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christ doesn't xinhua know anything about political cartooning
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Aug 24, 2015 15:47
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OwlBot 2000 posted:Things really aren't as bad as they seem. I remember the Bear Stearns CEO saying something so similar.
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Aug 24, 2015 15:48
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OwlBot 2000 posted:Things really aren't as bad as they seem. Oh, give it time.
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Aug 24, 2015 15:49
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OwlBot 2000 posted:Things really aren't as bad as they seem.  I can't wait for the new wave of "those rear end in a top hat millenials don't believe in stock and are saving their money!" articles.
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Aug 24, 2015 15:56
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corn in the bible posted:Another big problem with China's export market is that there are now cheaper places to put your sweatshop. You'll still see MADE IN CHINA on some stuff, especially bootleg products (because they've got the distribution to more easily sell bootlegs to the West), but a lot of stuff is now made in other countries that care even less about how their citizens are treated. You can only be sweatshop to the world if you out-brutalize everyone else, and they've been failing to do that in recent years. I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto?
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Aug 24, 2015 15:57
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Capitalism creates global poor so that won't be a problem. From China, to Vietnam, to Bangladesh, and then into Africa. By that time, the US will probably be next up.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:00
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freebooter posted:I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto?
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Aug 24, 2015 16:00
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freebooter posted:I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto? I'm pretty sure Africa has a few nations willing to exploit their citizens.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:00
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El Scotch posted:Yeah, right... About that... Well, why wouldn't it? I would've thought that if the NDP were halfway competent, they would come out with something like 'The Tories are poo poo at economics b/c everything is hosed right now, and the Liberals haven't been any better at it when they've been in power, so only we can improve things'. Then again, I'm not Canadian, so I've no idea how hosed the discourse is over there, but I'd say the next two months won't be pretty for Harper as this poo poo develops.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:01
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ukle posted:Also the big issue is if China stops buying US debt or starts shifting/selling off some of its existing debt to free up USD as a fighting fund, that will have significant ripples and could trigger a serious world wide panic as it would undermine the worlds reserve currency. Hence why the USD isn't rising that much instead money is moving into the Yen and Euro as their is an unquantifiable risk to the USD. China selling US Debt isn't going to undermine US Debt, they only own ~11% of it. I don't think you understand what you're saying. There is so much demand for US debt right now that for all intents and purposes people are paying the US to lend it money. Reduced demand for US Debt would create rising interest rates, which would probably be a good thing as it would indicate stronger economies around the globe. Interest rates are so low (and likely to go lower and stay low as nations seek a safe harbor) that the US should probably be embarking on major infrastructure spending.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:01
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freebooter posted:I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto? Welp, most of Sub Saharan Africa still hasn't ridden the sweatshop gravy train, so the race to the bottom can keep on going for a while. E: f,b
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Aug 24, 2015 16:03
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freebooter posted:I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto? robots
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Aug 24, 2015 16:05
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What's the worst case scenario and how likely is it? A stock implosion could topple the housing market and the shadow banking system, too, right?
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Aug 24, 2015 16:05
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Accretionist posted:What's the worst case scenario and how likely is it? A stock implosion could topple the housing market and the shadow banking system, too, right? Your likely worst case scenarios are going to occur in Canada and Australia. American companies that bank on Chinese consumption are going to eat some pretty bad poo poo. Many Americans in emerging energy markets are going to lose their jobs as commodities lose value, though that might can be ameliorated if the powers that be decide propping up prices is more important than screwing russia. Also Russia is hosed again but at this point they're basically the final scene from Requiem for a Dream.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:08
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freebooter posted:I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto? Thanks to globalization, which allows corporations to profit without needing to destroy all social welfare and workers' rights in the first world by shifting the worst (and most lucrative) aspects of capitalism to the third world, capitalism had been able to avoid 19th century style class warfare in developed countries. And when Mexican workers gets too expensive, there's Honduras, then China, then Bangladesh, but even they've started organizing and raising wages, so there's Cambodia.. But eventually they'll run out of countries to run away to, and the amount of capital required to develop SSA , provide electricity grids and infrastructure is too much to bear. Get ready for lower wages and more austerity in the first world.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:11
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freebooter posted:I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto? Well, ideally these industries move into a poor and underemployed area and once wages rise to a certain point, that local economy has advanced to the level where they don't need sweatshop labor to survive. The factories move to another poorer country and the prior laborers now enjoy the education and service industries that years of toiling in horrible conditions afforded them. So the answer is Africa. All your clothing is going to be made in Africa. Or China again, depending how bad their economy gets.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:13
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freebooter posted:I've always wondered - what happens when Vietnam's wages rise to the point where sweatshops are no longer viable, and then Indonesia's, and then Cambodia's, etc? What happens to the global economy when we no longer have super poor countries to shuck our working class jobs onto? there's always somalia
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Aug 24, 2015 16:13
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FizFashizzle posted:American companies that bank on Chinese consumption are going to eat some pretty bad poo poo. Weirdly enough one of the biggest losers so far has been Facebook so looks like there's more than just exposure to the Chinese market in play.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:14
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By the way, I'm seeing plenty of reporting on stock freezes but not unfreezes. Is 70% of the exchange still frozen?
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Aug 24, 2015 16:14
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Time to get in on the next big thing and build factories in Western/Central Africa. Somehow manage to unify them into one country and we'll get lots of "Pan-Africa, the next superpower??!?!" headlines.
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Aug 24, 2015 16:15
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Daduzi posted:Weirdly enough one of the biggest losers so far has been Facebook so looks like there's more than just exposure to the Chinese market in play. Investors aren't being as generous with anonymous payments to their side pieces 
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Aug 24, 2015 16:21
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Murgos posted:China selling US Debt isn't going to undermine US Debt, they only own ~11% of it. What is the reasoning behind countries buying US debt? Like, I can understand businesses doing it. Financial institutions being required to have X% of their funds in what is considered a safe investment and all that, but with Countries that doesn't make sense. Where I am confused is the ROI. My understanding is that a bond has a poo poo ROI relative to things like infrastructure and education. Why would you buy up another country’s debt when it is a relatively bad investment of your own wealth? Is buying US debt just a way to make sure that we don't have to resort to printing cash to pay our debts(or just preventing the dollar from inflating in general)? Edit: If anyone knows a good place for me to start researching that, it would be amazing. TeenageArchipelago fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 16:53
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:What is the reasoning behind countries buying US debt? Like, I can understand businesses doing it. Financial institutions being required to have X% of their funds in what is considered a safe investment and all that, but with Countries that doesn't make sense. First, remember that buying US debt is literally buying a Treasury Bond. You're buying something from the government that says "we'll pay you face value + some interest in the next few years". Since the US always pays its debts, you can buy a bunch of those and if your economy goes to poo poo then you still have something worth trading for.
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Aug 24, 2015 17:01
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:What is the reasoning behind countries buying US debt? Like, I can understand businesses doing it. Financial institutions being required to have X% of their funds in what is considered a safe investment and all that, but with Countries that doesn't make sense. It's useful to stash a chunk of your "rainy day fund" in a different stable currency. That way if both your economy and your currency get hosed up you still have something with value. In this case, China can still count on getting USD if needed, even if their economy and their currency get hosed up.
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Aug 24, 2015 17:04
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China buys U.S. debt because of their enormous trade surplus. They have left over US dollars and have to put it somewhere and that somewhere is US treasuries because it is low-risk and stable. But other than that it's not unusual for any entity to buy US debt. It's one of many kinds of debt that investors can buy each with unique properties depending on what you want in an investment.
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Aug 24, 2015 17:04
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wilderthanmild posted:Time to get in on the next big thing and build factories in Western/Central Africa. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria quote:Nigeria is considered to be an emerging market by the World Bank;[18] It has been identified as a regional power on the African continent,[17][19][20] a middle power in international affairs,[21][22][23][24] and has also been identified as an emerging global power.[25][26][27] Nigeria is a member of the MINT group of countries, which are widely seen as the globe's next "BRIC-like" economies. It is also listed among the "Next Eleven" economies set to become among the biggest in the world
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Aug 24, 2015 17:10
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computer parts posted:First, remember that buying US debt is literally buying a Treasury Bond. You're buying something from the government that says "we'll pay you face value + some interest in the next few years". A GIANT PARSNIP posted:It's useful to stash a chunk of your "rainy day fund" in a different stable currency. That way if both your economy and your currency get hosed up you still have something with value. Vladimir Putin posted:China buys U.S. debt because of their enormous trade surplus. They have left over US dollars and have to put it somewhere and that somewhere is US treasuries because it is low-risk and stable. Okay, so the reasoning is "We can sell bonds if things get hosed, but we can't sell roads," correct? Because that makes a lot of sense, especially when the whole "we have dollars we can't magically turn into something else" into account. Is this treated as a first line before things like taking out their own debt then? Like, instead of doing what the US did in 2008/9 with the bailouts where we took on a bit of debt, they can simply sell these bonds off, right?
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Aug 24, 2015 17:11
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:Okay, so the reasoning is "We can sell bonds if things get hosed, but we can't sell roads," correct? Because that makes a lot of sense, especially when the whole "we have dollars we can't magically turn into something else" into account. Is this treated as a first line before things like taking out their own debt then? Like, instead of doing what the US did in 2008/9 with the bailouts where we took on a bit of debt, they can simply sell these bonds off, right? yes. us bonds are literally treated as the baseline measurement of risk by many banking systems. you can easily trade them for other assets if you want, too, since everyone knows they are safe, meaning for a large monetary institution it's better to go ahead and buy bonds than do nothing with it at all since you can literally always find a buyer if you change your mind later on.
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Aug 24, 2015 17:27
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Dow has almost completely recovered now 
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Aug 24, 2015 17:27
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:Like, instead of doing what the US did in 2008/9 with the bailouts where we took on a bit of debt, they can simply sell these bonds off, right?
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Aug 24, 2015 17:28
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Daduzi posted:Weirdly enough one of the biggest losers so far has been Facebook so looks like there's more than just exposure to the Chinese market in play. That's mor because nobody trusts Facebook to retain value in a general stock downturn, so might as well duck out of it at the first sign of trouble. Sheng-ji Yang posted:Dow has almost completely recovered now Why are you so surprised?
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Aug 24, 2015 17:30
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Nintendo Kid posted:
Because it would make sense for it to drop, especially for companies with exposure to China which could see substantially diminished sales if the Chinese economy is as weak as feared. But gently caress what makes sense, stock markets are denominated by sentiment and feelings (greed and fear namely). Let's if this spurs a 6% upwards swing in China tonight.
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Aug 24, 2015 17:39
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Freezer posted:Because it would make sense for it to drop, especially for companies with exposure to China which could see substantially diminished sales if the Chinese economy is as weak as feared. It doesn't actually make sense for it to stay dropped severely, given that most of the components of the Dow that dropped don't have all that much connection to China, at least in ways that stock issues there would justify.
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Aug 24, 2015 17:43
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Nintendo Kid posted:It doesn't actually make sense for it to stay dropped severely, given that most of the components of the Dow that dropped don't have all that much connection to China, at least in ways that stock issues there would justify. I agree. This may have been akin to what happened to the U.S. in 2008. China was affected but it was mostly after effects.
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Aug 24, 2015 18:29
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:What is the reasoning behind countries buying US debt? Like, I can understand businesses doing it. Financial institutions being required to have X% of their funds in what is considered a safe investment and all that, but with Countries that doesn't make sense. US debt is purchased because it's generally regarded as safe: the US government will never go bankrupt. (If the tea party plays chicken too riskily, someone will shoot them all, I'm sure.) You know how your savings account is FDIC insured, but only up to $200k or something like that? Ever wonder how really rich people with millions in cash make sure their money doesn't go up in smoke? The answer is US debt. It is, after all, backed by the full faith and credit of the government, just like FDIC insurance. And the market for it is extremely liquid. So rich people (and corporations) treat US debt essentially like a savings account. Most US debt is domestic. The meme of "china owning the US" is basically bullshit, China's got like 7% of US debt. There is no significant economic advantage the US gets by being the "reserve currency" of the world, it's mostly a weird psychological thing, where people think it's important. The only real economic effect is that the cash in drug dealer's briefcases essentially amounts to a 0-interest loan to the government. It does have important political effects though: it's an awkward position to have large amounts of wealth denominated in your "enemy's" currency. Finally, with regards to your question about investment, it's a bit of a phantom. You're not used to thinking about money properly. China buys US debt mostly because its people make a lot of USD and those people then want to convert into RMB to actually spend on things. The government essentially "prints more RMB" and trades it for the dollars. Then it has to do something with those dollars, but they're essentially backing that newly printed currency now, so it can't be risky. So US debt. But the government can no more just decide to go spend that money on infrastructure/education/whatever than it can decide to just print money to spend on such things. The economic effects of doing either are identical.
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Aug 24, 2015 18:32
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I see layoffs going through fall and winter while the market stabilizes and US Manufacturing stars back up. Once that runs away I think we'll finish off better than we are now. Sillicon Valley's gonna be fuckedddd tho.
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Aug 24, 2015 18:33
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Dow has almost completely recovered now I know, somehow the United States has become the "safe haven market". Europe is still skull hosed.
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Aug 24, 2015 18:35
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icantfindaname's avatar is perfect for we thread lurkers today What episode is that from?
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Aug 24, 2015 18:37
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Shadoer posted:I know, somehow the United States has become the "safe haven market". Ever heard of the Global Financial Minotaur?
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Aug 24, 2015 18:42
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PerpetualSelf posted:Ever heard of the Global Financial Minotaur? Yup. 
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Aug 24, 2015 18:43
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