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Adventure Pigeon posted:Gravity correcting Wile E Coyote after he's been running off the edge of a cliff for a while. So not that bad then. (Remember, he always survived and was fine afterward.)
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Aug 24, 2015 21:23
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fart blood posted:So not that bad then. (Remember, he always survived and was fine afterward.) He never managed to capture the American Roadrunner though.
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Aug 24, 2015 21:24
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Fojar38 posted:He never managed to capture the American Roadrunner though. Someone should campaign with a slogan of "meep meep"
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Aug 24, 2015 21:25
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fart blood posted:So not that bad then. (Remember, he always survived and was fine afterward.) Nah, it'll be like when he walks away in the shape of an accordion after his trap fails and traps him instead.
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Aug 24, 2015 21:29
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Maybe people are just relieved that this time around the financial apocalypse is in Asia instead of the last 7 years.
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Aug 24, 2015 21:31
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Krispy Kareem posted:As other people have said, there are no apparent ticking time bombs (student loans are an investment!) and overall the U.S. economy is well balanced. Household debt has decreased, savings are up, and corporate America is flushed with cash. So how is $50-250k in nondischargeable debt that slowly sucks at future consumption like a vampire an investment, again? I like to think this whole thing is karma for China destroying reefs on an industrial scale for literally no reason.
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Aug 24, 2015 21:47
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Radbot posted:So how is $50-250k in nondischargeable debt that slowly sucks at future consumption like a vampire an investment, again? Either way, the debt is overwhelmingly owned by the federal government, and therefore isn't going to work like private/semi-private debt (like mortgages).
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Aug 24, 2015 22:00
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Ardennes posted:Either way, the debt is overwhelmingly owned by the federal government, and therefore isn't going to work like private/semi-private debt (like mortgages). Who said it would? That it will remain an increasingly large drag on consumer's ability to spend in the US is what I'm positing.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:08
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so are we gonna see like rioting in the streets in china over this or the Chinese great depression going to just be swept under the rug by the central government.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:19
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Radbot posted:Who said it would? That it will remain an increasingly large drag on consumer's ability to spend in the US is what I'm positing. And? It doesn't set anything up for destabilization, and the US isn't worried about extreme exponential growth just to keep from falling apart.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:28
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so are we gonna see like rioting in the streets in china over this or the Chinese great depression going to just be swept under the rug by the central government. A little from column A, a little from column B.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:29
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so are we gonna see like rioting in the streets in china over this or the Chinese great depression going to just be swept under the rug by the central government. I don't know it think it depends on the ability of the central government to manage the crisis.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:29
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Nintendo Kid posted:And? It doesn't set anything up for destabilization, and the US isn't worried about extreme exponential growth just to keep from falling apart. And it's already priced in. We're already seeing the effects of that present day and that's the kind of growth we're seeing.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:30
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so are we gonna see like rioting in the streets in china over this or the Chinese great depression going to just be swept under the rug by the central government. The Chinese Government basically said 'You all need to buy stocks with your mattress money. It's the way forward for China'. So many Chinese Citizens did what good Chinese Citizens should do. They put their mattress cash into the markets. Then the headline booming bull market stumbled a little. The Government hopped in and pledged to keep it propped up by doing large scale share buyouts. They did this a lot to prevent people from pulling their funds out of the market. And the citizens were appeased. Some sold, but most stood the course and were rewarded with moderate gains (by Chinese standards) continuing forward. They also valued the guarantee* of the government to continue to buy stocks and support the markets during times of turbulence. Then the currency was devalued. Then the market began to fall again. The citizens said, 'Well, our government will come to prop up the market again'. But... the government didn't. It said that corrections were necessary. Inline with the devaluation, they're allowing the market to get where it should have been. And a bunch of mattress money was lost. Something to consider is that the funds on the Shanghai index aren't being invested into by large financial institutions in the same scale that NYSE and other western based exchanges are capitalized. China has a much stronger component of 'mom and pop' investors (as Marketplace put it). It's more than appropriate to frame the crash as something very real to the personal financial lives of the Chinese middle class. Honestly, I'd be pretty pissed. Chinese Citizens have embraced a societal contract where freedom, information, and autonomy are largely ceded to the government with the understanding that the government will protect the assets and keep the market booming forward through rigorous management. This should guarantee a decent living for people that are buying into the government by putting their hard earned savings into the market. Unfortunately, the government has reneged on that deal. I'd expect some loose rioting, lots of propaganda, and maybe Hong Kong getting a little more steam under it's push for strong autonomy. I also doubt State Media will do a lot of in depth human interest pieces of the victims of the market collapse.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:31
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cheesetriangles posted:People that read books will be the first against the wall when the revolution comes. Literacy is a miracle of Lhankor Mhy and as long as you obtain a suitably glorious prosthetic beard you will be a valued member of society.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:32
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How does letting the market correct gel with hey maybe pump all the pension money into this? If they were going to let it correct and stop burning all their reserves on propping it up why sink pension money into a market that was burning down?
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Aug 24, 2015 22:36
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cheesetriangles posted:How does letting the market correct gel with hey maybe pump all the pension money into this? If they were going to let it correct and stop burning all their reserves on propping it up why sink pension money into a market that was burning down? Can't let it be TOO correct.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:38
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Fishvilla posted:The citizens said, 'Well, our government will come to prop up the market again'. This didn't happen. The government is currently flailing around trying to prop up the stock markets. They just don't have the tools. If the government admitted corrections were necessary you'd see blood in the streets. They'll never admit they caused this or let it happen.
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Aug 24, 2015 22:42
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cheesetriangles posted:How does letting the market correct gel with hey maybe pump all the pension money into this? If they were going to let it correct and stop burning all their reserves on propping it up why sink pension money into a market that was burning down? This increases the capital pool available for purchasing of Chinese domestic shares. Opening domestically listed shares to be purchased by local-level pensions is a move meant to increase investor confidence to offset some of the investor fears about a flailing market. This is opening up hundreds of billions of yen to flow into the Shanghai exchange. This is a good move for long-term stability on the exchange, and a short term correction isn't really what the pension funds are afraid of. It's a way of shoring up the exchange without having the central government holding the bag. Edit for clarity. Also this: the talent deficit posted:This didn't happen. The government is currently flailing around trying to prop up the stock markets. They just don't have the tools. If the government admitted corrections were necessary you'd see blood in the streets. They'll never admit they caused this or let it happen. Eh - Chinese fiscal policy is 'announced' as often through it's action as through detailed meetings notes. This is China, not the U.S.S. Fed Reserve with Captain Yellen at the helm word-smithing their way to capitalist victory. We're not going to see a memo from the government saying 'our bad - probably need a bit of a stock price dip'. I'll agree with you there. But changes in actions, not declared policy, are the best indicators of 'actual' Chinese policy. Letting this collapse is a tacit acknowledgement of the need for correction in the markets. They know they can't buy out stocks forever. Their methods of dealing with previously overvalued stocks will change, but the core decision to let stocks fall is a change in policy. We're already seeing this with the liberalization of capital allowed into the market as demonstrated by pension changes (see above). Fishvilla fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 22:43
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so are we gonna see like rioting in the streets in china over this or the Chinese great depression going to just be swept under the rug by the central government. The real trigger of the Chinese Apocalypse would be a housing bubble crash, but that might not actually happen so China might go out with a whimper instead of a bang, with the government cheesetriangles posted:How does letting the market correct gel with hey maybe pump all the pension money into this? If they were going to let it correct and stop burning all their reserves on propping it up why sink pension money into a market that was burning down? I guess they were hoping they'd be able to have the market only drop a little bit, and would then need a suitable excuse for that? But ultimately they couldn't
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Aug 24, 2015 22:45
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It difficult to imagine how the DPRC's housing bubble will make it through this correction.
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Aug 24, 2015 23:05
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There are going to be a lot of pissed off people and probably a decent amount of riots that we'll never hear about.
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Aug 24, 2015 23:23
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Radbot posted:So how is $50-250k in nondischargeable debt that slowly sucks at future consumption like a vampire an investment, again? Well, first it's not as bad as people make it out to be (fully half of college graduates have no debt and the average is 20k), second it's already correcting itself as for-profit schools shrink enrollment and college costs stabilize, and third you have a tough time reading sarcasm.
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Aug 24, 2015 23:32
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Fishvilla posted:This increases the capital pool available for purchasing of Chinese domestic shares. Opening domestically listed shares to be purchased by local-level pensions is a move meant to increase investor confidence to offset some of the investor fears about a flailing market. So they're just adding more capital flow into the markets to improve stability in the long term rather than throwing pension money into the fire in a desperate attempt to put it out? I would think if they were going for long term stability, they'd wait until after the market had finished correcting before allowing pensions to invest.
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Aug 24, 2015 23:33
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Adventure Pigeon posted:So they're just adding more capital flow into the markets to improve stability in the long term rather than throwing pension money into the fire in a desperate attempt to put it out? I would think if they were going for long term stability, they'd wait until after the market had finished correcting before allowing pensions to invest. They didn't just let them start buying the stocks (i.e. flaming money pit). The Guardian posted:According to the new rules, pension funds can also invest in convertible bonds, money-market instruments, asset-backed securities, index futures and bond futures in China, as well as the country’s major infrastructure projects. The central government is liberalizing domestic assets allowed at local pension levels to provide them with a better toolbox for managing the local pension risks. This also just-so-happens to inject hundreds of billions of dollars to stabilize the stock market, help keep the hyper elevated GDP up (i.e. infrastructure projects) and other investments that would be considered lower risk than the flaming money pit. This frees up the pensions to purchase the risky flaming money pit and offset those risks with more stable bonds, MMI, asset securities, etc... Basically, they're letting the local pensions build a more balanced risk profile while also getting needed  into their flaming money pit of a stock market. The timing is because they're essentially forced to do so unless they want to hold all of the risk of the stock market themselves during this giant clusterfuck. These policies have been under review for some time now, but I imagine the timing of the policy change isn't a coincidence. Fishvilla fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 23:48
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Krispy Kareem posted:Well, first it's not as bad as people make it out to be (fully half of college graduates have no debt and the average is 20k), second it's already correcting itself as for-profit schools shrink enrollment and college costs stabilize, and third you have a tough time reading sarcasm. $35,000 actually.
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Aug 24, 2015 23:52
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Sure are still a lot of people calling what's going on in China a "transition" instead of "crash."
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Aug 24, 2015 23:57
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cheesetriangles posted:People that read books will be the first against the wall when the revolution comes. You say that like they don't know the kitchen sink chemistry to make the fun explosives.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:11
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Fishvilla posted:The timing is because they're essentially forced to do so unless they want to hold all of the risk of the stock market themselves during this giant clusterfuck. These policies have been under review for some time now, but I imagine the timing of the policy change isn't a coincidence. Given how much China's government likes stability, the timing is still pretty suspect. There's also the question of whether "may invest up to 30%" really means "put 30% in the stock market now or else." It would make them look kinda bad and reduce investor confidence if they allowed pension funds to invest then none did, which is the last thing they want right now, so I imagine there's behind the scenes pressure.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:18
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Market opens in like 2 hours or so right? I'm ready for another wild ride.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:21
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cheesetriangles posted:Market opens in like 2 hours or so right? I'm ready for another wild ride. I bought some punkin seeds to snack on while I watch.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:22
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How much further would the Chinese stock markets need to suffer in order to lose the majority of their hold on US markets? Or would that be way too much for the US to handle?
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Aug 25, 2015 00:46
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Radbot posted:I don't know, you'd have to ask them. I'm trying to retire eventually so stock market crashes are generally A Bad Thing(TM). Only if you plan on retiring this/next year.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:50
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GoutPatrol posted:Only if you plan on retiring this/next year. Yeah, unless you specifically invested in the Chinese market recently before its peak, the more prudent strategy is probably not to panic. It is also a real mistake to assume you can retire based on a "never ending bull market," that never works.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:53
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, unless you specifically invested in the Chinese market recently before its peak, the more prudent strategy is probably not to panic. It is also a real mistake to assume you can retire based on a "never ending bull market," that never works. That's why this is so glorious; honestly the fallout in the developed world isn't going to be particularly severe unless you put literally all your chips in the China basket in which case you deserve to lose your money for making a dumb investment.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:54
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Grouchio posted:How much further would the Chinese stock markets need to suffer in order to lose the majority of their hold on US markets? Or would that be way too much for the US to handle? The Chinese stock market has no hold on the U.S. market. Except that U.S. companies do business in China and will see fewer sales. I'd be shocked if the Chinese stock market was even a fraction of the size of the U.S. exchanges. The problem right now is no one knows exactly how bad it's going to be in Asia and if there's one thing markets hate it's uncertainty.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:56
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One hour until the Chinese markets open for black Tuesday. 
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Aug 25, 2015 00:56
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Krispy Kareem posted:The Chinese stock market has no hold on the U.S. market. Except that U.S. companies do business in China and will see fewer sales. yeah. china barely holds a double digit percent of US debt and its been blown up in the media into "china owns our childrens' futures" by demagogues so its not surprising that people think its true.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:59
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If I were Chinese right now and just lost my life savings after putting it in the stock market because the government told me to I would be unbelievably pissed. The past year and a half have been like one long string of Chinese fuckups both domestically and internationally.
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Aug 25, 2015 01:01
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Fojar38 posted:If I were Chinese right now and just lost my life savings after putting it in the stock market because the government told me to I would be unbelievably pissed. Don't forget they put your pension into the fire.
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Aug 25, 2015 01:14
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