China Economy Megathread

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A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

Jumpingmanjim posted:

SHCOMP shat itself again, down 4%

Now down 6.5%. I, uh, don't think China's Economy is doing very well.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:09

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# ? May 26, 2024 05:24

Mercury_Storm: Jun 12, 2003; *chomp chomp chomp*

So I came up with this great plan for reviving the A shares,,

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:10

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

So when do we know we've hit the bottom? Goldman Sachs bankers in reeducation camps? Dog Meat festival replaced with Cannibalism Streetfest?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:11

A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

Cultural Imperial posted:

So when do we know we've hit the bottom? Goldman Sachs bankers in reeducation camps? Dog Meat festival replaced with Cannibalism Streetfest?

Large scale military movements and a loss of communication from parts of China with the outside world.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:13

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

In case anyone else wants to watch the carnage in real time: https://www.google.com/finance?cid=7521596

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:14

A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

Cultural Imperial posted:

In case anyone else wants to watch the carnage in real time: https://www.google.com/finance?cid=7521596

Now down 8.5% - at what point do they just close the markets for the day?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:14

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:16

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Now down 8.5% - at what point do they just close the markets for the day?

Stocks aren't allowed to decline more than 10% per day in China.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:17

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/george_chen/status/635632569145397248

quote:

George Chen
@george_chen
Can you believe at this moment in entire China stock market - only 16 stocks are up with the rest sinking like falling knife. Dare to catch?

6:59pm � 23 Aug 2015 � Twitter for iPhone

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:19

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

quote:

revive the A shares, benefit the people; revive the A shares, benefit the people

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:26

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

What the gently caress are we witnessing here.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:26

A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

Vladimir Putin posted:

What the gently caress are we witnessing here.

The start of a case study on what happens when a nuclear power has a bloody civil war.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:27

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/TheBubbleBubble/status/635639084837400576/photo/1

e: a word of caution, Jesse Colombo is a libertarian idiot who's been moaning about the fed and hyperinflation for the last 7 years.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:30

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Vladimir Putin posted:

What the gently caress are we witnessing here.

We probably won't know until the markets open tomorrow morning.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:30

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

Cultural Imperial posted:

So when do we know we've hit the bottom? Goldman Sachs bankers in reeducation camps? Dog Meat festival replaced with Cannibalism Streetfest?

No more of those loving gold iPhones.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:30

AllanGordon: Jan 26, 2010; by Shine

They just need to ban anyone who owns more than .1% of a stock from selling it instead of the silly capitalist 20% or w/e limit they have now.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:31

paragon1: Nov 22, 2010; FULL COMMUNISM NOW

Vladimir Putin posted:

What the gently caress are we witnessing here.

The Great Market Correction

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:34

Tubesock: Apr 20, 2002

Some more longer term auto industry perspective.

http://dailykanban.com/2015/08/1-second-analysis-who-is-most-exposed-to-the-chinese-contagion/

quote:

The Chinese new car market, good for rapid growth for nearly a decade, suddenly went negative. Early indicators show that the decline continues. Who will be most hit if/when the China market turns real sour?

Global automakers are highly dependent on the Chinese auto market. 40 percent of GM�s global unit sales are made in China. 40 percent of GM�s net profits originate in China. Volkswagen creates half of its profits in the Middle Kingdom, 36 percent of its unit sales are made in China. Both have made aggressive investments into China, and are ramping up capacities.

Both GM and VW appear to be similarly exposed to a reduction in Chinese sales. However, with a higher net margin, Volkswagen can weather a downturn better than GM. If GM is barely profitable at the peak of the global auto market, how will it survive the downturn?

I read that a lot of tech company stocks have taken a dive as a lot of their growth was predicated on the Chinese economy. I was surprised to see GM and Volkswagon are so dependent on China.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:39

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

Watch for it to go back up after lunch when someone from the government crawls out of bed after a night of drinking and pushes the BUY button.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:39

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

Vladimir Putin posted:

What the gently caress are we witnessing here.

Honest answer, I think we're seeing trust in the government to be able to blow up and protect an asset bubble (which was the only reason people bought into the rise before greed set in) evaporate. The thinking was that the stock market would go up because the government said it would go up and were willing to protect it. (Again, the thinking by those who actually had any business investing, not the greed/frenzy/banana cart investors.) Now the government has gone to extraordinary measures to protect the market and it's still cratering. There's no reason to stay in on what seems like the highest the market will be* for months/years.

*it's not like you can sell for past prices so there's no point holding things that were valuable in the past

Almost down 8% now.

Arglebargle III fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Aug 24, 2015

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:39

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

Can anyone confirm that the whole market closes if it goes down 10%?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:43

StandardVC10: Feb 6, 2007; This avatar now 50% more dark mode compliant

Tubesock posted:

Some more longer term auto industry perspective.

http://dailykanban.com/2015/08/1-second-analysis-who-is-most-exposed-to-the-chinese-contagion/

I read that a lot of tech company stocks have taken a dive as a lot of their growth was predicated on the Chinese economy. I was surprised to see GM and Volkswagon are so dependent on China.

If this means fewer blinged out crossover SUVs then I'm all for it.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:43

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

I think that's pretty standard for stalk markets all around the world.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:43

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Daduzi posted:

In the case of the BBC, it's more that they've become very conservative (with a small c) over the past decade due to a number of scandals, and so their reporting tends to err on the side of caution and predicting the status quo will continue.

I think the answer overall though is that there is a very large number of true believers of free market capitalism in the British press (no greater example of this than the Economist itself), and they sincerely believed the "Chinese miracle" would cap any argument against them once and for all. It isn't going to be a great week for them emotionally.

At its heart the issue is that China has probably run up against the end of industrial revolution, and trying to move to a consumer/post-industrial is going to be very rocky for them. (That said, saying the previous sentence 5 years ago in this forum would be met with howls of laughter. Times change I guess.)

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:46

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/08/investing/china-stocks-suspended/

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:47

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

Ardennes posted:

At its heart the issue is that China has probably run up against the end of industrial revolution, and trying to move to a consumer/post-industrial is going to be very rocky for them. (That said, saying the previous sentence 5 years ago in this forum would be met with howls of laughter. Times change I guess.)

They've hit the end of the "export poo poo to the US" revolution. Leaving stuff like climate change/resource depletion aside, they should be able to continue developing just fine with their own internal economy, but they're so hosed up they can't. It's not like the US industrialized by being a gigantic export factory selling things to a much larger, wealthier country, at least not past the very initial stages

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:50

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

Past 8% now.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:52

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Can anyone confirm that the whole market closes if it goes down 10%?

I think each individual stock halts trading for the day if it goes down 10%, so the index can only go down 10% as a result.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:53

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

icantfindaname posted:

They've hit the end of the "export poo poo to the US" revolution. Leaving stuff like climate change/resource depletion aside, they should be able to continue developing just fine with their own internal economy, but they're so hosed up they can't. It's not like the US industrialized by being a gigantic export factory selling things to a much larger, wealthier country, at least not past the very initial stages

The US had a masysive amount of resources and land compared to it's population versus China. China desperately needed a giant advantage in exports for the whole system to work, and domestic consumption isn't going to be enough.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Aug 24, 2015

# ? Aug 24, 2015 03:57

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02a129cc-4995-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html

quote:

Angry investors capture head of China metals exchange

The head of a Chinese exchange that trades minor metals was captured by angry investors in a dawn raid and turned over to Shanghai police, as the investors attempted to force the authorities to investigate why their funds have been frozen.

Investors have been protesting for weeks after the Fanya Metals Exchange in July ceased making payments on financial investment products. The exchange, based in the southwestern city of Kunming, bought and stockpiled minor metals such as indium and bismuth, while also offering high interest, highly-liquid investment products from its offices in Shanghai and its financing branch in Kunming.

Troubles at the exchange are one of many factors contributing to turbulence in China�s financial markets, as a slowing economy exposes the weaknesses of the country�s debt-driven growth.
Some investors flew in from faraway cities to join hundreds more surrounding a luxury hotel in Shanghai before dawn on Saturday. When Fanya founder Shan Jiuliang attempted to check out, they manhandled him into a car before delivering him to the nearest police station. Shanghai police took Mr Shan into custody and promised to work with local authorities in Yunnan province to investigate what has happened to investors� money. They later released him without charge.

The demonstrations in Shanghai and Kunming and the exchange�s unusual accumulation of several years� supply of some metals have so far failed to attract much public attention from regulators. A report by the local regulator identifying the exchange as one of the bigger investment risks in Yunnan was redacted to remove reference to Fanya late last year.

The exchange began to experience liquidity problems this spring. Fanya is estimated to hold several years� supply of minor metals used in some high-tech and military applications, which it purchased at above-market prices. The exchange�s travails are pressuring prices for some of these metals, as traders anticipate it will have to sell its stockpile.

The exchange, which has acknowledged it has problems, is backed by several of China�s minor metals miners. It has said it has found a buyer but won�t identify the company. Mr Shan �was deceiving us. He admitted to us that there is no buyout group,� said one disgruntled investor surnamed Gu, who participated in the rainy early morning raid.

Mr Shan has been holding regular meetings with exchange backers since problems first surfaced this spring and was on the way to Guangzhou for a business trip when captured. Among other businesses he heads the Hong Kong-listed animation studio Imagi International Holdings. He formerly led the Bohai Commodity Exchange, which traded iron ore among other products.

Fanya denounced the weekend�s raid. �Violent acts against president Shan and our employees or the disturbance of our work are destructive of our work around solving the crisis. This will only allow forces behind the scenes to profit and will greatly harm interests of all members,� it said on its website after Mr Shan�s capture.

Mr Shan has not responded to FT attempts to contact him. Many investors told the FT they were attracted to Fanya financial products because it advertised on CCTV, the national broadcaster. Despite its current problems its financial products are still promoted on the high-speed train from coastal city Tianjin to Beijing.

hahahahah holy shiiiiiiittttttttttt

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:01

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

So China is dumping $95 billion worth of pension funds into the market?

How much good will this actually do?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:01

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

icantfindaname posted:

It's not like the US industrialized by being a gigantic export factory selling things to a much larger, wealthier country, at least not past the very initial stages

Yeah they did, they just called that country "Europe".

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:03

BCR: Jan 23, 2011

I want to see if it can go to 2008 lows.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:03

Ceciltron: Jan 11, 2007; Text BEEP to 43527 for the dancing robot!; Pillbug

I've never actually watched a stock ticker go noticeably down before. This is horrifyingly entrancing.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:04

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02a129cc-4995-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html

hahahahah holy shiiiiiiittttttttttt

Love it.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:07

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02a129cc-4995-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html

hahahahah holy shiiiiiiittttttttttt

Is this how this works?

I get investors for my scheme.
I stockpile some industrially used metal.
I use this warehouse to secure a loan from a bank.
I use this money, to buy shadow bank financial products.
I use the proceeds to pay my investors.

First:
Jesus Christ!

Second:
How much to you want to bet the warehouse is empty?

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:08

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

�\_(ツ)_/�

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:09

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

CommieGIR posted:

So China is dumping $95 billion worth of pension funds into the market?

How much good will this actually do?

They would need trillions, and all that wouldn't make those stocks worth their 6000 P/E ratios again.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:12

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

For everyone just joining this schadenfreude masturbation festival, here's a summary of what the gently caress is going on:

http://qz.com/484710/no-one-knows-how-bad-chinas-economy-will-get/

quote:

China�s Shanghai Composite Index dropped more than 7% in early trading on Monday, setting the stage for another brutal week in world stock markets.

Last week, China�s markets dragged Asian stock markets lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average into correction territory for the first time since 2011. On Friday (Aug. 21), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.3%, and briefly dipped below the 3,500 level at which the government has stepped in previously to prop the market up. The index fell more than 11% last week. Despite more than $1 trillion worth of government support measures, stocks have not really stabilized since they started stumbling in June:

One trigger for last Friday�s drop was the independent �flash� manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), a measure of manufacturing conditions. The index fell to its lowest level since 2009, spooking investors.

The number was a nasty surprise, but it doesn�t explain why markets continued down today.

The problem that is dogging China�s markets (and the rest of the world) isn�t just that a long-expected China slowdown is truly emerging. The really spooky thing is that no one has any idea of how bad things in China are going to get. Analysts, investors, consultants, and an entire zoo full of �China bears� have been churning out reports on what a potential Chinese economic slowdown will look like for months, even years.

But now that it is upon us, the dearth of reliable, non-manipulated data coming from China and the opaqueness of its big companies, government, and banks, mean that most of these reports are educated guesswork. And that means no one can say for sure what will happen in the world�s second-largest economy. �Uncertainty about China growth is now the main swing factor in markets,�
Tim Condon, an economist at ING Group in Singapore, told Reuters on Aug. 21.

China�s GDP, for example, has long been considered a carefully-managed charade. The country�s scarily high bad debts are believed by many bears to be seriously under-reported, although nobody outside of the banks themselves really knows by how much.

That may be why markets reacted so sharply to the �preliminary� PMI figure on Friday. It is one of the few independent measures of China�s manufacturing growth, compiled by Markit and newly sponsored by Chinese business news outlet Caixin, which recently took over from HSBC. China has an officially generated PMI as well, but that figure nearly always comes in equal to or higher than the Markit figure.

China formally relaxed laws over the weekend that would allow pension funds to invest in the stock market. But instead of inspiring investors, the move, like much of China�s market stimulus, seems to have made them more worried about China�s economic future.

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:12

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# ? May 26, 2024 05:24

BCR: Jan 23, 2011

Down 8.5% now

# ? Aug 24, 2015 04:14

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