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Grand Fromage posted:It's a stock bubble. Prices are dropping back toward what they were in February before the bubble started. It's not good but unless a whole lot of other poo poo happens it's not going to be the end of the world. Thing is whether or not it's serious depends on two factors: 1) Whether or not the fuundamentals of the economy are still sound 2) Whether or not investors retain confidence that the economy is sound regardless of 1) Right now neither seem like safe bets.
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Aug 24, 2015 08:37
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My put warrants made me a bunch of money so I'm happy. It's no end of the world for now, in the mean time I can make some more for another roller coaster ride!
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Aug 24, 2015 08:56
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Fojar38 posted:Just the end of China and the aura of Chinese invincibility they've been projecting for the past decade.
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Aug 24, 2015 09:20
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I don't pay much attention to these things but didn't Russia move heavily to chinese market after the EU sanctions? What are the odds that Putin will release another photo collection of him riding a horse shirtless after this?
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Aug 24, 2015 09:27
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Puistokemisti posted:I don't pay much attention to these things but didn't Russia move heavily to chinese market after the EU sanctions? What are the odds that Putin will release another photo collection of him riding a horse shirtless after this? Russia did and it's hilarious. Between that, oil prices, the ruble, and literal locusts eating the Russian harvest and it really does look like the universe itself conspires against Russia.
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Aug 24, 2015 09:30
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Daduzi posted:Thing is whether or not it's serious depends on two factors: Alright I must be missing something here. As bullshit as China's government is, I don't understand why things are tanking as hard and fast as they are now. Like resource commodity prices are low, something that' should be a boon to China's manufacturing center. Also oil is really low right now, which should be another boon to China's economy and ability to export it's products. The country has also signed a ton of trade agreements recently. While there's definitly a bubble and some stuff is overvalued, shouldn't this mean good things for the fundamentals of China's economy in the future?
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Aug 24, 2015 09:40
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Shadoer posted:While there's definitly a bubble and some stuff is overvalued, shouldn't this mean good things for the fundamentals of China's economy in the future? Uh, how did you arrive at this conclusion?
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Aug 24, 2015 09:42
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Mercury_Storm posted:Uh, how did you arrive at this conclusion? The part where because resources are so cheap right now, Chinese manufacturing should be seeing good times ahead.
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Aug 24, 2015 09:44
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I am not very deeply vested in this or anything, but hasn't Chinese export been dropping for a while? And if they won't be able to sell all their manufacturing abroad, and nobody is able to buy it all locally (which can very well happen when the economy shits itself and people go broke), it's not all too much useful that they can manufacture for cheap when nobody buys it even at that price.
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Aug 24, 2015 09:52
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Shadoer posted:Alright I must be missing something here. As bullshit as China's government is, I don't understand why things are tanking as hard and fast as they are now. I'm not an economist but I wouldn't think low commodity prices would affect an exporter like China much at all, they would just pass any savings, or costs if commotiy prices rose, on to the end consumer they're exporting manufactured poo poo to. It's good for the US, bad for commodity producers but for manufacturers like China nothing really changes
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Aug 24, 2015 09:57
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Teal posted:I am not very deeply vested in this or anything, but hasn't Chinese export been dropping for a while? Except I was under the impression that the American and European economies were doing better and consumption was expected to increase. So shouldn't that mean good times ahead for China's cheap crap? Like I'm not saying "Everything in China's fine and people are exaggerating", once the government decides to throw in the pension fund into the stock market and it doesn't do anything... well something is terribly wrong. I just want to know what this thing is and how hosed the rest of us are as a result.
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Aug 24, 2015 09:57
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Teal posted:I am not very deeply vested in this or anything, but hasn't Chinese export been dropping for a while? China in many ways has already been out competed in the labor market, and unfortunately problem with cheap commodity prices is that it means it is cheaper for everyone else as well. They may very well be stuck in a lower-middle income trap, their domestic consumption simply isn't strong enough to support manufacturing growth but their labor prices are still too high to compete versus the true bottom of the barrel. Shadoer posted:Except I was under the impression that the American and European economies were doing better and consumption was expected to increase. So shouldn't that mean good times ahead for China's cheap crap? "Doing better" in a very narrow sense, growth is positive (well in the US at least) but wages are still very flat and much of the job growth that has happened is in low paying and/or part time labor. In Europe, unemployment is still high in many countries and even then many of them are struggling to grow. Japan is back in recession. It is basically a portion of a broader consumption crisis, there are plenty of factories and oil wells but demand isn't in the right place. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:05 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 09:59
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Shadoer posted:Except I was under the impression that the American and European economies were doing better and consumption was expected to increase. So shouldn't that mean good times ahead for China's cheap crap? The problem is that for China to keep relying on the export model the US would have to buy exponentially more stuff than it does now, as opposed to just slightly more stuff which is what a comparatively good US economy means. You can only go so far by hitching your wagon to the US, especially when you have 5 times as many people as the US who all want to have a high standard of living
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Aug 24, 2015 10:03
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Shadoer posted:The part where because resources are so cheap right now, Chinese manufacturing should be seeing good times ahead. You have it a bit backwards. The reason commodities are so cheap is because demand mysteriously dried up for them. 7% GDP growth though amirite?
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Aug 24, 2015 10:07
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Shadoer posted:Alright I must be missing something here. As bullshit as China's government is, I don't understand why things are tanking as hard and fast as they are now. Remember, in a sense none of this is real. Stock markets operate to a large extent on a form of mass hysteria. What's real is less important than what is percieved to be real. Beijing's ham fisted attempts to shore up the stock market and devalue the RMB are causing investors to conclude that 1) the Chinese economy is nowhere near as healthy as official statistics make it out to be and 2) the CCP is far from infallible. This causes re-evaluation of investments that are predicated on Chinese growth, which causes sell-offs, which causes further sell-offs, which causes further sell-offs etc. More to the point, though, cheap oil and commodities aren't enough to fix the fundamental problem that China's 7% growth figures are, and for a long time have been, a sham. A lot of investments were made on the basis of those figures, and as soon as confidence in the figures evaporates (due to the government's seeming economic ineptitude) so do the investments. Nobody knows what the real figures are, but there seems to be a consensus that they're somewhere between 4% and -4%. For cheap oil and commodities to fix things, they'd need to result in at least a 3% boost to GDP. That's unlikely, given international growth rates.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:09
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ocrumsprug posted:You have it a bit backwards. And now things are clicking into place... Also the European Markets are crashing as well. 230 Billion Euro's have just disappeared from the markets... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...dbath-live.html quote:Wipe out: €230bn struck off European shares this morning
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Aug 24, 2015 10:11
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Daduzi posted:Remember, in a sense none of this is real. Stock markets operate to a large extent on a form of mass hysteria. What's real is less important than what is percieved to be real. Beijing's ham fisted attempts to shore up the stock market and devalue the RMB are causing investors to conclude that 1) the Chinese economy is nowhere near as healthy as official statistics make it out to be and 2) the CCP is far from infallible. This causes re-evaluation of investments that are predicated on Chinese growth, which causes sell-offs, which causes further sell-offs, which causes further sell-offs etc. If anything the complete lack of veracity in their statistics is probably going to be a even bigger headache, everyone is going to be assuming the worst once now that confidence has finally broken down. There is a certain massaging that goes on with all statistics, but at a certain point you lie too blatantly for too long you lose control of the narrative.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:15
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Ardennes posted:If anything the complete lack of veracity in their statistics is probably going to be a even bigger headache, everyone is going to be assuming the worst once now that confidence has finally broken down. There is a certain massaging that goes on with all statistics, but at a certain point you lie too blatantly for too long you lose control of the narrative. Okay China's cooking the books and the Chinese economy isn't doing as well as the government reported, and hell considering it's unemployment rate has apparently stayed strangely the same for some time now, it's possible that China is already in recession and may have been there for some time. ... and now 44 Billion Euro's has evacuated from the FTSE in a mere hour. ... So the sell off is basically because everyone realizes we are all hosed, but we don't know how hosed we are yet so everyone's assuming the worst. Alright I think I understand what is happening now. We are all so totally hosed.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:21
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I don't think we're totally hosed. I doubt this reaches anywhere near 07/08 levels worldwide.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:23
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Shadoer posted:Okay China's cooking the books and the Chinese economy isn't doing as well as the government reported, and hell considering it's unemployment rate has apparently stayed strangely the same for some time now, it's possible that China is already in recession and may have been there for some time. Well the issue at this point is that the US is still doing like I said "okay" and a rout in China may not be enough to cause a recession here. That said, I don't think the Fed is going to be able to raise rates for a while, and even then QE may have to return because fiscal stimulus is politically impossible. The US may be able to stay out of a recession, it is going to be harder for the rest of the developed world with some exceptions. That said, some barely positive growth in the US isn't enough to solve the issue. I am thinking it may be more similar to the 1997 Asian Crisis than an actual 2008-09 or worse scenario. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 10:25
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Cubey posted:I don't think we're totally hosed. I doubt this reaches anywhere near 07/08 levels worldwide. Except, correct me if I'm wrong (which I probably am) a lot of companies were banking on being able to shore up their revenue by selling to the Chinese market. Heck on a darker note, the whole era of really cheap credit has been because of China... and if China's this hosed, doesn't that mean the age of cheap credit we've been enjoying going to come to an end terrifyingly soon? Ardennes posted:Well the issue at this point is that the US is still doing like I said "okayish" and a rout in China may not be enough to cause a recession here. That said, I don't think the Fed is going to be able to raise rates for a while, and even then QE may have to return because fiscal stimulus is politically impossible. Okay so basically China's hosed, emerging markets are hosed, North America might get off without getting hosed. That sounds not nearly as bad.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:27
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Shadoer posted:Except, correct me if I'm wrong (which I probably am) a lot of companies were banking on being able to shore up their revenue by selling to the Chinese market. Heck on a darker note, the whole era of really cheap credit has been because of China... and if China's this hosed, doesn't that mean the age of cheap credit we've been enjoying going to come to an end terrifyingly soon? If anything treasuries may spike and interest rates may go down, in the short term as the world looks for a safe harbor. I don't think a collapse in China would actually affect US credit markets much. As for North America, the US itself may do okay, Mexico and Canada may be harder hit though. It is probably going to be a lot more expensive for Canadians to go across the border. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:36 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 10:32
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Ardennes posted:If anything treasuries may spike and interest rates may go down, in the short term as the world looks for a safe harbor. I don't think a collapse in China would actually effect US credit markets much. Alright, this then doesn't sound as bad as I was thinking... Ardennes posted:As for North America, the US itself may do okay, Mexico and Canada may be harder hit though. It is probably going to be a lot more expensive for Canadians to go across the border. Well gently caress me. Edit: Oh and this popped up http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...dbath-live.html quote:China to limit local government debt sales
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Aug 24, 2015 10:34
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Cubey posted:I don't think we're totally hosed. I doubt this reaches anywhere near 07/08 levels worldwide. This has potential for some countries to be far worse than 07/08 e.g. Australia was largely undamaged in that, but in this it will be one of the worst hit. Also the big issue is if China stops buying US debt or starts shifting/selling off some of its existing debt to free up USD as a fighting fund, that will have significant ripples and could trigger a serious world wide panic as it would undermine the worlds reserve currency. Hence why the USD isn't rising that much instead money is moving into the Yen and Euro as their is an unquantifiable risk to the USD.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:46
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At least this assures an NDP victory in Canada.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:55
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Ardennes posted:If anything treasuries may spike and interest rates may go down, in the short term as the world looks for a safe harbor. I don't think a collapse in China would actually affect US credit markets much. I'd keep an eye on the fracking boom that's now going bust thanks to commodities deflation. Quite a few people in the US could get burnt depending on who owns the debt that built all the now loss-making fracking wells.
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Aug 24, 2015 11:14
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Aug 24, 2015 13:08
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Copy > Paste into document "US.txt"
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Aug 24, 2015 14:42
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Check out @XHNews's Tweet: https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/635655557551030272?s=09
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Aug 24, 2015 14:56
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Another big problem with China's export market is that there are now cheaper places to put your sweatshop. You'll still see MADE IN CHINA on some stuff, especially bootleg products (because they've got the distribution to more easily sell bootlegs to the West), but a lot of stuff is now made in other countries that care even less about how their citizens are treated. You can only be sweatshop to the world if you out-brutalize everyone else, and they've been failing to do that in recent years.
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Aug 24, 2015 15:02
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Cultural Imperial posted:Check out @XHNews's Tweet: https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/635655557551030272?s=09 That is pure gold.
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Aug 24, 2015 15:13
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Ardennes posted:I am thinking it may be more similar to the 1997 Asian Crisis than an actual 2008-09 or worse scenario. I remember the 1997 Asian Crisis. I remember I got a TV for really cheap. Jeez, China in a booming economy can't do crap for product safety. Imagine what it's going to be like when they start cutting corners.
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Aug 24, 2015 15:19
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Goddamn it's a thunderdome out there today:
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Aug 24, 2015 15:23
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Cultural Imperial posted:Check out @XHNews's Tweet: https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/635655557551030272?s=09 I loving love the use of the word join  Join. Not cause of, no, because heaven to betsy its all the fault of...
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Aug 24, 2015 15:24
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Junior G-man posted:Goddamn it's a thunderdome out there today: Today China finally helped start the global revolution. I'm going to share this with all the Chinese patriots I meet online. And thank them for advancing the revolution. 
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Aug 24, 2015 15:27
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BCR posted:I loving love the use of the word join "Its not our fault, we swear!"
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Aug 24, 2015 15:28
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BCR posted:I loving love the use of the word join The image would be better served with the layers stating "stock freeze" and "gov intervention"
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Aug 24, 2015 15:36
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jm20 posted:The image would be better served with the layers stating "stock freeze" and "gov intervention" The 'Gov Intervention' would be some guy sticking his finger in the deluge to try to stop it at this point....
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Aug 24, 2015 15:37
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Venomous posted:At least this assures an NDP victory in Canada. Yeah, right... About that...
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Aug 24, 2015 15:44
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Things really aren't as bad as they seem.
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Aug 24, 2015 15:47
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