Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Getimmaaw posted:

I just received a trade offer. Ill be trading away jordan matthews and keenan allen, and ill be getting Randall cobb and terrance williams. Should i take this trade?

How comfortable are you with Cobb's injury?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 03:44

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 20:55

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

I wouldn't accept

# ? Aug 31, 2015 03:48

Miko: May 20, 2001; Where I come from, there's no such thing as kryptonite.

Allen and Matthews are PPR studs, so that's a big factor.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 03:51

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Drafted 14th in my $175 league. Everyone ran on WRs early on which I wasn't expecting. Ended up with this roster:

1. Matt Forte
2. Randall Cobb
3. Jarvis Landry
4. Amari Cooper
5. Peyton Manning
6. Julius Thomas
7. Bishop Sankey
8. Seattle Defense
9. Tevin Coleman
10. Breshad Perriman
11. Chris Polk
12. Brandon Coleman
13. Jonas Gray
14. Dwayne Bowe
15. Kicker

I'm not thrilled about it but so many people had bad drafts that I'm not feeling that bad.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 03:56

Getimmaaw: Dec 22, 2006

Silly Burrito posted:

How comfortable are you with Cobb's injury?

Day to day.. got ty hilton, but then i drop to pierre garcone and terrance williams. We are not a ppr league.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 04:00

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Someone just paid 28 dollars for Russell Wilson when he already had Matt Ryan. I think everyone should draft in a strong league and an idiot league. It makes the season more fun.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 04:09

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Getimmaaw posted:

I just received a trade offer. Ill be trading away jordan matthews and keenan allen, and ill be getting Randall cobb and terrance williams. Should i take this trade?

I would not.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 04:11

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Some thoughts on OAK/ARI (again, just notes from the first half with the starters):

- Kalil Mack is a goddamned monster. He pulled a spin move today that was so devastating, I reflexively shot out of my chair and shouted at my television. In the just half I watched him play he stacked up two sacks, a forced fumble, a couple of run stuffs and like a million pressures. I'm tempted to say that OAK could be a viable streaming option this year against any team with a vulnerable LT almost exclusively because Kalil is going to reduce some linemen to sniveling lumps this year.
- Amari Cooper is the real deal. His route running is the best I've seen from anybody this weekend. I also loved his reaction to loosing a ball in the sun on back-to-back plays: he got pissed, got focused, and then made a string of great catches running with a chip on his shoulder.
- Not touching Crabtree this year. Nice to see Streater back - hope he finds his groove again.
- TRich is still real bad. He should be cut imo. Contract makes it easy.
- LMurray was getting nothing handed to him today. Didn't actually count, but it felt like the majority of his carries involved first contact significantly behind the line of scrimmage. The O-line has the potential to be better this year, but LMurray better hope they start to gel fast or else he is gonna get hit a lot. Feeling a little concerned about my shares. HOWEVER, there was some positives too. He looked durable and capable of banging between the tackles, and there was one play where he flashed that open-field running ability that makes him a home-run threat.
- Surprised and disappointed at the low usage of Helu. I'm hoping they wanted to take a longer look at TRich and/or see how LMurray fared as a three-down back. I think Helu and Reece could be great assets to the team if used effectively, which in turn could open up more efficient carries for LMurray.
- John Brown played like a vet. I loved seeing him slap away hands during his routes, and the little dude went up and really fought for his big catch along the sideline. His ceiling is pretty darned low for as long as the O-Line continues to be that porous, however. Targets to Brown need a bit of time to develop if they're gonna be effective.
- JJ Nelson was a comedy of errors and should be deeply embarrassed by his performance.
- Palmer2Fitz: still a thing. Most of his looks came early, in the more serious portions of the "dress rehearsal", before they started trying out the depth against against reasonable defensive opposition. They still have awesome chemistry and Fitz still shrugs off tackles like he's allergic to failure. They were responsible for a dumb tipped interception though, but that was more Kalil Mack's doing than anything (have I mentioned that Kalil Mack is a monster?).
- Ellington was a mixed bag. Just couldn't break tackles today like I expect him to, and he looked shaky catching the ball on one of his receptions, but he made a couple of really pretty, decisive cuts that indicate his vision as a runner is still just fine. I sound like a broken record here, but if his line clicks enough to open some holes, he could have a good year (especially in ppr). But if he keeps taking hits at or behind the line, he's gonna have problems (and probably also injuries).

Probably the end of my game notes now. I'll go back to doing my usual FA pickup lists once the season starts.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 04:32

cheese: Jan 7, 2004; Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

kiimo posted:

Thanks guys. It's looking solid so far.

L. Bell $50
A. Peterson $55
O. Beckham $44

Time to chill for a bit and get Ben Roethlisberger cheap.

I love me a Studs and Duds auction draft strategy. I haven't done much auction drafting but it seems to be a very viable way to go.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 05:11

weekly font: Dec 1, 2004; Everytime I try to fly I fall
Without my wings
I feel so small
Guess I need you baby...

I'm doing my first auction draft ever on Thursday. I'm the only person in my friend's league who is not centered out of Boston so I just plan on nominating every Patriot early and trying to suck what dollars I can out of their homer asses.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 06:18

PyroDwarf: Aug 24, 2010

Leperflesh posted:

There's something seriously wrong with your points calcs here. There's no way the average top-12 QB only makes 5.5 points per game in standard, for example, or the average top-12 WR only makes 5.3, etc.

5.5 is the difference between QB1 (21.4 PPG) and QB12 (15.9 PPG). I was doing it to see the expected separation among the top 12 per position.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 08:27

89: Feb 24, 2006; #worldchamps

I loaded up on QBs and probably grabbed too many. Got Brady/Stafford/Bradford. My WRs are AJ Green, Andre Johnson, and Charles Johnson. John Brown is on the waivers. Drop Stafford for him?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 11:56

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Getimmaaw posted:

I just received a trade offer. Ill be trading away jordan matthews and keenan allen, and ill be getting Randall cobb and terrance williams. Should i take this trade?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 12:35

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Forever_Peace posted:

Some thoughts on OAK/ARI (again, just notes from the first half with the starters):

- Kalil Mack is a goddamned monster. He pulled a spin move today that was so devastating, I reflexively shot out of my chair and shouted at my television. In the just half I watched him play he stacked up two sacks, a forced fumble, a couple of run stuffs and like a million pressures. I'm tempted to say that OAK could be a viable streaming option this year against any team with a vulnerable LT almost exclusively because Kalil is going to reduce some linemen to sniveling lumps this year.
- Amari Cooper is the real deal. His route running is the best I've seen from anybody this weekend. I also loved his reaction to loosing a ball in the sun on back-to-back plays: he got pissed, got focused, and then made a string of great catches running with a chip on his shoulder.
- Not touching Crabtree this year. Nice to see Streater back - hope he finds his groove again.
- TRich is still real bad. He should be cut imo. Contract makes it easy.
- LMurray was getting nothing handed to him today. Didn't actually count, but it felt like the majority of his carries involved first contact significantly behind the line of scrimmage. The O-line has the potential to be better this year, but LMurray better hope they start to gel fast or else he is gonna get hit a lot. Feeling a little concerned about my shares. HOWEVER, there was some positives too. He looked durable and capable of banging between the tackles, and there was one play where he flashed that open-field running ability that makes him a home-run threat.
- Surprised and disappointed at the low usage of Helu. I'm hoping they wanted to take a longer look at TRich and/or see how LMurray fared as a three-down back. I think Helu and Reece could be great assets to the team if used effectively, which in turn could open up more efficient carries for LMurray.
- John Brown played like a vet. I loved seeing him slap away hands during his routes, and the little dude went up and really fought for his big catch along the sideline. His ceiling is pretty darned low for as long as the O-Line continues to be that porous, however. Targets to Brown need a bit of time to develop if they're gonna be effective.
- JJ Nelson was a comedy of errors and should be deeply embarrassed by his performance.
- Palmer2Fitz: still a thing. Most of his looks came early, in the more serious portions of the "dress rehearsal", before they started trying out the depth against against reasonable defensive opposition. They still have awesome chemistry and Fitz still shrugs off tackles like he's allergic to failure. They were responsible for a dumb tipped interception though, but that was more Kalil Mack's doing than anything (have I mentioned that Kalil Mack is a monster?).
- Ellington was a mixed bag. Just couldn't break tackles today like I expect him to, and he looked shaky catching the ball on one of his receptions, but he made a couple of really pretty, decisive cuts that indicate his vision as a runner is still just fine. I sound like a broken record here, but if his line clicks enough to open some holes, he could have a good year (especially in ppr). But if he keeps taking hits at or behind the line, he's gonna have problems (and probably also injuries).

Probably the end of my game notes now. I'll go back to doing my usual FA pickup lists once the season starts.

All good notes. I think Cooper is going to be a top 2 round pick next year, easily. He looked like a grown rear end man in college and continues in the NFL.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 14:45

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

89 posted:

I loaded up on QBs and probably grabbed too many. Got Brady/Stafford/Bradford. My WRs are AJ Green, Andre Johnson, and Charles Johnson. John Brown is on the waivers. Drop Stafford for him?

Yep, easy decision.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 14:52

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

I think this is a really great year for late-round WR talent, so I've been trying to pick up my RBs a bit on the early side, but here's my priority rankings for late-round upside RBs for those instances where you go into the 10th round carrying only 3 or 4 RBs in 12-team standard. (Only showing players with ADP in the 10th or later, ppr list would be completely different)

1) Ryan Mathews. If you're high on Demarco at the top of the draft, he's a mandatory handcuff. If you think Demarco is going to be a bust or get injured, then rejoice at your good fortune: you can pick up Chip Kelly's RB1 super duper late!
2) Alfred Blue. I think Foster is going to be slower than the hype suggests, and Blue can carry the volume.
3) McFadden. Who knows - maybe the change of scenery really is all that he needed? I'm willing to spend a 10th on an outside chance to land a healthy share of the Dallas offensive line. Dunbar would be my ppr guy but he's not a banger.
4) Tre Mason. Would have been #2 if not for his injury. Gurley is going to be brought along slowly, and Tre is a good runner. The line sucks, which caps his upside, but he had some good games.
5) Ronnie Hillman. Strictly an injury play - he's not sniffing fantasy relevance unless CJA gets injured, but if he does, Ronnie is an RB1. What else are you going to do with your 12th round?
6) TWest. Think of him as a poor man's McFadden. Cheap lottery ticket for an outside chance at a healthy piece of a high-volume running game behind a good offensive line.
7) David Johnson. Could carve out a Helu-style role in this offense even if Ellington stays healthy. Good upside, had a great camp.
8) Boom Herron. Also a pure injury play. If you don't trust Gore not to get banged up, Boom is your guy (though personally I think Gore has a good year).
9) Zach Zenner. Why not swing for the goddamned fences with your last skill position pick? Should probably go undrafted in most leagues but I know some of you guys play with deep benches that make high-risk high-upside guys more valuable.
10) Matt Jones. Would be significantly higher on a better team or in dynasty/keeper leagues. I really like his talent as a runner and his position as a locked-in #2. However, in standard redraft, WAS is going to be a disaster this year and I'm trying to avoid it as much as I can.
11) Lorenzo "Zo" Taliaferro / Khiry Robinson. Take your pick. Injury fliers on two productive running games. Both have more than enough talent to make something of an opportunity should it present itself.
12) Cameron Artis-Payne. Mediocre prospect at best, but he's been making some noise in camp and is the clear backup to JStew. Worth a flier if there's nothing else around in like the 18th round.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:05

Darko: Dec 23, 2004

TubeStank posted:

rodgers just went round 1 pick 2 in the draft i'm currently in

granted everyone made fun of the guy but still

Someone picked Stafford at 6 round 1 by accident in one I attended.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:19

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Oh my god the Bills cut FJax.

That is heartless. Buffalo fans must be gutted right now, FJax owns. :smith:

... But now he can sign for the pats and be our passing-down back :unsmith:

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:28

thrawn527: Mar 27, 2004; Thrawn/Pellaeon
Studying the art of terrorists
To keep you safe

Forever_Peace posted:

Oh my god the Bills cut FJax.

That is heartless. Buffalo fans must be gutted right now, FJax owns.

... But now he can sign for the pats and be our passing-down back

It's my fault. I picked him up over the weekend as Shady's backup.

Chances he actually gets picked up and is worth stashing?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:32

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Forever_Peace posted:

Oh my god the Bills cut FJax.

That is heartless. Buffalo fans must be gutted right now, FJax owns.

... But now he can sign for the pats and be our passing-down back

Good lord, Rex, I thought you were cool

Just please don't go to the Browns.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:34

Zombie Tsunami: Jun 22, 2006

Ralph Wilson will burn this night, friends.
Took Karlos Williams in the second to last round of my rookie draft :getin:

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:37

Gearman: Dec 6, 2011

Forever_Peace posted:

Oh my god the Bills cut FJax.

That is heartless. Buffalo fans must be gutted right now, FJax owns.

... But now he can sign for the pats and be our passing-down back

Cutting FJax is one of the easiest ways to curse your team for all time! Hoping he gets picked up by the Pats, too. They could use the pass-catching and the mentorship for Blount.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:46

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

thrawn527 posted:

Chances he actually gets picked up and is worth stashing?

Eh... 2:1 against? Bradshaw and PT Cruiser have not exactly been drumming up much interest on the FA market, and play similar roles in an offense.

But on the other hand, the AFC East is Hapsburg levels of incestuous right now and I wouldn't be surprised if Belichick signed him in part to ~~troll the gently caress out of his whipping boy Rex~~ learn more about the Bills offense.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:49

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Troy Renck �@TroyRenck � 5m5 minutes ago

#broncos have just come to terms with Fred Jackson. Move surprising but welcome.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 15:56

Zombie Tsunami: Jun 22, 2006

[citation needed]

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:00

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Troy Renck �@TroyRenck � 5m5 minutes ago

#broncos have just come to terms with Fred Jackson. Move surprising but welcome.

I think that's fake - I can't find the Tweet in question, could be a case of Adarn Schefter.

Also, I own CJ Anderson in my main money league, so I won't let this be true.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:01

Reik: Mar 8, 2004

Who is the Shady McCoy handcuff now? Dixon or Brown?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:33

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

It was looking like Karlos Williams until the mystery illness. Right now :iiam:

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:36

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Let's play Where in the World is RG3?

It's very likely he stays in WAS due to money he's already due, but what would be some QB-needy teams that could use him and offer a fresh start?

I'm guessing the following would make for good team qualifiers:

- shaky/unsettled QB situation
- strong pass protect line (so he doesn't die again)
- one-read/quick-dump friendly offensive schemes
- more possession receivers than anything
- history of taking unwanted players

Dare I say that RG3 could be a Chiefs or Patriot?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:42

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Forever_Peace posted:

Oh my god the Bills cut FJax.

That is heartless. Buffalo fans must be gutted right now, FJax owns.

... But now he can sign for the pats and be our passing-down back

Rex Ryan is out of his gourd. The guy is money.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:43

Psikotik: Dec 17, 2002; Random more like ranDUMB; College Slice

Darko posted:

Someone picked Stafford at 6 round 1 by accident in one I attended.

Russ Wilson went 1st pick of the 2nd round last night in my draft. That guys team is a shitshow.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:45

Reik: Mar 8, 2004

I'm the Demarco owner in the league, I missed the Ryan Mathews handcuff but I snagged Darren Sproles. Should I attempt to trade for Ryan Mathews? If I do should I trade away Darren Sproles?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:48

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Reik posted:

I'm the Demarco owner in the league, I missed the Ryan Mathews handcuff but I snagged Darren Sproles. Should I attempt to trade for Ryan Mathews? If I do should I trade away Darren Sproles?

You won't be able to predict Sproles usage in any meaningful way at this time.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 16:53

Gearman: Dec 6, 2011

Tyrod Taylor named Bills starting QB. For 2QB leagues, he's a pretty good pickup.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 17:05

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Suave Fedora posted:

You won't be able to predict Sproles usage in any meaningful way at this time.

He'll line up in the slot sometimes and his value should be around RB3/4 levels imo, fine for depth, but if your league gives you points for return TDs then look out because he's still going to get chances there to spell Barner

# ? Aug 31, 2015 17:11

Its Miller Time: Dec 4, 2004

Recruitment for my fantasy football league is open.

It is a $50 buy in, 12 teams ESPN, 2/3/1 RB/WR/flex, 1 PPR and 6 PPPTD. The draft is Thursday 9/3 at 8:30PM PST. Winner nets a cool $500. I try and do a brief commentary every week.

Thread with leaguesafe and ESPN links: http://forums.somethingawful.com/sh...1#post449543454

# ? Aug 31, 2015 17:47

ShaneB: Oct 22, 2002

Would you drop any of the following for Stevie Johnson in a 1PPR redraft league?:

Roddy White
Brandon LaFell
Doug Baldwin
Matt Jones

My current starters at WR are Hilton, Smith Sr, and Boldin in the flex. I was assuming LaFell would be playing sooner rather than later... but...

# ? Aug 31, 2015 18:54

Amergin: Jan 29, 2013; THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Its Miller Time posted:

Recruitment for my fantasy football league is open.

It is a $50 buy in, 12 teams ESPN, 2/3/1 RB/WR/flex, 1 PPR and 6 PPPTD. The draft is Thursday 9/3 at 8:30PM PST. Winner nets a cool $500. I try and do a brief commentary every week.

Thread with leaguesafe and ESPN links: http://forums.somethingawful.com/sh...1#post449543454

FWIW his commentaries are pretty entertaining/helpful and are probably the main reason I'm joining this league as it's my... 10th league this year. :negative: