China Economy Megathread

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namesake: Jun 19, 2006; "When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

This is probably a very stupid question but how is smuggling along the coast of China? Any chance of smaller container ships making some unscheduled (and obviously unregulated) stops somewhere?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 20:10

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:52

Crashrat: Apr 2, 2012

So apparently another chemical explosion. This time in Dongying - http://www.businessinsider.com/another-explosion-has-reportedly-rocked-a-chemical-plant-in-china-2015-8

# ? Aug 31, 2015 20:15

Lucy Heartfilia: May 31, 2012

Goddamit, China. Get your poo poo together.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 20:20

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Goddamit, China. Get your poo poo together.

Preferably with appropriate setbacks from residential areas.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 20:31

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Crashrat posted:

So apparently another chemical explosion. This time in Dongying - http://www.businessinsider.com/another-explosion-has-reportedly-rocked-a-chemical-plant-in-china-2015-8

Is this completely out of the blue string of explosions in ports just a case of nobody reporting it before? Are we sure this isn't a black op or the quietest terrorists ever?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 20:40

Spazzle: Jul 5, 2003

Kafka Esq. posted:

Is this completely out of the blue string of explosions in ports just a case of nobody reporting it before? Are we sure this isn't a black op or the quietest terrorists ever?

They are practice runs before the big heist by a gang of supercriminals.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 20:44

Crashrat: Apr 2, 2012

Kafka Esq. posted:

Is this completely out of the blue string of explosions in ports just a case of nobody reporting it before? Are we sure this isn't a black op or the quietest terrorists ever?

I know this video was taken down from Weibo pretty quickly. The Politburo has been rather schizophrenic about the media lately - on the one hand they openly criticized local leadership for censoring the Tianjin explosion and disallowing media...but they're apparently censoring the news on this one?

I mean it's China so no one actually knows anything - especially not the Politburo.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 21:20

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

quote:

Now that the stock market has ended its foolish careening in response to China�s modest, sensible adjustment in its exchange-rate mechanism, where are we? To borrow from Donald Rumsfeld�s famous observation about defense planning, there�s what we know, what we don�t know, and what we don�t know we don�t know.

Unfortunately, the first category of knowledge isn�t very impressive and latter two are huge. In a century as complex as the 21st has already proven, this is perilous.

The most obvious example: It�s now clear many powerful people in government, politics, and the markets don�t know anything about China. Worse, they don�t know they don�t know anything about China.

Related: Walker Jumps on Trump�s Anti-China Bandwagon

There�s no other way to explain (1) the market panic following China�s 1.9 percent devaluation earlier this month, and (2) Chuck Schumer�s diatribe about a currency war that never was and the irrational responses of various presidential aspirants.

The paranoid misread of Beijing�s minor, quite beneficial adjustment in its currency policies is but one case of a prevalent refusal to see the world beyond America�s shores�all of it�as it is. There�s no future in this stance, to put the point mildly.

Now that it�s behind us, there are lessons to draw from the debacle of the past two weeks. Let�s consider three.

Lesson No. One: It�s time to address the ignorance of China we�ve just seen on display. It�s a long-term project, given that the West as a whole hasn�t understood the mainland at all well at least since the Opium Wars of the 1830s and 1840s.

This is pressing now because incomprehension jeopardizes America�s leadership position. Like it or not, and many Americans don�t, the People�s Republic is already a global power and will grow ever more influential in this role. Working with China is tomorrow, working against it, yesterday.

Related: China�s Economy May Be in Better Shape Than We Think

Think of it this way: There�s not much distance between some Republican presidential hopefuls, Schumer, a prominent Democratic senator who cast China as an adversary intent on doing America in through cyber espionage, and the Obama administration in its effort to undermine Beijing�s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank last spring.

Closer to the trading floor, just because share trading is globalized doesn�t mean all equity markets are more or less the same. Asia�s markets either matured late or are still maturing, and they play a different role in capital formation than markets in the West. We have to learn how to read them accurately.

Anyone who knows the Asian equity scene knows it has a casino gambling aspect typical at this stage of development. As Nicolas Lardy, a sinologist at the Peterson Institute pointed out in The Times last week, the rout in Shanghai reflects not weakness in the Chinese economy so much as millions of small-time, first-time panicked investors�as they should be�because they�re overextended. �False alarm,� as the headline on Lardy�s piece put it.

Lesson No. 2: A careen is not a crisis, but we�re no more ready to manage another of the latter than we were in the summer of 2008. Two factors leave us nowhere near where we need to be on this point, given our economy�s exposure in China and other emerging economies.

Related: Why China�s Slowdown Will Lead to Sustainable Growth

Ideology and lobbyists: These are the factors.

You may favor a balanced-budget amendment, as John Kasich does, but I�m with Paul Krugman on this point: Where would George W. Bush have been had such a law prevented him from structuring a bank bailout in 2008? And would Obama have been reelected had he not been able to support that policy with temporary deficit spending? Another good question: Can anyone credibly argue anymore that self-regulation on Wall Street has proven a winner?

Time to take a lesson from none other than the Chinese: �Seek truth from facts,� as Deng Xiaoping, hero of all free-marketeers, urged as he got his �socialism with Chinese characteristics� back in the late-1970s. The fact here is we�re letting beliefs and Wall Street lobbies take the place of hard, clear thinking as to how to manage another financial crisis, if not avoid one.

The No. 3 lesson: The current presidential campaigns�those of both parties�are taking place too far from 21st century realities to do the nation any good. Based on what we�re hearing now, who among the candidates has a sophisticated, useful take on China--a policy mix that will advance the relationship?

Related: China Stocks Rise on Signs of Government Support

Trump says it�s time to face off with Beijing, with faint echoes of Hearst�s �yellow peril� in his stump speeches. Scott Walker tells Obama to cancel President Xi Jinping�s state visit in September in response to a stock market correction. Hillary Clinton bobs and weaves, while Bernie Sanders doesn�t say much of anything.

You can�t dismiss this as just politics. Our leaders and would-be leaders take large, unnecessary risks with our future as they decline to put 21st century realities before us because they are unwilling to take political risks to themselves that are penny-ante in the scheme of things.

Where�s the sense of proportion here? I see little to none�about as much as we�ve all seen lately in the share markets.

Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Aug 31, 2015

# ? Aug 31, 2015 21:33

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

That was from The Fiscal Times btw

# ? Aug 31, 2015 21:38

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Ceciltron posted:

We're all gonna be arrested.

Man, China is not a country I want to be banned from just yet.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 21:42

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

Fojar38 posted:

That was from The Fiscal Times btw

I really like the Donald Rumsfield's quote at the start, it wonderfully sets the tone.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 21:57

The Lord of Hats: Aug 22, 2010; Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?

Just so I'm sure my understanding is clear, the huge drops in the market that we saw were during a time in which only the 'stable' stocks were allowed to trade, right? Everything that was seen as insecure was frozen back during that initial bailout, and hasn't gone back on the market in the interim.

Doesn't that mean that either the stocks stay frozen forever, thus making them worthless, or The market takes another huge dive when they're reintroduced at still-inflated prices?

# ? Aug 31, 2015 22:14

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

lol wtf is the fiscal times

Is that like high times for central bankers

# ? Aug 31, 2015 22:35

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Cultural Imperial posted:

lol wtf is the fiscal times

Is that like high times for central bankers

quote:

The Fiscal Times (TFT) is an English-language digital news, news analysis and opinion publication based in New York City and Washington, D.C. and founded in 2010. The publication received its initial funding from Peter G. Peterson, founder of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and a billionaire investment banker, who has long advocated deficit reduction, reduced social welfare program expenditures, and cuts to Social Security.

deng xiaoping, free market hero

# ? Aug 31, 2015 22:38

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Fojar38 posted:

deng xiaoping, free market hero

Oh, so they weren't being sarcastic? I was pretty torn.

# ? Aug 31, 2015 22:43

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

Uhhh is the Fiscal Times just banking on pretending to be the FT?

WRT automation and labor:

Automation is a difficult problem in predicting a firm or industry's demand for labor because there is an output effect and a substitution effect going on. Automation does substitute for labor, but it also increases the output of individual workers. We would assume that as a substitute, increases in automation would decrease demand for labor, but at the same time, as each unit of labor produces more output because of automation, we should see an increase in demand for labor. Therefore it's not easy to make categorical statements about how automation will affect a firm's decisions about hiring labor. Generally automation decreases demand for labor, but there are huge outliers like the cotton gin where the output effect completely overpowers the substitution effect. Economists do not have special insight into future innovations in technology, and are therefore not able to predict with any certainty the influence of automation in the long term in any given industry.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 00:01

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Arglebargle III posted:

Uhhh is the Fiscal Times just banking on pretending to be the FT?

I'm the inexplicable reference to the Opium Wars, showing that the author of the article is an Important Thinker Who Understands Chinese History.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 00:49

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008; Can't post for 18 hours!

Fojar38 posted:

I'm the inexplicable reference to the Opium Wars, showing that the author of the article is an Important Thinker Who Understands Chinese History.

Are Chinese people still sore about that?

# ? Sep 1, 2015 01:38

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Are Chinese people still sore about that?

If they are they shouldn't be.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 01:38

Rorac: Aug 19, 2011

Kafka Esq. posted:

Is this completely out of the blue string of explosions in ports just a case of nobody reporting it before? Are we sure this isn't a black op or the quietest terrorists ever?

I was talking with my roommate about this after we got word of the second explosion. Old military saying: Once is chance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action. I honestly think that a string of explosions this quickly between them isn't just terrible practices and bad luck.

Rorac fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Sep 1, 2015

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:20

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

It's probably just stuff that nobody bothered reporting on before

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:22

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

I'm betting that these explosions happen all the time but this is the first time the Western media is covering them as part of their broader "Holy poo poo China is melting" story.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:22

twerking on the railroad: Jun 23, 2007; Get on my level

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Are Chinese people still sore about that?

I hear opium is pretty good for soreness

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:33

Vladimir Putin: Mar 17, 2007; by R. Guyovich

Kafka Esq. posted:

Is this completely out of the blue string of explosions in ports just a case of nobody reporting it before? Are we sure this isn't a black op or the quietest terrorists ever?

I too have a hard time believing this is all a coincidence.

Vladimir Putin fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Sep 1, 2015

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:37

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Fojar38 posted:

I'm betting that these explosions happen all the time but this is the first time the Western media is covering them as part of their broader "Holy poo poo China is melting" story.

maybe with enough industrial explosions it can actually melt irl

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:43

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

stock market is down again on start today expect to see it suddenly explode in afternoon trading when the government liquidates another $10 billion in treasuries to make it so it only drops .5%

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:49

BCR: Jan 23, 2011

Vladimir Putin posted:

I too have a hard time believing this is all a confidence.

I believe it is. Everything in China is compromised at some level. The quality of the materials, the plans that use those materials, the training and education of the workers. This is before we get to corruption, nepotism and do it first then worry about it later.

I have no problem with imagining that a chemical plant is blowing up every month in China through faulty construction, maintenance or human error.

You do not have well made equipment, using good plans with well trained staff.
You do not have well made equipment, with good plans, with working fail safes that can manage a poorly trained workforce.
You have shithouse equipment, with little if any planning, with shithouse safety plans on top of a poorly trained workforce.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:53

Grand Theft Autobot: Feb 28, 2008; I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

Wanna watch this fucker drop under 3k again.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:54

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Revive the a shares for the benefit of the people!

# ? Sep 1, 2015 02:55

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008; Can't post for 18 hours!

Open half an hour an already down 3.37 %

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:02

Miltank: Dec 27, 2009; by XyloJW

Maybe China will become Communist again?

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:04

BCR: Jan 23, 2011

Nationalise the A Shares!

-4% now

BCR fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Sep 1, 2015

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:05

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Oh my loving god that fall.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:09

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

I don't get it. Didn't they catch the journalists and hedge fund managers that were scaring the investors?

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:11

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008; Can't post for 18 hours!

MothraAttack posted:

I don't get it. Didn't they catch the journalists and hedge fund managers that were scaring the investors?

They only caught one of them, there might be another one out there.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:13

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Ahahahaha, I guess all those arrests really worked in getting confidence back in the market.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:16

Grand Theft Autobot: Feb 28, 2008; I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

They just need to arrest harder. It's what any good free marketeer would want, right Fiscal Times editorial board?

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:18

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

CommieGIR posted:

Ahahahaha, I guess all those arrests really worked in getting confidence back in the market.

beatings will continue until the index improves

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:22

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

etalian posted:

beatings will continue until the index improves

"Suicide nets have been installed at the trading house for YOUR protection."

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:24

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:52

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

Fojar38 posted:

I'm betting that these explosions happen all the time but this is the first time the Western media is covering them as part of their broader "Holy poo poo China is melting" story.

There's enough cellphones in China to refute that.

# ? Sep 1, 2015 03:24

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