Calaris Campbell - 108 points
07,. Everson Griffen - 104 points
08. Aaron Donald - 100 points
09. Rob Ninkovich - 100 points
10. Jerry Hughes - 99 points

10 man league, 7th pick. 1QB, 2RB, 1TE, 3WR, 1K, 2LB, 1DL, 1DB. No flex.

So, basically now I probably should just take Antonio Brown, Gronk, and pray for JJ Watt but don't expect him in the 3rd. :(

I was hoping for a comprehensive list that included all the players but this will have to do do. While there is a huge gulf between Watt and the next best available DL, you have to assume some regression. That said, I wouldn't be against taking Watt in the 2nd given how much of a gulf there was in his production compared to the next best player.

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