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FAUXTON posted:Is Heitkamp more like Bernie in the sense that she's a progressive (plains progressive is a term, which is why ND has a state-owned bank) but is averse to gun responsibility legislation? Or is she more like Joe Manchin where she caucuses with the party but toes the line with regard to energy interests that are heaping money into her state economy? I haven't kept up on her career but I do recall her having some kind of disagreement regarding guns after Sandy Hook or Aurora or one of the other mass shootings. She's pretty liberal for the Dakotas, but is less liberal than Byron Dorgan was. She's pretty much in the mold of plains progressive with anti-gun control views.
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Aug 25, 2015 15:40
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Franco Potente posted:North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) says he won't be running for re-election. Roll Call speculates that Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) might go for the open seat. I imagine, were that the case, that seat would flip red in a heartbeat. The ND legislature conveniently passed a law requiring a special election to fill a Senate vacancy. Heitkamp's seat isn't up until 2018. Prior to this law's passage, she could have run for governor, won, and appointed her own replacement. The state's GOP basically passed the law to guard specifically against that possibility. An off-year election in North Dakota - you are correct, the seat would undoubtedly go red.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:01
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Considering the number of D governorships being historically low right now, it might be a good idea for the party. The Senate won't swing on that seat. Either it's a wave and they pick up 5+ seats, or it isn't and they gain maybe a couple but not enough regardless. That seat would be up again in a midterm and if a D is still President, it'll be tough for anyone.
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Aug 25, 2015 16:48
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Yeah I was wondering what the DNC's preference would be on that. Steve Bullock has already made some noises in his capacity as DGA chair indicating that he would strongly support a Heitkamp run. How popular is McCrory? NC seems like the only other plausible site for a Democratic governor pickup. Mike Pence is pretty unpopular but...it's Indiana. Evan Bayh might win if he entered, I don't think he will though.
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Aug 25, 2015 17:38
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Evan Bayh is the worst. I hope he never holds office again.
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Aug 25, 2015 18:00
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He was a terrible senator but to be fair he was representing a terrible state.
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Aug 25, 2015 18:20
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GalacticAcid posted:He was a terrible senator but to be fair he was representing a terrible state. Joe Donnelly has managed to be inoffensive. He's pro-life, but he supports planned parenthood and other than Obamacare (he was in the house at the time) his pro-life position hasn't made a huge difference in any key votes. Bayh went out of his way to make cutting entitlements and bipartisanship his signature issues. He was more like a Manchin. Donnelly, Heitkamp, etc are all fine with me even if they aren't 100% perfect because they don't go out of their way to support unpopular and terrible policies.
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Aug 25, 2015 18:35
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GalacticAcid posted:Yeah I was wondering what the DNC's preference would be on that. Steve Bullock has already made some noises in his capacity as DGA chair indicating that he would strongly support a Heitkamp run. McCrory's numbers are in vulnerable territory but if it's anything like 2008 and 2012, the Gubernatorial results will track with the Presidential results since the GOP has done such a good job of nurturing a persecution complex despite controlling basically every level of Government. Budget issues? Probably because there's still a Democratic nominee on the State Board of Education! It'll depend on whether or not non-urban parts of the state decide McCrory is as much of a waste of space as he's proven, or if they believe the constant GOP line of WELL THEY GOT 100 YEARS SO NOW WE SHOULD GET 100 YEARS TO BE FAIR (even though we definitely had multiple GOP governors, ran the House for a period in the 90s and early aughts, and Jesse loving Helms. Oh, and the Dems were all racist conservatives until 1964). De Nomolos has issued a correction as of 21:58 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 21:45
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De Nomolos posted:The Senate won't swing on that seat. I wouldn't be so sure of that.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:52
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Joementum posted:I wouldn't be so sure of that. Agreed. It could easily come down to one seat.
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Aug 25, 2015 21:53
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Joementum posted:I wouldn't be so sure of that. They need to gain exactly 4 to get that scenario, right? What are the odds that, assuming they keep Reid's seat, they pick up (going by the most obvious ones here) WI, IL, but only get 2 of 3 between OH, PA, and NH? Can any of those 3 really outrun national trends that well? Neither is particularly entrenched...though I guess you could say Toomey might have a good chance since the PA candidate is so suboptimal, but will they really be able to divorce that race from national trends, especially considering that it's probably the bluest of those states? Not to mention, in a Dem win for the Presidency (the only scenario where they gain more than 2 likely), there are good odds they'd get the open FL seat as well. De Nomolos has issued a correction as of 22:14 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 22:03
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Four if Hillary wins, five if she doesn't (or five and six, respectively, if they lose the ND seat). And there's still no Democratic candidate in NH with a clusterfuck going on in the PA primary.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:07
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De Nomolos posted:They need to gain exactly 4 to get that scenario, right? What are the odds that, assuming they keep Reid's seat, they pick up (going by the most obvious ones here) WI, IL, but only get 2 of 3 between OH, PA, and NH? Can any of those 3 really outrun national trends that well? Neither is particularly entrenched...though I guess you could say Toomey might have a good chance since the PA candidate is so suboptimal, but will they really be able to divorce that race from national trends, especially considering that it's probably the bluest of those states? Florida is still up for grabs, so until the Florida Democrats nominate Alex Sink it's probably a better shot than at least NH. 2 out of 4 isn't too bad.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:08
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Joementum posted:Four if Hillary wins, five if she doesn't (or five and six, respectively, if they lose the ND seat). I'm assuming Hassan gets in like everyone else does. And even if PA falls apart, FL is good odds in any Dem Presidential win. A wave and you probably get them all, because Toomey ain't that cool. De Nomolos has issued a correction as of 22:20 on Aug 25, 2015 |
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Aug 25, 2015 22:15
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De Nomolos posted:They need to gain exactly 4 to get that scenario, right? What are the odds that, assuming they keep Reid's seat, they pick up (going by the most obvious ones here) WI, IL, but only get 2 of 3 between OH, PA, and NH? Can any of those 3 really outrun national trends that well? The Democrats have an excellent candidate in Ohio (its the only reason the race is even on the list,) have good candidates in Florida (either Graham or Murphy could win statewide) and might even end up favored in NH if Hassan jumps in. Beyond that, if 2016 follows 2012 then the national trend would be a strong, though not really wave-like, Democratic performance. I could see the Democrats sweeping those seven competitive seats. On the other hand its hard for me to see the Republicans holding onto all of theirs even if they do get a presidential win.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:19
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Cliff Racer posted:The Democrats have an excellent candidate in Ohio (its the only reason the race is even on the list,) have good candidates in Florida (either Graham or Murphy could win statewide) and might even end up favored in NH if Hassan jumps in. Beyond that, if 2016 follows 2012 then the national trend would be a strong, though not really wave-like, Democratic performance. I could see the Democrats sweeping those seven competitive seats. On the other hand its hard for me to see the Republicans holding onto all of theirs even if they do get a presidential win. I'm not as optimistic. OH/IL/WI look fine, but we have problems in FL, NH, and PA. Hassan is not polling as well as hoped against Ayotte. FL and PA are shitshows that may put up hopeless candidates.
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Aug 25, 2015 22:22
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Concerned Citizen posted:I'm not as optimistic. OH/IL/WI look fine, but we have problems in FL, NH, and PA. Hassan is not polling as well as hoped against Ayotte. FL and PA are shitshows that may put up hopeless candidates. Hey, I have no problem at all blaming Alan Grayson for ruining everything and hopefully getting him run out of politics forever.
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Aug 25, 2015 23:17
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De Nomolos posted:Hey, I have no problem at all blaming Alan Grayson for ruining everything and hopefully getting him run out of politics forever. Alan Grayson and Alex Sink are basically the weirdo cave children that stumbled out of the FLDP. It doesn't help that the FLDP is run by people who probably voted for Jackson.
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Aug 26, 2015 03:16
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FAUXTON posted:Alan Grayson and Alex Sink are basically the weirdo cave children that stumbled out of the FLDP. It doesn't help that the FLDP is run by people who probably voted for Jackson. Alex Sink is the only Democrat to win a statewide office in Florida since 2000 not named Bill Nelson.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:30
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Concerned Citizen posted:Alex Sink is the only Democrat to win a statewide office in Florida since 2000 not named Bill Nelson. That doesn't really change the truth of what I said. How many different times/ways has Sink lost?
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Aug 26, 2015 06:27
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FAUXTON posted:Alan Grayson and Alex Sink are basically the weirdo cave children that stumbled out of the FLDP. It doesn't help that the FLDP is run by people who probably voted for Jackson. Disagree. Grayson is what happens when the party actively shits on anyone hinting at a glance to the left: at some point only the crass, vulgar, and socially inept remain to hold the standard. Sink is a perfect example of what conservative Democrats think of as an ideal candidate, and are so stupid they think her losses mean everyone should double-down and conservative harder. She's about as Establishment Democrat as it gets.
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Aug 26, 2015 06:45
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Feather posted:Disagree. Grayson is what happens when the party actively shits on anyone hinting at a glance to the left: at some point only the crass, vulgar, and socially inept remain to hold the standard. Sink is a perfect example of what conservative Democrats think of as an ideal candidate, and are so stupid they think her losses mean everyone should double-down and conservative harder. She's about as Establishment Democrat as it gets. And they still can't get her elected in Pinellas. Pinellas.
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Aug 26, 2015 06:51
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FAUXTON posted:And they still can't get her elected in Pinellas. I know. One of the many reasons I'm glad I no longer live in Florida is the deplorable Party. I'd feel bad, but in many ways people kind of brought it on themselves.
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Aug 26, 2015 06:53
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Feather posted:I know. One of the many reasons I'm glad I no longer live in Florida is the deplorable Party. I'd feel bad, but in many ways people kind of brought it on themselves. Yeah, I've been away from the state since 2007 and just watching it collapse from the oh-so-luxurious perch of Omaha. It's amazing how inept the FL Dems are but as you say, they brought it on themselves. Maybe they'll realize that when there's an oil rig on their favorite bocce ball turf and a refinery pipeline on their shuffleboard court, but I highly doubt they'd take tutelage from the surprisingly successful labor activists down in SWFL even then.
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Aug 26, 2015 07:00
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hey guys exclamation marx made a hillary gangtag get in on ground floor of hillary crew e: wrong thread. still Homura and Sickle has issued a correction as of 09:28 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 09:22
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Jagchosis posted:hey guys exclamation marx made a hillary gangtag get in on ground floor of hillary crew Lol, the Hill has Lies. That's great.
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Aug 26, 2015 11:28
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GalacticAcid posted:How popular is McCrory? NC seems like the only other plausible site for a Democratic governor pickup. Mike Pence is pretty unpopular but...it's Indiana. Evan Bayh might win if he entered, I don't think he will though. Fairly vulnerable, plus there's basically one guy running against him, the current 4 term AG, who the state Dems are putting all their money behind, so I wouldn't count on Burr's senate seat being a pickup next year. Especially if Heath Shuler  is the nominee.
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Aug 26, 2015 11:52
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FAUXTON posted:That doesn't really change the truth of what I said. How many different times/ways has Sink lost? Twice. She lost a gubernatorial bid very narrowly in a wave election (by a margin less than progressive hero Russ Feingold) and unexpectedly lost in a low turnout special election for Congress. She was a decent candidate. People going back to poo poo on her forget she's the only Democrat that has had so much as a modicum of success, and she was quite close to winning twice but was only a bit unlucky due to forces beyond her control. By Florida Democrat standards, that's a goddamn miracle.
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Aug 26, 2015 13:02
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I have to remind people nationally how bad our state party is when they claim that the Dems have a decent chance of picking up Rubio's seat.
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Aug 26, 2015 14:47
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FlamingLiberal posted:I have to remind people nationally how bad our state party is when they claim that the Dems have a decent chance of picking up Rubio's seat. To be fair, the Republicans so far have a bunch of total scrubs too and it's a Presidential election. FL Dems will find a way to loose, but it's probably some of the best odds of winning they've had in quite a while.
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Aug 26, 2015 15:06
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Concerned Citizen posted:Twice. She lost a gubernatorial bid very narrowly in a wave election (by a margin less than progressive hero Russ Feingold) and unexpectedly lost in a low turnout special election for Congress. She lost the gubernatorial race because: a) she apparently didn't think it was necessary to actually, y'know, campaign and b) thought that presenting a "moderate, but still conservative democrat" compared to Scott's teaparty nuttery would allow her to ride that wave. She practically threw the race for governor; if it were a law she'd be guilty of criminal negligence. The argument that she's the best the FL Dems have is just evidence that FL Dems are terrible, not that they're even merely "okay" but just terribly unlucky.
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Aug 26, 2015 15:12
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Feather posted:She lost the gubernatorial race because: a) she apparently didn't think it was necessary to actually, y'know, campaign and b) thought that presenting a "moderate, but still conservative democrat" compared to Scott's teaparty nuttery would allow her to ride that wave. She practically threw the race for governor; if it were a law she'd be guilty of criminal negligence. The argument that she's the best the FL Dems have is just evidence that FL Dems are terrible, not that they're even merely "okay" but just terribly unlucky. She lost by 1%. Many other Democrats in much bluer states than FL lost by more, even though she was outspent 2-to-1 by Rick Scott's self-funding. Saying she "threw the race" is just Monday morning quarterbacking.
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Aug 26, 2015 15:40
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Feather posted:She lost the gubernatorial race because: a) she apparently didn't think it was necessary to actually, y'know, campaign Question: Have Alex Sink and Martha Coakley ever been seen in the same room together?
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Aug 26, 2015 16:37
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Concerned Citizen posted:She lost by 1%. Many other Democrats in much bluer states than FL lost by more, even though she was outspent 2-to-1 by Rick Scott's self-funding. Saying she "threw the race" is just Monday morning quarterbacking. She really didn't do as much as she could have. She seemed pretty comfortable relying on the fact that Rick Scott looks like any number of fictional villains and is a repugnant entity. Which, in all fairness, was a strategy that did only fail by about 61 thousand votes. Unless she just stayed away from North East Florida, writing the whole region off as foregone Republican.
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Aug 26, 2015 17:52
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Concerned Citizen posted:She lost by 1%. Many other Democrats in much bluer states than FL lost by more, even though she was outspent 2-to-1 by Rick Scott's self-funding. Saying she "threw the race" is just Monday morning quarterbacking. Right, but then she lost in Pinellas, which had gone D in the past few presidential elections but kept Bill Young primarily due to incumbency. She lost to some empty suit from Georgia who is basically GOP-Platform.txt with an edit to the positions on the debt ceiling and marriage. Old or not, that district should have been a pickup on trends alone but the FLDP failed in GOTV as usual in no small part to their hawking Alex Sink as Candidate for Yet Another Race. The party's organization is a goddamn wreck, which is why Sink is at the head of their bench. They ought to just be taken over by the forces behind the CIW and go full-on labor activism to take advantage of the state's massive service industry underclass who never gets any attention from anyone except isolated local candidates. Any org that gets loving Taco Bell to bump their tomato prices by force of labor activism has their poo poo in line.
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Aug 26, 2015 18:11
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FAUXTON posted:Right, but then she lost in Pinellas, which had gone D in the past few presidential elections but kept Bill Young primarily due to incumbency. She lost to some empty suit from Georgia who is basically GOP-Platform.txt with an edit to the positions on the debt ceiling and marriage. Old or not, that district should have been a pickup on trends alone but the FLDP failed in GOTV as usual in no small part to their hawking Alex Sink as Candidate for Yet Another Race. The party's organization is a goddamn wreck, which is why Sink is at the head of their bench. They ought to just be taken over by the forces behind the CIW and go full-on labor activism to take advantage of the state's massive service industry underclass who never gets any attention from anyone except isolated local candidates. Any org that gets loving Taco Bell to bump their tomato prices by force of labor activism has their poo poo in line. That district is R+1. Obama won it with 50.7% of the vote in 2012. Alex sink ran about 4 points behind him in a special election. That's a normal drop-off, and any Democrat would have had difficulty taking it in that environment. And they spent a ton of money on their GOTV program (which was funded by DCCC and run by OFA-FL veterans) - it's just the typical issue that special elections tend to favor the GOP as they have a larger contingent of older, more reliable voters. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 18:45 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 18:20
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Disinter Claude Pepper and endorse him.
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Aug 26, 2015 21:52
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GalacticAcid posted:Disinter Claude Pepper and endorse him. I can't vote for a sexagenarian who practices celibacy! Fritz Coldcockin has issued a correction as of 21:58 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 21:53
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Concerned Citizen posted:Alex Sink is the only Democrat to win a statewide office in Florida since 2000 not named Bill Nelson. Thats not true. Charlie Crist did too!
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Aug 27, 2015 12:18
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GalacticAcid posted:Disinter Claude Pepper and endorse him. If the dead can vote in Florida, they should be able to run for office.
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Aug 27, 2015 15:14
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