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Uncle Wemus posted:Trumps going to win isn't he He's going somewhere
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Sep 12, 2015 02:05
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:which has been done without a single debate, while there had been 10 democratic debates at this point in 2007 I get that mate but it's still weird to be that smooth. Do you have a source?
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Sep 12, 2015 02:07
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Pavlov posted:I get that mate but it's still weird to be that smooth. Do you have a source? from the dude who makes it: quote:Poll numbers are taken from the Huffington Post Pollster API, graph is done in R and the interactive (daily updated) version is hosted on https://www.intuitics.com/app/#app/1052/run/public[1]
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Sep 12, 2015 02:09
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Pavlov posted:How are they getting those popularity numbers? The '16 ones look way too regular. I get the feeling that polling is all completely made up and runs off of how much a cow in Iowa farts when the name Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders is said to it.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:12
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Pavlov posted:How are they getting those popularity numbers? The '16 ones look way too regular. Relatively few polls prior to Spring 2016.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:14
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:
Like i understand you like Sanders but comparing him to Obama is . . . optimistic.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:16
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Pavlov posted:How are they getting those popularity numbers? The '16 ones look way too regular. very few data points until the run up, just drawing linear connections between the ones there.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:16
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Pavlov posted:I get that mate but it's still weird to be that smooth. Do you have a source? They are too smooth, and the start points in June 2014 are too high for Hillary and too low for Bernie: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2058 http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/National-Survey-Toplines-Questions-1-24.pdf http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/...EeOKiuF8CPgIcQ/ The endpoints are reasonable though.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:17
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euphronius posted:Like i understand you like Sanders but comparing him to Obama is . . . optimistic. thinking hillary clinton is gonna win a democratic primary when shes loving horrible at campaigning is p. optimistic as well
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Sep 12, 2015 02:18
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Not this again.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:19
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euphronius posted:Like i understand you like Sanders but comparing him to Obama is . . . optimistic. lol
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Sep 12, 2015 02:20
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TEAYCHES posted:thinking hillary clinton is gonna win a democratic primary when shes loving horrible at campaigning is p. optimistic as well What. What? What criteria of campaigning are you using.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:20
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When is there going to be a Democrat debate
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Sep 12, 2015 02:20
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hes doing better than obama was at this same point in the election against the same opponent, but hm, lets not be too hasty and compare them - The Very Serious People
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Sep 12, 2015 02:22
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euphronius posted:What. What? people dont like her, she comes across as tone deaf in both the macro campaign (she just now apologized for the email thing lmao) and micro (good example of where she gave a stump speech to a bunch of college kids and bombed) also shes a horrific fake and i cant wait to see her fail at securing the nomination a second time in a row
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Sep 12, 2015 02:23
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Ok so the '16 data is being pulled from here: Which seems to check out. I think it just looked weird because the '16 data is using a different kind of smoothing than the '08 data, which I can't find the source of.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:24
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TEAYCHES posted:people dont like her, she comes across as tone deaf in both the macro campaign (she just now apologized for the email thing lmao) and micro (good example of where she gave a stump speech to a bunch of college kids and bombed) also shes a horrific fake and i cant wait to see her fail at securing the nomination a second time in a row With all due respect, I have no idea what you are talking about.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:24
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:hes doing better than obama was at this same point in the election against the same opponent, but hm, lets not be too hasty - The Very Serious People he's doing better in one specific metric, and much much worse in a number of others
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Sep 12, 2015 02:25
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euphronius posted:With all due respect, I have no idea what you are talking about. you mean the time she lost the primary in '08?? was a p. big deal but you are a d&d person so i can understand if this isnt pedantic enough of a point about how garbage clinton is as a candidate
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Sep 12, 2015 02:26
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TEAYCHES posted:you mean the time she lost the primary in '08?? was a p. big deal but you are a d&d person so i can understand if this isnt a pedantic enough of a point about how garbage clinton is as a candidate She lost to Obama who is a better politician. Sanders is no Obama.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:27
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euphronius posted:She lost to Obama who is a better politician. Sanders is no Obama. so why exactly is she already losing to sanders in iowa and new hampshire at an even earlier stage
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Sep 12, 2015 02:28
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TEAYCHES posted:so why exactly is she already losing to sanders in iowa and new hampshire at an even earlier stage awesmoe posted:he's doing better in one specific metric, and much much worse in a number of others
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Sep 12, 2015 02:29
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euphronius posted:She lost to Obama who is a better politician. Sanders is no Obama. sanders has managed to build up more popular support than obama had at this point in the election, without the benefit of free publicity from the debates. But He's Not Obama
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Sep 12, 2015 02:29
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also we should take this to the hillary vs sanders quarantine thread
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Sep 12, 2015 02:29
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:sanders has managed to build up more popular support than obama had at this point in the election, without the benefit of free publicity from the debates. But He's Not Obama Yes. Hes not Obama because he has no chance of ever winning the general election. Compared to a black man named Barack Hussein Obama.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:30
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TEAYCHES posted:so why exactly is she already losing to sanders in iowa and new hampshire at an even earlier stage Sanders only leads her in Iowa in a single poll, and only by 1%, on average she's still up 11 points, try harder
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Sep 12, 2015 02:30
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Mr Jaunts posted:Sanders only leads her in Iowa in a single poll, and only by 1%, on average she's still up 11 points, try harder A poll where Biden gets 12%
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Sep 12, 2015 02:31
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Mr Jaunts posted:Sanders only leads her in Iowa in a single poll, and only by 1%, on average she's still up 11 points, try harder once the upwards trend stops call me back, so far the data showing clinton falling and sanders gaining momentum is national
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Sep 12, 2015 02:31
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:hes doing better than obama was at this same point in the election against the same opponent, but hm, lets not be too hasty and compare them - The Very Serious People As if it was a proof that Trump was going to follow the exact same trend. But when you show a poll graph from 2008 it does NOT mean Bernie Sanders is going to follow the same trend. It's completely different.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:32
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Bernmentum.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:32
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I am sorry for asking a bernie vs hillary question thread I should have known better.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:33
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When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the Very Serious are all in confederacy against him.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:33
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euphronius posted:Bernmentum. could you take this to the quarantine thread so i can ask you why you support an uncharismatic war criminal who helped gently caress up libya horribly as secretary of state
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Sep 12, 2015 02:33
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"suck on this" -thomas friedman
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Sep 12, 2015 02:34
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the Very Serious are all in confederacy against him. hahahaha. Good point.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:34
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TEAYCHES posted:could you take this to the quarantine thread so i can ask you why you support an uncharismatic war criminal who helped gently caress up libya horribly as secretary of state I dont even like HRC, freund.
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Sep 12, 2015 02:35
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euphronius posted:I dont even like HRC, freund. ok you are just very serious and realistic, pragmatic d&d goon. got it
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Sep 12, 2015 02:36
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Will the news ever cover bernie?
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Sep 12, 2015 02:37
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Mr Jaunts posted:Sanders only leads her in Iowa in a single poll, and only by 1%, on average she's still up 11 points, try harder But you see, Sanders is leading in New Hampshire, and therefore is also leading in Iowa It's science fact
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Sep 12, 2015 02:37
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Can we just have a rule that you can't talk about who's going to win the Democratic nom in this thread?
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Sep 12, 2015 02:38
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