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Dahbadu posted:You guys really need to stop paying attention to "unfavorables" or whatever other red herring you want to focus on. You may be right. I just don't think they're taking Trump very seriously right now, or if they are, they don't know how to respond to him. They may not have to. If the polls are the same come December, you can be sure there will be a lot of people on the right trying to tear Trump down.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:51
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XK posted:http://www.rawstory.com/2015/08/supporters-tell-horrified-gop-pollster-why-they-trust-trump-to-make-america-great-again-its-on-his-hat/ People are starting to realize that the Republican establishment does not give two shits about social issues. The real power in the party only cares about economic issues, while the social issues are there to fool people into voting against their interests. They're never going to do anything to stop illegal immigration because their backers think exploitable workers with no legal protections is fantastic. They're never going to do anything about gay marriage, abortion or gun control at a federal level because then they wouldn't have them as political footballs to make promises about. I'm so glad people's anger over this has finally been given form, and his name is Trump.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:51
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XK posted:http://www.rawstory.com/2015/08/supporters-tell-horrified-gop-pollster-why-they-trust-trump-to-make-america-great-again-its-on-his-hat/ "Describe Trump in one word" "kick rear end and take names"
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Aug 25, 2015 16:52
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It's August 2015... We can speculate all we want but there are a few things we know: 1. The base is pissed off, 2. Trump is their guy for the moment, 3. Their guy has unlimited funds, a huge mouth, and access to every media platform on the planet... Whatever happens between now and Iowa and NH is really up in the air, but if Trump keeps up this momentum and wins those two states, this is going to be a long, brutal, and dirty primary.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:53
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Jewel Repetition posted:People are starting to realize that the Republican establishment does not give two shits about social issues. The real power in the party only cares about economic issues, while the social issues are there to fool people into voting against their interests. They're never going to do anything to stop illegal immigration because their backers think exploitable workers with no legal protections is fantastic. They're never going to do anything about gay marriage, abortion or gun control at a federal level because then they wouldn't have them as political footballs to make promises about. I'm so glad people's anger over this has finally been given form, and his name is Trump. People used to say this about the Republican party w.r.t. abortion, but they've been making a lot of "progress" on that front lately and it's pretty lovely. The party isn't just businessmen cackling as they gently caress over the rubes (although that's a huge part of it), some true believers have worked their way up into it.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:55
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Alfred P. Pseudonym posted:The Cowboys own This can't be emphasized enough. It's perhaps the only thing Christie should get positive marks for.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:56
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Is it really unreasonable to believe that 30% of GOP primary voters make decisions based on spite instead of electability? Running negative ads against Trump is just going to harden their support.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:56
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HappyHippo posted:People used to say this about the Republican party w.r.t. abortion, but they've been making a lot of "progress" on that front lately and it's pretty lovely. The party isn't just businessmen cackling as they gently caress over the rubes (although that's a huge part of it), some true believers have worked their way up into it. Almost all of that progress is at the state and local level. I think it's also short-lived. People are pissed at the forced rape laws and the anti-women laws that this "progress" consists of.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:58
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Jewel Repetition posted:People are starting to realize that the Republican establishment does not give two shits about social issues. The real power in the party only cares about economic issues, while the social issues are there to fool people into voting against their interests. They're never going to do anything to stop illegal immigration because their backers think exploitable workers with no legal protections is fantastic. They're never going to do anything about gay marriage, abortion or gun control at a federal level because then they wouldn't have them as political footballs to make promises about. I'm so glad people's anger over this has finally been given form, and his name is Trump. The establishment also isn't huffing their own farts about where the national polling is on issues. They know having a fight about immigration hurts them. They know having a fight about gay rights generally hurts them, and it's the same for women's rights or reproductive rights. The problem is that the GOP primary process is designed in such a way that it forces candidates to step on every landmine before entering the general. They tried to put a stop to it by not having as many debates this cycle, but it turns out candidates can bicker with each other publicly through Twitter just as easily as they can in an actual RNC-sanctioned debate. The GOP is real real lucky more people aren't paying close attention to this poo poo. The problem is that Trump is a big name that people DO care about. The man has been on network TV in decent slots for years, and so the media are covering him way more than they would be covering the frontrunner if Trump weren't in the race. So Trump is actually forcing the public to have a look at what the GOP is about way sooner than the RNC wanted to articulate all this stuff. That's typically what the convention is for, but here we are in loving August of 2015 with the nation transifxed by Trump's primary bid. So Trump is a real loving disaster for the GOP. So what I'm saying is that Reince Priebus is probably drinking a lot.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:58
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XK posted:CNN front page right now: "Bush: 'Anchor babies' = Asians" "Kids: Adults can't keep people safe" "Man stays in cement home as fire rages" CNN is a pretty great journalistic institution.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:01
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HappyHippo posted:People used to say this about the Republican party w.r.t. abortion, but they've been making a lot of "progress" on that front lately and it's pretty lovely. The party isn't just businessmen cackling as they gently caress over the rubes (although that's a huge part of it), some true believers have worked their way up into it. I think W was the true synthesis. I know he playacted the folksy downhome thing but I have no doubt that he was a true-believing social conservative animated by Evangelical delusions. Look at how he jam-packed the bureaucracy with Liberty University alumni. And with W's two terms as the most recent Republican administration, there's still a ton of ranking GOP hands who came up in that weirdo environment and probably still hate gay people and premarital sex.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:01
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Feather posted:Almost all of that progress is at the state and local level. I think it's also short-lived. People are pissed at the forced rape laws and the anti-women laws that this "progress" consists of. That's because anything they might get through would just be vetoed. If they get the executive I'm fairly confident they'll start pushing for more restrictions at the federal level.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:02
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Part of the thing with Trump is that there's no single alternative candidate to stop him.TheScott2K posted:The more Jeb! fails, the more Rubio can't wear a goddamn suit, the more Scott Walker's state descends into post apocalyptic chaos...Trump's unfavorables will just melt away. He is what their voters want. Their racist, moronic voters. XK posted:CNN front page right now: "Bush: 'Anchor babies' = Asians" Right now the same thing is starting to happen with Walker.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:04
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GalacticAcid posted:I think W was the true synthesis. You're probably right, but the tea party wave in 2010 was when they really started taking over. HappyHippo fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 17:05
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I still have yet to hear a plausible scenario where either Trump drops out, ahead of the other establishment candidates OR Trump's support dissipates and manages to funnel it's way to a single candidate to put them over the top. Trump has said he is willing to put a billion dollars into his race, so if Trump drops out, it won't because of funds - which is why most candidates drop out. Who are Trump supporters going to vote for? Goofy looking motherfucker Scott Walker? Carson? Someone needs to give that man a red bull because he put me to sleep at the debate. Chris Christie? That ship has been sinking for a year. Trump should sue Christie for trying to use telling it like it is as his slogan, because Christie sucks at it and Trump has been owning it, at least as far as republican primary voters are concerned. Perpetual Disaster JEB! ? Carly Fiorina? Maybe for vice president but that's her political ceiling if she's lucky. Ted Cruz, all the spite but none of the money, charisma or moderate positions that Trump has. A few months ago I thought Walker was going to walk away with the nomination because of his conservative cred, initial polls in Iowa and tough on unions stance, but Trump has flipped logic on its head. Here's my prediction for the nomination from most likely to least: 1. Trump 2. Rubio, provided he dosen't say anything else stupid AND Trump's support magically evaporates or he gets stuck by lightning on one of his golf courses. 3. Kasich - provided the above 2 get struck by lightning playing golf together. 4. No one else, sorry folks.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:06
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Jeb!'s conviction that treating hispanics like people will win him support among Republicans would be funny if it weren't so sad.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:09
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I'm pretty skeptical about Trump going forward as well, but polling > 30% in a field of 17 is pretty outstanding, IMO.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:13
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I hear inanimate carbon rod is still considering a GOP run.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:14
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Trust me, they're taking Trump seriously and have been taken him seriously starting before the first debate (which he nailed, BTW). We should focus on Bernie now. Did you know he's owning Hillary in the latest NH PPP poll? 4+ months out too. Note that Bernie is way more vulnerable to negative media than Trump is, so the Dem primary is way more unpredictable, but still. But Trump and Bernie, they can't win, because... - "unfavorables" (uh huh) - "structural process of the primary" (sounds fancy) - "minorities that already belong to each respective party don't like Bernie or Trump, and won't like them" ("see, minorities are aliens and don't respond to things like strength, charisma, anger and authenticity") - "superdelegates" (ummm, you know when and in what circumstances superdelegates come into play, right?) - "they have no chance" (said by many "serious people") - "these aren't serious campaigns and the candidates aren't serious" (said by many "serious people") - "2% chance for Trump" (538, less than a week ago) - "5% chance for Bernie" (538, less than a week ago) - "it's too early and nothing matters" (saying about a primary that is dominating most forms a media like no primary has before at this stage in the game. How many viewers did that Fox debate have again?) - "Trump has a really weak ground game. The ground game matters a lot for the GOP primary." (not realizing that "ground games" primarily help getting people out to vote for Dems, and also for candidates that aren't inspiring) Dahbadu fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 17:16
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railroad terror posted:Also, the anti-Trump ad blitz hasn't even started yet. It will. I'm a fan of Trumpmentum as the next guy, and want to see this train go on as long as possible, but it's gonna derail. There is no Trumpmentum. There is only the Trumpocalypse.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:17
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Trump is the only name that everyone knows so when pollsters call some Middle American household and read them a list of 17 names they just say Donald Trump since "he tells it like it is" and has "business experience." Plus he has the relatively small band of fanatics who frequent Breitbart and other garbage websites. He will not be the nominee.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:17
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Dahbadu posted:- "structural process of the primary" (sounds fancy) That is actually a serious hurdle for both of them.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:19
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Dahbadu posted:
This is one thing I think will sink Bernie, because my understanding of what a superdelegate is, is that basically it's some political crony granted powers equal to delegates bound by primary voters. Those people I tend to think will be "establishment" dems who are deeply rooted in the political process. So obviously they will vote for Clinton who is also establishment, and rooted in political networks. The republican side dosen't have superdelgates...I think...the primary system is very confusing.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:20
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Jewel Repetition posted:That is actually a serious hurdle for both of them. I agree that it sounds fancy and therefore serous people are likely to take it very seriously. Such as a "ground game" for the GOP primary. You know what a ground game for the GOP primary is? Talk radio and Fox news, and possibly Dudge or Freep or whatever now.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:21
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So Trump's VP choice, in having a hard time imagining who it is. He won't want any of the candidates he's been busy insulting, I don't think a senator it governor will denigrate themselves, and another rich rear end in a top hat like Mark Cuban would lose a tremendous amount of power by becoming a VP. I'm thinking he chooses another television or movie celebrity who is conservative but just well spoken enough to be taken seriously? Is Arnold Schwarzenegger eligible to hold the office of vice president?
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Aug 25, 2015 17:22
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sullat posted:There is no Trumpmentum. There is only the Trumpocalypse. And in its wake nothing shall remain on this wretched earth but Trumplodytes
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Aug 25, 2015 17:22
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greatn posted:So Trump's VP choice, in having a hard time imagining who it is. He won't want any of the candidates he's been busy insulting, I don't think a senator it governor will denigrate themselves, and another rich rear end in a top hat like Mark Cuban would lose a tremendous amount of power by becoming a VP. Carl Icahn.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:23
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greatn posted:
Since he cannot be president, the answer to that is no. The celebrity who you're thinking of is Oprah. comedy option: Ivanka Trump
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Aug 25, 2015 17:24
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greatn posted:So Trump's VP choice, in having a hard time imagining who it is. He won't want any of the candidates he's been busy insulting, I don't think a senator it governor will denigrate themselves, and another rich rear end in a top hat like Mark Cuban would lose a tremendous amount of power by becoming a VP.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:25
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it'll be the winner of The Presidential Apprentice
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Aug 25, 2015 17:27
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Dahbadu posted:- "structural process of the primary" (sounds fancy) Aren't there potential legal barriers to getting Bernie on the Democratic Primary ballot, since he hasn't run in any election as a Democrat in the last couple of decades?
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Aug 25, 2015 17:27
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Dahbadu posted:I agree that it sounds fancy and therefore serous people are likely to take it very seriously. Uh, no it isn't? Regardless of what happens, phone banking, canvassing, taking people to the polls, endorsement, monitoring turnout, and finessing volunteering cadres is still going to be what drives any primary. Its the reason why he's doing this: quote:His South Carolina operation — led by well-respected veteran operatives Ed McMullen and Jim Merrill, a former House majority leader in the state — is in the process of bringing on Nancy Mace, the first female graduate of the Citadel, as a coalitions director, according to a person with knowledge of the hiring. Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/donald-trump-2016-campaign-growing-pains-121695.html#ixzz3jqRhiT5Z
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Aug 25, 2015 17:28
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I got a question for Boosted (hope ya read this): Who did you think was going to win the GOP primary 4 years ago? Who did you think was going to win the GOP primary 8 years ago?
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Aug 25, 2015 17:28
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greatn posted:So Trump's VP choice, in having a hard time imagining who it is. He won't want any of the candidates he's been busy insulting, I don't think a senator it governor will denigrate themselves, and another rich rear end in a top hat like Mark Cuban would lose a tremendous amount of power by becoming a VP. David Petraeus so everyone can forget all the horrible poo poo Trump said about Mexicans and the entire general election can be drowned in classified security bullshit. Democrats will spend the entire time on defense explaining the rules in detailed essays and presentations and half of them will end up too deflated to even bother voting on election day. Hail Satan.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:29
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Shageletic posted:Uh, no it isn't? Regardless of what happens, phone banking, canvassing, taking people to the polls, endorsement, monitoring turnout, and finessing volunteering cadres is still going to be what drives any primary. Yes, it matters, but it doesn't matter as much for a GOP primary, especially when you have an inspiring candidate. My point is, it's a red herring, and Trump winning should not be attributed to the "amazing ground game" he had.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:30
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Wait, Michael Bay.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:31
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quote:“There’s a lot of turmoil going on in the campaign,” said a person who has advised Trump in the past. Way to be subtle with the hints on your source, politico
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Aug 25, 2015 17:32
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greatn posted:I'm thinking he chooses another television or movie celebrity who is conservative but just well spoken enough to be taken seriously? "Conservative" is such a slippery term when we're talking about Trump. He could pick just about anyone from Hollywood. My favorite idea from that category: Jonathan Frakes. Trump could call him Number One. (This whole thing goes out the window if he doesn't have the beard anymore, of course.)
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Aug 25, 2015 17:34
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Dahbadu posted:I got a question for Boosted (hope ya read this): Gonna love the answer to this. Seeing his increasingly batty posts every cycle has been a treasure. Dahbadu posted:Yes, it matters, but it doesn't matter as much for a GOP primary, especially when you have an inspiring candidate. My point is, it's a red herring, and Trump winning should not be attributed to the "amazing ground game" he had. Based on what exactly? This is what really has me perplexed about people's opinions in this thread. We're months away from the first primary, and people are already dead certain who's gonna win, and how. I'll believe in Trump's chances after the results from South Carolina start coming in.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:35
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Xenophon posted:it'll be the winner of The Presidential Apprentice I dont think this comment is getting enough love
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Aug 25, 2015 17:39
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