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How is this going to work out with US airstrikes? There has to be some airspace coordination between the US, Turkey and Russia on this or it'll quickly become a clusterfuck. If there is cooperation, then good job ISIS on managing to get the two nations with the largest stockpile of bombs and planes to gently caress with you. Also, what's Russias take on the Kurds?
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Sep 1, 2015 00:07
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Russia couldn't give a gently caress less about ISIS, they're busy going balls deep into Ukraine. If anything they're doing this to prop up Assad and will be bombing ISIS, JAN, FSA, etc.
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Sep 1, 2015 00:11
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Volkerball posted:I just posted not long ago about evidence Russian troops were becoming directly involved in Syria. There's been Russian facilities operated by Russians that were overrun by rebels that have come out over the last couple years, but there's a lot recently pointing towards greater involvement, which is covered in the linked article. And as I recall, the Russian signals intelligence outpost in Syria was aimed at intercepting communications from Israel, which was a much clearer benefit for both sides. This would be a different sort of long game. The one that involves little green men and very nice satellite photos.
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Sep 1, 2015 00:33
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Sergg posted:If anything they're doing this to prop up Assad and will be bombing ISIS, JAN, FSA, etc. In reverse order.
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Sep 1, 2015 00:34
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lol the russians aren't going to waste munitions on a non-entity like the FSA
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Sep 1, 2015 00:45
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What was the name of that English-speaking (I think she was American or British?) journalist who was so in the bag for Gaddafi during the Libyan Civil War? All I remember is she was occasionally interviewed on RT, and she enjoyed the term "tebels" [terrorist rebels].
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Sep 1, 2015 03:25
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Golbez posted:What was the name of that English-speaking (I think she was American or British?) journalist who was so in the bag for Gaddafi during the Libyan Civil War? All I remember is she was occasionally interviewed on RT, and she enjoyed the term "tebels" [terrorist rebels]. Sounds like Laura Ingraham but that's probably 100% bullshit out my rear end and I don't have any actual clue.
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Sep 1, 2015 04:43
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Golbez posted:What was the name of that English-speaking (I think she was American or British?) journalist who was so in the bag for Gaddafi during the Libyan Civil War? All I remember is she was occasionally interviewed on RT, and she enjoyed the term "tebels" [terrorist rebels]. You're probably thinking of Lizzie Phelan. She filed that report from the Rixos Hotel in Tripoli as the city was falling to the rebel's surprise onslaught. Unsurprisingly, she's also in the bag for Assad as well, although IIRC I don't think she's doing much war tourism anymore.
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Sep 1, 2015 04:49
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In a pretty large story, Petraeus has been advocating an interesting strategy in meetings, that essentially mimics his strategy for Iraq with the Anbar Awakening. Now every headline you'll see will say something to the effect of "Petraeus wants to side with al Qaeda," but this is lazy sensationalism. What he's advocating is "a strategy of co-opting rank-and-file members of al Nusra, particularly those who don’t necessarily share all of core al Qaeda’s Islamist philosophy." So the goal here would be to undermine JaN/al Qaeda by bringing in people who fight with JaN for reasons other than ideological ones (similar to how fighters with AQI were adopted into the Sons of Iraq to fight against AQI), and using them to fight ISIS, thus degrading both ISIS and JaN. This strategy was very successful in Iraq, and could have been part of a long term solution, had Maliki not thrown the Sons of Iraq under the bus after things had cooled down. But I see one major difference between Iraq in 2007 and Syria today. There was no Assad dynamic in Iraq. Take the recent attempts to train rebel fighters in Turkey for Division 30. There were thousands of people who signed up for that training, but less than 100 actually showed up because the US demanded that people taking the training signed a contract saying they would only fight against ISIS. In Iraq we could say "We will pay you, train you, and equip you. Then you can go fight AQI (ISIS), and bring peace," and a lot of people in AQI thought that was a sweet deal. But if you say that to someone in Syria, they're going to say that ISIS isn't the problem, Assad is. So there would have to be a serious commitment to bring about the end of the regime for this strategy to go anywhere, which obviously isn't happening as long as Obama is in office. The other thing of note is that it might be too late. A lot of people were discussing strategies like this in 2012, when JaN was first put on the terror list. There's little doubt that at the time, JaN's support base was less ideological and more opportunistic than it is today. But JaN and jihadists in general rely on a persecution complex that the west hates Muslims and are deadset on destroying them. With years of evidence of the US not giving a poo poo about people getting slaughtered by the regime, a lot more fighters might have bought into that enough to not accept working with the US. It's a hell of a predicament, but I don't think this is the worst possible strategy. The Daily Beast broke the story and has a huge article on it. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/31/petraeus-use-al-qaeda-fighters-to-beat-isis.html?via=mobile&source=twitter
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Sep 1, 2015 05:17
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Volkerball posted:Stuff about Petraeus' plan For full disclosure, Petraeus disgusts me. I think I've shared this story previously, but I met him once, right at the beginning of the surge. At this meeting, he was briefed by a Lebanese guy who was a friend of mine, and who taught me everything there was to know about targeting AQI and understanding them and Arabs in general. The guy had been hunting AQI since they were just TWJ in the first battle of Fallujah, only leaving Iraq for two weeks a year. He was a legend amongst the SOF community and every division that came through Baghdad. This guy briefed Petraeus at this meeting, and provided the details about everything AQI was doing in Baghdad. Petraeus' only response was "so were you a cab driver before the war?" I tell that story everytime Petraeus is in the news, as to me, it displays who he is. He knows nothing of the Arab culture, and seemingly made little effort to gain any insight. Sure, he was the poster boy for COIN, but that was built on the backs of Kilcullen and the Marines who were already practicing it. FM 3-22 (COIN doctrine) is laughable in how generic it is. And now here he is, the diva general pitching the same idea that, while successful in Iraq, failed in Afghanistan. The situation in Syria, and with ISIL is not conducive to this strategy. We don't have the boots on ground to distribute anything or support tribal forces. W cannot rely on the local governments to follow-through in anything, let alone arming the Sunni. The Sahwa who worked with us? Most of them are dead. We hung them out to dry, knowing they would be caught between the Iraqi Shia government and AQI, who would slowly pick them off. His plan is to feed off JaN and other extremist groups? JaN was AQI/ISI until its leader made a power play for autonomy through Zawahiri, which backfired and caused the split. There is no pulling people from that group to work with with the west, they are nothing we should be involved with, not that they'd have us. Furthermore, ISIL holds land, and fight for land now. They have moved beyond a simple insurgency. Petreaus is still attempting to fight Mao's idea of the insurgents acting as fish with the populace as the sea. No popular uprising will fix this, and only a fool would think it could. Hell, everyone in this thread knows that and we've never had any stars on our lapel. Petraeus is trying to grab headlines (as always), and he needs to just stay gone. Sorry for the obvious emotion in this post, but I truly despise that man. Edit: And just to say it, we knew what Maliki would do to the sons, and let it happen anyway. We allowed his sectarian bullshit time and time again with no effort to mitigate what he was doing. So while Maliki was directly responsible, we are also complicit. Many leaders tried to change things, but after the SoFA went into effect in 09, little was done to curb Maliki. Bait and Swatch fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Sep 1, 2015 |
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Sep 1, 2015 06:20
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Bait and Swatch posted:Edit: And just to say it, we knew what Maliki would do to the sons, and let it happen anyway. We allowed his sectarian bullshit time and time again with no effort to mitigate what he was doing. So while Maliki was directly responsible, we are also complicit. Many leaders tried to change things, but after the SoFA went into effect in 09, little was done to curb Maliki. Not "we," Obama. Obama wanted a 'win,' and in the process, facilitated the rise of ISIL. If Obama wasn't so deadset on winning his withdrawal, ISIL would not exist, and Palmyra would still be standing.
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Sep 1, 2015 07:03
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Bait and Swatch posted:His plan is to feed off JaN and other extremist groups? JaN was AQI/ISI until its leader made a power play for autonomy through Zawahiri, which backfired and caused the split. There is no pulling people from that group to work with with the west, they are nothing we should be involved with, not that they'd have us. This is sort of the crux, and I'm undecided. You're neglecting to mention a key aspect of what comprises JaN's force though. In 2012, the FSA were living off what they could buy from the regime and what they could scavenge, with little foreign aid. JaN were heavily supported by foreign governments. They immediately made an impact on the ground due to their ability to secure greater funding, training, and equipment. So when Syrians fighting against the regime were presented with a choice, fight with the FSA, or fight with Nusra, they chose the latter. In interviews, they'd say that Nusra were alright guys, who didn't harbor "terrorist" aspirations and were legitimately trying to bring about the end of Assad rather than doing the ISIS thing and carving out a state on the backs of those who were fighting the regime. This was a huge aspect of JaN's composition in the early going, and it grew so quickly that it was very decentralized. You can't just point to what leaders were saying, because those leaders often had a tangential connection to militias on the ground. If you, your brother, and some friends gather together some guns and start a militia, then you can pledge allegiance to the FSA or JaN. Many chose the latter, because it would boost their military competence. But that didn't necessarily mean they 100% support everything Joulani supports, although some obviously did. In many cases, it was an opportunistic thing to do. That base of people could absolutely be drawn into a different fighting force provided that they believed that doing so was the best way for them to bring about an end to the regime. So I think this strategy would've have been quite viable back then, and I still think it was a mistake to immediately toss them on the terror list and kind of lump the US in with countries Syrians saw as in favor of their oppression. That said, it's questionable how decentralized and based on this fragile network of alliances JaN still is today. Until 2014, they were the big dogs in the jihadist circuit, and if a takfiri foreigner was coming to fight in Syria, that's who they signed up with. They've also dabbled in governance, and had years of time with some of the same men, so it's possible that trying to ween fighters away from them now would be trying to squeeze blood from a turnip. quote:Edit: And just to say it, we knew what Maliki would do to the sons, and let it happen anyway. We allowed his sectarian bullshit time and time again with no effort to mitigate what he was doing. So while Maliki was directly responsible, we are also complicit. Many leaders tried to change things, but after the SoFA went into effect in 09, little was done to curb Maliki. Agreed.
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Sep 1, 2015 07:21
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My Imaginary GF posted:Not "we," Obama. Obama wanted a 'win,' and in the process, facilitated the rise of ISIL. If Obama wasn't so deadset on winning his withdrawal, ISIL would not exist, and Palmyra would still be standing. Lol, that's a real stretch. If the bar here is limp-wristed "facilitation" then you could point the same argument at any number of events and actors in the last couple decades, most notably Bush (who oversaw the Iraq invasion as well as ordered the American withdrawal) and the GOP congress (which never lifted a finger to authorize force against ISIS during its rise, and remains complacent in spite of the clear need to end sequestration and begin funding and preparing our military for a new conflict.) But "If not for Boehner, ISIL would not exist, and Palmyra would still be standing" is no more convincing than blaming Obama, since there's a clear lack of causation. Realistically, a dominant Sunni jihadist group is going to exist in some form or another regardless of American policy in Iraq or in Syria, since the Islamic State group was generated out of sectarian religious and economic tensions that are quite independent of American influence. Kaal fucked around with this message at 07:53 on Sep 1, 2015 |
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Sep 1, 2015 07:44
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How bout some good news for a change? http://www.addictinginfo.org/2015/09/01/iran-us-embassy/ quote:“Death To America 2015″ graffiti erased from walls of former U.S. Embassy in Tehran 
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Sep 1, 2015 14:04
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Kaal posted:Lol, that's a real stretch. If the bar here is limp-wristed "facilitation" then you could point the same argument at any number of events and actors in the last couple decades, most notably Bush (who oversaw the Iraq invasion as well as ordered the American withdrawal) and the GOP congress (which never lifted a finger to authorize force against ISIS during its rise, and remains complacent in spite of the clear need to end sequestration and begin funding and preparing our military for a new conflict.) But "If not for Boehner, ISIL would not exist, and Palmyra would still be standing" is no more convincing than blaming Obama, since there's a clear lack of causation. Realistically, a dominant Sunni jihadist group is going to exist in some form or another regardless of American policy in Iraq or in Syria, since the Islamic State group was generated out of sectarian religious and economic tensions that are quite independent of American influence. What's wrong with having a limp wrist, bigot?
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Sep 1, 2015 14:53
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Warcabbit posted:How bout some good news for a change? In Iran, "death to America" means "death to the Jewish state and America's continued recognition of it." Iranian policymakers are learning to shroud their antisemitism as expressed through antiamericanism with antizionism. This is not a good thing, nor is it a true change in Iranian policy of supporting bombings of Jewish cultural sites throughout the world.
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Sep 1, 2015 15:02
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Torrannor posted:That's not my experience with the German media, it's pretty much "we can manage the number of refugees, also, look at those racists who protest against them or even attack them, they are a shame for Germany!" Germany is also, arguably, the most progressive nation in Europe with regards to immigration - at least as a society. Most countries have agreed only to take in a few, plead for quotas, and some (like Slovakia) have even put up criteria that the families they take have to be christian.
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Sep 1, 2015 15:14
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Warcabbit posted:How bout some good news for a change? Aww, that's actually kind of endearing.
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Sep 1, 2015 15:51
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I wonder how the Middle East could ever break the habit of following the Hadith and start being more Quranist-only? (#BreakingtheHadith)
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Sep 1, 2015 16:08
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I'm so happy to see all the little steps taken to bring the US and Iran back together. In 10 years I hope to take a vacation in Iran and be able to laugh about the bad old times while enjoying learning about a truly ancient and impressive country and what by all accounts I've read are a wonderfully kind and generous people.
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Sep 1, 2015 16:20
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How are u posted:I'm so happy to see all the little steps taken to bring the US and Iran back together. In 10 years I hope to take a vacation in Iran and be able to laugh about the bad old times while enjoying learning about a truly ancient and impressive country and what by all accounts I've read are a wonderfully kind and generous people. Same. I've heard their public executions of dissidents are some of the best produced in the world. Real can't miss shows.
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Sep 1, 2015 16:42
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Universities don't even award A's there! A is for God they say.
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Sep 1, 2015 16:48
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Volkerball posted:Same. I've heard their public executions of dissidents are some of the best produced in the world. Real can't miss shows. Iran is a great place for gay men to hang out, too How are u posted:a wonderfully kind and generous people. It weirds me out when I see people say this about any country, like do they really not think that most places have about the same proportion of nice people and assholes?
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Sep 1, 2015 16:48
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Volkerball posted:Same. I've heard their public executions of dissidents are some of the best produced in the world. Real can't miss shows. Same, but American police chases and shootouts.
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Sep 1, 2015 16:50
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On small bit of irony is that depending on how you look at it, we've already done "co-opting rank-and-file members of al Nusra, particularly those who don’t necessarily share all of core al Qaeda’s Islamist philosophy." Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa, one of the main FSA groups in the Euphrates Volcano, affiliated themselves with JaN back in 2013 as part of an effort to keep Raqqa from falling under ISIL's control. Even from the start there was friction between Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa and JaN over Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa not being "Islamist" enough, and not practicing Sharia properly. ISIL ended up taking over Raqqa anyway and Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa was forced to retreat from the city, and they eventually ended up in the area around Kobani. At around that time, JaN officially disowned them for not being Islamist enough: Jabhat al-Nusra, on 16 April 2014 posted:More than 6 months ago Liwa Thuwar Raqqa joined us in the city of Raqqa, and they had shown their readiness to submit to Shari'a sessions and discipline with precepts approved by Jabhat al-Nusra. Fast forward to August/September, and ISIL started their now infamous attack on Kobani canton/Kobani, and Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa was right there fighting alongside the YPG/YPJ against ISIL. Eventually ISIL was kicked out of Kobani and the Kurdish-majority areas, and Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa started taking the lead for kicking ISIL out of Arab-majority areas like Tal Abyad and Ayn Issa. It's now been a year, and not only is Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa still fighting ISIL, they're also meeting with leaders in Tal Abyad about forming an (Arab) anti-ISIL force. And that's the story of how a group that was formerly affiliated to Jabhat al-Nusra is now a reliable anti-ISIL group.  The point of this is that it's certainly possible to peel off al-Nusra affiliates, but the problem now is: Volkerball posted:They've also dabbled in governance, and had years of time with some of the same men, so it's possible that trying to ween fighters away from them now would be trying to squeeze blood from a turnip. fade5 fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Sep 1, 2015 |
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Sep 1, 2015 16:59
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Volkerball posted:Same. I've heard their public executions of dissidents are some of the best produced in the world. Real can't miss shows. You were just trying to talk yourself into an alliance with literal Al Qaeda in Syria.
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Sep 1, 2015 17:04
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Sinteres posted:You were just trying to talk yourself into an alliance with literal Al Qaeda in Syria. It's ok, he's exceptional.
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Sep 1, 2015 17:20
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Sinteres posted:You were just trying to talk yourself into an alliance with literal Al Qaeda in Syria. An alliance where we try to steal their fighters. BFF's. That claim doesn't hold up beyond a sensationalist headline, which is obviously all you've read.
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Sep 1, 2015 17:25
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Volkerball posted:An alliance where we try to steal their fighters. BFF's. That claim doesn't hold up beyond a sensationalist headline, which is obviously all you've read. I mean you can dress some wolves up as sheep, but I have a feeling as soon as it's convenient a lot of those sheep are going to turn back into wolves. How did working with the brave mujaheddin of Afghanistan work out for us?
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Sep 1, 2015 17:32
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Warcabbit posted:How bout some good news for a change? Getting ready for the re-opening! e: ^^^^ yeah. The constant flow of militants and resources from one group to another isn't a case for getting more involved. There is no loyalty, not to the US. You can buy them off in the short term maybe, but in the end you wind up with a better armed region, ready to flip to whatever new group meets with success. Count Roland fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Sep 1, 2015 |
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Sep 1, 2015 17:33
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Bait and Swatch posted:Israeli media is reporting that Russia has/is sending troops to Syria and they will be conducting airstrikes against ISIS with the intent of bolstering the Assad regime. If true, I don't see Assad's regime falling, and I'm curious to see if they will target other rebels as well. Military intervention in the Middle East? Did the Russians learn nothing from Chomsky's RT interviews?!
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Sep 1, 2015 18:11
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My Imaginary GF posted:In Iran, "death to America" means "death to the Jewish state and America's continued recognition of it." What is the Jewish State?
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Sep 1, 2015 18:12
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Radbot posted:What is the Jewish State? New York?
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Sep 1, 2015 18:14
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It just seems weird to me. "Jewish state." Why don't we create a "white state" here in America and be best buds? Brothers in supremacy.
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Sep 1, 2015 18:19
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Volkerball posted:Same. I've heard their public executions of dissidents are some of the best produced in the world. Real can't miss shows. Keep banging that war drum, friend. Increasing Iranian ties to the West and the World at large is only going to change things for the better.
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Sep 1, 2015 18:19
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Iran is bad because they execute gay people. Now here are five paragraphs about how we must ally with Sunni tribesmen. ??? I do not get this perspective at all.
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Sep 1, 2015 19:46
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suboptimal posted:You're probably thinking of Lizzie Phelan. She filed that report from the Rixos Hotel in Tripoli as the city was falling to the rebel's surprise onslaught. Unsurprisingly, she's also in the bag for Assad as well, although IIRC I don't think she's doing much war tourism anymore. That's the one, thanks. I was wondering what she was doing these days.
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Sep 1, 2015 19:51
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Radbot posted:It just seems weird to me. "Jewish state." Why don't we create a "white state" here in America and be best buds? Brothers in supremacy. Those two states would be enemies.
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Sep 1, 2015 21:16
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mastershakeman posted:Those two states would be enemies. They'd actually be allies. Racial separatists are very big on the idea of each race having its own states and ne'er the two shall mix. I'd wager that most white supremacists in the US don't want to kill all the Jews / African Americans / Hispanics, they just want them completely removed from the country.
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Sep 1, 2015 21:31
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My Imaginary GF posted:Not "we," Obama. I ask this with all honesty, and I think I know the answer, but is this a serious post?
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Sep 1, 2015 21:32
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