Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Reik: Mar 8, 2004

Cpt. Mahatma Gandhi posted:

haha same. Had all my poo poo saved on my work computer (RIP my productivity), which I then so intelligently left at work on Friday.

The only thing I had memorized from the sheets was Charlie Sims' value of 1,000,000

EDIT: Dropbox started working. Charlie Sims must've seen my praise and rewarded me thusly.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 16:32

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 00:34

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

If I take Andrew Luck 1.2 in my startup 4 keeper league, just how dumb am I? I really can't talk myself out of it. He won't be there at the end of the 2nd, and it isn't value, but I just want to do it, just like the guy that took Watt in the 1st round. Oh well. 6PTD 1PPR.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:18

Rick Grimes: Oct 12, 2005; We Are The Walking Dead

Main league draft coming up in 4 hours, need to pick my keeper option. Can keep a player drafted from round 9 on for up to 2 years, by giving up the previous round draft pick.

My options are:
Martellus Bennett - 11
Percy Harvin - 13 (heavy pass)
Ben Roethlisberger - 17

Leaning heavy towards keeping Ben for my 2nd last round pick, but is Bennett the better option here? Or am I just overthinking this?

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:20

Reik: Mar 8, 2004

Michael Corleone posted:

If I take Andrew Luck 1.2 in my startup 4 keeper league, just how dumb am I? I really can't talk myself out of it. He won't be there at the end of the 2nd, and it isn't value, but I just want to do it, just like the guy that took Watt in the 1st round. Oh well. 6PTD 1PPR.

With 6PTD I think luck is like 4-5th overall, taking him second isn't that dumb.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:20

Hot Diggity!: Apr 3, 2010; SKELITON_BRINGING_U_ON.GIF

Rick Grimes posted:

Main league draft coming up in 4 hours, need to pick my keeper option. Can keep a player drafted from round 9 on for up to 2 years, by giving up the previous round draft pick.

My options are:
Martellus Bennett - 11
Percy Harvin - 13 (heavy pass)
Ben Roethlisberger - 17

Leaning heavy towards keeping Ben for my 2nd last round pick, but is Bennett the better option here? Or am I just overthinking this?

i'd go with ben. bennett should be productive for chicago, but it's also chicago and they're a tire fire.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:22

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

Reik posted:

With 6PTD I think luck is like 4-5th overall, taking him second isn't that dumb.

Done. That is why I can't really trade down because I figure someone will take him, 6 is available, but I am just going to do it and be set. Thanks!

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:23

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

God I don't want to even think about how many Reddit PMs I have about DB being down.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:25

Zombie Tsunami: Jun 22, 2006

What sort of volume do you get in terms of PMs normally? Honest question.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:44

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

Good question. Volume is key in any PM fantasy league!

# ? Aug 30, 2015 17:50

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

My completely arbitrary scoring keeper auction IDP league is tonight.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 18:02

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Zombie Tsunami posted:

What sort of volume do you get in terms of PMs normally? Honest question.

50 per day at peak. The custom request older is around 5000 lines long.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 18:05

Cigar Aficionado: Nov 1, 2004; "Patel"? Fuck you.

EDIT: My bad!

Cigar Aficionado fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Aug 30, 2015

# ? Aug 30, 2015 18:27

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Nope. You're in the wrong thread.

Beer got some #famouspeopleproblems. You do goons proud my man. :3

# ? Aug 30, 2015 18:38

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

We have a thread for rating teams http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3736579

# ? Aug 30, 2015 19:49

Zombie Tsunami: Jun 22, 2006

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

50 per day at peak. The custom request older is around 5000 lines long.

If any post is deserving of a :captainpop:

this is it. I commend you on doing all of this for free.

Cigar Aficionado posted:

EDIT: My bad!

Yeah gently caress you, guy!

# ? Aug 30, 2015 20:35

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Fear not friends:

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:06

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

Please play week 1 cobb I already have bell missing the first 2 weeks

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:08

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

Thoughts on this trade offer:

Give: Andre Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Bishop Sankey

Get: Mike Evans

Trade is to the Murray owner - Evans would be my WR2 and I have plenty of RB and WR depth to make this happen. Sankey is my 5th RB, and Mathews was a high upside lotto pick I bought late in the draft. Cobb is my WR1, so I like the idea of bringing in another heavy hitter to help out if he misses extensive time.

Edit: .5 PPR

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:09

Aggro: Apr 24, 2003; STRONG as an OX and TWICE as SMART

Type I and II AC joint injuries (sprains) usually recover within 3-6 weeks. Week 1 is pretty unlikely, but so is missing an excessive amount of time.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:10

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

By my advanced stat projections, Brandin Cooks will get about 25,326 targets this year

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:15

Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Benne posted:

By my advanced stat projections, Brandin Cooks will get about 25,326 targets this year

Sounds legit.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:16

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

Y'all DeAndre Hopkins is gonna own no matter who's throwing him the ball

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:29

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

Get: Kyle Rudolph TE MIN, Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN, Justin Forsett RB BAL
Give: Travis Kelce TE KC

What do you guys think? I'd be stuck with like I have Josh Hill and Jace Amaro at TE, and probably need to drop Hill to receive the three players (have one bench slot and wouldn't need to drop anyone if GB would just get off their lazy asses and IR Jordy).

But I'm down Jordy. Starting AJ Green, Charles Johnson, Golden Tate as my top 3 WR. Have Forte, Abdullah, Sankey, and Vereen at RB.

.5 PPR, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex, no special scoring for TEs.

Seems like it's pretty good value for Kelce

edit: This is Dynasty

Azhais fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Aug 30, 2015

# ? Aug 30, 2015 21:59

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Cervixalot posted:

Thoughts on this trade offer:

Give: Andre Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Bishop Sankey

Get: Mike Evans

Trade is to the Murray owner - Evans would be my WR2 and I have plenty of RB and WR depth to make this happen. Sankey is my 5th RB, and Mathews was a high upside lotto pick I bought late in the draft. Cobb is my WR1, so I like the idea of bringing in another heavy hitter to help out if he misses extensive time.

Edit: .5 PPR

He is trying to fleece you. On my sheets I don't have AJ80 and Evans separated by a huge gulf (7-9 spots), and I believe that AJ80 + Mathews offers more value on paper than Evans. Take Sankey out of the picture and I can see that trade happening.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 22:09

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Azhais posted:

Get: Kyle Rudolph TE MIN, Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN, Justin Forsett RB BAL
Give: Travis Kelce TE KC

Dynasty I probably would not.

It's a no brainer in redraft, but Sanders and Forsett are gonna suck within two years in dynasty. I'd only take that trade if I was a significant title contender. In other words, you're correct that it's close to a fair offer, but I think you're not the right team to take it.

Spend the open slot on Langford or Zenner instead.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 22:16

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Azhais posted:

Get: Kyle Rudolph TE MIN, Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN, Justin Forsett RB BAL
Give: Travis Kelce TE KC

What do you guys think? I'd be stuck with like I have Josh Hill and Jace Amaro at TE, and probably need to drop Hill to receive the three players (have one bench slot and wouldn't need to drop anyone if GB would just get off their lazy asses and IR Jordy).

But I'm down Jordy. Starting AJ Green, Charles Johnson, Golden Tate as my top 3 WR. Have Forte, Abdullah, Sankey, and Vereen at RB.

.5 PPR, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex, no special scoring for TEs.

Seems like it's pretty good value for Kelce

edit: This is Dynasty

Basically what this does it enhance your ability to win at the WR2 and RB2 positions for this year, while hamstringing your TE situation this and future years. On paper it's a good trade, I'm curious what is his RB and WR situation that he's able to give up a WR2 and an RB1.5 for a guy who admittedly is a physical freak but is not being utilized fully.

If Abdullah becomes Abdullah though, you may not have need of Forsett and would have a conundrum at the flex position. I think you should stand pat.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 22:19

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Benne posted:

Y'all DeAndre Hopkins is gonna own no matter who's throwing him the ball

I'm not insanely crazy about Connor Cook or Jared Goff just yet but next year Hopkin's ADP should be through the roof if he has either one of those guys throwing him the rock.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 22:22

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

Suave Fedora posted:

I'm curious what is his RB and WR situation that he's able to give up a WR2 and an RB1.5 for a guy who admittedly is a physical freak but is not being utilized fully.

He's basically rebuilding. he's got Forsett, Morris, Ellington, Ajayi, Zenner at RB and Sanders, Watkins, Adams, Lafell, Colston, Patterson, Bowe, Cooper, Coates at WR (and everyone old on that list is on the block)

# ? Aug 30, 2015 22:25

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

Forever_Peace posted:

Dynasty I probably would not.

Spend the open slot on Langford or Zenner instead.

Langford and Zenner were both drafted and rostered. I'm in 8 dynasty leagues and I don't know one of them were either of those guys are still available. I'd love to have Langford what with me having Forte, but it was not to be.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 22:26

so edgy i cut YOU BITCH: Apr 7, 2006; Grimey Drawer

Is anyone looking for a league member for a draft tonight? I have the rest of the night free and would love to get in another league, preferably a money league but either is fine.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 22:40

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Azhais posted:

Langford and Zenner were both drafted and rostered. I'm in 8 dynasty leagues and I don't know one of them were either of those guys are still available. I'd love to have Langford what with me having Forte, but it was not to be.

C'est la vie. Langford was going mid-30s in rookie drafts and Zenner mid-40s (if he was drafted at all), figured I'd mention them in case they were there because there are certainly leagues where they slipped through (because you have Forte and because Zenner could be pretty good).

In other news, some quick thoughts on the first half of HOU/NO:
- This game was real boring ya'll.
- I was too high on Polk. I know the Texans have been after him for years, and I liked him in PHI, but he is clearly buried in the depth chart and did not look good. Blue got every-down reps with the starters and looked solid doing it, and proved last year he can carry volume for a few games while Foster recovers. Grimes actually got the second look, and looked slightly above JAG-level. Polk was the third to come in, looked no better than Grimes in his runs, and most importantly, behaved as if both his quarterbacks were speaking exclusively in pig latin. He didn't know what the gently caress was going on and had trouble even when given specific instructions. Oh well.
- Nuke owns. Don't care who the quarterbacks are.
- Second-year TE CJ Fiedorowicz was surprisingly an every-down starter with the first team. Usually started in-line, and ran a lot of decent-looking routes. Having caught four (4) passes total last season, he's still got a lot of ground to cover before being redraft relevant, but he's still a dynasty guy to monitor. A red zone bullet to Griffin with the 2nd team lends a bit of credence to all the lip service they've been paying to getting the TEs more involved.
- Ingram got huge volume, but I don't think that will be representative. Spiller is still recovering from the knee scope and should be back week 1. With Khiry out with an undisclosed injury, Hightower got second-team snaps and looked pretty good for a dude who hasn't played a down since 2011. This probably says more about the Texans second-stringers than Hightower, naturally.
- I'm sad Wilfork isn't a patriot any more.

I dunno I'm all out here this game was not pretty to watch.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:02

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

Dress rehearsal game my rear end. Basically 1 series for Brees/Cooks/Ingram.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:15

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Benne posted:

Y'all DeAndre Hopkins is gonna own no matter who's throwing him the ball

Agreed, my MFL10 portfolio has high shares of him, Doug Martin, and Darren Sproles. Hoping for some good things this year.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:16

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

Loving your game notes Forever; good work

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:18

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

PyroDwarf posted:

I looked at the difference in overall points and points per game in a standard scoring league and in my "special" league for the top 12 players in each position. Tight end number in parenthesis is position 2-12, because Gronk.
pre:
Position     Overall STD     Overall Special     PPG STD     PPG Special

 QB              88                 232           5.5           14.5
 RB              123                307           7.7           19
 WR              84                 198           5.3           12.4
 TE              94(64)             129(80)       5.8(4)        8.1(5)
 D/ST            56                 147           3.5           9.2
 K               36                 47            2.2           3 
So, looking at this it seems that RB is still the way to go but QB take a pretty big leap in importance as well. D/ST should be fixed this year, last year commish had it set to 1 point per tackle. Eagles were the top D/ST with 1601 points at the end of the season.

Any advice? (Aside from sever)

There's something seriously wrong with your points calcs here. There's no way the average top-12 QB only makes 5.5 points per game in standard, for example, or the average top-12 WR only makes 5.3, etc.

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:33

fariz: Nov 10, 2009; You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.

Got offered gronk and Wayne (who i don't really care about) for Jeffery and Andre Johnson in my a .5 ppr league. I want to mash accept, but my wr situation woyld be pretty blah

Before trade i have
Ryan / Bradford
AP / Forsett / Blount / Coleman
Megatron / Jeffery / Andre / Landry / Cooks / White
Eifert

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:43

365 Nog Hogger: Jan 19, 2008; by Shine

Tron/Cooks/Landry hardly seems blah to me, I'd mash

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:48

so edgy i cut YOU BITCH: Apr 7, 2006; Grimey Drawer

fariz posted:

Got offered gronk and Wayne (who i don't really care about) for Jeffery and Andre Johnson in my a .5 ppr league. I want to mash accept, but my wr situation woyld be pretty blah

Before trade i have
Ryan / Bradford
AP / Forsett / Blount / Coleman
Megatron / Jeffery / Andre / Landry / Cooks / White
Eifert

I think Cooks is just fine as a WR2, and Landry is a good WR3 if you need him. I'd mash.

edit: ^^ what he said

# ? Aug 30, 2015 23:49

nrr: Jan 2, 2007

Got my draft in a couple of hours for 8 team, 1PPR 6PTD 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1WR/RB, 2WR/RB/TE league, and I've got the #1 pick.

Who do I take? Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Demaryius Thomas, or Aaron Rodgers?

Beer sheets have got Rodgers rated highest at 8.8 value, with Demaryius next, but it's a keeper league and I've got a QB keeper and 3 WRs as keepers, so I need RBs most. Obviously leaning more towards ADP or Charles, but not entirely sure yet. plaaease halp, goons.

#1 pick in a snake league means I won't be picking forever after this, and with 32 keeps already off the board, there'll be another 15 gone by the time I get to make another pick. That's 47 players gone - I really don't want to gently caress up that first pick.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 00:22

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 00:34

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

A A ron imo

# ? Aug 31, 2015 00:28

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