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Dandy Kaiser posted:I think re: Seattle, the thing to glean there is that you should never waste a pick outside of the last two rounds on a defense. As far as Washington goes, they There will be significantly better streamable options than Minnesota vs Detroit, SD, Denver, KC, Detroit, Chicago (probably, but I think you're right that Chicago will be bad), GB, Atlanta, Seattle, and Arizona. I don't think you should bank on any team having the kind of production as the Eagles had last year, as it seems too flukey to count on (though Philly kept it up for a long time so I know flukey isn't exactly the right word for it!). Anyway, my point at listing individual games where bad offenses gave up big games was to show that they weren't bad offenses because they got beat up by good defenses exclusively, and fared ok against bad defenses. Bad offenses gave up big games to all kinds of opposing DSTs. When I said the average points against Jax, Washington, and St. Louis was so much higher than whatever good defenses' average scoring was, you could have countered by saying maybe the good defenses pounded them for tons of points. But that wasn't the case. Bad offenses gave up fantastic weeks to bad defenses. Dandy Kaiser posted:As far as the Colts and Cowboys go, the game scripts could've predicted those. You know that Luck/Romo would have them up early forcing one of the most disfucntional passing offenses and questionable O-Lines to have to air it out for 45 minutes. I don't think correlation equals causation there, either. This is the entire point, haha. Of course the Colts and Cowboys DSTs didn't score well because they had good real life defenses, they scored well because the quality of the real life defense is not the biggest factor in determining DST scoring!  I am not arguing they have good real life defenses because their DSTs score well. I'm arguing that bad real life defenses can be great DST plays all the time.
sourdough fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Sep 7, 2015 |
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Sep 7, 2015 16:12
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So after giving up on Perriman a few days ago, I picked him back up and dropped Kyle Rudolph.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:15
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ZIGfried posted:I drafted Antonio Gates and need a TE for the first four weeks. Should Gates be the drop or what are people thinking he'll do when he's back. keep gates. despite his age he'll still get a lot of redzone looks. you could be like me and draft julius thomas AND gates (knowing gates was suspended) 
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Sep 7, 2015 16:17
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Ty1990 posted:I should probably start Sam Bradford over Cam Newton at least the first week or two right? Bradford has a ton of really nice games this year, especially in the first half. I'd plan on starting him over Newton most of the time, honestly.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:19
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Bellmaker posted:Need to pick up a kicker. Drop Decker or Quick? 0.5 PPR Test the waters to see if you can trade Quick or Decker plus another player to upgrade at a position. If you drop Quick, he will get snapped up by another team guaranteed, may as well see if you can get some value out of him before dropping.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:26
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MacheteZombie posted:So after giving up on Perriman a few days ago, I picked him back up and dropped Kyle Rudolph. Sprained PCLs have a recovery time of 2-6 weeks, usually, and Perriman got hurt on July 31. So there's a chance he could be healthy week 1 (though without reps, I can't imagine that he'll be particularly effective, and may not even play the majority of snaps that game). Still think he finishes top 5 among ppr rookies though. Smith can carry the load for a while but Perriman was drafted to be the WR1, and a sprained PCL a month and a half before the season starts isn't a reason to think he' can't be.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:28
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I'm all about streaming defenses and not looking into the tea leaves too much, but when you have a team with that perfect storm of variables and a juicy week one matchup, they're going to be on my radar 10/10 times. I do think that you're reading a little too far into the effect of a "bad defense vs. bad offense" narrative. Some of those teams that you're citing as being "bad" actually put up some very viable fantasy seasons. TB was #3 in sacks last year, #2 in INT, and #5 in FF; Dallas was #2 in turnovers; Indy was #1 in FF and FRec and #11 in passing (which is really impressive considering they should for all intents and purposes have been playing in a ton of shootouts); St Louis was a top-half defense in rushing and PTS/G and #8 in sacks. Sure a bad defense could do well against a poor offense, but my original point of the fact that they're just as likely to not do well is reason enough to avoid those matchups in all but the biggest of leagues. I would really need to see more than just one year's of evidence to claim that it's a viable strategy, put past anecdotal evidence seems that it's a dart-throw at best to start a bottom-third defense against one of the 3 worst offenses.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:29
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I drafted the Colts D because of that soft opening schedule, but Carolina is sitting on the waiver wire with a matchup against Jacksonville and then Houston. They're also the better real life defense - should I make the swap and then just reevaluate come Week 3? The Colts might still be there for me to pick up again. On another note, I've got to drop someone for a kicker in my 14 team, 2 flex, 0.5 PPR, 0.125 pts/yard rushing league (plus a point for every rushing first down). QB: Peyton RB: CJA, Ingram, Hyde, Sankey, David Johnson WR: Cobb, Allen Robinson, Garcon, Coleman, Baldwin TE: Eifert Loaded up on RBs due to the inflated scoring, but I'm thinking either Sankey or Baldwin. Can't see myself ever being comfortable starting Sankey. Who's the drop?
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Sep 7, 2015 16:33
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I have the Panthers defense because of those first two games. I'd go with them.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:37
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Forever_Peace posted:Sprained PCLs have a recovery time of 2-6 weeks, usually, and Perriman got hurt on July 31. So there's a chance he could be healthy week 1 (though without reps, I can't imagine that he'll be particularly effective, and may not even play the majority of snaps that game). Thanks for the re-assurance. By Dropping Rudolph I'm left with Martellus. Am I over thinking trying to find an upgrade/TE2 to roster? I'm not a fan of the Bears, but Martellus has been good for fantasy. Top Available according to FantasyPros: Larry Donnell, NYG Heath Miller, PIT Owen Daniels, DEN Kyle Rudolph, MIN Ladarius Green, SD
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Sep 7, 2015 16:41
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Gobias Ind. posted:I drafted the Colts D because of that soft opening schedule, but Carolina is sitting on the waiver wire with a matchup against Jacksonville and then Houston. They're also the better real life defense - should I make the swap and then just reevaluate come Week 3? The Colts might still be there for me to pick up again. Find a really RB needy team. There are bound to be some in a 14 teamer. Offer Sankey plus A WR to try and upgrade one of your WRs. Its not a great time to sell Sankey but you may find somebody desperate enough for RBs.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:46
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Some of those teams that you're citing as being "bad" actually put up some very viable fantasy seasons. TB was #3 in sacks last year, #2 in INT, and #5 in FF; Dallas was #2 in turnovers; Indy was #1 in FF and FRec and #11 in passing (which is really impressive considering they should for all intents and purposes have been playing in a ton of shootouts); St Louis was a top-half defense in rushing and PTS/G and #8 in sacks. I cited them as bad because they're bad real life defenses, and you said you should not start a bad real life defense. If that wasn't what you meant, then I think we're in total agreement. And like I said, I definitely agree Minnesota against SF week 1 is juicier than Indy against Buffalo, Indy just won't be a bad play either. Gobias Ind. posted:I drafted the Colts D because of that soft opening schedule, but Carolina is sitting on the waiver wire with a matchup against Jacksonville and then Houston. They're also the better real life defense - should I make the swap and then just reevaluate come Week 3? The Colts might still be there for me to pick up again. I'd prefer Carolina to Indy week 1 and likely week 2, but weeks 3 and 4 Colts should be one of the top options. It's probably worth dropping Indy and hoping to pick them up then, though. Definitely drop Baldwin.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:50
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Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter 3m Patriots signed WR Kenbrell Thompkins to their practice squad. this is the year for kenbrell thompkins
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Sep 7, 2015 17:26
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MacheteZombie posted:Thanks for the re-assurance. Bennett is better than all those options. He'll put up points this season. Only one of those options that comes close is Daniels because of the Kubiak factor and Peyton likes to throw to TEs. I'm not sold as he's burned me many times. He can't stay healthy.
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Sep 7, 2015 17:34
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MacheteZombie posted:Thanks for the re-assurance.
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Sep 7, 2015 17:37
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Poonerman posted:Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter 3m I was so happy for him after the TD catch against the Saints a couple years ago, even had him in my lineup that week! Shame he hasn't done much since then, but still, not bad for a UDFA.
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Sep 7, 2015 17:39
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RVProfootballer posted:There will be significantly better streamable options than Minnesota vs Detroit, SD, Denver, KC, Detroit, Chicago (probably, but I think you're right that Chicago will be bad), GB, Atlanta, Seattle, and Arizona. I don't think you should bank on any team having the kind of production as the Eagles had last year, as it seems too flukey to count on (though Philly kept it up for a long time so I know flukey isn't exactly the right word for it!).
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Sep 7, 2015 17:42
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Forever_Peace posted:Sprained PCLs have a recovery time of 2-6 weeks, usually, and Perriman got hurt on July 31. So there's a chance he could be healthy week 1 (though without reps, I can't imagine that he'll be particularly effective, and may not even play the majority of snaps that game). The latest word is that he'll be out until October. Even if he comes back earlier, extremely raw rookie who had zero training camp throws up so many red flags I can't even be bothered with Perriman this year.
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Sep 7, 2015 17:50
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Titans are working out Jonas Gray, lol.
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Sep 7, 2015 17:58
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VietCampo posted:Titans are working out Jonas Gray, lol. God loving dammit
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Sep 7, 2015 18:00
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My TE is ertz--should i drop doug baldwin to get gates or thomas off waivers?
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Sep 7, 2015 18:04
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Butter Hole posted:My TE is ertz--should i drop doug baldwin to get gates or thomas off waivers? Drop Ertz for another TE. He won't play week 1.
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Sep 7, 2015 18:06
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Metapod posted:God loving dammit get wrecked
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Sep 7, 2015 18:07
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Benne posted:The latest word is that he'll be out until October. I've seen 4 different pieces of pertinent info here. On overall recovery time, Jene Bramel said 2-6 weeks, while a bunch of other sports writers that don't have medical degrees have been using a 6-8 week timetable. And on return date, a local beat writer in Baltimore said October return, while Harbough on the same day said week 1 was a possibility (not likely imo). Put that all in a big stew of hot messy speculation, and I'd say week 2-3 return is probable. Missing 1-2 weeks is not a good reason to fade a guy three full rounds (Perriman was going mid 9th not three weeks ago), much less take him off your board entirely. I would easily take Perriman over low ceiling snooze fests like Garcon, Torrey, and Crabtree. I mean, over the past two weeks he's been frequently going behind Reggie Wayne and Montgomery. What?
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Sep 7, 2015 18:20
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Who do I pick up to replace D. Cobb? Matt Jones or Denard Robinson?
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Sep 7, 2015 18:28
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Matt Jones.
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Sep 7, 2015 18:29
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Forever_Peace posted:I've seen 4 different pieces of pertinent info here. On overall recovery time, Jene Bramel said 2-6 weeks, while a bunch of other sports writers that don't have medical degrees have been using a 6-8 week timetable. And on return date, a local beat writer in Baltimore said October return, while Harbough on the same day said week 1 was a possibility (not likely imo). Put that all in a big stew of hot messy speculation, and I'd say week 2-3 return is probable. I'm just not a fan of Perriman, in real life or fantasy. Anyway, Ron Rivera gonna Ron Rivera quote:Kelli Bartik
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Sep 7, 2015 18:46
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Benne posted:I'm just not a fan of Perriman, in real life or fantasy. That's fair. What in particular concerns you? There wasn't a first round receiver in the NFL Draft this year that landed in a better position, and at first glance he has all the skills, college production, and measurables you'd want to see in a receiver...
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Sep 7, 2015 19:01
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Benne posted:Anyway, Ron Rivera gonna Ron Rivera One of those guys is gonna be a sneaky WR4 play in 14+ team return yards leagues
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Sep 7, 2015 19:05
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Zombie Tsunami posted:get wrecked Have I said I hate my team? Because I hate my team
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Sep 7, 2015 19:08
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Holy poo poo someone just accepted my trade offer! I give Brees, I get Brandin Cooks. I already have Wilson so I just wanted to get rid of brees, and I can definitely use a solid WR. Feels like I can out on top but goon validation is always nice. How'd I do?! Probably gonna put cooks in my flex with OBJ + Matthews at WR. Points galore (I hope)! I also have Bradford if he happens to.. not die the first time he gets hit.  (Edit: I should say that this is a standard child's play 8 team league so QB's are pretty readily available. WR's, not so much.) zeldadude fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Sep 7, 2015 |
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Sep 7, 2015 19:34
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Tried to wait and grab Heath Miller in my 14 man league last night, but someone took him two spots ahead of me (as a backup to Greg loving Olsen, drat it). Pickings are super slim, but who do you dislike the least out of: Charles Clay, Ben Watson, Jared Cook or Josh Hill (who I currently own)? I also considered grabbing Clay Harbor for a few weeks and hoping someone drops their backup TE. Who the gently caress drafts a backup TE anyway?
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Sep 7, 2015 19:41
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ESPN went screwy on me while I was drafting and I ended up Carolina's and the Jets' DST. While the Jets would only be playable week 1, I'm tempted to keep them for that home matchup against the Browns. I feel like the Browns are going to be a good streaming D target this season with McCown at the helm and poo poo for offensive talent. I also get the impression that JAX isn't going to be the streaming D target they were last year. While I didn't see any of their preseason, it sounds like Bortles has made pretty big strides this offseason in regards to not taking sacks and throwing better, making better throwing decisions, and throwing less picks, etc. Their receivers are healthy, they got a better back, and the offense should be improved (especially when Orange Julius returns). I don't really know where I'm going with this. Will someone back me up in dropping CAR and keeping NYJ? And who would you grab off the WW: Perriman or Marvin Jones?
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Sep 7, 2015 19:51
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zeldadude posted:Holy poo poo someone just accepted my trade offer! I give Brees, I get Brandin Cooks. I already have Wilson so I just wanted to get rid of brees, and I can definitely use a solid WR. Feels like I can out on top but goon validation is always nice. How'd I do?! was that guy's qb situation a disaster or something?
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Sep 7, 2015 20:00
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Better end-of-bench lottery ticket in 1 PPR: Perriman or DeVante Parker?
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Sep 7, 2015 20:00
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zeldadude posted:Holy poo poo someone just accepted my trade offer! I give Brees, I get Brandin Cooks. I already have Wilson so I just wanted to get rid of brees, and I can definitely use a solid WR. Feels like I can out on top but goon validation is always nice. How'd I do?! Congrats, you robbed him blind Axl Rose posted:Tried to wait and grab Heath Miller in my 14 man league last night, but someone took him two spots ahead of me (as a backup to Greg loving Olsen, drat it). Charles Clay easily has the highest floor and ceiling of those options. Hill and Watson will be a timeshare, Cook is awful, and Clay has at least been a quality fantasy TE before, was paid a ton, and should be the 2nd or 3rd option in the (admittedly poor) passing game behind Watkins and McCoy (when he's healthy). MarquisDeCarabas posted:I don't really know where I'm going with this. Will someone back me up in dropping CAR and keeping NYJ? I think these two DSTs will end up being pretty close week 1. Jags are still going to have trouble scoring TDs, Yeldon has not impressed a whole lot in the preseason, and they're still going to give up a lot of sacks. But the Browns should definitely be more of a trainwreck. Josh McCown is going to be worse than Bortles, in any case. If you're feeling NYJ, I think you should go with them. Perriman has a lot more upside than Jones. Jones isn't going to be fantasy relevant, whereas Perriman at least can be once he gets healthy and starts getting a lot of volume. Chimeric posted:Better end-of-bench lottery ticket in 1 PPR: Perriman or DeVante Parker? I guess you have to go with Perriman here, but not feel great about it. There's a ton of targets up for grabs in Baltimore, which is not at all the case for Parker. But Parker's healthy now and will not drop every third ball thrown to him, and when it comes down to it, only Landry seems really assured of a lot of targets. But I don't think he's going to come close to seeing as many targets as Perriman. sourdough fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Sep 7, 2015 |
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Sep 7, 2015 20:00
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Chimeric posted:Better end-of-bench lottery ticket in 1 PPR: Perriman or DeVante Parker? I'd say Parker because although they are just about equal physically and Perriman theoretically has more opportunity for targets, Parker is a better player and much closer to playing than Perriman.
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Sep 7, 2015 20:04
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TubeStank posted:was that guy's qb situation a disaster or something? He had Matt Ryan  I put in the trade comments "straight upgrade at QB for you and all you lose is a player on your bench! We both win!" Guess it worked lolll
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Sep 7, 2015 20:20
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Vikes are fine against SF for Week 1, but then face a gauntlet: DET, SD, DEN, bye. They should be OK against KC in week 6 Avoid after that: DET, CHI Fine against STL, OAK you get the idea. Either way, I'm rolling with the Chiefs to start the season but will be dropping them right after as they face nearly the same meatgrinder that MIN does.
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Sep 7, 2015 20:24
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All Browns DST all the time IMO
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Sep 7, 2015 21:09
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