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Fajita Queen
Jun 21, 2012

Zonekeeper posted:

Yud's characterization of Transfiguration never really fit to me. While "Turning something into something else and back again" would certainly be considered highly dangerous by anyone scientific, in the main series it's mostly portrayed as harmless up until you get to the advanced stuff, and even then the harmful stuff seemed to be fixable for the most part. The way this fanfic characterizes it, Krum's partial transfiguration into a shark was the single riskiest move made during the triwizard tournament yet that was treated as well thought out but imperfectly done, and a group of teenagers managed to work out becoming animagi all on their own with no apparent ill effects.

The kind of seriousness McGonagall expressed in the last section had the tone of a NEWT class where they start routinely deal with complex poo poo that will send you to St. Mungo's if you screw up, not a first year intro to basic magic for 11 year olds.

It's solely so he can set up Harry's bullshit superpower that he ends up killing Voldemort with

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Zonekeeper
Oct 27, 2007



The Shortest Path posted:

It's solely so he can set up Harry's bullshit superpower that he ends up killing Voldemort with

I am so glad I gave up reading this piece of poo poo halfway through.

i81icu812
Dec 5, 2006

divabot posted:

The Reddit thread meltdown continues, on Tumblr. nostalgebraist sums up the problem. Do click on all the "reblogged this from" below with comments, there's a fascinating conversation going on there. (I post here with stuff I said in this thread.) The disappointed cultists are particularly delicious, e.g. this one lamenting that Yudkowsky has strayed from Yudkowsky's path.

Want to see a real meltdown? Link this post!



CHAPTER 1
No science

CHAPTER 2
Conservation of Energy - Bad Science

quote:

You turned into a cat! A SMALL cat! You violated Conservation of Energy!
Not necessarily violating conservation of energy. Could be a very heavy cat. Or the mass energy turned into some other non-mass energy that you can't see. Etc.

The Hamiltonian and energy conservation - Bad Science

quote:

You violated Conservation of Energy! That's not just an arbitrary rule, it's implied by the form of the quantum Hamiltonian!
Non energy conserving Hamiltonians can be computed just fine.

Unitary and the Hamiltonian - Bad Science

quote:

Rejecting [the quantum Hamiltonian] destroys unitarity
The Hamiltonian can be rejected while unitarity is maintained.

Faster than light signaling - Bad Science

quote:

and then [rejecting unitarity] you get FTL signalling
Faster than light signaling has nothing to do with this. Su3su2u1 has a good discussion on Chapter 2 overall:http://su3su2u1.tumblr.com/post/95953789878/chapter-2-in-which-i-remember-why-i-hated-this

CHAPTER 3
Bystander effect - Bad Science

quote:

The Dark Lord had raged upon wizarding Britain like a wilding wolf, tearing and rending at the fabric of their everyday lives. Other countries had wrung their hands but hesitated to intervene, whether out of apathetic selfishness or simple fear, for whichever was first among them to oppose the Dark Lord, their peace would be the next target of his terror.

(The bystander effect, thought Harry, thinking of Latane and Darley's experiment which had shown that you were more likely to get help if you had an epileptic fit in front of one person than in front of three. Diffusion of responsibility, everyone hoping that someone else would go first.)
Yes and no. Defined and example of original study noted correctly. Application of bystander effect to nation states rather than individuals is not good science.

CHAPTER 4
Seigniorage

quote:

And can anyone coin them, or are they issued by a monopoly that thereby collects seigniorage?
Yes. Defined.

Arbitrage and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

quote:

So not only is the wizarding economy almost completely decoupled from the Muggle economy, no one here has ever heard of arbitrage. The larger Muggle economy had a fluctuating trading range of gold to silver, so every time the Muggle gold-to-silver ratio got more than 5% away from the weight of seventeen Sickles to one Galleon, either gold or silver should have drained from the wizarding economy until it became impossible to maintain the exchange rate. Bring in a ton of silver, change to Sickles (and pay 5%), change the Sickles for Galleons, take the gold to the Muggle world, exchange it for more silver than you started with, and repeat.
Yes. Arbitrage is defined with example relative to the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

Fermi calculation

quote:

"It's a mathematical thing. Named after Enrico Fermi. A way of getting rough numbers quickly in your head..."

Twenty gold Galleons weighed a tenth of a kilogram, maybe? And gold was, what, ten thousand British pounds a kilogram? So a Galleon would be worth about fifty pounds... The mounds of gold coins looked to be about sixty coins high and twenty coins wide in either dimension of the base, and a mound was pyramidal, so it would be around one-third of the cube. Eight thousand Galleons per mound, roughly, and there were around five mounds of that size, so forty thousand Galleons or 2 million pounds sterling.

Yes. Defined with example

CHAPTER 5
Fundamental Attribution Error - Bad Science

quote:

"Suppose you come into work and see your colleague kicking his desk. You think, 'what an angry person he must be'. Your colleague is thinking about how someone bumped him into a wall on the way to work and then shouted at him. Anyone would be angry at that, he thinks. When we look at others we see personality traits that explain their behaviour, but when we look at ourselves we see circumstances that explain our behaviour. People's stories make internal sense to them, from the inside, but we don't see people's histories trailing behind them in the air. We only see them in one situation, and we don't see what they would be like in a different situation. So the fundamental attribution error is that we explain by permanent, enduring traits what would be better explained by circumstance and context."
Example given is correct. However the definition is better stated as 'fundamental attribution error is that we explain in others by permanent, enduring traits what would be better explained by circumstance and context'. Thanks Cingulate.

CHAPTER 6
Natural language understanding - Bad Science

quote:

How can [the bag of holding] know that 'bag of 115 Galleons' is okay but not 'bag of 90 plus 25 Galleons'? It can count but it can't add? It can understand nouns, but not some noun phrases that mean the same thing? The person who made this probably didn't speak Japanese and I don't speak any Hebrew, so it's not using their knowledge, and it's not using my knowledge -" Harry waved a hand helplessly. "The rules seem sorta consistent but they don't mean anything! I'm not even going to ask how a pouch ends up with voice recognition and natural language understanding
No. Bag does not demonstrate natural language understanding.

The planning fallacy - Bad Science

quote:

reality usually delivers results a little worse than the 'worst-case scenario'. It's called the planning fallacy
Yes and no. Defined correctly. Context example of McGonagall saying a first aid kit is unneeded is not actually an example of the planning fallacy, since no duration planning takes place.

Bayes' Theorem - Bad Science

quote:

"It is very curious indeed that you should be destined for this wand when its brother why, its brother gave you that scar."

That could not possibly be coincidence. There had been thousands of wands in that shop. Well, okay, actually it could be coincidence, there were six billion people in the world and thousand-to-one coincidences happened every day. But Bayes's Theorem said that any reasonable hypothesis which made it more likely than a thousand-to-one that he'd end up with the brother to the Dark Lord's wand, was going to have an advantage.
Bayes' Theorem is the usual spelling for historical reasons. Use of Bayes's Theorem is unclear and potentially misleading to reader unfamiliar with definition. Thanks Cingulate.

CHAPTER 7
Naming schema - Bad Science

quote:

"I'll call you Mr. Silver."

"You get away from... from Mr. Gold," Ron said coldly, and took a forward step. "He doesn't need to talk to the likes of you!"

Harry raised a placating hand. "I'll go by Mr. Bronze, thanks for the naming schema.

Not actually a naming schema.

Reciprocation theory

quote:

My own books called it reciprocation and they talk about how giving someone a straight gift of two Sickles was found to be twice as effective as offering them twenty Sickles in getting them to do what you want

Yes. Defined with example.

CHAPTER 8
Quark Names - Bad Science

quote:

name the six quarks or tell me where to find Hermione Granger.

"Up, down, strange, charm, truth, beauty, and why are you looking for her?"
Top and bottom are the typical names for the final quark pair, not truth and beauty.

Confirmation bias - Bad Science

quote:

"What you've just discovered is called 'positive bias'," said the boy. "You had a rule in your mind, and you kept on thinking of triplets that should make the rule say 'Yes'. But you didn't try to test any triplets that should make the rule say 'No'. In fact you didn't get a single 'No', so 'any three numbers' could have just as easily been the rule.
Textbook example of Confirmation Bias is given but inaccurately renamed 'Positive Bias' for unknown reasons. Moreover, the classic formation of confirmation bias has been generally disproven by more recent studies in favor of a more nuanced formulation, see Klayman and Ha or Caverni and Rossi.

Bystander apathy

quote:

I think there were some people in the crowd who wanted to interfere at first, but bystander apathy held them off at least until they saw what we were doing, and then I think they were all too confused to do anything.
Yes. Previously defined in bystander effect discussion from chapter 3.

Desensitisation therapy - Bad Science

quote:

[Harry, Fred, and George bullying Neville] Finally he said in this tiny little whisper 'go away' so the three of us all screamed and ran off, shrieking something about the light burning us. Hopefully he won't be as scared of being bullied in the future. That's called desensitisation therapy, by the way.

Desensitization therapy is the training of a practiced relaxation response in to a phobic stimulus and gradually increasing the stimulus hierarchy. The point of the therapy is to train a non-panic response to the stimulus. Scaring the crap out of someone isn't useful if they aren't trying to control themselves and train another reaction. Most charitably you might call this a sort of attempted classical conditioning. But really this is just bullying, plain and simple.

Consequentialism

quote:

That's called consequentialism, by the way, it means that whether an act is right or wrong isn't determined by whether it looks bad, or mean, or anything like that, the only question is how it will turn out in the end - what are the consequences
Yes defined and example given.

CHAPTER 9
Speciation and hybrids - Bad Science

quote:

You can't just mix two different species together and get viable offspring! It ought to scramble the genetic instructions for every organ that's different between the two species
Hybrid speciation is a thing, most obviously in mules. Hybrids can even be sexually viable.

CHAPTER 10
No science. su3su2u1 makes an argument that blackmailing the sorting hat is nonsensical.

CHAPTER 11
No Science. Filler chapters

CHAPTER 12
Confirmation Bias - Bad Science

quote:

that meant that as soon as he learned a spell to temporarily alter his own sense of humor, he could make anything happen, by making it so that he would only find that one thing surprising enough to do a spit-take, and then drinking a can of Comed-Tea.
Harry appears to be suffering from confirmation bias in his 'experiments' with comed-tea. No experiments with negative outcomes have been done as Harry attempts to understand how Comed-tea works, despite lecturing Hermione on this very shortcoming in Chapter 8. Unclear if this is a literary device or otherwise intentional.

CHAPTER 13
No science. Assuming time travel self consistency mechanics to be magical and part of setting.

CHAPTER 14
Time-reversal and antimatter - Bad Science

quote:

time-reversed ordinary matter looks just like antimatter
Not strictly correct.
The Feynman-Stueckelberg Interpretation does posit that anti-matter can be viewed as time-reversed matter, su3su2u1 has a nice writeup. Generally this due to an underlying CP symmetry. Specifically, time reversal is implied by the underlying charge conjugation parity symmetry--matter and mirror-image (parity reversed) anti-matter should behave identically. CP symmetry appears to hold for the strong force, though exactly WHY remains an open problem.
However CP symmetry violations , and therefore time reversal violations, have been experimentally demonstrated in some kaons and mesons, most notably in the Nobel winning work by Cronin and Fitch. The recent BaBar experiments clearly identify time reversal violations in B mesons and anti-B mesons. Given the CP violations at the electroweak scale and the open Strong CP problem, stating 'time-reversed ordinary matter looks just like antimatter' appears a pedantic excuse to showoff quantum dynamics and anti-matter explosion trivia is not strictly accurate.

Anti-matter explosions - Bad Science

quote:

one kilogram of antimatter encountering one kilogram of matter will annihilate in an explosion equivalent to 43 million tons of TNT

It is true that the energy released from the annihilation of 1kg anti-matter with 1 kg of matter is given by E=mc^2 = 180 petaJoules = 43 megatons TNT equivalent. However, the effect of the actual annihilation explosion will be roughly half the size of 43 million tons TNT exploding, because roughly half of the energy from the anti-matter explosion will be transferred to harmless neutrinos. While electron-positron annihilation does convert the electron/positron mass in gamma rays (well most of the time), most of the mass in the anti-matter consists of anti-neutrons and anti-proton which complicated annihilation reactions producing a delightful variety of subatomic particles and transferring roughly half the annihilation explosion energy to neutrinos, which harmlessly pass through the earth without interacting with anything. A wonderful paper by Borowski examines this in detail analyzing antimatter a potential spaceship fuel.

Explosion blast radius - Bad Science

quote:

I myself weigh 41 kilograms and that the resulting blast [of 41 kg of anti-matter] would leave A GIANT SMOKING CRATER WHERE THERE USED TO BE SCOTLAND
Decidedly exaggerated. Radius of an explosion goes by the fifth root of the energy of an explosion, as G.I. Taylor demonstrated analyzing the Trinity explosion. 1 kg of anti-matter exploding is roughly equivalent to half of the Tsar Bomba explosion, so 41 kg will have a blast radius a little more than twice as wide as Tsar Bomba. To first order this is a 7km fireball and a 70km radius of destruction. Scotland has an area of some 78,000 square km. Note that using 43 Mtons-TNT-equivalent instead of the correct 21.5 Mtons-TNT-equivalent results in just a 14% increase in the expected explosion size.

Anthropic principle - Bad Science

quote:

"And it doesn't, say, create a paradox that destroys the universe."

She smiled tolerantly. "Mr. Potter, I think I'd remember hearing if that had ever happened."

"THAT IS NOT REASSURING! HAVEN'T YOU PEOPLE EVER HEARD OF THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE?
Selection bias is more appropriate, in recent years the strong and weak anthropic principles have become conflated and people continue to redefine the anthropic principle as they see fit. McGonagall's reasoning that timeturners have been safely used in the past should be reassuring.

Turing Computability - Bad Science

quote:

You know right up until this moment I had this awful suppressed thought somewhere in the back of my mind that the only remaining answer was that my whole universe was a computer simulation like in the book Simulacron 3 but now even that is ruled out because this little toy ISN'T TURING COMPUTABLE!
Reality can still be simulated on a computer in a universe with self consistent time travel, as Yud himself points out.

Confirmation Bias - Bad Science

quote:

"SO THAT'S HOW THE COMED-TEA WORKS! Of course! The spell doesn't force funny events to happen, it just makes you feel an impulse to drink right before funny things are going to happen anyway
Harry still appears to be suffering from confirmation bias in his 'experiments' with comed-tea. No experiments with negative outcomes have been done as Harry attempts to understand how Comed-tea works despite lecturing Hermione on this very shortcoming in Chapter 8. Remains unclear if this is a literary device or otherwise intentional. Harry's theories of timetravel mechanics are also not tested.



Through Chapter 14: 7/27




EDIT: Updates thanks to Cingulate and Turnicate

i81icu812 fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Jan 5, 2017

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
You're too nice on a few of these.

quote:

the fundamental attribution error is that we explain by permanent, enduring traits what would be better explained by circumstance and context.
To be precise, it is disproportionally blaming OTHER'S behavior on inherent traits rather than circumstance. In contrast, we famously tend to blame our own failings disproportionally on circumstance rather than traits, so saying "we blame stuff on trait rather than circumstance" is getting it about as right as wrong.

quote:

Bayes's Theorem said that any reasonable hypothesis which made it more likely than a thousand-to-one that he'd end up with the brother to the Dark Lord's wand, was going to have an advantage.
Bayes' Theorem describes how we distribute credibility between hypotheses. It says nothing about "reasonable", it does not assign any special importance to "1000 to 1", and it doesn't say anything about what to do with credibility post assignment.
Literally: P(H|D) = P(H) * P(D|H) / P(D)
You can inform a decision rule via Bayes' Theorem, but much of the actual work is still to be done then (e.g., constructing a loss function).

I have no idea about physics.

Cingulate fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Sep 1, 2015

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
Dunno what I'm doing here.

quote:

"If the Dark Lord survived, then sure, he's the most likely suspect for the Azkaban breakout," Harry said reasonably. "You could even say that the Azkaban breakout is Bayesian evidence for the Dark Lord surviving, because an Azkaban breakout is more likely to happen in worlds where he's alive than worlds where he's dead. But it's not strong Bayesian evidence. It's not something that can't possibly happen unless the Dark Lord is alive. Professor Quirrell, who didn't start from the assumption that You-Know-Who was still around, had no trouble thinking of his own explanation. To him, it was obvious that some powerful wizard might want Bellatrix Black because she knew a secret of the Dark Lord's, like some of his magical knowledge that he'd told to only her. The priors against (I think he means "for" or "on") anyone surviving their body's death are very low, even if it's magically possible. Most times it doesn't happen. So if it's just the Azkaban breakout... I'd have to say formally that it isn't enough Bayesian evidence. The improbability of the evidence assuming that the hypothesis is false, is not commensurate with the prior improbability of the hypothesis."
Let that sink in. Do you find this easy to understand? I don't. I certainly can cite Bayes' Theorem from memory, and I'm running Bayesian models every day probably more complex than anything Yud will ever do, but I found this one hard to understand. Well, one reason this is hard to understand is because from what I can tell, Yud jumps between 3 different understandings of "(Bayesian) evidence": marginal likelihood; Bayes Factors; data.
(Consider: evidence in the sense of likelihood is your best guess for the first mention, and the most common meaning of the term in the Bayesian literature. But at the end, evidence has a probability, and is discussed as being conditional on a hypothesis. (Marginal) Likelihood doesn't have a probability. Data does have a probability though. But data doesn't work for the earlier mentions - likelihood and Bayes Factors do.

The alternative is that Yud means one thing by evidence, and another thing by Bayesian evidence, in which case, dude, gently caress you.)

Also, this is from a chapter on multiple hypothesis testing, but from what I can tell, it does not, in fact, discuss multiple hypothesis testing.

I also finally found a bit of brain science. Turns out it's wrong!

quote:

And the real eraser wasn't like the picture Harry's brain had of it. The idea of the eraser as a solid object was something that existed only inside his own brain, inside the parietal cortex that processed his sense of shape and space.
In fact, the parietal cortex (or rather, the dorsal stream) is famously relevant for figuring out where stuff is and/or what you can do with stuff; in contrast, object recognition is part of the inferior temporal and temporo-occipital cortices (or rather, the ventral stream). Yud/Harry knows this factoid that the parietal cortex is partially about "where", from which he intuits that it's then also about the shape and spatial coherence of objects, and recognizing objects as such; which is, admittedly counterintuitively, wrong.

This is a good example of why you should, if science is available, go for science rather than your intuitions, even if you're super smart.

quote:

And by similar logic: The words a wizard spoke, the wand movements, those weren't complicated enough of themselves to build up the spell effects from scratch - not the way that the three billion base pairs of human DNA actually were complicated enough to build a human body from scratch, not the way that computer programs took up thousands of bytes of data.
That's a pretty small computer program.

quote:

Harry shook his head at that. "The problem isn't that you're ignorant of specific science things like deoxyribonucleic acid. That wouldn't stop you from being my equal. The problem is that you aren't trained in the methods of rationality, the deeper secret knowledge behind how all those discoveries got made in the first place. I'll try to teach you those, but they're a lot harder to learn. Think of what we did yesterday, Draco. Yes, you did some of the work. But I was the only one in control. You answered some of the questions. I asked all of them. You helped push. I did the steering by myself. And without the methods of rationality, Draco, you can't possibly steer the Conspiracy where it needs to go."
In reality, none of this is a secret. The scientific method is not a secret. The Planning Fallacy is not a secret. Rationality is not a secret. In fact, every scientist has been trying to push their discoveries into the mainstream since forever.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Cingulate posted:

Dunno what I'm doing here.
Let that sink in. Do you find this easy to understand? I don't. I certainly can cite Bayes' Theorem from memory, and I'm running Bayesian models every day probably more complex than anything Yud will ever do, but I found this one hard to understand. Well, one reason this is hard to understand is because from what I can tell, Yud jumps between 3 different understandings of "(Bayesian) evidence": marginal likelihood; Bayes Factors; data.
(Consider: evidence in the sense of likelihood is your best guess for the first mention, and the most common meaning of the term in the Bayesian literature. But at the end, evidence has a probability, and is discussed as being conditional on a hypothesis. (Marginal) Likelihood doesn't have a probability. Data does have a probability though. But data doesn't work for the earlier mentions - likelihood and Bayes Factors do.

The alternative is that Yud means one thing by evidence, and another thing by Bayesian evidence, in which case, dude, gently caress you.)

Also, this is from a chapter on multiple hypothesis testing, but from what I can tell, it does not, in fact, discuss multiple hypothesis testing.

I also finally found a bit of brain science. Turns out it's wrong!
In fact, the parietal cortex (or rather, the dorsal stream) is famously relevant for figuring out where stuff is and/or what you can do with stuff; in contrast, object recognition is part of the inferior temporal and temporo-occipital cortices (or rather, the ventral stream). Yud/Harry knows this factoid that the parietal cortex is partially about "where", from which he intuits that it's then also about the shape and spatial coherence of objects, and recognizing objects as such; which is, admittedly counterintuitively, wrong.

This is a good example of why you should, if science is available, go for science rather than your intuitions, even if you're super smart.
That's a pretty small computer program.
In reality, none of this is a secret. The scientific method is not a secret. The Planning Fallacy is not a secret. Rationality is not a secret. In fact, every scientist has been trying to push their discoveries into the mainstream since forever.

To be completely fair to a story that deserves little fairness, isn't the whole point there that Harry's trying to market science in a way that appeals to a Slytherin? Secret, hidden knowledge is basically catnip to wizards.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

Darth Walrus posted:

To be completely fair to a story that deserves little fairness, isn't the whole point there that Harry's trying to market science in a way that appeals to a Slytherin? Secret, hidden knowledge is basically catnip to wizards.
That is entirely possible, but for learning any of that, one would have to be sufficiently insane to actually read this pile of poo poo.

anilEhilated
Feb 17, 2014

But I say fuck the rain.

Grimey Drawer
It's, sadly, also consistent with the constantly emerging image of Yud as a vaguely science-themed cult leader.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

quote:

one kilogram of antimatter encountering one kilogram of matter will annihilate in an explosion equivalent to 43 million tons of TNT

Yes. Expected yield per e=mc^2.
Doublecheck that - antimatter detonations lose half the energy to neutrinos.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Darth Walrus posted:

To be completely fair to a story that deserves little fairness, isn't the whole point there that Harry's trying to market science in a way that appeals to a Slytherin? Secret, hidden knowledge is basically catnip to wizards.

Were it not for all his other writings I would give it the benefit of this doubt, but no, Harry is also pretty clear later on this is how science should be done, too. One of the big themes of this story is that intellectual pursuits are A: The only thing that matters at all (and only in STEM-ish fields through a hollywood view) and B: An inherently elite pursuit whose gifted practitioners are the only ones wise enough to use or benefit from, and who must keep these things secret from the foolish morlocks and hufflepuffs who would abuse them.

my dad
Oct 17, 2012

this shall be humorous

Tunicate posted:

Doublecheck that - antimatter detonations lose half the energy to neutrinos.

Huh. Didn't know that. Cool.

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

It comes up now and again in his other writing. Eliezer really loves the idea that science should be a super-secret mystery cult. Apparently it would make everyone respect it much more. (And it wouldn't slow down progress, because apparently a Rationalist Bayes-fu Master could invent relativity in a couple of weeks)

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Qwertycoatl posted:

It comes up now and again in his other writing. Eliezer really loves the idea that science should be a super-secret mystery cult. Apparently it would make everyone respect it much more. (And it wouldn't slow down progress, because apparently a Rationalist Bayes-fu Master could invent relativity in a couple of weeks)
It's funny isn't it how all these people's visions of society tend to put themselves or people in their fields in charge? I mean the only ideology I can think of where it isn't explicit is various strains of Marxism and even there it did happen in practice. But at least they weren't advertising it as a loving feature

my dad
Oct 17, 2012

this shall be humorous

Nessus posted:

It's funny isn't it how all these people's visions of society tend to put themselves or people in their fields in charge?

A proud philosophical tradition, with roots stretching all the way back to Plato. :v:

Karia
Mar 27, 2013

Self-portrait, Snake on a Plane
Oil painting, c. 1482-1484
Leonardo DaVinci (1452-1591)

Y'know, I actually thoroughly enjoyed reading this for a while. Never finished since other stuff came up in life. So it's something of a shock to me to encounter this thread and realize "Holy gently caress, the author was serious." It seemed like such a perfect mockery of... I'm not totally sure, but it never actually occurred to me that it wasn't satire.

my dad
Oct 17, 2012

this shall be humorous

Karia posted:

Y'know, I actually thoroughly enjoyed reading this for a while. Never finished since other stuff came up in life. So it's something of a shock to me to encounter this thread and realize "Holy gently caress, the author was serious." It seemed like such a perfect mockery of... I'm not totally sure, but it never actually occurred to me that it wasn't satire.

Battlefield Earth felt the same way to me. It wasn't until I first heard about Scientologists that I realized the writer was being serious.

You know, there's quite a bit of similarity between Yud and Ron Hubbard. Or, I guess, any other cult of the writer egomaniac.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



my dad posted:

Battlefield Earth felt the same way to me. It wasn't until I first heard about Scientologists that I realized the writer was being serious.

You know, there's quite a bit of similarity between Yud and Ron Hubbard. Or, I guess, any other cult of the writer egomaniac.
I dunno, L. Ron nearly started a war with Mexico and was at least a world traveller type. If I had to hang out with one for a day I'd definitely pick Source.

i81icu812
Dec 5, 2006

Tunicate posted:

quote:

one kilogram of antimatter encountering one kilogram of matter will annihilate in an explosion equivalent to 43 million tons of TNT
Doublecheck that - antimatter detonations lose half the energy to neutrinos.

Good catch!

You're right, we can't treat that as a simple electron - positron annihilation. A lot of that energy becomes harmless neutrinos. Strictly speaking the energy released is 43 Mtons TNT equivalent, but the actual equivalent explosion effectively halved due to the neutrinos released.

https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1v1783/would_matterantimatter_annihilation_be_any/

And a fascinating 100 page paper on the weirdness of N-anti-N annihilation http://arxiv.org/pdf/hep-ex/0501020v1.pdf


As before, in the spirit of nitpicking any and all corrections, comments, and criticism is welcome.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Nessus posted:

I dunno, L. Ron nearly started a war with Mexico and was at least a world traveller type. If I had to hang out with one for a day I'd definitely pick Source.

On the other hand, there is a small possibility he might decide to free your thetan by administering Process R2-45. Worst Yudkowsky would likely do is try to get you to drink Soylent.

i81icu812
Dec 5, 2006

Cingulate posted:

You're too nice on a few of these.
To be precise, it is disproportionally blaming OTHER'S behavior on inherent traits rather than circumstance. In contrast, we famously tend to blame our own failings disproportionally on circumstance rather than traits, so saying "we blame stuff on trait rather than circumstance" is getting it about as right as wrong.
Bayes' Theorem describes how we distribute credibility between hypotheses. It says nothing about "reasonable", it does not assign any special importance to "1000 to 1", and it doesn't say anything about what to do with credibility post assignment.
Literally: P(H|D) = P(H) * P(D|H) / P(D)
You can inform a decision rule via Bayes' Theorem, but much of the actual work is still to be done then (e.g., constructing a loss function).

I have no idea about physics.

Possibly I am being too nice. The section of the fundamental attribution error did give a proper example that I didn't quote even if the definition was wrong.

Likewise for Bayes'. The expanded quote has more background that generally makes it somewhat better and explains the '1000 to 1'. It's still not good. But better. I've updated both quotes.

I am going through this along with our esteemed guide and host JWKS, so I haven't gotten to the later sections. I do appreciate any and all contributions, but I'll probably refrain from updating the list till the thread gets there.


Also I would note there hasn't been any science correctly used since Chapter 8. And there have been zero instances of unambiguously correct hard science in the first 14 chapters. Overall Yud is batting 7/27.

i81icu812 fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Sep 2, 2015

JosephWongKS
Apr 4, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Chapter 15: Conscientiousness
Part Four


quote:


Several students gulped.

Professor McGonagall stood up and moved over to the wall behind her desk, which held a polished wooden board. "There are many reasons why Transfiguration is dangerous, but one reason stands above all the rest." She produced a short quill with a thick end, and used it to sketch letters in red; which she then underlined, using the same marker, in blue:

TRANSFIGURATION IS NOT PERMANENT!

"Transfiguration is not permanent!" said Professor McGonagall. "Transfiguration is not permanent! Transfiguration is not permanent! Mr. Potter, suppose a student Transfigured a block of wood into a cup of water, and you drank it. What do you imagine might happen to you when the Transfiguration wore off?" There was a pause. "Excuse me, I should not have asked that of you, Mr. Potter, I forgot that you are blessed with an unusually pessimistic imagination -"

"I'm fine," Harry said, swallowing hard. "So the first answer is that I don't know," the Professor nodded approvingly, "but I imagine there might be... wood in my stomach, and in my bloodstream, and if any of that water had gotten absorbed into my body's tissues - would it be wood pulp or solid wood or..." Harry's grasp of magic failed him. He couldn't understand how wood mapped into water in the first place, so he couldn't understand what would happen after the water molecules were scrambled by ordinary thermal motions and the magic wore off and the mapping reversed.

McGonagall's face was stiff. "As Mr. Potter has correctly reasoned, he would become extremely sick and require immediate Flooing to St. Mungo's Hospital if he was to have any chance of survival. Please turn your textbooks to page 5."


Transfiguration being easy enough to be learned by first-year students and at the same time so highly lethal, is like the equivalent of having everyone in our world of elementary school age and above being able to create IEDs out of anything. Wizards should be far, far more paranoid about everything around them than they’ve been seen to be so far in this story.


quote:


Even without any sound in the moving picture, you could tell that the woman with horribly discolored skin was screaming.

"The criminal who originally Transfigured gold into wine and gave it to this woman to drink, 'in payment of the debt' as he put it, received a sentence of ten years in Azkaban. Please turn to page 6. That is a Dementor. They are the guardians of Azkaban. They suck away at your magic, your life, and any happy thoughts you try to have. The picture on page 7 is of the criminal ten years later, on his release. You will note that he is dead - yes, Mr. Potter?"

"Professor," Harry said, "if the worst happens in a case like that, is there any way of maintaining the Transfiguration?"


"No," Professor McGonagall said flatly. "Sustaining a Transfiguration is a constant drain on your magic which scales with the size of the target form. And you would need to recontact the target every few hours, which is, in a case like this, impossible. Disasters like this are unrecoverable! "


Exactly my point. If Transfiguration really worked as described in this chapter, you literally can’t trust anything you eat or drink once it’s been within reach of another wizard. Each wizard should be a lot more isolated and a lot less willing to live, study, travel, work, or otherwise interact with other wizards than they’ve been shown to be in this story.

divabot
Jun 17, 2015

A polite little mouse!

Nessus posted:

I dunno, L. Ron nearly started a war with Mexico and was at least a world traveller type. If I had to hang out with one for a day I'd definitely pick Source.

"Where has all the rum gone?" At least Ron would bring the drink. He had a well-documented and consistent rep as a party dude, particularly if he thought you'd understand why starting Scientology was inherently funny. It's pretty clear Mr Yudkowsky doesn't.

divabot fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Sep 2, 2015

Dabir
Nov 10, 2012

Why isn't she using chalk on a blackboard?

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
Part of this I actually like, because it looks at magic using magic's rules without getting lost in pseudo-scientific rants about conservation of energy, and comes up with something that's fairly interesting. Plus, McGonagall has a pretty good attitude towards Harry throughout, which is "magic is some serious poo poo, Mr. Potter, so I'll be damned if I'm going to let you waltz in here and gently caress things up because you're too dumb to know better". The danger inherent in kids learning about this stuff so early is pretty much just handwaved away, though.

Seraphic Neoman
Jul 19, 2011


Was Transfiguration permanent in the original story? I don't remember Rowling going too in-depth about it.

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

JosephWongKS posted:

Harry would make a terrible lawyer. Excessive verbiage arouses suspicion in the counterparty and costs everyone time in the search for loopholes arising from such suspicion. Good lawyers only use as many words as necessary – in this case, a “I’m not planning to go through your things” would have sufficed.

I know it's from a while back, but I am so loving pissed of by the part that this is referencing that I feel the need to post about it. We have to remember that whenever Harry says anything in this story it is actually Big Yud saying it, and that whenever anybody says anything about Harry it is actually Yud describing himself in ways he wouldn't dare to do so as the narrator.

This on itself is hosed up enough. This is like if a novelist made one of the characters in a novel a writer, and then put a chapter in the novel that is something the writer character wrote, and then had every other character say how great it is. It is arrogant and masturbatory. It is singing your own praises by making up an entirely new person to do it for you. You could do that with anything really, make a character that shares an attribute with the writer and then explains how great the character is because of it.

Except Big Yud is not a lawyer. All this time we have been giving him poo poo about being a fake scientist and we missed a prime loving opportunity to point out something even sadder: it does not start or end with that. Big Yud has another character point out that Harry could be a great lawyer because he believes he could be a great lawyer. And how could that not be, really? He watched a full episode of law and order once, so he clearly know what he is talking about.

And it's not just a coincidence; it's the same pattern. He could be a great lawyer, sure, if he weren't so lazy. And if he had an education, of course, but his superior rational brain makes that completely unnecessary. He does not need to go to school or get prepared to work at a job or at a career in any way, because he can literally do anything because he is smart enought to completely go around the entire system.

loving hell I hate Yud so loving much.

Eighties ZomCom
Sep 10, 2008




SSNeoman posted:

Was Transfiguration permanent in the original story? I don't remember Rowling going too in-depth about it.

I think so. It also wasn't anywhere near as dangerous as Yud is making it out to be. And IIRC food and drink was one of three things that couldn't be transfigured into so the whole eating/ drinking something that was originally a tree is something he made up as well.

90s Cringe Rock
Nov 29, 2006
:gay:
Someone suggested that he was making it out to be dangerous to justify his amazing scientific carbon nanotube decapitation loops in the ending, but that has nothing to do with this. I think it's just bad fanon he picked up from reading more fanfiction than actual Rowling.

Edit: I forgot, he also uses it to set Harry up as being able to maintain pure rational focus even while he sleeps, just like the characters in his animes.

Zonekeeper
Oct 27, 2007



EvilTaytoMan posted:

I think so. It also wasn't anywhere near as dangerous as Yud is making it out to be. And IIRC food and drink was one of three things that couldn't be transfigured into so the whole eating/ drinking something that was originally a tree is something he made up as well.

I don't think that was established until the later books. According to somebody earlier in the thread, Yud decided he was too good to read past book 5 and decided he had read enough HP fanfics that he had a good enough handle on the series' plot to "parody" it. I think even his fans were pissed off when he got details of Snape and Lily's relationship wrong because of this.

Mazzletoff
Dec 17, 2012

wake me up
before you jojo

SSNeoman posted:

Was Transfiguration permanent in the original story? I don't remember Rowling going too in-depth about it.

Sort of? Like, it could be removed, but according to Book 1 the tail Dudley was given had to be removed at a hospital - meaning that Transfiguration can be removed by wizards, making it good for pranks, but it sure as poo poo isn't as dangerous as Yud wants it to be. Who would teach children how to literally murder people by mistake?

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Mazzletoff posted:

Sort of? Like, it could be removed, but according to Book 1 the tail Dudley was given had to be removed at a hospital - meaning that Transfiguration can be removed by wizards, making it good for pranks, but it sure as poo poo isn't as dangerous as Yud wants it to be. Who would teach children how to literally murder people by mistake?

Well, except for Hagrid, although he's kind of a special case. And then there were some of the plants they encountered in Herbology, which I seem to recall ranging from 'incapacitating' to 'ludicrously deadly'. Some of the failed experiments in the Potions class got pretty spectacular, too - melting cauldrons were something of a running gag.

Hogwarts is something of a deathtrap - it's just that Transfiguration is one of the less lethal classes.

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

Mazzletoff posted:

Sort of? Like, it could be removed, but according to Book 1 the tail Dudley was given had to be removed at a hospital - meaning that Transfiguration can be removed by wizards, making it good for pranks, but it sure as poo poo isn't as dangerous as Yud wants it to be. Who would teach children how to literally murder people by mistake?

Snape? I mean he did do exactly that in Half Blood Prince



Over at Tor.com they have been doing a Harry Potter reread and one of the points raised is that wizards can repair almost any physical damage and between various charms deal with almost any mental trauma. Which goes a long way towards explaining why they are so comfortable teaching dangerous stuff to kids and so casual about wanton destruction and pain.

Fried Chicken fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Sep 2, 2015

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
To play devil's advocate, maybe transfiguration is like one of those things where if you don't teach kids to be careful with it, they're going to hear about it anyway from older people and then try it out themselves with catastrophic results. I mean, I don't think that's what Yud is going for - the story explicitly says they do it so the kids will reach their full potential using it or whatever - but it makes a little sense, I guess.

Eighties ZomCom
Sep 10, 2008




Hyper Crab Tank posted:

To play devil's advocate, maybe transfiguration is like one of those things where if you don't teach kids to be careful with it, they're going to hear about it anyway from older people and then try it out themselves with catastrophic results. I mean, I don't think that's what Yud is going for - the story explicitly says they do it so the kids will reach their full potential using it or whatever - but it makes a little sense, I guess.

But you could say that for all magic in HP though.

i81icu812
Dec 5, 2006
So this section is frustrating. This is the first real magic-as-science-opportunity in the story! Opportunity to establish and explore rules to examine in interesting ways! But the execution is just so bad. Let's look at the science here, such as it is.

Thing are transfigured into other things with roughly the same volume (desk-pig, block of wood-cup of water, canon books)
Transfiguring a bunch of loosely packed molecules to tightly packed molecules and vice versa does not result in an explosion or implosion from steric mismatches or other molecular forces


Unfortunately we don't have a mapping of how one chunk of anything transfigures into a chunk of anything else. One for one molecule swap? A scaled duplicate copy of the original? A brand new copy each time the transfigured item splits? Of course there's no conservation laws that are being followed that we know of, so the mapping is tricky. Would be fun for an author to explore! Unfortunately, Yud's examples are terrible.




Under the assumption that transfiguration replaces molecules one for one, let's look at drinking a glass of something transfigured. Water will be absorbed into your bloodstream within minutes of drinking, and will persist in your body over the course of a couple of weeks. A single 200mL glass of water is a fraction of a percent of the overall water volume of a person and will rapidly diffuse throughout your body and into your cells.

So what happens if the water suddenly transformed into wood? Assuming magic smooths over the transition effects, and that the water molecules transform into individual molecules of wood, you will probably be fine. Wood is organic, mostly long chains of polysaccharides that are present in your cells anyway, and can be easily broken down by your cells.

How about gold? Again, assuming magic smooths over the transition and you get individual molecular replacement you'll likely be okay. Gold is a noble metal and is inert to most chemical reactions. Atomic gold will not react with the hydrochloric acid in your stomach or with anything else in your digestive system and is a FDA approved safe food additive. Water chemistry is not exactly my specialty, but I'm fairly sure that atomic gold will be more or less ignored by your body in small doses like this.

Let's say I'm wrong. Worst case is that the gold somehow ionizes in your body and you now have a bunch of gold ions in your blood. In all likelihood the percursers for the the gold ions were also toxic and liable to kill you (fun stuff like aqua regia, rubidium, cesium, or potassium cyanide). However if your only problem is gold ions (say you drank a solution of ionic gold chloride transfigured into water) you are now poisoned by the gold ions moving in and reacting with your blood/cells and will suffer hyperacute liver and kidney failure in short order. While you will suffer jaundice and skin discoloration, you will also likely NOT be screaming out pain, or suffering overly much from pain at all. If anything you'll be too weak for much screaming. Or in a coma.


Since Yud is making up the rules of transfiguration magic, I'm sure there is some way to ensure that drinking a glass of wood or gold could be made to kill you. But there just isn't enough here to actually understand the system to assess this passage. Or make any remarks about science at all. What is there to notate, that water diffuses through your blood into your cells?



Of course I'm sure this will be revisited in a later section and be better fleshed out...........

i81icu812 fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Sep 4, 2015

Zonekeeper
Oct 27, 2007



Most of the dangers being mentioned involve edibles, and according to the Harry Potter Wiki there are no examples in the books of anyone transfiguring something into an edible/drinkable item. Turning inanimate objects to animals is common, but I'm guessing those revert to their original form upon death, which prevents slaughtering them for meat. It's entirely possible that Gamp's Law of Elemental Transfiguration involves preventing such transfigurations from happening. It's mentioned that food can't be conjured (conjuration being a type of transfiguration, the opposite of vanishing), so the restriction probably extends to transfiguration of things into food in general.

While both water and wine get conjured a lot, and I'm sure there are spells to turn one into the other, there are no examples of turning drinkable liquids into anything other than another drinkable liquid.

Not that Yud would know any of this as Gamp's Law was first mentioned in Book 7 and he admittedly never read it.

Zonekeeper fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Sep 3, 2015

Dabir
Nov 10, 2012

What Yudkowsky, who doesn't know how anything works, imagines to happen, is that all your cells will suddenly be filled with molten gold. Which would be gruesome if it worked, but it doesn't.

God dammit SMBC.

Vateke
Jun 29, 2010
The Arithmancer is so much better at science than HPMOR.

JosephWongKS
Apr 4, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Chapter 15: Conscientiousness
Part Five


quote:


Professor McGonagall leaned forwards, her face very hard. "You will absolutely never under any circumstances Transfigure anything into a liquid or a gas. No water, no air. Nothing like water, nothing like air. Even if it is not meant to drink. Liquid evaporates, little bits and pieces of it get into the air. You will not Transfigure anything that is to be burned. It will make smoke and someone could breathe that smoke! You will never Transfigure anything that could conceivably go inside anyone's body by any means. No food. Nothing that looks like food. Not even as a funny little prank where you mean to tell them about your mud pie before they actually eat it. You will never do it. Period. Inside this classroom or out of it or anywhere. Is that well understood by every single student? "


If Transfiguration is truly that dangerous in this world, why would you even teach Transfiguration to children? You can give them all the sternly worded warnings you like, but they are still, you know, children. Driving is far less dangerous than Eliezer’s take on Transfiguration but we still don’t let little kids drive.


quote:


"Yes," said Harry, Hermione, and a few others. The rest seemed to be speechless.

"Is that well understood by every single student? "

"Yes," they said or muttered or whispered.

"If you break any of these rules you will not further study Transfiguration during your stay at Hogwarts. Repeat along with me. I will never Transfigure anything into a liquid or gas."

"I will never Transfigure anything into a liquid or gas," said the students in ragged chorus.

"Again! Louder! I will never Transfigure anything into a liquid or gas."

"I will never Transfigure anything into a liquid or gas."


I’m surprised Eliezarry hasn’t internally noted that this doesn’t prohibit Transfiguring things into a plasma.


quote:


"I will never Transfigure anything that looks like food or anything else that goes inside a human body."

"I will never Transfigure anything that is to be burned because it could make smoke."

"You will never Transfigure anything that looks like money, including Muggle money," said Professor McGonagall. "The goblins have ways of finding out who did it. As a matter of recognised law, the goblin nation is in a permanent state of war with all magical counterfeiters. They will not send Aurors. They will send an army."

"I will never Transfigure anything that looks like money," repeated the students.


Does this include precious metals like gold and silver, or other valuables like gemstones?


quote:


"And above all," said Professor McGonagall, "you will not Transfigure any living subject, especially yourselves. It will make you very sick and possibly dead, depending on how you Transfigure yourself and how long you maintain the change."


McGonagall has just doomed one or more of her students. Chekov’s Gun all but demands that one of them will transfigure himself or herself.

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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



So what the gently caress can you use this stupid dire doomspell for, then? I mean Jesus.

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